We need to win 2 of three in both series or sweep NE and win one at Hofstra and we come in no worse than second unless Delaware wins out. I didn't do a ton of analysis on this, but I think that I'm correct.

(05-07-2017 03:02 PM)TDenverFan Wrote:  What a must win game

Pay attention! They ALL are, especially the ones in week two.

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(05-08-2017 02:28 PM)Tribal Wrote:  

(05-07-2017 03:02 PM)TDenverFan Wrote:  What a must win game

Pay attention! They ALL are, especially the ones in week two.

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Unless W&M loses, in case it wasn't must win. Right?

(05-08-2017 02:28 PM)Tribal Wrote:  Pay attention! They ALL are, especially the ones in week two.

Actually, not to spoil your ongoing joke, but going back to week 1 of CAA play, it turns out that those games against UNCW really were "must win" (and we won only one of them although we coulda shoulda won three).

No problem -- we will win out and UNCW is bound to lose at least one game, right? Right?

(05-08-2017 11:21 PM)Zorch Wrote:  

(05-08-2017 02:28 PM)Tribal Wrote:  Pay attention! They ALL are, especially the ones in week two.

Actually, not to spoil your ongoing joke, but going back to week 1 of CAA play, it turns out that those games against UNCW really were "must win" (and we won only one of them although we coulda shoulda won three).

No problem -- we will win out and UNCW is bound to lose at least one game, right? Right?

They were never must wins. We lost most of those "must win" games last season, yet, somehow, won the CAA title. The chicken little mentality is fruitless.

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All we should care about is a bye. Matters not whether we come in first or not. What matters is having pitching. Also, we have more wins than any other team in the conference, and I'd say our out of conference schedule had to be one of the most difficult. So the season turned out okay so far. Can't swoon now. Having four pitchers with starting experience will be big.

This week William and Mary (28-21) comes in at 121 out of 299 in Massey's Composite Rankings, with RPI having them as high as 98 and Burrus having them as low as 134. This puts them in the company of Notre Dame, Purdue, Samford, and New Orleans. The rest of the CAA, which ranks 20th out of 31 conferences:

121 William and Mary
140 Wilmington
146 Delaware
147 Charleston
188 Northeastern
202 Elon
207 James Madison
252 Towson
277 Hofstra

What's the reason why NU and W&M are playing the only league game on Thursday and a DH on Friday?

(05-09-2017 12:53 PM)geewizNU Wrote:  What's the reason why NU and W&M are playing the only league game on Thursday and a DH on Friday?

Commencement on Saturday.

Today's game in stormy Williamsburg moved to noon to try and evade predicted heavy rain....which is also predicted for Friday into Saturday.

Graduation events are Sat & Sun, so no makeup possibilities there. If some or all are rained out do they play next week or are games gone forever.

Last year (I think, maybe before) there were one or two conference games just not played. This late in the season, maybe it could be made up on Monday/Tuesday since classes are over, but that's getting real close to the conference tourney as well. I'd assume as long as they play one or two a third one would not be rescheduled.

Baseball America released its top 200 prospects for the MLB Draft. Nick Raquet comes in at 134 and Cullen Large at 161. That would equal an end of fourth round and an end of fifth round selection, respectively.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/201...5gbFDel.97

Baseball America also put out their latest bracket and they have WM winning the CAA and heading to a Charlottesville regional to face UVA, Maryland, and ODU.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/p...UPcZKKt.97

Team drops soggy opener, 6-3. Left 10 men on base and pitching shaky in spots although we fanned 10
Huskies.

88 hardy fans attended, most of them relatives of the players.

Teams will try to squeeze in twinbill tomorrow, weather permitting, as rain is forecast into Saturday morning.

Once again, we crow too soon. The Tribe loses the first game at home today 6-3 to drop into 3rd in the conference. I am sure this means tomorrow is a must win doubleheader. The Tribe has played really well lately but today essentially lost the game early falling behind 4-0 in the top of the 1st. Likely the Tribe needs to win both tomorrow to have any real shot at the 2 seed given our final 3 at Hofstra while NU and UNCW are playing easier final opponents.

As we have learned in both basketball and football, prospective brackets mean nothing.

(05-09-2017 08:18 AM)Tribal Wrote:  

(05-08-2017 11:21 PM)Zorch Wrote:  

(05-08-2017 02:28 PM)Tribal Wrote:  Pay attention! They ALL are, especially the ones in week two.

Actually, not to spoil your ongoing joke, but going back to week 1 of CAA play, it turns out that those games against UNCW really were "must win" (and we won only one of them although we coulda shoulda won three). No problem -- we will win out and UNCW is bound to lose at least one game, right? Right?

They were never must wins. We lost most of those "must win" games last season, yet, somehow, won the CAA title. The chicken little mentality is fruitless.

Okay, now we have lost the first game to NE and as I write this we are losing 3-1 in the 9th in game two (oh great, and the feed just died with 1 out and the tying run at the plate -- usually that crap only happens at big moments of fb or bb games). So, Tribal, do you finally acknowledge that Game 3 is a "must win"?

Also, btw, stating that nothing is a must win because we came back and won the CAA tourney last year is totally irrelevant to this year. Last year was a fluke (it was great but it was still a miracle the way we came back -- we can't expect to do THAT every year). Now it looks like we might fall out of the top 2 -- and we have only ourselves to blame for losing to NE at home (and they came in having lost a bunch of games (at least 6) in a row). Seems like the baseball team always has to make things as hard as possible on themselves before pulling it out.

On the (slightly) plus side, I think the cancellation of today's second game guarantees us a spot in the conference tournament. Even if we get swept next week at Hofstra (which I certainly hope won't be the case!), we'll finish 12-11 in the conference and the best they can do is 12-12.

No guarantees, but I think this is correct.

(05-12-2017 03:46 PM)Blow Gym rat Wrote:  On the (slightly) plus side, I think the cancellation of today's second game guarantees us a spot in the conference tournament. Even if we get swept next week at Hofstra (which I certainly hope won't be the case!), we'll finish 12-11 in the conference and the best they can do is 12-12.

No guarantees, but I think this is correct.

I don't think it will come to that. However, if it did come to where one team would be admitted to the tournament and another team excluded based on only a half game then I think the league should require that game to be played. Someone should not lose out just based on having played one less or one more game.

The situation is similar to decide between the # 2 seed (who gets a bye) and the # 3 seed. However, in this case, I do not see the league requiring the game to be played. I do see that it is possible that the Tribe will miss out on the bye because of not having played (and won) the third game.

The truly irritating part of it is is that by Saturday afternoon the weather had broke and it looked like clear skies for an afternoon/evening doubleheader on Saturday and a nice day for Sunday (if this had been a normal weekend) or even a DH on Sunday.

William and Mary comes in at 132 out of 299 in this week's Massey's Composite Ranking, ranked as high as 112 by RPI and as low as 145 by Moore. This puts them in the company of Purdue, Pittsburgh, Xavier, and Middle Tennessee State. The rest of the CAA, which ranks 19th out of 31 conferences:

128 Charleston
132 William and Mary
134 Delaware
144 Wilmington
179 Northeastern
199 James Madison
205 Elon
258 Towson
278 Hofstra

This is what needs to happen for the Tribe to get a bye in the tournament:

1. Beat Hofstra three times on the road. Don't want to jinx them but since Hofstra is in last place and is the lowest ranked CAA team (see post immediately above), this might be the easiest part of the equation.

2. Charleston needs to beat Delaware one time (out of three). As long as W&M wins out then Charleston can not catch us. As long as Delaware loses one then they cannot catch us either. I can definitely see Charleston winning at least one of these games.

3. The hardest part. JMU needs to beat NE at least two times, on the road. I would have felt better about the chances of this if JMU had not lost their last game and Elon not beaten UNCW in their last game. That prevented JMU from possibly tying Elon with 11 wins and possibly allowing JMU into the tourney on tiebreakers (I have been too lazy to go back and look at how JMU/Elon did head-to-head). So, of course, we really cannot count on any help from JMU -- but we need to be prepared just in case we get it.

4. I suppose it is theoretically possible that Towson could take two from UNCW -- but I am not putting any money on it.

This is why the third game against NE getting rained out was a killer. If we had played and won that game then all we would need is for JMU to win 1 game against NE.