The theme of this week in my rankings is "The East Strikes Back". All MAC East times on the move up, all MAC West teams steady or on the way down. SOS is a big driver here keeping EMU at the top spot and nudging Buffalo in a virtual tie with Akron for number 2. CMU drops to 6, no changes in spots 7-12.

(01-22-2017 01:11 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  The theme of this week in my rankings is "The East Strikes Back". All MAC East times on the move up, all MAC West teams steady or on the way down. SOS is a big driver here keeping EMU at the top spot and nudging Buffalo in a virtual tie with Akron for number 2. CMU drops to 6, no changes in spots 7-12.

As a UB fan I love seeing us at two...but we are in no way the second best team in the league right now.

Realtime RPI.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

#40 Akron
#109 EMU
#110 OU

Kenpom
#83 Akron
#97 Ohio
#103 EMU

Sargarin
#82 Akron
#100 Ohio
#115 EMU

BPI
#75 Akron
#85 Ohio
#94 EMU

Toledo was beat by 20 by each of the three behind us... EXPLAIN THIS STUPID SYSTEM TO ME!? 2 of our wins were to the bottom two teams!!

Maddawgz, I think you finally have the top four correct, though I disagree with the order. I would have it:

1. Akron: I'll just let the record speak for itself. Plus, despite the record, this team still hasn't come close to playing its best basketball.

2. Eastern Michigan: As a collection of talent, EMU is as good as anybody; and the 2-3 is a look that gives them an advantage as it's a defensive system only they play in the league. I just don't think the talent is cohesive, nor do I think Rob Murphy is on the level of Keith Dambrot or Saul Phillips.

3. Ohio: Would be No. 2 with Campbell, but this team will stay in the mix ... as talented as Campbell is, the Bobcats were never reliant, at least offensively on him as say Akron is with Isaiah Johsnon, so it's a loss I think they can recover from. And it looks like guys have already started to step up (Laster, Carter, Taylor).

4. Buffalo: Recent history shows you can't count the Bulls out in Cleveland. It's a team that is similar to EMU in that it has a nice collection of talent, but is lacking cohesiveness.

Anyway, I do appreciate taking the time to put together your system, whether people on here agree with it or not.

I'm just curious, you obviously follow the league enough where you would have enough eye test/results test information to make a non analytic opinion on rankings. Would your "eye test" rankings resemble the rankings of your system at this point?

Watched the Western Michigan Buffalo game yesterday and if there are two worst teams in the league they are hiding under a rock. Probably the worst basketball game I have ever seen. Western coach riding one good year and one 10 years ago with kids that another coach recruited. They will be losers as long as Hawkins is there.
On the other hand, Buffalo looked like they were totally lost in the game. A terrible display of basketball.

(01-22-2017 04:52 PM)65Bronco Wrote:  Watched the Western Michigan Buffalo game yesterday and if there are two worst teams in the league they are hiding under a rock. Probably the worst basketball game I have ever seen. Western coach riding one good year and one 10 years ago with kids that another coach recruited. They will be losers as long as Hawkins is there.
On the other hand, Buffalo looked like they were totally lost in the game. A terrible display of basketball.

Yeah, it was a pathetic game. WMU missed, what, 20 shots in a row at one point in the second half? Still Buffalo, only made up about 8 points over that stretch ... down 2 to up 6, IIR.

(01-22-2017 04:30 PM)Wadszip Wrote:  Maddawgz, I think you finally have the top four correct, though I disagree with the order. I would have it:

1. Akron: I'll just let the record speak for itself. Plus, despite the record, this team still hasn't come close to playing its best basketball.

2. Eastern Michigan: As a collection of talent, EMU is as good as anybody; and the 2-3 is a look that gives them an advantage as it's a defensive system only they play in the league. I just don't think the talent is cohesive, nor do I think Rob Murphy is on the level of Keith Dambrot or Saul Phillips.

3. Ohio: Would be No. 2 with Campbell, but this team will stay in the mix ... as talented as Campbell is, the Bobcats were never reliant, at least offensively on him as say Akron is with Isaiah Johsnon, so it's a loss I think they can recover from. And it looks like guys have already started to step up (Laster, Carter, Taylor).

4. Buffalo: Recent history shows you can't count the Bulls out in Cleveland. It's a team that is similar to EMU in that it has a nice collection of talent, but is lacking cohesiveness.

Anyway, I do appreciate taking the time to put together your system, whether people on here agree with it or not.

I'm just curious, you obviously follow the league enough where you would have enough eye test/results test information to make a non analytic opinion on rankings. Would your "eye test" rankings resemble the rankings of your system at this point?

Thanks! I would have to say my eyetest would probably be what you have there also. Kent State I probably would have just outside the top 4 (maybe 5 or 6) and higher than what my ranking showed. I just feel like they have so much talent on that team, but maybe not diversified enough type of players with different skill sets. I feel like EMU might have the most overall talent but they just can't seem to bring it together. Has Thompson IV regressed a little this year?

(01-22-2017 04:30 PM)Wadszip Wrote:  Maddawgz, I think you finally have the top four correct, though I disagree with the order. I would have it:

1. Akron: I'll just let the record speak for itself. Plus, despite the record, this team still hasn't come close to playing its best basketball.

2. Eastern Michigan: As a collection of talent, EMU is as good as anybody; and the 2-3 is a look that gives them an advantage as it's a defensive system only they play in the league. I just don't think the talent is cohesive, nor do I think Rob Murphy is on the level of Keith Dambrot or Saul Phillips.

3. Ohio: Would be No. 2 with Campbell, but this team will stay in the mix ... as talented as Campbell is, the Bobcats were never reliant, at least offensively on him as say Akron is with Isaiah Johsnon, so it's a loss I think they can recover from. And it looks like guys have already started to step up (Laster, Carter, Taylor).

4. Buffalo: Recent history shows you can't count the Bulls out in Cleveland. It's a team that is similar to EMU in that it has a nice collection of talent, but is lacking cohesiveness.

Anyway, I do appreciate taking the time to put together your system, whether people on here agree with it or not.

I'm just curious, you obviously follow the league enough where you would have enough eye test/results test information to make a non analytic opinion on rankings. Would your "eye test" rankings resemble the rankings of your system at this point?

Agreed. I don't get the angst people have with this. He developed a formula to have an objective ranking rather than arbitrarily throwing the teams in an order like everyone else does. Like any analytic, the more data available the more accurate the final conclusions will be. As the MAC season wears on I think these rankings will begin to resemble the MAC standings more and more. Obviously the biggest flaw right now is Akron not being number one, but in due time I'm sure that will happen. That's the thing with actually having a formula, is that you don't simply abandon it as soon as the results don't match up with the eye test. Personally I find it interesting, even if I don't agree with the final results each week....

(01-23-2017 10:36 AM)eich41 Wrote:  

(01-22-2017 04:30 PM)Wadszip Wrote:  Maddawgz, I think you finally have the top four correct, though I disagree with the order. I would have it:

1. Akron: I'll just let the record speak for itself. Plus, despite the record, this team still hasn't come close to playing its best basketball.

2. Eastern Michigan: As a collection of talent, EMU is as good as anybody; and the 2-3 is a look that gives them an advantage as it's a defensive system only they play in the league. I just don't think the talent is cohesive, nor do I think Rob Murphy is on the level of Keith Dambrot or Saul Phillips.

3. Ohio: Would be No. 2 with Campbell, but this team will stay in the mix ... as talented as Campbell is, the Bobcats were never reliant, at least offensively on him as say Akron is with Isaiah Johsnon, so it's a loss I think they can recover from. And it looks like guys have already started to step up (Laster, Carter, Taylor).

4. Buffalo: Recent history shows you can't count the Bulls out in Cleveland. It's a team that is similar to EMU in that it has a nice collection of talent, but is lacking cohesiveness.

Anyway, I do appreciate taking the time to put together your system, whether people on here agree with it or not.

I'm just curious, you obviously follow the league enough where you would have enough eye test/results test information to make a non analytic opinion on rankings. Would your "eye test" rankings resemble the rankings of your system at this point?

Agreed. I don't get the angst people have with this. He developed a formula to have an objective ranking rather than arbitrarily throwing the teams in an order like everyone else does. Like any analytic, the more data available the more accurate the final conclusions will be. As the MAC season wears on I think these rankings will begin to resemble the MAC standings more and more. Obviously the biggest flaw right now is Akron not being number one, but in due time I'm sure that will happen. That's the thing with actually having a formula, is that you don't simply abandon it as soon as the results don't match up with the eye test. Personally I find it interesting, even if I don't agree with the final results each week....

It's slowly but finally beginning to look better, however, I'm not sure how it's mathematically possible for Akron not to be #1 since they are a runaway #1 in every other rating system (I'm guessing it's because of how he calculates offensive efficiency as I will concede EMU is a better defensive team, but no way is EMU a better offensive team than Akron). The thing is I could have told you back in July the top 4 teams would be Akron, Ohio, Buffalo, and EMU and this is just now catching up with everything we all knew.

I can't speak for the entire community, but my personal angst was from him vehemently defending his rating of having Akron/Ohio in the 5-7 range, meanwhile, having a 1-4 CMU at #2. Anyone with 2 eyes could see that shouldn't have been. Had he come out and acknowledged the fact his formula was flawed at that stage, I would have moved on.

I do feel JTIV isn't playing as well as last year. I also thought he regressed some during the latter say 1/3 of 2016/17, for whatever reasons, e.g., wore down, MAC coaches adapted, etc.

Besides foul trouble, he gets double and triple team. To me, his success is/will be handling it well. It could be his hook before the double gets there OR kicking it out as the double team comes at him. When he has the ball and triple teamed, turnover possible.

Thompson doesn't get the ball enough. He's been about as good as he was last year, maybe even a little better with finishing inside. Last year, he scored tons of unassisted points, which meant put-backs. This year, when he gets it in the post, he's finishing. Hook shot improved greatly.

The problem is, our guards play too much "hero ball" at the end of games, and Thompson stops getting touches. We've been a little better since Ty Toney returned from injury, so hopefully that trend continues. It's on Murphy to get him the ball more.

Until Thompson learns how to control his temper he is not going to make a significant impact for EMU on a regular basis. He was very lucky the right hook he threw on a rebound in the Akron game didn't connect. Murphy was wise in sitting him on the bench for a large part of the second half.

(01-23-2017 04:09 PM)hilltopper Wrote:  Until Thompson learns how to control his temper he is not going to make a significant impact for EMU on a regular basis. He was very lucky the right hook he threw on a rebound in the Akron game didn't connect. Murphy was wise in sitting him on the bench for a large part of the second half.

While I agree that he needs to control his temper in certain situations, it has virtually nothing to do with making a "significant impact on a regular basis". I personally like the chippiness...obviously when he's not throwing elbows or anything like that. He needs to be better at defending without fouling, as that has more of an impact than his "temper".

For someone who's takes the 4th or 5th most shots on the team, I'd say he makes a pretty significant impact quite often. Our coach needs to find more ways to get him the ball.