Current Record: 14-5 (4-2)

Remaining Games

UCF: 14-4 (5-1) with an RPI of 82 - W
@Temple: 10-10 (1-6) with an RPI of 74 - L
ECU: 9-10 (1-5) with an RPI of 218 - W
@USF: 6-11 (0-6) with an RPI of 267 - W
@UCF 14-4 (5-1) with an RPI of 82 - L
Tulsa: 10-7 (4-1) with an RPI of 118 - W
Temple: 10-10 (1-6) with an RPI of 74 - W
@UConn: 7-11 (2-4) with an RPI of 155 - W
@Cincinnati: 16-2 (6-0) with an RPI of 17 - L
Houston: 13-6 (4-3) with an RPI of 69 - W
Tulane: 4-14 (1-5) with an RPI of 253 - W
@SMU: 16-4 (6-1) with an RPI of 38 - L
AACT: Tulsa (#4 seed) - W
AACT: Cincinnati (#1 seed) - L

Final Record: 23-10 (13-7)

Can't lose: 6 games (Tulsa x2, ECU, @UConn, Tulane, @USF)
Must Split: 4 games (Temple & UCF)
House money: 4 games (Houston, @Cincinnati, @SMU, Cincinnati - neutral)

This is doable...probably not likely, but not ridiculous either. Need consistent play from the "Big 4" and wouldn't hurt if Chad were to get back healthy for the home stretch.

23-10 puts us squarely on the bubble - definitely an NIT team....likely host a few home games in that case. Would love to see us squeak into Dayton in this scenario.

Great breakdown. One more win than that (and one less loss) and I think we are on the right side of the bubble. I think this year's bubble will be relatively weak.

(01-20-2017 11:56 AM)MtownTigers916 Wrote:  Great breakdown. One more win than that (and one less loss) and I think we are on the right side of the bubble. I think this year's bubble will be relatively weak.

I think we're in with that scenario playing out AND us upsetting Cincinnati or SMU. Tall task...especially with our roster and depth. But Tubby has shown the ability to surprise us.

I think five more losses would leave us both out and not even on the bubble. Would suspect on more than three more losses, and even a third may be too much.

And...lord help us all.

Not to worry, actually even discussing this possibility is a very positive step for this program. This team is worth rooting for, unlike the last few years. I think a deep run in the NIT is better than a one and done in the NCAAs anyway, for this year's team.

The best thing about what Tubby is bringing is that one more really top player added to this team or two more good college players would make this team a top 25 team. The last few years, we had those players and were nothing.

Add Shaq or Austin or Adonis or Joe or even a Chris Crawford or Trashon Burrell to the team we have right now and we'd be 16-3 or better and expecting an AAC championship and hoping for a sweet sixteen.

Tubby might need until year 3, but I think we are heading back where we want to be.

I wouldnt underestimate the committee wanting another Tubby team in the tournament, either.

(01-20-2017 12:34 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  I wouldnt underestimate the committee wanting another Tubby team in the tournament, either.

Agreed. Benefit of the doubt goes his way.

(01-20-2017 01:42 PM)Penny Lane Wrote:  

(01-20-2017 11:47 AM)HometownTiger Wrote:  Current Record: 14-5 (4-2)

Remaining Games

UCF: 14-4 (5-1) with an RPI of 82 - W
@Temple: 10-10 (1-6) with an RPI of 74 - L
ECU: 9-10 (1-5) with an RPI of 218 - W
@USF: 6-11 (0-6) with an RPI of 267 - W
@UCF 14-4 (5-1) with an RPI of 82 - L
Tulsa: 10-7 (4-1) with an RPI of 118 - W
Temple: 10-10 (1-6) with an RPI of 74 - W
@UConn: 7-11 (2-4) with an RPI of 155 - W
@Cincinnati: 16-2 (6-0) with an RPI of 17 - L
Houston: 13-6 (4-3) with an RPI of 69 - W
Tulane: 4-14 (1-5) with an RPI of 253 - W
@SMU: 16-4 (6-1) with an RPI of 38 - L
AACT: Tulsa (#4 seed) - W
AACT: Cincinnati (#1 seed) - L

Final Record: 23-10 (13-7)

Can't lose: 6 games (Tulsa x2, ECU, @UConn, Tulane, @USF)
Must Split: 4 games (Temple & UCF)
House money: 4 games (Houston, @Cincinnati, @SMU, Cincinnati - neutral)

This is doable...probably not likely, but not ridiculous either. Need consistent play from the "Big 4" and wouldn't hurt if Chad were to get back healthy for the home stretch.

23-10 puts us squarely on the bubble - definitely an NIT team....likely host a few home games in that case. Would love to see us squeak into Dayton in this scenario.

NC SOS. Killer.

We need to win the Temple game and the UCF game to be in...even then we will be a low seed and maybe on the "last 4 in" page

(01-20-2017 01:42 PM)Penny Lane Wrote:  

(01-20-2017 11:47 AM)HometownTiger Wrote:  Current Record: 14-5 (4-2)

Remaining Games

UCF: 14-4 (5-1) with an RPI of 82 - W
@Temple: 10-10 (1-6) with an RPI of 74 - L
ECU: 9-10 (1-5) with an RPI of 218 - W
@USF: 6-11 (0-6) with an RPI of 267 - W
@UCF 14-4 (5-1) with an RPI of 82 - L
Tulsa: 10-7 (4-1) with an RPI of 118 - W
Temple: 10-10 (1-6) with an RPI of 74 - W
@UConn: 7-11 (2-4) with an RPI of 155 - W
@Cincinnati: 16-2 (6-0) with an RPI of 17 - L
Houston: 13-6 (4-3) with an RPI of 69 - W
Tulane: 4-14 (1-5) with an RPI of 253 - W
@SMU: 16-4 (6-1) with an RPI of 38 - L
AACT: Tulsa (#4 seed) - W
AACT: Cincinnati (#1 seed) - L

Final Record: 23-10 (13-7)

Can't lose: 6 games (Tulsa x2, ECU, @UConn, Tulane, @USF)
Must Split: 4 games (Temple & UCF)
House money: 4 games (Houston, @Cincinnati, @SMU, Cincinnati - neutral)

This is doable...probably not likely, but not ridiculous either. Need consistent play from the "Big 4" and wouldn't hurt if Chad were to get back healthy for the home stretch.

23-10 puts us squarely on the bubble - definitely an NIT team....likely host a few home games in that case. Would love to see us squeak into Dayton in this scenario.

NC SOS. Killer.

It certainly doesn't help. But with the right RPI wins I think we could do it. CAN'T have anymore bad losses. Gonna be tough

The OP's breakdown would be a year I'd be happy with and proud of under the circumstances, but it would not a NCAA team. 10 losses is at least 2, maybe three too many.

Gotta get one of the Cincy / SMU games and maybe only take one other loss before the conference tourney.

25-8 with wins over Cincy or SMU, South Carolina, Oklahoma (improving), Iowa (ok, think), and the other AAC hopefuls (Houston, UCF) puts us RIGHT at the cut line. 25-8 might get us to Dayton.

Still too much of an apocalyptic look back at the last few seasons. Glad we are back in position to make a run and possibly get consideration, but we were there the last few years as well...but collapsed last season in the last ten games before coming within a half of winning the conference tourney, while the prior year was a bubble of the bubble before Nichols got hurt late leading to missing out.

Not Suggesting things were great, just once again seeing these needless incendiary pokes backwards, which are always right if you only concentrate on one thing. Unfortunately that attitude is now national...lord help us.

Temple and UCF are winnable...

We can stand 2 more losses doesn't matter to which teams because a bad loss will be replaced with a good win.

14-4 Likely gets us 3rd place but that doesn't help us dodge Cinci or SMU (Unless by some miracle Tulsa or UCF ends up in 2nd)...We have to beat one of those 2 at least one time and only suffer 3 more losses (2 regular season and 1 in the tourney) that gets us dancing as an at large.

Keep in mind that 24-7 gets us a likely 45 or better RPI. That Tulsa loss really hurt our chances.

But realistically we are going to likely lose games we shouldn't because we are not a complete team so some teams may be able to exploit our weaknesses although they are not better teams.

One projection currently predicts Memphis to finish 21-10 with a SOS of 122 and an RPI of 77.

Wichita State made it in last year with an RPI of 80.
Monmouth made it in last year with an RPI of 56.
Vandy made it in last year with an RPI of 86.
Temple made it in with an RPI of 69.

Also... GP stated last year "Every eligible Power 5 school with a top-54 RPI made the NCAA Tournament. But eight non-Power 5 schools with top-54 RPIs did not."

SO, ya just don't know.

But there's a path. Now we have to win some games.

(01-20-2017 01:34 PM)450bench Wrote:  

(01-20-2017 12:34 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  I wouldnt underestimate the committee wanting another Tubby team in the tournament, either.

Agreed. Benefit of the doubt goes his way.

That's a good point.

(01-20-2017 03:22 PM)HometownTiger Wrote:  One projection currently predicts Memphis to finish 21-10 with a SOS of 122 and an RPI of 77.

Wichita State made it in last year with an RPI of 80.
Monmouth made it in last year with an RPI of 56.
Vandy made it in last year with an RPI of 86.
Temple made it in with an RPI of 69.

Also... GP stated last year "Every eligible Power 5 school with a top-54 RPI made the NCAA Tournament. But eight non-Power 5 schools with top-54 RPIs did not."

SO, ya just don't know.

But there's a path. Now we have to win some games.

Good thing committee is looking at more than just RPI ... don't know if it starts this upcoming season or starting next year (2017-2018 season). I do believe it is for the 2017-18 season.

(01-20-2017 03:01 PM)Mimi Wrote:  Still too much of an apocalyptic look back at the last few seasons. Glad we are back in position to make a run and possibly get consideration, but we were there the last few years as well...but collapsed last season in the last ten games before coming within a half of winning the conference tourney, while the prior year was a bubble of the bubble before Nichols got hurt late leading to missing out.

Not Suggesting things were great, just once again seeing these needless incendiary pokes backwards, which are always right if you only concentrate on one thing. Unfortunately that attitude is now national...lord help us.

Don't lump me in with the Trumpettes. The last few seasons were very disappointing.

Tournament likes
1. rabid fans
2. college stars who have shot at NBA
3. potential cinderella teams
4. programs to throw in a glass jar and shake up together

Monmouth didn't make the Tournament last season, nor have they since 2006.

(01-20-2017 04:30 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  Tournament likes
1. rabid fans
2. college stars who have shot at NBA
3. potential cinderella teams
4. programs to throw in a glass jar and shake up together

The NCAA has no incentive to fix the field (especially for bubble teams) as the new contract is very long term. The idea that they would give Tubby special consideration is amusing.

(01-20-2017 03:22 PM)HometownTiger Wrote:  One projection currently predicts Memphis to finish 21-10 with a SOS of 122 and an RPI of 77.

Wichita State made it in last year with an RPI of 80.
Monmouth made it in last year with an RPI of 56.
Vandy made it in last year with an RPI of 86.
Temple made it in with an RPI of 69.

Also... GP stated last year "Every eligible Power 5 school with a top-54 RPI made the NCAA Tournament. But eight non-Power 5 schools with top-54 RPIs did not."

SO, ya just don't know.

But there's a path. Now we have to win some games.

This says Vandy's rpi was 61. http://www.si.com/college-basketball/van...tournament

And this says Wichita's was 48.
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/201...tournament

I'm too lazy to look for others