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My MAC non-conf report card
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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My MAC non-conf report card
Here is how my system has things sorted out taking into account all non-conf games. NIU has a game today, but non D1 games are not considered. I have EMU as the team to beat going into the conference season. Note the incredible log jam and close scores from 3-7, great parity in those slots and a sneeze could reshuffle them. My #1 and #2 square off in the first conference game, should be a great game!

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12-31-2016 10:00 AM
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cmufanatic Offline
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RE: My MAC non-conf report card
CMU is one banged up program seems like our starting five has a wrap somewhere on their body hobbling along. Ankle here a knee there nagging injuries could last a while looking forward to our game at emu tue!
12-31-2016 01:26 PM
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emu79 Offline
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RE: My MAC non-conf report card
We must be watching two different emu teams then
12-31-2016 06:11 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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RE: My MAC non-conf report card
(12-31-2016 06:11 PM)emu79 Wrote:  We must be watching two different emu teams then

You mean you don't think they deserve a number 1 ranking to this point?
12-31-2016 06:22 PM
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hilltopper Offline
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RE: My MAC non-conf report card
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12-31-2016 08:03 PM
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pono Offline
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RE: My MAC non-conf report card
Can't see emu at 1 based on season so far, although they have potential to win the league.

Cmu looks solid especially on offense but nothing much against good teams and short on talent with the big guards and small forwards.

Akron played pretty competitive against 2 ranked teams and won most of the rest. Good defense team that has the parts to be balanced on offense.

Toledo played a schedule loaded w good mid majors and won some lost most thr rest closely. Has a couple potential all league guys but a makeshift pg situation.

Kent got a good win at Texas and has the athleticism and rebounding to challenge but has looked really bad on offense a lot.

WMU had a couple good losses to pac12 teams and got reffed out an upset of Washington. Might have best 1 2 guard combo and is well coached

Ball St is under the radar but decent

Buffalo seems down but has gelled down the stretch in recent years

Niu has disappointed a bit but has the pieces to challenge

Ohio looked like best team early but has had a couple poor performances lately

All in all looks like a year where the league has no elite teams maybe not even a real good team but a better than average lower half of the league. I expect a bunch of teams around 11-7 at the top w no one running away
01-01-2017 12:00 AM
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kreed5120 Offline
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RE: My MAC non-conf report card
Kenpom, RPI, and Sargarin all have Akron about 20 spots better than the next best MAC team. I wonder what in your formula causes them to be ranked middle of the pack when every other prominent ranking system is high on them?
01-01-2017 11:16 AM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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RE: My MAC non-conf report card
(01-01-2017 11:16 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Kenpom, RPI, and Sargarin all have Akron about 20 spots better than the next best MAC team. I wonder what in your formula causes them to be ranked middle of the pack when every other prominent ranking system is high on them?

They are top 4 in these rankings, not middle of the pack. I think a few things are coming into play, one is SOS, and the other is defense. They rank out in the bottom half of defense in these rankings.
01-01-2017 07:50 PM
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kreed5120 Offline
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RE: My MAC non-conf report card
(01-01-2017 07:50 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(01-01-2017 11:16 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Kenpom, RPI, and Sargarin all have Akron about 20 spots better than the next best MAC team. I wonder what in your formula causes them to be ranked middle of the pack when every other prominent ranking system is high on them?

They are top 4 in these rankings, not middle of the pack. I think a few things are coming into play, one is SOS, and the other is defense. They rank out in the bottom half of defense in these rankings.

I said middle of the pack because off of your composite numbers they are closer to #7 than #1.
01-02-2017 02:33 AM
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Wadszip Offline
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RE: My MAC non-conf report card
My unscientific final pre-MAC rankings based on KenPom resumes. Obviously, this will get sorted out from here as league play starts.

First number is KenPom rank; second number is my ranking last week

1. Akron (87) (1): The Zips were off, but picked up a top 100 win as Marshall (99) moved up about 10 spots and is the league's second-highest rated win. Georgia Southern moved up to No. 133, which is now the fifth highest-rated win. The Zips still hold on with a league high five top 200 wins.

2. Toledo (142) (2): The Rockets didn't play a D1 team this week and remain at No. 2, though the Loyola win, which was the league's second highest last week is not as strong now as the Ramblers took a pair of setbacks to fall back to No. 140. The Rockets still have the third highest ranked win over No. 108 Evansville. They stay at No. 2 since five of the six losses were to teams ranked No. 101 or higher. Still have three top 200 wins.

3. Central Michigan (161) (3): The Chippewas played to an uninspiring 90-82 win against sub-300 Chicago State, but remain at No. 3. Like Toledo, still have three top 200 wins. Unlike last week (and the Rockets), the Chippewas will have a sub-200 loss at some point tonight when No. 188 Little Rock is recalculated ... lost by 17 at home to UL-Lafayette. Still, I'm holding them steady.

4. Eastern Michigan (109) (5): The Hurons got a blowout win against a against a deceiving No. 189 Long Beach State team. LBSU is probably more like a top 150 team. That win keeps EMU at two in the top 200 ... as Gardner-Webb fell out. Four of the five losses were to teams in the top 87 and worst loss was to No. 153 IUPUI. Hopefully, the days of this team playing four non D1 teams is over.

5. Kent State (149) (11): This was the perfect week for Kent State. Not only did the Flashes break through with the league's first, and best, OOC win against No. 79 Texas, but Wofford also moved into the top 200 at No. 194. The Flashes went from 0 top 200 wins to two, including the highest rated one. On top of that, Wright State and South Dakota both moved into the top 200, eliminating two of the three sub 200 losses.

6. Ohio (104) (4): The Bobcats didn't play a D1 team, but got a boost from No. 130 Georgia Tech, which went to Chapel Hill and handily beat a top 10 UNC team. Still, outside of that GT win, the resume is weak with the other six wins being to teams ranked No. 226 or lower.

7. Buffalo (136) (6): The Bulls didn't get any help with a win against No. 331 Maine. The resume is essentially unchanged, outside of Weber State (147) moving into the top 150. That still is the Bulls' only in the top 200. The Canisius loss is no longer looking horrible, as they are up to No. 157. Five other losses are to teams No. 77 or higher, but the Robert Morris (266) loss holds them back since there isn't much in terms of wins to go on.

8. Ball State (175) (7): The blah resume only got more blah with a win over No. 300 North Florida. The Cardinals, almost amazingly, have six wins to sub 300 teams. The best win is no against No. 245 Bradley. But there still is no losses to sub 200 teams.

9. Northern Illinois (169) (8): No DI game this week, so nothing really changes. Still, just one top 200 win against Indiana State (which they also lost to) and two sub 200 losses.

10. Western Michigan (206) (9): The bright side, got a 30-point win. The down side, it was against the lowest rated team in D1 basketball, Alabama A&M. Again, nothing changes from last week, but James Madison (No. 233) moved up about 25 spots. The other two D1 wins are to two of the worst teams in hoops. They still also have the league's only sub 300 loss and one other outside the top 200. But they still have four close losses against top 100 teams that keeps them this high.

11. Miami (281) (10): Another team that didn't play a D1 game, so not much changes. Just one top 200 win (No. 153 IUPUI), but only one sub 200 loss to No. 267 Delaware in the second game of the year.

12. Bowling Green (222) (12): The Falcons got a nine-point win against No. 311 Norfolk State. That hardly does anything to get out of the basement. They have a top 200 win against No. 185 Murray State, but the other four are to sub 300 teams. Still have the two sub 200 losses.
01-02-2017 11:04 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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RE: My MAC non-conf report card
Seems like WMU is starting to come on. They are putting up very respectable offensive numbers against very good competition. Will be interesting to see how they evolve through the year. Very excited to have conference play starting today!
01-03-2017 01:17 AM
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EagleSam Offline
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RE: My MAC non-conf report card
I think EMU's success will depend a lot on if we get Ty Toney healthy again. We were already thin at guard, but now we have only 6 reliable players without Toney. If we get him back, I'd put our 7-man rotation against any in the conference. But we've been mighty thin for the last few games, and it has showed.

I think the top 5 teams in the conference are Akron, Ohio, Ball State, EMU, and Kent State. Probably in that order. CMU is close, but I have a hard time seeing them sustain the scoring from mostly 2 guys. All in all, I see lots of parity in the conference, but it's Akron's to lose.
01-03-2017 05:12 PM
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HuronDave Offline
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RE: My MAC non-conf report card
(01-02-2017 11:04 PM)Wadszip Wrote:  My unscientific final pre-MAC rankings based on KenPom resumes. Obviously, this will get sorted out from here as league play starts.

First number is KenPom rank; second number is my ranking last week

1. Akron (87) (1): The Zips were off, but picked up a top 100 win as Marshall (99) moved up about 10 spots and is the league's second-highest rated win. Georgia Southern moved up to No. 133, which is now the fifth highest-rated win. The Zips still hold on with a league high five top 200 wins.

2. Toledo (142) (2): The Rockets didn't play a D1 team this week and remain at No. 2, though the Loyola win, which was the league's second highest last week is not as strong now as the Ramblers took a pair of setbacks to fall back to No. 140. The Rockets still have the third highest ranked win over No. 108 Evansville. They stay at No. 2 since five of the six losses were to teams ranked No. 101 or higher. Still have three top 200 wins.

3. Central Michigan (161) (3): The Chippewas played to an uninspiring 90-82 win against sub-300 Chicago State, but remain at No. 3. Like Toledo, still have three top 200 wins. Unlike last week (and the Rockets), the Chippewas will have a sub-200 loss at some point tonight when No. 188 Little Rock is recalculated ... lost by 17 at home to UL-Lafayette. Still, I'm holding them steady.

4. Eastern Michigan (109) (5): The Hurons got a blowout win against a against a deceiving No. 189 Long Beach State team. LBSU is probably more like a top 150 team. That win keeps EMU at two in the top 200 ... as Gardner-Webb fell out. Four of the five losses were to teams in the top 87 and worst loss was to No. 153 IUPUI. Hopefully, the days of this team playing four non D1 teams is over.

5. Kent State (149) (11): This was the perfect week for Kent State. Not only did the Flashes break through with the league's first, and best, OOC win against No. 79 Texas, but Wofford also moved into the top 200 at No. 194. The Flashes went from 0 top 200 wins to two, including the highest rated one. On top of that, Wright State and South Dakota both moved into the top 200, eliminating two of the three sub 200 losses.

6. Ohio (104) (4): The Bobcats didn't play a D1 team, but got a boost from No. 130 Georgia Tech, which went to Chapel Hill and handily beat a top 10 UNC team. Still, outside of that GT win, the resume is weak with the other six wins being to teams ranked No. 226 or lower.

7. Buffalo (136) (6): The Bulls didn't get any help with a win against No. 331 Maine. The resume is essentially unchanged, outside of Weber State (147) moving into the top 150. That still is the Bulls' only in the top 200. The Canisius loss is no longer looking horrible, as they are up to No. 157. Five other losses are to teams No. 77 or higher, but the Robert Morris (266) loss holds them back since there isn't much in terms of wins to go on.

8. Ball State (175) (7): The blah resume only got more blah with a win over No. 300 North Florida. The Cardinals, almost amazingly, have six wins to sub 300 teams. The best win is no against No. 245 Bradley. But there still is no losses to sub 200 teams.

9. Northern Illinois (169) (8): No DI game this week, so nothing really changes. Still, just one top 200 win against Indiana State (which they also lost to) and two sub 200 losses.

10. Western Michigan (206) (9): The bright side, got a 30-point win. The down side, it was against the lowest rated team in D1 basketball, Alabama A&M. Again, nothing changes from last week, but James Madison (No. 233) moved up about 25 spots. The other two D1 wins are to two of the worst teams in hoops. They still also have the league's only sub 300 loss and one other outside the top 200. But they still have four close losses against top 100 teams that keeps them this high.

11. Miami (281) (10): Another team that didn't play a D1 game, so not much changes. Just one top 200 win (No. 153 IUPUI), but only one sub 200 loss to No. 267 Delaware in the second game of the year.

12. Bowling Green (222) (12): The Falcons got a nine-point win against No. 311 Norfolk State. That hardly does anything to get out of the basement. They have a top 200 win against No. 185 Murray State, but the other four are to sub 300 teams. Still have the two sub 200 losses.

Bonus points for referring to EMU as Hurons!04-cheers
01-04-2017 05:43 PM
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Wadszip Offline
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RE: My MAC non-conf report card
(01-04-2017 05:43 PM)HuronDave Wrote:  
(01-02-2017 11:04 PM)Wadszip Wrote:  My unscientific final pre-MAC rankings based on KenPom resumes. Obviously, this will get sorted out from here as league play starts.

First number is KenPom rank; second number is my ranking last week

1. Akron (87) (1): The Zips were off, but picked up a top 100 win as Marshall (99) moved up about 10 spots and is the league's second-highest rated win. Georgia Southern moved up to No. 133, which is now the fifth highest-rated win. The Zips still hold on with a league high five top 200 wins.

2. Toledo (142) (2): The Rockets didn't play a D1 team this week and remain at No. 2, though the Loyola win, which was the league's second highest last week is not as strong now as the Ramblers took a pair of setbacks to fall back to No. 140. The Rockets still have the third highest ranked win over No. 108 Evansville. They stay at No. 2 since five of the six losses were to teams ranked No. 101 or higher. Still have three top 200 wins.

3. Central Michigan (161) (3): The Chippewas played to an uninspiring 90-82 win against sub-300 Chicago State, but remain at No. 3. Like Toledo, still have three top 200 wins. Unlike last week (and the Rockets), the Chippewas will have a sub-200 loss at some point tonight when No. 188 Little Rock is recalculated ... lost by 17 at home to UL-Lafayette. Still, I'm holding them steady.

4. Eastern Michigan (109) (5): The Hurons got a blowout win against a against a deceiving No. 189 Long Beach State team. LBSU is probably more like a top 150 team. That win keeps EMU at two in the top 200 ... as Gardner-Webb fell out. Four of the five losses were to teams in the top 87 and worst loss was to No. 153 IUPUI. Hopefully, the days of this team playing four non D1 teams is over.

5. Kent State (149) (11): This was the perfect week for Kent State. Not only did the Flashes break through with the league's first, and best, OOC win against No. 79 Texas, but Wofford also moved into the top 200 at No. 194. The Flashes went from 0 top 200 wins to two, including the highest rated one. On top of that, Wright State and South Dakota both moved into the top 200, eliminating two of the three sub 200 losses.

6. Ohio (104) (4): The Bobcats didn't play a D1 team, but got a boost from No. 130 Georgia Tech, which went to Chapel Hill and handily beat a top 10 UNC team. Still, outside of that GT win, the resume is weak with the other six wins being to teams ranked No. 226 or lower.

7. Buffalo (136) (6): The Bulls didn't get any help with a win against No. 331 Maine. The resume is essentially unchanged, outside of Weber State (147) moving into the top 150. That still is the Bulls' only in the top 200. The Canisius loss is no longer looking horrible, as they are up to No. 157. Five other losses are to teams No. 77 or higher, but the Robert Morris (266) loss holds them back since there isn't much in terms of wins to go on.

8. Ball State (175) (7): The blah resume only got more blah with a win over No. 300 North Florida. The Cardinals, almost amazingly, have six wins to sub 300 teams. The best win is no against No. 245 Bradley. But there still is no losses to sub 200 teams.

9. Northern Illinois (169) (8): No DI game this week, so nothing really changes. Still, just one top 200 win against Indiana State (which they also lost to) and two sub 200 losses.

10. Western Michigan (206) (9): The bright side, got a 30-point win. The down side, it was against the lowest rated team in D1 basketball, Alabama A&M. Again, nothing changes from last week, but James Madison (No. 233) moved up about 25 spots. The other two D1 wins are to two of the worst teams in hoops. They still also have the league's only sub 300 loss and one other outside the top 200. But they still have four close losses against top 100 teams that keeps them this high.

11. Miami (281) (10): Another team that didn't play a D1 game, so not much changes. Just one top 200 win (No. 153 IUPUI), but only one sub 200 loss to No. 267 Delaware in the second game of the year.

12. Bowling Green (222) (12): The Falcons got a nine-point win against No. 311 Norfolk State. That hardly does anything to get out of the basement. They have a top 200 win against No. 185 Murray State, but the other four are to sub 300 teams. Still have the two sub 200 losses.

Bonus points for referring to EMU as Hurons!04-cheers

LOL, I definitely lean to the left, but still not sure how the PC police got EMU to cave on the name change in that case.
01-05-2017 12:19 AM
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