airtroop
Sun Belt Nationalist
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RE: Final Power Ratings
(01-03-2017 04:39 PM)Crump1 Wrote: (01-03-2017 04:33 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote: (01-03-2017 04:26 PM)Crump1 Wrote: (01-03-2017 02:24 PM)ericsaid Wrote: (01-03-2017 02:11 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote: I think it would be much closer, but we just don't match up well with them. They were much improved at that point in the year and we'd peaked after the Idaho game. We had the bye week and we were "feelin' ourselves" as coach brown put it. We played well enough to win several key games, but we were a better team during our first five games.
Don't underestimate the power of a short week game after playing what many players likely viewed as the conference championship game. Much like the game against Arkansas State in 2015, App had just come off of an emotional win against Troy in a game that went to overtime.
I don't buy into excuses. Troy got to stay home since October 20 to Nov. 17 when they played Arkansas State. Arkansas State had the same five days to travel to a road game. It all comes out in the wash.
Power ratings and out of conference aside, it certainly feels good to win back to back titles and know that you beat both Troy and App on the road the last time you played them and they were not nail biters.
And yes, since we open with Miami (albeit at home) and Nebraska, we will likely be 2-2 at best out of conference next year.
You played NMSU and rested your starters for atleast half that game... not the same situation. You traveled but really traveling doesn't have that large an impact on a team.
We came out of the App game with several injuries including Chunn. Then our back up plan got hurt in the first play of the game with you guys.
Travelling has an impact or they would not give home teams 3 points in Vegas. Everyone has injuries. Chunn played the entire game. We lost potentially our strongest RB in the first half of the first game for the entire year.
Like I said, it was a wash. Home field advantage is a real thing.
Home teams don't automatically get 3 points from Vegas. The average home field advantage is 3.5 in CFB but that's just an average. For example, this year, Hawaii gets around 4.5 points and Western Michigan probably gets about 2 points at home from Vegas. It's the AVERAGE to which you (and most novices) allude, not the ACTUAL HF advantages Vegas assigns. Same goes with the NFL (i.e., Saints get 4.5, Jaguars get 2.5, average HFA is therefore 3 in the NFL generally). In handicapping and oddsmaking, using those numbers (3 point HFA for NFL and 3.5 point HFA for CFB) will lose you money.
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01-03-2017 07:35 PM |
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TroyFootball05
1987 Man of the Year
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RE: Final Power Ratings
Home field advantage is 3 or 3.5 points. Not 32. ARKST beat us fair and square.
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01-04-2017 12:23 AM |
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airtroop
Sun Belt Nationalist
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RE: Final Power Ratings
(01-04-2017 12:23 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote: Home field advantage is 3 or 3.5 points. Not 32. ARKST beat us fair and square.
AVERAGES bro... AVERAGES. Your game was an aberration but it still goes into the bin full of games and the AVERAGE will STILL come out to (roughly) a 3.5 point HFA. I lost a few dollars on you guys ATS but it still doesn't change the "airplane view".
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01-04-2017 02:59 AM |
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APPrising
1st String
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01-04-2017 09:55 AM |
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TroyFootball05
1987 Man of the Year
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RE: Final Power Ratings
(01-04-2017 02:59 AM)airtroop Wrote: (01-04-2017 12:23 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote: Home field advantage is 3 or 3.5 points. Not 32. ARKST beat us fair and square.
AVERAGES bro... AVERAGES. Your game was an aberration but it still goes into the bin full of games and the AVERAGE will STILL come out to (roughly) a 3.5 point HFA. I lost a few dollars on you guys ATS but it still doesn't change the "airplane view".
That wasn't my point at all. I understand very well what you're saying. I'm saying home field had nothing to do with losing 35-3. If we truly had HFA, we could have made it 35-6, 35-10, whatever. Still a blowout.
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01-04-2017 10:31 AM |
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TrueBlueDrew
Heisman
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01-04-2017 01:31 PM |
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ericsaid
Heisman
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RE: Final Power Ratings
(01-03-2017 04:26 PM)Crump1 Wrote: (01-03-2017 02:24 PM)ericsaid Wrote: (01-03-2017 02:11 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote: (01-03-2017 01:49 PM)ericsaid Wrote: I do believe, much like Army and North Texas, that if Arkansas State and Troy were to play again the result would be flip flopped.
I think it would be much closer, but we just don't match up well with them. They were much improved at that point in the year and we'd peaked after the Idaho game. We had the bye week and we were "feelin' ourselves" as coach brown put it. We played well enough to win several key games, but we were a better team during our first five games.
Don't underestimate the power of a short week game after playing what many players likely viewed as the conference championship game. Much like the game against Arkansas State in 2015, App had just come off of an emotional win against Troy in a game that went to overtime.
I don't buy into excuses. Troy got to stay home since October 20 to Nov. 17 when they played Arkansas State. Arkansas State had the same five days to travel to a road game. It all comes out in the wash.
Power ratings and out of conference aside, it certainly feels good to win back to back titles and know that you beat both Troy and App on the road the last time you played them and they were not nail biters.
And yes, since we open with Miami (albeit at home) and Nebraska, we will likely be 1-3 at best out of conference next year.
FIFY
I wasn't giving excuses, I was giving an explanation as to the cause of a 32 point loss. There is causation in there that is inexcusable however it can be understandable when you put your objectivity glasses on.
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01-04-2017 02:23 PM |
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Georgia_Power_Company
All American
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RE: Final Power Ratings
(01-01-2017 06:09 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote: App was the most consistent team in the conference.
1. App (only conference loss was to a healthy Troy team who got ranked day after)
2. Ark stAte (their loss to a not so great ULL team and OOC losses lands them at 2nd)
3. Troy (team peaked with App state and a few key injuries kept this team from winning league late in year)
4. Idaho (no wins over the top 3 keeps them in 4th)
5. ULL
6. USA
7. GS
8. ULM
9. NMSU
10. Ga State
11. Texas state
Overall I think this is pretty solid except I would have USA & GS tied for 6th place.
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01-04-2017 02:46 PM |
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