Students back this week, so, hopefully a good and active crowd for an important game on Thursday.

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We're still undefeated at home right?

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All the advanced metrics hate JMU, so this will be a big game for us to establish where we actually stand in the conference. FWIW, Sagarin has us 5th right now but with a much, much tougher schedule than anyone else in the conference.

I know none of these games (until March) are technically must win. And I know saying a game is a "must win" on a message board can be a bit like chicken-little the sky is falling. And every game should be approached with a "must win" attitude.

All that said...This game is a must win.

(01-18-2017 09:19 AM)tribetime10 Wrote:  I know none of these games (until March) are technically must win. And I know saying a game is a "must win" on a message board can be a bit like chicken-little the sky is falling. And every game should be approached with a "must win" attitude.

All that said...This game is a must win.

Yeah. In order to protect our perfect home record. #FortressKaplan

This game and upcoming home games make or break for our guys.

(01-17-2017 12:26 PM)zablenoise Wrote:  All the advanced metrics hate JMU

I'm curious what the numbers would look like in conference-only games. I know they likely can't break that down, but when you analyze JMU, you have to almost consider their non-conference to be like exhibition games.

For instance, JMU is strong in these conference-only stats from a basic stats perspective, and it would be hard to imagine the advanced metrics are killing them in conference-only games either:


Scoring Defense:

1. James Madison 56.8
2. Col of Charleston 59.3
3. Northeastern 65.2


Scoring Margin

1. UNCW +14.2
2. Northeastern +13.5
3. Col of Charleston +7.3
4. James Madison +4.7
5. Elon -0.8


FG %

1. Northeastern .522
2. William & Mary .485
3. UNCW .483
4. James Madison .470
5. Elon .461


FG % Defense

1. James Madison .377
2. Col of Charleston .429
3. Towson .431


3-pt Defense

1. Col of Charleston .279
2. Northeastern .286
3. James Madison .303
4. Elon .325
5. Towson .336


Defensive Rebounds

1. James Madison 26.7
2. William & Mary 26.4
3. Northeastern 25.5


Rebounding Defense

1. James Madison 29.0
2. Northeastern 31.0
3. Towson 32.3


Rebounding Margin

1. Towson +5.3
2. James Madison +5.0
3. Northeastern +2.3


Blocked Shots

1. Col of Charleston 4.0
2. James Madison 3.5
3. Drexel 3.2

dukes are the best and will crush the nerds

Does anyone know if Dixon is playing tonight? Hope he is doing better and ready to go.

Today's Charleston paper lists the odds as the Tribe giving 7 to the Dukes.

To quote Sheldon of the Big Bang: "Don't get me wrong, I'm flattered. I just don't see it."

Hoping for a win but expecting a close hard-fought game.

(01-19-2017 10:49 AM)tribeinexile Wrote:  Today's Charleston paper lists the odds as the Tribe giving 7 to the Dukes.

To quote Sheldon of the Big Bang: "Don't get me wrong, I'm flattered. I just don't see it."

Hoping for a win but expecting a close hard-fought game.

JMU fan writes "dukes are the best and will crush the nerds."

WM fan quotes the biggest nerd on TV. Love it!

Contributing to Tribe nerd-dom since 1974!

(01-18-2017 11:07 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  I'm curious what the numbers would look like in conference-only games. I know they likely can't break that down, but when you analyze JMU, you have to almost consider their non-conference to be like exhibition games.

So I attempted to run a Sagarin like regression using only conference games. It's not perfect, especially because my math major buddies wouldn't get back to me about what kind of regression to use and my version of Excel freaks out when I try to run solver so I had to run a lot of calculations the old fashioned way. Anyway, it's a predictive rating based on a league average score of 71 PPG and a home court advantage of 3.11 (borrowed from Sagarin):

UNCW - 90.124
NU - 86.11
COC - 80.978
JMU - 73.913
TU - 67.318
EU - 66.917
HU - 66.816
DU - 62.817
W&M - 60.601
UD - 52.567

It's a lot more favorable to JMU but Tribe fans may want to ignore it because it doesn't look so great for us (getting blown out by UNCW and NU will do that). But at least our SOS is still the toughest to date, even when only factoring in conference games. The model has JMU as about a 10 point favorite tonight but I think we keep it closer than that (and maybe even win), especially if Dixon plays.

(01-19-2017 11:48 AM)zablenoise Wrote:  

(01-18-2017 11:07 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  I'm curious what the numbers would look like in conference-only games. I know they likely can't break that down, but when you analyze JMU, you have to almost consider their non-conference to be like exhibition games.

So I attempted to run a Sagarin like regression using only conference games. It's not perfect, especially because my math major buddies wouldn't get back to me about what kind of regression to use and my version of Excel freaks out when I try to run solver so I had to run a lot of calculations the old fashioned way. Anyway, it's a predictive rating based on a league average score of 71 PPG and a home court advantage of 3.11 (borrowed from Sagarin):

UNCW - 90.124
NU - 86.11
COC - 80.978
JMU - 73.913
TU - 67.318
EU - 66.917
HU - 66.816
DU - 62.817
W&M - 60.601
UD - 52.567

It's a lot more favorable to JMU but Tribe fans may want to ignore it because it doesn't look so great for us (getting blown out by UNCW and NU will do that). But at least our SOS is still the toughest to date, even when only factoring in conference games. The model has JMU as about a 10 point favorite tonight but I think we keep it closer than that (and maybe even win), especially if Dixon plays.

Nerd.

(01-19-2017 12:30 PM)TribeToTheEnd Wrote:  Nerd.

Oh look, one of the aforementioned math majors (or in his case minor)

LOL as soon as I saw that post I knew someone would call him out as a nerd.

Thanks for the info! It's nice to see my Seahawks are passing the analytics test with flying colors!

Tribsters, six point favs, to spank the pukes, uh er dukes. Let's hope we defend the rim and get some offensive rebounds.

(01-19-2017 03:02 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  LOL as soon as I saw that post I knew someone would call him out as a nerd.

Thanks for the info! It's nice to see my Seahawks are passing the analytics test with flying colors!

He may be a nerd, but he's our nerd Mr. Seahawk.

The nerd thing never bothered me. The only thing worse than getting your ass kicked, is getting your ass kicked by a nerd.

One Tribe. One Family.