(01-31-2017 07:12 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 12:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Also this notion that no one is close to Akron is not supported by Kenpom either,also note that Akron has been dropping in these rankings even though they keep winning. That is something you might want to email Kenpom about to complain.

99 Akron
101 Ohio
112 EMU

Saturday morning Akron was 83. Roughly 20 spots better than Ohio at the time and ~30 spots better than EMU. These rankings greatly fluctuate day to day. Convenient to bring them up when they fit your narrative, but ignore them when they don't.

Akron is rated #2 in Kenpom in his "luck" category. That means Akron has outperforned that #99 grade. He calls it luck, but in reality it is a flaw in his ranking system as he was accurately able to capture the teams real performance.

Edit: You're NIU example is terrible. NIU was 5-3 in MAC during the 1st 8 games, meanwhile, Akron is 8-0 with a 3+ game lead over everyone. Also, if I'm counting right 4 of those wins were against non D-1 school so it was more so that you guys were 9-2. Not to mention the entire OOC was pretty much cupcakes.

Nobody here is saying SOS doesn't matter. What matters is Akron has played EMU and beat them. They have played Ohio and spanked them. They have played Buffalo and beat them. They have played CMU and beat them. The only team they haven't played that you can make the case for as being a top 4 MAC team is Ball State. Despite this they have a 3+ game lead over the entire conference and they look like a sure bet to run away with the conference regular season title.

Coach K at Toledo usually beats Akron at their own game... in the past 6 meetings I believe we are 4-2 and have won a couple in a row at Akron? I'm not saying this matters for your point, but I always have a good feeling when playing Akron. Just as I cringe to play EMU because they have our number.

---To Maddoggy---
Anyways... The fact of the matter is we get so bogged down in OOC when we shouldn't. It's playing the conference that should separate these squads, and as Kreed said NIU was 5-3 through 8 then went on a slide.

With that being said... at 13-2 going into the MAC, if no other teams had big wins or a gaudy win total? they should ABSOLUTELY be ranked #1 coming into the year!! IDC if it's predictive or not? They didn't do anything to show they did not belong with the other 9-5 or 10-4 teams coming into MAC play.

How was the predictive 2 weeks ago when Akron was ranked 5th and was 4-0....your prediction had them at 6-2 right now. We're about half way thru MAC play now and the smarter prediction would be having them #1 and going about 8-2 in the final 10 of the regular season.

(01-31-2017 12:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Also this notion that no one is close to Akron is not supported by Kenpom either,also note that Akron has been dropping in these rankings even though they keep winning. That is something you might want to email Kenpom about to complain.

99 Akron
101 Ohio
112 EMU

I still think KenPom is the best data-driven ranking system, but it's hardly one that is flawless.

Let's just look after tonight:

No. 99 Akron beats No. 189 NIU on the road by four. Akron gains two spots.

No. 101 Ohio loses to No. 222 WMU on the road by five. Ohio drops four spots.

No. 112 EMU loses to No. 157 Kent State at home by 6. EMU drops five spots.

That really doesn't make sense, especially since Akron actually dropped 5-6 spots by beating that same WMU team on the road just a week ago by 10 that the Bobcats lost to. But the teams dropped essentially the same number of spots? That is despite Akron winning by 10 and Ohio losing by 5. And Akron scored more points and gave up less against WMU than Ohio did.

Back to UofToledofans' point, seems like winning is secondary to the analytic stats. That's something, even as a guy who thinks there is a value in analytic stats, I have a problem with. While I think sites like KenPom (and even Maddawgz' rankings if you were to tweak it a bit) do add value, there comes a point where you can't look mainly at pure offensive/defensive/SOS ratings, and ignore wins and losses, to get a true picture. If that was the case, why even play individual games?

With all that said, I do think there is a lot of things you can take from pure analytical rankings, just think it's a flaw to make that 100 percent of your argument on why a team is ranked where it is.

Akron lost. Now they will be ranked #10 or 11.

(02-04-2017 02:39 PM)Blue N. Goldman Jr. Wrote:  Akron lost. Now they will be ranked #10 or 11.

lol even more bizarre, they are now #1! it took losing to get you to the top, yeah good ranking system! LOL

(02-06-2017 10:28 AM)bobcat_backer Wrote:  

(02-04-2017 02:39 PM)Blue N. Goldman Jr. Wrote:  Akron lost. Now they will be ranked #10 or 11.

lol even more bizarre, they are now #1! it took losing to get you to the top, yeah good ranking system! LOL

Couple of things happened, Akron did not drop much at all by losing because they had a pretty good SOS week. But their ascent was more due to EMU flopping against NIU