Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Thread Closed 
Which FBS or FCS schools will be the next to drop football?
Author Message
Stugray2 Online
1st String
*

Posts: 1,028
Joined: Jan 2017
Reputation: 39
I Root For: tOSU SJSU
Location:
Post: #31
RE: Which FBS or FCS schools will be the next to drop football?
Short term nobody. But the watch list should include:

Eastern Michigan -- students don't support at all, massive deficits, movement for D-II slowly gaining
New Mexico State -- budget pinching is to the point where something has to give, Need a conference in 5 years or drop
Eastern Illinois -- continuing Illinois budget crisis, declining enrollment

Next group is secure through early next decade but long term is shaky

San Jose State, Hawai'i, Portland State, UMass. Bowling Green State, some other Ohio MAC schools

The Cal State system is putting pressure on schools to stop transferring Institutional fund to athletics. Only SDSU is really somewhat solvent, the others are quietly transferring millions of higher education dollars to subsidize athletics. Student fees are not close to covering the shortfall in revenue. The States of Ohio and Michigan are looking into the subsidies for many schools at the 2nd tier. Individually they are not so horrible (except Cincinnati which is on a Rutgers like splurge to try and make P5), but as a group it's a really big number, well north of $100m annually.

So far the special interests lobby (boosters, athletic department personnel, sports reporters) have been able to put down the efforts to shut off deficit spending. But the amount of money they are siphoning off the institution continues to grow. The numbers are truly staggering nationally and in big States like California simply shockingly large -- so much is spend in California you could literally operate a new 25-30,000 student UC level university on it.

The list of programs that could be killed off will likely be 7-10x as many as actually pull the trigger and shut down. It is obviously easier in the North than the South for culture reasons (relative collective valuation of athletics versus education). But overall I would not want to predict who gets the axe. The Football lobby is extremely nasty to it's enemies, and so even in obvious cases like Eastern Michigan, Presidents are scared to death to make the move.
02-01-2017 06:14 PM
Find all posts by this user
chargeradio Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,513
Joined: Mar 2007
Reputation: 69
I Root For: ALA, KY, USA
Location: Louisville, KY
Post: #32
Which FBS or FCS schools will be the next to drop football?
The impetus may actually come from closure or merger of schools themselves, not the athletic programs. The obvious consolidation candidates:

Toledo/Bowling Green
Louisiana Tech/Louisiana-Monroe
Alabama A&M/Alabama-Huntsville
Alabama State/Auburn-Montgomery
02-02-2017 08:24 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
billybobby777 Offline
Fighting the cartel 5
*

Posts: 7,924
Joined: May 2013
Reputation: 306
I Root For: ECU, Army
Location: Houston dont sleepon
Post: #33
RE: Which FBS or FCS schools will be the next to drop football?
In Order:

New Mexico St: I predict they'll end their football program and focus on their above average Olympic sports programs. They are banking on a MWC invite that probably won't happen soon enough for them to survive. Too much pride to go FCS, nor would it even make sense as their isn't any FCS competition other than NAU in the region.

UMASS: again, they seem to be banking on a conference invite to survive (AAC) Terrible part of the country for college football. They could drop down to FCS if that invite never comes and be ok as they have a lot of history there and a recently fixed up OCS.

Louisiana Monroe/Louisiana Lafayette/Louisiana Tech: All 3 are heavily subsidized schools in a state that simply cannot afford to subsidize them for much longer. LT gets good fan support, but they are in such an awful far flung conference with games vs UTEP one week and Old Dominion the next. Monroe is toast first.

EMU: simply not enough local support in keeping the program. NCAA could force them out by simply enforcing their attendance rules. Their actual attendence numbers have been as low as a couple thousand for football games.

SJSU: California system money issues, no fan support, awful basketball that belongs in the Big West (tiny gym) had it not been for the MWC invite, they'd be gone already. No local support, and the foreign student body has not at all supported their schools athletics..

UAB: still hasn't solved the problem of the BOT not allowing them to build a stadium. Now has another FBS program in the state (South Alabama) to compete with for funds. Don't think they'll be bailed out next time there's a financial crisis. Had trouble surviving in a still decent CUSA with a tv contract and regional rivals. Can't imagine them surviving in a much worse CUSA environment with 1 rival (USM) left.

UTEP: I've heard some very startling reports there about the state of their program. Some cites listed their recruiting as LAST in the country yesterday. Even its Basketball was rated behind 335 programs in RPI. Fan support (which used to be great) has eroded. No solutions on how to pay to fire Tim Floyd and Sean Kuglar. UTSA, Texas St and North Texas moving up has destroyed their former recruiting grounds. Sun Bowl and facilities are in need of major repairs. No rivals left to play in CUSA. May need of a MWC invite where their historic rivals reside to survive this.

Cheers!
02-02-2017 10:57 PM
Find all posts by this user
DavidSt Online
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,938
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 63
I Root For: ATU, P7
Location:
Post: #34
RE: Which FBS or FCS schools will be the next to drop football?
I could see schools adding football in the future. There are plenty of them talking about adding the sport.
02-03-2017 06:37 AM
Find all posts by this user
arkstfan Away
Sorry folks
*

Posts: 19,906
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 558
I Root For: Fresh Starts
Location:
Post: #35
RE: Which FBS or FCS schools will be the next to drop football?
(02-02-2017 10:57 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Louisiana Monroe/Louisiana Lafayette/Louisiana Tech: All 3 are heavily subsidized schools in a state that simply cannot afford to subsidize them for much longer. LT gets good fan support, but they are in such an awful far flung conference with games vs UTEP one week and Old Dominion the next. Monroe is toast first.

Per USA Today (grain of salt)
43.6% of La.Tech's $22 million budget is via subsidy
35.24% of UL Lafayette's $23 million is via subsidy
$33.15% of UL Monroe's $13 million is via subsidy.

Now I don't know how long ULM can march on starvation wages but none of those subsidy percentages are that way out of line.
Tech has the highest percentage of the three but there are 40 other FBS schools pulling in higher subsidies
02-03-2017 08:36 AM
Find all posts by this user
The Cutter of Bish Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,666
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation: 60
I Root For: the little guy
Location:
Post: #36
RE: Which FBS or FCS schools will be the next to drop football?
(02-02-2017 10:57 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  UTEP: I've heard some very startling reports there about the state of their program. Some cites listed their recruiting as LAST in the country yesterday. Even its Basketball was rated behind 335 programs in RPI. Fan support (which used to be great) has eroded. No solutions on how to pay to fire Tim Floyd and Sean Kuglar. UTSA, Texas St and North Texas moving up has destroyed their former recruiting grounds. Sun Bowl and facilities are in need of major repairs. No rivals left to play in CUSA. May need of a MWC invite where their historic rivals reside to survive this.

They complain that they weren't asked to join MWC. They work feverishly to get back there. When they were finally approached, they rebuffed, considering the CUSA an equal. They come forward again, with Rice, and are turned away.

I don't know if shuttering is in their future, but that's a rocky path they've taken...and this information doesn't help frame them any better.

Quote:I'm not seeing how Kent State drops it. Kent State is close to fully endowing all of their athletic scholarships, and has 10K enrollment in their 7 regional branch campuses on top of their 30K at the main campus, so it doesn't seem like it is going to be "force to" drop it if it doesn't want to, and without a compelling BBall conference upgrade on offer, it doesn't seem like it will want to.

That's a good funding strategy. To me, in some of these states, the mission and funding structure for some of these schools are likely to be hit pretty hard over the upcoming years. For schools with deeper pockets and sturdy funding lines, operations will continue as normal, but those others...maybe not so great. It's good to hear about Kent State. I knew folks at BG...it wasn't so great out there.
02-03-2017 09:14 AM
Find all posts by this user
billybobby777 Offline
Fighting the cartel 5
*

Posts: 7,924
Joined: May 2013
Reputation: 306
I Root For: ECU, Army
Location: Houston dont sleepon
Post: #37
RE: Which FBS or FCS schools will be the next to drop football?
(02-03-2017 09:14 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  [quote='billybobby777' pid='14058851' dateline='1486094248']
UTEP: I've heard some very startling reports there about the state of their program. Some cites listed their recruiting as LAST in the country yesterday. Even its Basketball was rated behind 335 programs in RPI. Fan support (which used to be great) has eroded. No solutions on how to pay to fire Tim Floyd and Sean Kuglar. UTSA, Texas St and North Texas moving up has destroyed their former recruiting grounds. Sun Bowl and facilities are in need of major repairs. No rivals left to play in CUSA. May need of a MWC invite where their historic rivals reside to survive this.

They complain that they weren't asked to join MWC. They work feverishly to get back there. When they were finally approached, they rebuffed, considering the CUSA an equal. They come forward again, with Rice, and are turned away.

I don't know if shuttering is in their future, but that's a rocky path they've taken...and this information doesn't help frame them any better.

UTEP being ranked last in the country in recruiting class on Wednesday was bad, but what's worse is its the 4th straight year they've had the worst recruiting in FBS. UTEP always looked West for recruits because they played WAC schedules. Then CUSA happened for them and they started focusing on Dallas and continued recruiting South Texas, SA area. That dog won't hunt anymore because fellow CUSAers UTSA and Texas St are getting all those guys. Dallas? There's the Big 12 texhoma 6, and Arkansas of course. They used to be able to fight with SMU, Houston and Tulsa and Tulane for the leftovers. Not anymore. Those 4 are in the AAC. That leaves one school that UTEP used to be way above, and now shares a conference with: North Texas. Look at UNT's recruits, then UTEP's. UTEP is getting killed for recruits by UNT. If UTEP really did turn down a MWC invite to stay in a rival less far flung CUSA full of start up programs...I hope the person who made that call has been fired. If he/she is still employed at UTEP, I predict UTEP drops their FBS program soon. I never thought I'd be saying this but like I said, I've been hearing some startling things from my Miner booster buddy in El Paso.
Cheers!
02-03-2017 01:19 PM
Find all posts by this user
MinerInWisconsin Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,520
Joined: Apr 2004
Reputation: 221
I Root For: UTEP, of course
Location: The Frozen Tundra
Post: #38
RE: Which FBS or FCS schools will be the next to drop football?
(02-03-2017 01:19 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(02-03-2017 09:14 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  [quote='billybobby777' pid='14058851' dateline='1486094248']
UTEP: I've heard some very startling reports there about the state of their program. Some cites listed their recruiting as LAST in the country yesterday. Even its Basketball was rated behind 335 programs in RPI. Fan support (which used to be great) has eroded. No solutions on how to pay to fire Tim Floyd and Sean Kuglar. UTSA, Texas St and North Texas moving up has destroyed their former recruiting grounds. Sun Bowl and facilities are in need of major repairs. No rivals left to play in CUSA. May need of a MWC invite where their historic rivals reside to survive this.

They complain that they weren't asked to join MWC. They work feverishly to get back there. When they were finally approached, they rebuffed, considering the CUSA an equal. They come forward again, with Rice, and are turned away.

I don't know if shuttering is in their future, but that's a rocky path they've taken...and this information doesn't help frame them any better.

UTEP being ranked last in the country in recruiting class on Wednesday was bad, but what's worse is its the 4th straight year they've had the worst recruiting in FBS. UTEP always looked West for recruits because they played WAC schedules. Then CUSA happened for them and they started focusing on Dallas and continued recruiting South Texas, SA area. That dog won't hunt anymore because fellow CUSAers UTSA and Texas St are getting all those guys. Dallas? There's the Big 12 texhoma 6, and Arkansas of course. They used to be able to fight with SMU, Houston and Tulsa and Tulane for the leftovers. Not anymore. Those 4 are in the AAC. That leaves one school that UTEP used to be way above, and now shares a conference with: North Texas. Look at UNT's recruits, then UTEP's. UTEP is getting killed for recruits by UNT. If UTEP really did turn down a MWC invite to stay in a rival less far flung CUSA full of start up programs...I hope the person who made that call has been fired. If he/she is still employed at UTEP, I predict UTEP drops their FBS program soon. I never thought I'd be saying this but like I said, I've been hearing some startling things from my Miner booster buddy in El Paso.
Cheers!

I really don't think things are that bad at UTEP. We do need an AD that is willing to pull the trigger on under performing coaches a lot quicker. To be fair to the football coach, he cleaned house his first year and so was undermanned in that first campaign, 2-10. His second year was 7-5 plus a loss in the New Mexico Bowl. Third year was 5-7, including a late missed field goal vs La Tech which would have made the Miners bowl eligible in an injury plagued year that saw 17 starters out for part or all of the season. This past year was 4-8 and that failure should have been reason for firing imo. So he has one year left on his contract to prove he can produce a winner.

The AD was interviewed within the last month and is working on a renovation project for the Sun Bowl stadium. When he raises a certain percentage of the overall $50 million upgrade, the work can begin. He also is happy with the 15-16k FB season ticket holders and 5-6k MBB season ticket holders. Facilities at UTEP are very good.

Whether the recruiting rankings prove out, I don't know, but year 2 of his tenure and his 2016 season ending 52-24 win over North Texas and his 5 OT win at UTSA shows that the team is not bereft of talent.

If UTEP can survive the awful football teams it had in the 70's and early 80's and keep a reasonably sized fan base, it can surely survive now. I see nothing that threatens UTEP football.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2017 03:32 PM by MinerInWisconsin.)
02-03-2017 02:03 PM
Find all posts by this user
UTEPDallas Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,623
Joined: Oct 2004
Reputation: 106
I Root For: UTEP
Location: Dallas, TX
Post: #39
RE: Which FBS or FCS schools will be the next to drop football?
UTEP is not going anywhere. Its chances of dropping football are as big as East Carolina's which is zero. UTEP will always have the advantages that the vast majority of G5 schools wish they have: a solid fan support, no P5 schools and pro teams nearby, a near monopoly in coverage in the El Paso media, the backing of the El Paso business community and the entire town as well. UTEP's issues are internal not external (hint: a complacent AD) but the foundation is there for a new AD to take it to the next level. UTEP could be in the MWC and the record in both FB and BB would be the same or worse. Conference affiliation helps in many ways but as Boise State proved in the WAC and Gonzaga in the WCC, a weak conference and geography can't keep you from achieving success. As much as we complain about C-USA, we just need to look at our neighbor 45 miles away to see that we're thankful that at least we have a conference to call home.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2017 04:19 PM by UTEPDallas.)
02-03-2017 04:17 PM
Find all posts by this user
_C2_ Offline
The King of Overanalysis
*

Posts: 16,871
Joined: Feb 2008
Reputation: 346
I Root For: Houston
Location: Near Seawall Town
Post: #40
RE: Which FBS or FCS schools will be the next to drop football?
That and the facilities. UTEP plays in a stadium good enough to house an NFL team on a short term basis if need be. It hosts a major bowl game and the basketball arena is solid to boot. UTEP will be fine.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2017 09:07 PM by _C2_.)
02-03-2017 04:23 PM
Find all posts by this user
Thread Closed 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2017 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2017 MyBB Group.