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Poll: How far does Gonzaga go?
This poll is closed.
National champs 0% 0 0%
National Title Game 1.82% 1 1.82%
Final Four 14.55% 8 14.55%
Elite 8 41.82% 23 41.82%
Sweet 16 32.73% 18 32.73%
Round of 32 7.27% 4 7.27%
Round of 64 1.82% 1 1.82%
Opening Round 0% 0 0%
Miss the Dance 0% 0 0%
Total 55 vote(s) 100%
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How far does Gonzaga go?
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_C2_ Online
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Post: #71
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
I could have seen them losing to a 16-seed in a year like this where they are exceptionally strong though I think they caught a break with the other SDSU. But I strongly think they could be in trouble against Midwestern--err... I mean Northwestern. Given their history of postseason flops, I'd be more surprised if they won against Northwestern than if they took care of business.
03-12-2017 07:26 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #72
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
(03-12-2017 07:26 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I could have seen them losing to a 16-seed in a year like this where they are exceptionally strong though I think they caught a break with the other SDSU. But I strongly think they could be in trouble against Midwestern--err... I mean Northwestern. Given their history of postseason flops, I'd be more surprised if they won against Northwestern than if they took care of business.
I really thought Texas Southern would get them down to the wire if matched up.

They'll smoke Northwestern though. I'd be flabbergasted if Gonzaga doesn't make Sweet 16.
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2017 07:37 PM by IWokeUpLikeThis.)
03-12-2017 07:35 PM
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SouthEastAlaska Offline
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Post: #73
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
After examining their bracket I think they really only have 2 teams that can keep them from a run to the final 4, West Virginia and Arizona.

So it just really depends on who beats who, but if they have to play either of those 2 it's probably the end of their tournament run!
03-12-2017 09:45 PM
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_C2_ Online
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Post: #74
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
Based on what metric? Going by the concept of the chalk, that the higher seeded team should win each game, his record should be at bare minimum 21-17 but that's merely assuming the brackets hold. Looking between the numbers and prorating that idea round by round, he should have more wins and appearances in the Elite 8 and Final Four. He only has one and as a top 4 seed has only fulfilled his seedline chalk 2/5 tries.

And that of course ignores another bit of analytics, which is including clear chokes despite the seedline, particularly last year and Adam Morrison's last game in 2006.

Gonzaga is an amazing success story of a scrappy little underdog reaching national acclaim and respect. If they want any more respect than that, they're gonna have to earn it. And if they lose before the Sweet 16, they don't get to fall back on that idea of being a cute little overachiever, those days are over. They whined for years about being taken seriously and not being treated as a minor program, so if they want that prestige, they're gonna have to earn it.
03-13-2017 03:49 AM
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UpStreamRedTeam Offline
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Post: #75
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
(02-12-2017 12:18 PM)Go College Sports Wrote:  
(02-12-2017 12:01 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I'm afraid that's not true. They've lost as the better seed five times, not including the Adam Morrison crying loss to UCLA when they were clearly were the better team nor last year. Other than the 8/9 matchup, they've only won three games as a lower seeded team since the Calvary years, including two last year. 10-6 as a top 4 seed, including 3 failures to make the Sweet 16

Few was an assistant to Monson, so yes he had something to do with Calvary's development but it is a reasonable hypothesis to speculate he would have progressed with Few or another coach.

I'm not saying Few is a bad coach. He's good at finding players and fitting them into his system, then excelling. But his Tournament record, basically .500 minus the Calvary years, more or less proves he squeezes more orange juice out of the orange than is even there. When they get to the Tourament, they can compete with anyone but rarely are dominant over anyone except low seeded first round fodder. And even that isn't full proof, they came within a hair or losing to Southern as a 1-seed.

He deserves praise for what he built but criticism regardless of what level his program started at. Just do it...make the Final Four and I'll gladly pipe down and even do a significant or avatar bet.

I'm afraid that it is exactly true. Few has won 21 tournament games at Gonzaga. A team with the seeds Gonzaga has received over the last 17 seasons would be expected to win 21.19 games. So he's underachieved by a whopping 0.19 games.

But you're cherry picking so I know that won't matter.

In terms of expected wins by seed Few seems to under AND over achieve.
03-13-2017 10:37 AM
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_C2_ Online
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Post: #76
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
Few is 7-5 as a double digit seed (by default, he should be 0-5) and 10-6 as a top 4 seed. Ignoring upsets in the bracket, he should have a 15-6 record but including them, you can add two extra wins, a Final Four appearance and a trip to the national title game.

So yes, he overachieves as a double digit seed and underachieves as a top 4 seed.
03-13-2017 02:18 PM
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Post: #77
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
The poll is closing soon, cast your votes now if you haven't.
03-15-2017 07:24 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #78
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
(03-13-2017 02:18 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Few is 7-5 as a double digit seed (by default, he should be 0-5) and 10-6 as a top 4 seed. Ignoring upsets in the bracket, he should have a 15-6 record but including them, you can add two extra wins, a Final Four appearance and a trip to the national title game.

So yes, he overachieves as a double digit seed and underachieves as a top 4 seed.

Wouldn't you expect that of most coaches? If you are a #1 seed, it's impossible to overachieve, and if you are a #12 seed (which is about as low as you can get unless you are in a perennial one bid league) it's nearly impossible to underachieve.

The problem seems to be more with fans' perceptions than Gonzaga's (and Few's) performance.
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2017 10:11 AM by ken d.)
03-16-2017 10:10 AM
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Post: #79
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
On average, he fails to make the Sweet 16 half the time as a top 4 seed. And considering he was only as low as a 4 once, that's not very good.
03-16-2017 11:20 AM
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Post: #80
RE: How far does Gonzaga go?
The Northwestern game should be real interesting.
03-17-2017 12:52 AM
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