NJDuke97
Heisman
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RE: JMU @ Delaware Hoops
(02-03-2017 10:27 AM)Dukes84 Wrote: (01-30-2017 12:52 PM)NJDuke97 Wrote: (01-30-2017 11:09 AM)Dukes84 Wrote: (01-30-2017 09:18 AM)NJDuke97 Wrote: 84, not to call you out but in reviewing some of John98's negative posts about JMU I came across this post from you last year when Curry was rumored to be out for the season with a knee injury. How come last year under Brady JMU would have been lucky to win 2-3 games with the supporting cast and this season you and others are downplaying the loss of Curry and falling back on the fact that JMU since they won 20 games last year and return 7 seniors that they have drastically underperformed? Seems like the tone of your message last year was that the season was over and JMU couldn't compete without Curry. I think you guys have exhibited prejudice to Rowe because he's a first time head coach and you were attached to Brady. Plain and Simple. Double standard.
RE: JMU @ CoC predictions
Let me just make a few disparate points based on this thread.
1. Nation is right....be happy with the season to this point. If Curry is done, Dukes will be lucky to win a couple more games rest of the way.
2. A 20 win season is still a benchmark in my book. If a team plays 30 games, that's a winning percentage of .667. Dukes are currently playing at a .731 pace or so. The most games JMU has ever won in a season is 24, I believe, back in 1981-82. The second most is 21, if I'm not mistaken, which JMU has achieved three times under Brady. JMU should surpass that this season if Curry can return healthy. How many times has JMU won 20 games in a season? We should look that up.
3. Dukes' Kenpom rating in the high 70s is the best at any point in the Brady era, including 2011.
4. CofC's home record of 10-3 was second best in CAA heading into tonight, and included wins over NE, LSU and Hofstra. As Hart pointed out, they were 11th nationally defensively and had put together 5 wins in their previous 6 games, I believe it was.
5. Dukes' field goal percentage defense, as per the announcers, was 24th nationally coming into the game and I know that I've read their three point field goal percentage is rated even higher than that nationally.
6. In the ebb and flow of a game, there are going to be breakdowns, flubs, miscues, etc. The final result is what matters, of course. Basketball, by its very nature, is a game of runs. Having said that, Brady is correct in saying that the team needs to play better at the end of the first half and beginning of the second.
7. I think that Brady, contrary to what some might say, has well utilized the talent of this team. This team has one excellent player in Curry and then a bunch of supporting guys, none of whom brings consistent production to the table. A team like Hofstra, for example, has five guys averaging in double figures. JMU's formula is a more difficult one.
8. Yes....it was a good win.
97 --
I'm generally a nice guy, but I'm also not stupid. You're taking this out of context. If you'll read what I said again, I said they'd be lucky to win a couple of games the rest of the season, right? If you'll recall, Curry got hurt last year in the CofC game on the road, which the Dukes ended up winning, giving them a record of 19-7 overall, 9-4 in the CAA. (A bit different from the current record of 6-17.) How many games did they win the rest of the way? Two, so I was spot on. Here were the results following that statement:
@UNCW L 78-68
NE L 95-94
DE W 75-50
@Towson L 69-67
W&M W 71-65
W&M L 79-64
I never said the team would only win 2 games during the course of an entire season without him. To compare that statement to what's occurred this season is flat-out wrong.
Rowe was hired in early April and had a chance to fill two scholarships, knowing that Curry and Grays were moving on and that the team needed help at point guard. He also knew that Ramone Snowden, a transfer from Niagara, would be eligible to play. Snowden, incidentally, had averaged about 11 points and 6 rebounds a game there as a sophomore. He inherited a team with 7 seniors and 2 juniors, the 4th most experienced team in the country. Brown was a preseason second-team all CAA selection and Dalembert was honorable mention. The cupboard was not bare when he arrived.
The team was picked as a top 110 team by at least one reputable publication and a number of others had them in the top half of the league. And look at the results so far? A 1-11 start, having difficulty beating a D-3 team at home (tied at the half as I recall), followed by a short spurt of success and 6 of 7 more losses and the suspension of two assistant coaches.
I'm critical of Rowe because he hasn't shown me anything as a coach and he's replacing a guy that had won 19 or more games 5 times in 8 seasons after inheriting a team with 8 straight losing seasons. It was much easier to be patient with Brady because he won 21 games in his first season, not 6 or 8. It was also easier because he had a long and distinguished coaching record prior to coming to JMU, primarily as an assistant but also as a head coach that had turned around a losing program quickly.
I've watched enough basketball over many years to discern when a team is well-coached and playing to its ability. If you don't believe me, look at the stats over the course of this season and the record, of course. At one point, this team was turning the ball over in 25% of its possessions! They were among the 20 lowest scoring teams in the country! Now, the defense the last couple of games has opened up like a sieve. Rowe is now the head coach and he has to take responsibility for this season.
97, in closing, why don't you tell us why you think he's such an excellent coach since my opinions and comments are totally off-base and biased, as you say?
84, my point was that you referred to the returning players as "supporting none of whom brings consistent production to the table" when Brady was coaching them. Yet this year it's they were 2nd and 3rd team CAA and we use their averages to show a decline (even though if you look at their game logs and watched the games you know that they were inconsistent).
I know the comment was made toward the end of the season but you were using this as a reason why they would be fortunate to win a couple of more games (without Curry). I can only assume you would have thought they had no shot in CAAT with Brady at the helm and no Curry either. As it turned out they had no shot in the CAAT with Brady at the helm and a healthy Ron Curry.
Did you feel the same way about Keener in his first season or was it that he took over for Dillard who had a losing tenure instead of Rowe taking over for Brady who had a slightly above .500% record as JMU coach?
BTW I don't think Rowe is an excellent coach. We don't know if Lou Rowe is a bad coach, good coach, awful coach, or terrific coach yet- despite what the experts on here will tell you about his offense, defense, etc. What I do know is that the team has for the most part competed and that they don't have a ton of talent despite the fact that they have a lot of experience. Some of that is on Rowe for the players who brought in (or pushed out) during his first off season/recruiting cycle as head coach.
"Brady is correct in saying that the team needs to play better at the end of the first half and beginning of the second." Your words 84.
Earlier in the season- Lou Rowe's first as a head coach- this type of trend was used to point out that he was a bad coach. With Brady it was about the players needing to play better closing out the half or opening the second half. With Rowe it's an indictment of him as a head coach. I get the difference in perspective. Rowe is new so it's easy to blame him for everything while Matt Brady was more established and got more rope but that's my point. Just because I get it doesn't mean that it's a fair way to view Rowe as a head coach. I maintain that you really won't be able to judge Rowe until the roster turns over.
97 --
You are deluding yourself if you think that Rowe has demonstrated that he's a good coach this season with a record of 6-18, 5-18 against D-1 competition. And he's accomplished that with 7 seniors and 2 juniors. Going into the season he had plenty of scoring options with Shakir Brown, Yohanny Dalembert, Jackson Kent, Joey McLean, Serb, Vodo and Ramone Snowden. Now we've seen that Paulius Satkus and Ivan Lukic can also score. What we haven't seen is the implementation of offensive and defensive systems that play to the players' strengths and puts them in a position to succeed. He's the coach and therefore he's responsible for how the team performs. This same group of guys won 21 games a year ago.
If one were to rate where Rowe stands within the CAA as a coach, I would put him 10th out of 10. I'd also rate him as the worst coach in the history of JMU basketball, behind including Dean Keener, who can actually cite some accomplishments as a coach.
For whatever reason (and I call it spin), you're unable to criticize him and everything is the players' fault, according to you. This team has failed miserably and the onus is on him.
84, there is plenty of blame to go around for this season's performance- admin, prior coaching staff, current coaching staff, current players. Where I differ with you is fundamentally I believe you are putting too much on Rowe. Has this team quit on the coach or continued to compete? Has the team continued to play relatively tough defense and rebound? I'd be more concerned if the defense was lapse.
The reality is that the roster isn't very strong. It's why JMU by multiple media publications and the coaches within the league was picked to finish 5th or 6th this season. Did the fact that Rowe was an unknown first year head coach factor into those prognostications? I'm sure it did a little. But you can't say that the prior JMU teams (with Brady and Curry) garnered a ton of respect in similar polls and in reality the team finished 4th the last 2 seasons in conference. There is a reason why people pick us 5th and 6th. They know that the roster isn't that talented. There are too many of the same types of players. JMU has size but little else. It's why I would have liked to see Rowe bring back Morgan and push out a big but in hind sight Lukic probably would have been the guy and he has played well so if we could go back in time I would have pushed out Vodo or Serb in favor of Morgan just because I think the roster is really lacking guards and Morgan could have helped. There aren't any players who can regularly get their own shot or beat guys on offense. He wasn't very good but he could drive and make things happen on defense and I think it was a mistake not to bring him back (aside from the fact that it was a pretty sh*tty thing that Morgan got pushed out after red shirting and then barely playing last year).
You can point to the returning Seniors all you want- look at their game logs in conference last year and count the number of double digit scoring performances they had. Curry's 20+ ppg in conference made up for a lack of a reliable 2nd and 3rd scorer last year. There was an assumption that Brown and others would step up to fill that void. Kent Satkius and Lukic have but its often not enough and the team caps out at 60-65 points per game. Brown is starting to play a little better but watch the games and tell me where Rowe is restricting Shaq Brown or Serb or Snowden. What offensive system should he be playing (without a good Point Guard) that would give these guys more open shots? I think they are getting ample opportunities they are either not pulling the trigger on them or not converting.
I agree with another poster- it's likely that Lou Rowe isn't a great coach because if he was he would have found a way to win more games this year. It is likely that JMU would have had a better record under Brady if he stayed this season. That doesn't mean that Lou Rowe is an awful coach, the worst JMU coach ever, or that he won't realize success at JMU. Having gone through this season I am still more confident that Rowe (with 7 open scholarships going into next season) is the better leader for the program. Brady's track record in terms of recruits was very spotty. Would Brady have the commits for next year that Rowe does? We'll never know but given Brady's track record I'd say maybe he'd have Jacobs (parents went to JMU) along with Shepherd next year he probably wouldn't have Scissum or Mosely on the roster and he likely wouldn't have the other 3 commits. He'd fill in the roster with under the radar guys or Euros. That formula was enough for JMU to be competitive (fringe top 100 program) but was never going to get it done in terms of the CAA Tournament. Lou Rowe has 4 solid recruits for next year (3 of which are DMV kids from good programs that Brady never recruited). That is how JMU MBB will have a shot at being successful again. I trust Rowe's ability to recruit better players to JMU so that we can finish higher than 4th in conference and actually be a team that people pick to finish first or second in league based on their knowledge of the game and the fact that good players/athletes make all of the difference. Solid not extraordinary Xs and Os can only take you so far.
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2017 09:03 AM by NJDuke97.)
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