Charlotte - 3, 2, 1
Three Observations
1) The Monarchs miss Brandan Stith. While Davis was certainly the one to kill us, and Ajukwa made some big shots, Charlotte was able to get key contributions from Reid Aube, who usually averages about 8 minutes per game. I feel confident that Charlotte would have been much less effective in the paint, if Stith had played. Furthermore, the absence of Stith is exaggerated by Porter's (and Taylor's) inability to stay out of early foul trouble. Those two guys simply have to play more disciplined, especially early in the game.
2) The Monarchs must find a way to defend the dribble drive. Losing Baker (and not having Stith) certainly hurt in this area, but the team simply must do a better job of not fouling out of control drivers. Charlotte went to the line 19 times in the first half. That's hard to overcome, especially when the team you're defending is making 85% of the freebies.
3) The Monarchs simply have to find additional help. 12 players played. 7 of them combined for 5 field goal attempts (4 of them by Haynes). But, Fields and Pinckney combined for 22 minutes and they had 0 points, 0 shots, 0 assists, 0 steals, and 1 rebound. With Stith injured, Baker relegated to the locker room, Porter saddled with foul trouble, and BJ having one of his "off" games, the Monarchs were literally left with two offensive options. That's simply not enough.
Two questions
1) Now what? This was the first of three straight away from the Ted. The next one is at a Rice squad that gave ODU all it could handle here. What will the mental state be? This road trip is an absolute must if the goal is still a top 4 finish.
2) Will Brandan play, and if so, how effective will he be? Brandan was a defensive menace and really assisted in preventing Evans from killing the Monarchs on the drive. How healthy will he be? It will be a key to this game.
One prediction
1) Honestly, I'm just not sure. Unlike the La Tech game, I wasn't disappointed in the effort. But, the defensive execution wasn't great. At the TED, ODU made life difficult for Rice with tremendous defensive execution, but I'm not sure Rice will shoot under 25% from deep again. My head tells me to be prepared to be disappointed, but my heart says, the Monarchs will find a way and win by 5.
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