Bearhawkeye
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RE: Reds Offseason
(02-16-2017 12:09 PM)bearcatmark Wrote: (02-16-2017 11:52 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote: (02-16-2017 06:55 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote: Bailey's contract was silly before he ever got hurt. He was probably worth 6 years at $105 million to other teams who have that kind of cash in their couch cushions, but not to this one. Walt Jocketty spent like a drunk sailor on a 96 hour shore leave.
That's a great philosophy if you are playing to be competitive. But if you are playing to win, and the Reds were, then you need a premiere starter or two and those are exceedingly hard to come by. The draft takes years and most of even the top pitching prospects flame out or get hurt. The rare one that gets to free agency is going to the highest bidder, not to a team that can't afford Bailey. Trading for one is even more expensive in terms of talent and that's if you can find a team willing to deal.
If you can't afford to pay your #1 starter in his prime years $105M over 6 years you might as well sell the team. Fans aren't going to settle for less. Hopefully Bailey returns to form or at least the insurance kicks in.
Was Bailey ever really the reds number 1 starter? Should he have been? He had 2 seasons with 200+ innings in his career. Even in those two seasons his ERA+ was that of a good but not great pitcher. He has pretty much been a league average pitcher even while healthy (those two seasons being above that, but other seasons below and never drastically so). His WAR never put him among the better pitchers in the league. I agree with you that paying your #1 starter for his prime years 105 M over 6 years isn't outrageous, but Bailey never seemed like the best bet to be that for this team.
So who was - Cueto? Sure he's been mostly great (KC regular season aside) since the Bailey signing, but he was the guy coming off injuries at the time. And while I'm not big on pitcher's sizes and Cueto is known as a hard worker, he's also a short guy who seems to have put on quite a bit of weight over his career - much of it in his gut per many of his critics. You are right that Bailey has never established himself as #1, if he had he would have been much more expensive. Bailey was a bet going forward; a projection based in part upon those two 200+ IP seasons, prime age, broad shoulders and strong arm. I wouldn't call his contract a bargain at the time, but it was the market rate to keep a guy like him. What exactly did you advocate they do at the time with regard to pitching and how much would that have cost?
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2017 03:28 PM by Bearhawkeye.)
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02-16-2017 02:03 PM |
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rath v2.0
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RE: Reds Offseason
(02-16-2017 02:03 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote: (02-16-2017 12:09 PM)bearcatmark Wrote: (02-16-2017 11:52 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote: (02-16-2017 06:55 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote: Bailey's contract was silly before he ever got hurt. He was probably worth 6 years at $105 million to other teams who have that kind of cash in their couch cushions, but not to this one. Walt Jocketty spent like a drunk sailor on a 96 hour shore leave.
That's a great philosophy if you are playing to be competitive. But if you are playing to win, and the Reds were, then you need a premiere starter or two and those are exceedingly hard to come by. The draft takes years and most of even the top pitching prospects flame out or get hurt. The rare one that gets to free agency is going to the highest bidder, not to a team that can't afford Bailey. Trading for one is even more expensive in terms of talent and that's if you can find a team willing to deal.
If you can't afford to pay your #1 starter in his prime years $105M over 6 years you might as well sell the team. Fans aren't going to settle for less. Hopefully Bailey returns to form or at least the insurance kicks in.
Was Bailey ever really the reds number 1 starter? Should he have been? He had 2 seasons with 200+ innings in his career. Even in those two seasons his ERA+ was that of a good but not great pitcher. He has pretty much been a league average pitcher even while healthy (those two seasons being above that, but other seasons below and never drastically so). His WAR never put him among the better pitchers in the league. I agree with you that paying your #1 starter for his prime years 105 M over 6 years isn't outrageous, but Bailey never seemed like the best bet to be that for this team.
So who was - Cueto? Sure he's been mostly great (KC regular season aside) since the Bailey signing, but he was the guy coming off injuries at the time. And while I'm not big on pitcher's sizes and Cueto is known as a hard worker, he's also a short guy who seems to have put on quite a bit of weight over his career - much of it in his gut per many of his critics. You are right that Bailey has never established himself as #1, if he had he would have been much more expensive. Bailey was a bet going forward; a projection based in part upon those two 200+ IP seasons, prime age, broad shoulders and strong arm. I wouldn't call his contract a bargain at the time, but it was the market rate to keep a guy like him. What exactly did you advocate they do at the time with regard to pitching and how much would that have cost?
Cueto was and Latos was for a spell. When I say a number one or two I don't mean on one specific team. I mean how do they fit in most places.
Christ, Paul Wilson and Jimmy Haynes were a one - two combo on this team a dozen or so years ago. LOL
If the Reds were going to give 9 figures to a pitcher it should have probably been Cueto. He had random health issues himself but they were not due to motion or mechanics. Cueto has the kind of stuff than can stick around. And so far it appears to have done so. They signed Homer instead which signaled to the entire world Cueto was not in the cards.
That being said, a team in this market doesn't have the luxury of 100 million dollar pitchers heading into their 30's. It's an awful investment for small market teams to tie up that much revenue for guys who may factor into 30-35 games a year if the arm stays generally healthy. If not healthy, which is usually not an if but a when for hard throwing starting pitching, it's the kiss of death for a franchise. I'm not a sabermeteics guy generally but the numbers on Homer said he was a decent upper mid-tier pitcher even if he stayed healthy. This isn't Monday am quarterbacking. Walts large deals were strange ones, IMO.
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02-16-2017 04:45 PM |
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Lush
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RE: Reds Offseason
the braves could be a fun team to watch next year
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02-19-2017 09:32 PM |
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rath v2.0
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RE: Reds Offseason
Descalfani shut down a month for an UCL sprain...That has Tommy John written all over it.
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03-13-2017 07:11 PM |
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InspectorHound
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RE: Reds Offseason
(03-13-2017 07:11 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: Descalfani shut down a month for an UCL sprain...That has Tommy John written all over it.
If not now, then certainly when he starts following the advice of our world-class medical team...
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03-14-2017 02:36 PM |
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Bearhawkeye
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RE: Reds Offseason
(03-14-2017 02:36 PM)InspectorHound Wrote: (03-13-2017 07:11 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: Descalfani shut down a month for an UCL sprain...That has Tommy John written all over it.
If not now, then certainly when he starts following the advice of our world-class medical team...
Like a lot of teams, I thought the Reds might be able to push for a wild-card bid this year if they got lucky and healthy. But that hope has already begun fading with the news on Homer and Disco... They really need to see a lot of young pitchers step up this year or it could be a long season.
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03-14-2017 05:57 PM |
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rath v2.0
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RE: Reds Offseason
(03-14-2017 02:36 PM)InspectorHound Wrote: (03-13-2017 07:11 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: Descalfani shut down a month for an UCL sprain...That has Tommy John written all over it.
If not now, then certainly when he starts following the advice of our world-class medical team...
Most likely. I don't think I have ever heard of this diagnosis in a pitcher that did not end up having Tommy John at some point that year. Strains, yes. Not sprains where lengthening due to repetitive use has occurred without a tear. The month off is a wing and a prayer that it is just 1st degree "Little League Elbow" soreness and not a second degree sprain with lengthening.
Fear is that he comes out of mothballs in May and has some "complications."
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03-14-2017 06:48 PM |
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rath v2.0
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RE: Reds Offseason
Hope I am wrong but he left his rehab start with a forearm problem. This is following the script, sadly..
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08-03-2017 09:30 PM |
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BeerCat
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RE: Reds Offseason
How much money and games have the moron medical staff cost the Reds?
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08-04-2017 07:47 AM |
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Lush
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RE: Reds Offseason
the smear job on kremy continues. just kidding. are the concerns noticed by the front office? or is it just bad luck and he's actually a competent surgeon?
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08-05-2017 09:21 AM |
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Billy_Bearcat
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RE: Reds Offseason
(08-05-2017 09:21 AM)Lush Wrote: the smear job on kremy continues. just kidding. are the concerns noticed by the front office? or is it just bad luck and he's actually a competent surgeon?
He's imbedded with ownership. He's become so close and chummy you often see him in the owner's suite.
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08-05-2017 01:42 PM |
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Not Duane
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RE: Reds Offseason
(08-05-2017 01:42 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote: (08-05-2017 09:21 AM)Lush Wrote: the smear job on kremy continues. just kidding. are the concerns noticed by the front office? or is it just bad luck and he's actually a competent surgeon?
He's imbedded with ownership. He's become so close and chummy you often see him in the owner's suite.
Too many bum arms and bad outcomes over too many seasons--the only constant is the medical staff. Something does not add up.
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08-06-2017 06:25 AM |
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