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PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
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p23570
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Post: #21
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
(01-06-2017 06:15 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  A directional university in Michigan even has that kind of money, in the first place???

Didn't think there were that many filthy rich blueberry farmers out in Western Michigan ...

I can tell yo from discussions with thier fans the last week that they beleive the following.
1. They think they have facilites on par withmany p-5 schools
2. They think they brought 30-40k fans for the bowl game
3. They think they have billionare donors who give generously to the AD
4. They think WMU can afford to pay 30 million over 10 yaers for a coach.

REality
1. There is no way they have p-5 level facilities, just not enough $ in the AD.
2. Although the turnout was impressive I tend to think they probably had less than the fans estimates. With most home games in the teens and 20's its' hard to imagine they brought 45k fans like some have claimed.
3. The AD donations lister on USA today are less than a million per year. Ticket sales are only 1.5 million. Major support issues.
5. They currently pay 800k so thinking that the school is going to up his pay to 3 millon per season is not realistic. It's funny when you look at a list of who pays that much and its' successful p-5 programs.

It's great that they are proud of their school but this has gone beyond ridiculous. Essentially they are pretending that they are some sort of p-5 program much like NIU did during thier 15 minutes of fame. But now it's back to reality.
01-06-2017 06:26 PM
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HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Offline
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Post: #22
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
The last time that Minnesota was elite was when they won 5 National Championships in 8 years (1934-1941).
01-06-2017 07:09 PM
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Sparty84 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
congrats minnesota and Coach Fleck
01-06-2017 08:54 PM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #24
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
(01-06-2017 09:18 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Good move for PJ.

No doubt. Apparently, there are 10,000 lakes in Minnesota.

Plenty of room for PJ to keep on rowing the boat.
01-07-2017 02:17 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #25
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
Quote:1. They think they have facilites on par withmany p-5 schools

Nobody's preaching that. It's that it's not a hampering issue. It's very good on G5 levels, and only to scale up. Keep winning, more is made. Wasn't a deciding factor.

Quote:2. They think they brought 30-40k fans for the bowl game

It's that we had at least as many as Wisconsin brought. If you were down in Arlington & Dallas -- and At the game -- you wouldn't be arguing that.

Quote:3. They think they have billionare donors who give generously to the AD

We do. They were basically paying his salary -- and flying his kids from the St. Louis area to Kzoo. Read up.

Quote:4. They think WMU can afford to pay 30 million over 10 yaers for a coach.

With billionaire alumni, that was at least a somewhat realistic rumor. And the AD said to the press -- we were going to offer more (as in longer-term contract, thus adding up to more). One of the biggest misconceptions those outside the core WMU fan base (or MAC following all this) is that WMU wasn't able to pay him much more than $800k/year. LOL. Oh, they certainly were able to (see your #3).

Him being a midwesterner, and liking the Kzoo area, with his new wife being from the area -- it was about as good a gig as one could get. But he has bigger aspirations. If he were to have signed on to a long-term deal, he wouldn't been able to be bought out any time real soon... and the Minnesota gig was a good thing to jump on if one wanted to stay in the midwest, as it was taking over a winning team whose previous coaches were ones he was an understudy of.

Ambition > Comfort G5 Power

If he was nearing 55+ years old, things would have unfolded differently. But no, it was no "Here, we'll give you $1.0 million and give a small boost to your OC/DC - please stay," -- it wasn't as meager as that. If that's all they could have done, he probably would have jumped on the Purdue train around the time of the MACC. Why did he not chase anything until after the MACC? He knew what he was getting was P5-level riches + a chance to Establish a G5 power. Not a bad gig at all. He wisely wasn't going to sacrifice a Conf Championship and such when a Good opportunity was already at his doorstep. It was just the drunken gang-bang opened up the doors for him to take over a winning program in the midwest who would let him be him. He jumped on it for ambition, obviously.

If he leads Minnesota to jockeying for 1st place in the East Division of B1G year to year, he'll be hired elsewhere. He could be in a similar spot in 4 years -- where a 10W Minn team is willing to pay him more than one would think with alumni all behind him and money thrown down -- but due to the ability to get better recruits and such at a better locale & bigger name, he jets elsewhere for only a little more.
(This post was last modified: 01-07-2017 05:40 PM by toddjnsn.)
01-07-2017 05:37 PM
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wleakr Offline
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Post: #26
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
(01-07-2017 05:37 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  If he was nearing 55+ years old, things would have unfolded differently. But no, it was no "Here, we'll give you $1.0 million and give a small boost to your OC/DC - please stay," -- it wasn't as meager as that. If that's all they could have done, he probably would have jumped on the Purdue train around the time of the MACC. Why did he not chase anything until after the MACC? He knew what he was getting was P5-level riches + a chance to Establish a G5 power. Not a bad gig at all. He wisely wasn't going to sacrifice a Conf Championship and such when a Good opportunity was already at his doorstep. It was just the drunken gang-bang opened up the doors for him to take over a winning program in the midwest who would let him be him. He jumped on it for ambition, obviously.

I don't think anyone knows beyond his inner circle, but my impression is there weren't that many offers for him to "chase". We don't even know if he had an offer from Purdue.

Basically the timing worked that Minnesota came after the MACC & Cotton Bowl. If the opportunity had been there before those games were played, he would've definitely jumped ship just like any other coach when given a much more lucrative offer while the iron was hot from a good MAC season.
01-07-2017 06:20 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #27
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
Quote:I don't think anyone knows beyond his inner circle, but my impression is there weren't that many offers for him to "chase". We don't even know if he had an offer from Purdue.

Well, Purdue was no Oregon opportunity. Basically, PJ shut himself off from being 1-on-1 with anyone until the MACC game was done. It 'cost' him opportunities, for better or worse. Purdue expressed interest out there but basically he wasn't biting.

Much liking not returning a gal's call until you come back from the bar at the end of the night. A lot of talk of it being arrogant, but IMO, it's Purdue -- not Oregon. Continuing to be HC of a power G5 making more than some P5s (he was to make in millions if to stay) -- with a long-term contract is much better to many than going to Purdue for a bit more a year. Certainly not enough to risk ruining your Conf Champ chances which would harm your resume To make jumps to equally or certainly better places than Purdue (which would be the ideal aim; Minn mildly better than Purdue... and taking over a winning team is a Big bonus, career-risk wise).
(This post was last modified: 01-07-2017 11:45 PM by toddjnsn.)
01-07-2017 11:44 PM
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perimeterpost Offline
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Post: #28
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
imagine if CFP money was distributed fairly instead of the 80/20 P5/G5 set up in play right now, it would be a lot harder for annually terrible programs like Minn. to hire away good coaches.
01-07-2017 11:51 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #29
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
(01-07-2017 11:51 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  imagine if CFP money was distributed fairly instead of the 80/20 P5/G5 set up in play right now, it would be a lot harder for annually terrible programs like Minn. to hire away good coaches.

no lol.

The CFP revenue is a drop in the bucket compared to what they make with the TV rights and marketing.
01-07-2017 11:58 PM
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wleakr Offline
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Post: #30
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
(01-07-2017 11:44 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Well, Purdue was no Oregon opportunity. Basically, PJ shut himself off from being 1-on-1 with anyone until the MACC game was done. It 'cost' him opportunities, for better or worse. Purdue expressed interest out there but basically he wasn't biting.

Much liking not returning a gal's call until you come back from the bar at the end of the night. A lot of talk of it being arrogant, but IMO, it's Purdue -- not Oregon. Continuing to be HC of a power G5 making more than some P5s (he was to make in millions if to stay) -- with a long-term contract is much better to many than going to Purdue for a bit more a year. Certainly not enough to risk ruining your Conf Champ chances which would harm your resume To make jumps to equally or certainly better places than Purdue (which would be the ideal aim; Minn mildly better than Purdue... and taking over a winning team is a Big bonus, career-risk wise).

1 great season for WMU doesn't make for a power G5.

The whole "secluding" himself from contention sounds good for public consumption, but doubt it was true privately, especially with so few coaching openings anyway.

I believe his true intentions are evident by the fact that WMU couldn't get his Hancock either prior or immediately following the Cotton Bowl.

If the response is, "well, we were getting the money together from every outside resource imaginable, so we could up his pay", there was ample time to do so following the MACC, which was a long time ago. Contracts get done quick when all parties are in agreement.

At least 1 party was NOT in agreement.
01-08-2017 01:40 AM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #31
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
Quote:1 great season for WMU doesn't make for a power G5.

Having 2 8W seasons, then going to a Cotton Bowl @13-0, and then still getting some of the best G5 recruits, etc -- yeah, you're certainly in the top rung at that point (if you stay).

Quote:I believe his true intentions are evident by the fact that WMU couldn't get his Hancock either prior or immediately following the Cotton Bowl.

Yes and No. I think he wanted to keep his options open and was going to put a lot of weight on the 'little' things in there. Why rush for it? The Minn HC position could be in play after their HC sided with the players & the gang-bang... and sure enough....

He wasn't Chasing another one, nor was he trying to lock down the WMU contract. Anyone in his position is going to take his time and see what last-minute openings surface. Why not, right? It's not like anyone else was competing with him @WMU.

If the Minn HC didn't side with his players -- PJ would be signing the contract right now with WMU.
01-08-2017 02:46 PM
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wleakr Offline
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Post: #32
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
(01-08-2017 02:46 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  
Quote:1 great season for WMU doesn't make for a power G5.

Having 2 8W seasons, then going to a Cotton Bowl @13-0, and then still getting some of the best G5 recruits, etc -- yeah, you're certainly in the top rung at that point (if you stay).

Quote:I believe his true intentions are evident by the fact that WMU couldn't get his Hancock either prior or immediately following the Cotton Bowl.

Yes and No. I think he wanted to keep his options open and was going to put a lot of weight on the 'little' things in there. Why rush for it? The Minn HC position could be in play after their HC sided with the players & the gang-bang... and sure enough....

He wasn't Chasing another one, nor was he trying to lock down the WMU contract. Anyone in his position is going to take his time and see what last-minute openings surface. Why not, right? It's not like anyone else was competing with him @WMU.

If the Minn HC didn't side with his players -- PJ would be signing the contract right now with WMU.

WMU definitely trended up, but I still wouldn't consider them a G5 "power" with just 1 recent trip (and win) in the MACC. NIU had 6 consecutive trips to the title game, winning 3 of them, and they aren't even considered a G5 power...lol!

Regardless of how it occurred, the majority of college football fans believed he would be gone after this extremely successful season with WMU. It has happened with practically every MAC coach under similar circumstances.

With games against Michigan State & USC next season, he would've been hard pressed to keep the bar raised.

But I do agree; Fleck had all the leverage, as he could keep his options open for as long as he needed to, knowing the WMU AD had no other option but to await his decision.
01-08-2017 04:11 PM
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p23570
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Post: #33
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
This guy just strikes me as someone whose method is not going to work at this level. He seems way too nice and way too emotional. He had some advantages over the rest of the conference at WMU. Now he has nothing but disadvantages with a program that has not been relevant in decades, recruiting the leftovers from the B1G boys (tOSU,Michigan, MSU, PSU, WIsconsin, Nebraska) in a place that few 18 years olds in thier right mind would actually want to live.

When the losses pile up and the kids dont' buy into the "rowing" it's going to get ugly. Boosters will have a lot more expectations with a coaching making double what the last guy did. I just dont' see him being able to waltz into recruits houses and steal 4 star guys from the big boys.
01-08-2017 09:22 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #34
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
Quote:WMU definitely trended up, but I still wouldn't consider them a G5 "power" with just 1 recent trip (and win) in the MACC. NIU had 6 consecutive trips to the title game, winning 3 of them, and they aren't even considered a G5 power...lol!

I disagree. Top-tier G5 recruiting pipeline they were consistently getting, while going 8W, 8W (tied for 1st in Div), then 13-0 (Cotton Bowl) -- as I said, if he stays -- yeah, they're considered a power team in the G5. It wasn't out of luck (again, see recruiting). But obviously that can be taken away with a bad coach -- as seen with NIU after Rod Carey got settled in. But if last year was NIU's down year and they were back to a 10W team-as-usual, heck yeah they'd be one. They were one. They just lost that status as this year revealed itself.

Quote:Regardless of how it occurred, the majority of college football fans believed he would be gone after this extremely successful season with WMU.

A majority of college football fans thought he would have been gone at around the time of the MACC, and not by default setting on staying, except for a last-minute fire by Minn on a winning program.

Quote:With games against Michigan State & USC next season, he would've been hard pressed to keep the bar raised.

If MSU is only slightly better next year, that'd be a winnable game for WMU if they kept that boat-of-PJ in the water. USC? No way. But then again, it'd only be a winnable game for about as many P5 teams as one could count on one hand any way. Certainly doesn't make you a lesser G5. WMU could have gone 9-4 in this next adjustment year with tougher schedule, and 10-2 the next. That'd certainly be on the top end of the stick of G5s, without question.
01-08-2017 10:57 PM
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p23570
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Post: #35
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
Going to take more than 1 conference title to be a g-5 power. Boise is the king of the g-5 with more BCS level wins than the rest of them combined. From a resources side WMU is not even close to being on the level of some of the other actual g-5 powers. Compare them to say Cinci who has had success, CC's, BCS games, etc.. and nearly twice the AD budget. Schools like Houston have so much more money it's not even funny. WMU has less than 2 million in ticket sales while others are in the 5+ million category. WMU lacks the ability to raise money through donations or ticket sales which puts them at a huge disadvantage and forces them to require more subsidy to operate. Even lowly Tulsa and its' 4,500 students has better support and quite frankly a much better program and they are nowhere close to being a g-5 power. Keep in mind PJ's contract was less than a million base salary and buyout was also less than a million. That is nowhere close to what it will take to keep a coach.

Great season. Congrats. We now know what the high water mark is for the MAC if they go undefeated. Great crows at the bowl. Congrats. Great job getting gameday. Congrats. It was the best season in history for the program that likely will never be equaled.

Now it's over and life will go back to being normal at WMU.

I used to think that these schools could make the jump with 1 season but if you look at NIU you see how difficult that can be.
01-08-2017 11:09 PM
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Post: #36
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
(01-08-2017 09:22 PM)p23570 Wrote:  When the losses pile up and the kids dont' buy into the "rowing" it's going to get ugly. Boosters will have a lot more expectations with a coaching making double what the last guy did. I just dont' see him being able to waltz into recruits houses and steal 4 star guys from the big boys.
Looks more like stealing 3 star guys from the little boys he left behind, according to another thread in this board.

It does depend on how quickly those losses pile up ... if he can establish a system that can win more than it loses with well chosen two star and three star recruits that fit the system, he could indeed be at Minnesota for quite a long time. It is not necessary to be a perennial championship contender to keep Minnesota supporters reasonably satisfied ... as long as they are not perennial cellar dwellers either.
01-08-2017 11:20 PM
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p23570
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Post: #37
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
(01-08-2017 11:20 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(01-08-2017 09:22 PM)p23570 Wrote:  When the losses pile up and the kids dont' buy into the "rowing" it's going to get ugly. Boosters will have a lot more expectations with a coaching making double what the last guy did. I just dont' see him being able to waltz into recruits houses and steal 4 star guys from the big boys.
Looks more like stealing 3 star guys from the little boys he left behind, according to another thread in this board.

It does depend on how quickly those losses pile up ... if he can establish a system that can win more than it loses with well chosen two star and three star recruits that fit the system, he could indeed be at Minnesota for quite a long time. It is not necessary to be a perennial championship contender to keep Minnesota supporters reasonably satisfied ... as long as they are not perennial cellar dwellers either.

The reality is Minnesota is going to struggle to get past Wisconsin, Nebraska and Iowa in the West and a pile of schools in the East. MAybe he can take WMU recruits and beat those guys. Seems like a stretch to me.

Of all the coaches in the B1G where do you put him?
01-08-2017 11:46 PM
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Post: #38
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
(01-08-2017 11:46 PM)p23570 Wrote:  
(01-08-2017 11:20 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  ... It does depend on how quickly those losses pile up ... if he can establish a system that can win more than it loses with well chosen two star and three star recruits that fit the system, he could indeed be at Minnesota for quite a long time. It is not necessary to be a perennial championship contender to keep Minnesota supporters reasonably satisfied ... as long as they are not perennial cellar dwellers either.

The reality is Minnesota is going to struggle to get past Wisconsin, Nebraska and Iowa in the West and a pile of schools in the East.
But he doesn't have to PLAY a pile of schools in the East, only 3. And one or two of them will be Indiana, Rutgers and/or Maryland, in the next three years. Beat (eg 2017) the Buffalo Bulls, MTSU, Purdue, the Illini, and one of Northwestern or Maryland, and you're only one game away from going bowling.

Can PJ Fleck bring Minnesota into the position of regularly winning some of the Iowa / Whiskey / Nebraska games? I don't know, but winning a lot of 4 star battles with the Buckeyes, that School Up North and the other big stadium schools (inside and outside of the Big Ten) is not the only, and indeed not the most plausible, path to doing so.
01-09-2017 04:20 AM
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Post: #39
RE: PJ Fleck to Minnesota...
(01-08-2017 11:46 PM)p23570 Wrote:  The reality is Minnesota is going to struggle to get past Wisconsin, Nebraska and Iowa in the West and a pile of schools in the East.

Minnesota would struggle with this if they had Ditka and Lombardi as co-head coaches, Saban and Harbaugh as coordinators, and Schwarzenegger as strength coach.
01-09-2017 12:58 PM
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