Heading into the season I think most of us would have expected and taken a 9-2 record, 7-2 v D1. I figured we would sweep the Nashville tournament but lose our two road games against St Bony and Clemson.

While the Clemson showing was subpar I thought the non conference season as a whole was a success.

Thoughts?

When we looked at our non-conference slate prior to the season, many here complained that it was weak. The D-II games certainly helped that case, but to this point, we can safely say our schedule was a lot tougher than any of us thought it would be.

Right now, our strength of schedule is 61. Even if that drops a bit in league play for our various non-conference opponents, it'll still be a very solid ranking. We only faced two Top 100 teams (both in the Top 50) and lost both of those games, but were perfect against everyone else, with 3 wins against teams that could very easily climb into the Top 100 (Saint Bonaventure, ETSU and Toledo).

Yes, I'd say overall that is a success. It's a shame we couldn't pull of a "marquee win", but then again, Charleston (# 58 RPI) represents opportunity there. We'd likely have to go 14-2 or better (with at least one win against Charleston) in CAA play to have any prayer at an at-large bid....but it shouldn't be considered completely out of reach just yet. And even if it is, at the very least, if we do get back to the Big Dance this year, our seeding should definitely be stronger.

The only loss I had penciled in was Clemson. I was worried(wrongly) about ECU because of last year, but thought we would pull it off. And I still believe that had Talley played the entire season, we'd have one loss right now to Clemson. Overall, not bad, but we have got to find a way to get a big win OOC. Last year we had a shot at the Hoyas and failed. Size in the post was our problem once again. Without at least that one big win, we're relying on the CAA tournament to get to the big dance once again. Sorry guys, despite what we do in conference play, our OOC resume does not impress.

(12-29-2016 10:19 AM)82hawk Wrote:  The only loss I had penciled in was Clemson. I was worried(wrongly) about ECU because of last year, but thought we would pull it off. And I still believe that had Talley played the entire season, we'd have one loss right now to Clemson. Overall, not bad, but we have got to find a way to get a big win OOC. Last year we had a shot at the Hoyas and failed. Size in the post was our problem once again. Without at least that one big win, we're relying on the CAA tournament to get to the big dance once again. Sorry guys, despite what we do in conference play, our OOC resume does not impress.

Not only that but I'm willing to bet a month's paycheck that the loss to Clemson did one thing. IF we win the CAAT, we are now guaranteed to be a 13-15 seed.

(12-28-2016 11:32 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  When we looked at our non-conference slate prior to the season, many here complained that it was weak. The D-II games certainly helped that case, but to this point, we can safely say our schedule was a lot tougher than any of us thought it would be.

Right now, our strength of schedule is 61. Even if that drops a bit in league play for our various non-conference opponents, it'll still be a very solid ranking. We only faced two Top 100 teams (both in the Top 50) and lost both of those games, but were perfect against everyone else, with 3 wins against teams that could very easily climb into the Top 100 (Saint Bonaventure, ETSU and Toledo).

Yes, I'd say overall that is a success. It's a shame we couldn't pull of a "marquee win", but then again, Charleston (# 58 RPI) represents opportunity there. We'd likely have to go 14-2 or better (with at least one win against Charleston) in CAA play to have any prayer at an at-large bid....but it shouldn't be considered completely out of reach just yet. And even if it is, at the very least, if we do get back to the Big Dance this year, our seeding should definitely be stronger.

Not a chance. With the loss to Clemson we have ZERO marquee wins that would boost our seeding. If we run through the CAA the BEST we can have is "No bad losses". That's not going to help our seeding, considering our OOC schedule and a weak conference. This isn't the A10.

(12-29-2016 10:39 AM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  

(12-29-2016 10:19 AM)82hawk Wrote:  The only loss I had penciled in was Clemson. I was worried(wrongly) about ECU because of last year, but thought we would pull it off. And I still believe that had Talley played the entire season, we'd have one loss right now to Clemson. Overall, not bad, but we have got to find a way to get a big win OOC. Last year we had a shot at the Hoyas and failed. Size in the post was our problem once again. Without at least that one big win, we're relying on the CAA tournament to get to the big dance once again. Sorry guys, despite what we do in conference play, our OOC resume does not impress.

Not only that but I'm willing to bet a month's paycheck that the loss to Clemson did one thing. IF we win the CAAT, we are now guaranteed to be a 13-15 seed.

Unfortunate, but probably true.

(12-29-2016 10:39 AM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  Not only that but I'm willing to bet a month's paycheck that the loss to Clemson did one thing. IF we win the CAAT, we are now guaranteed to be a 13-15 seed.

If you go 9-9 in the CAA and win upsets in the CAA Tournament you could get a 15 seed. If you go 13-5 in the CAA and win the CAA Tournament, you will be 25-7 against Division I teams on Selection Sunday, and I would be shocked if you got a 15 seed with that record. You're also capable of going better than 13-5 in the CAA. In the RPI you're 83 spots better than the third best RPI in the CAA (meaning the second best RPI other than you). Favoritism of teams in the top conferences won't hurt your seeding relative to conference tournament champions from conferences worse than the CAA. The CAA is 12th in the Conference RPI, so they're ahead of 20 conferences. If the Selection Committee thinks you're better than 20 tournament teams, you'll get a 12 seed. If there were 4 of each seed then being better than 20 tournament teams would get you an 11 seed, but there are 6 16 seeds.

(12-29-2016 07:02 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  

(12-29-2016 10:39 AM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  Not only that but I'm willing to bet a month's paycheck that the loss to Clemson did one thing. IF we win the CAAT, we are now guaranteed to be a 13-15 seed.

If you go 9-9 in the CAA and win upsets in the CAA Tournament you could get a 15 seed. If you go 13-5 in the CAA and win the CAA Tournament, you will be 25-7 against Division I teams on Selection Sunday, and I would be shocked if you got a 15 seed with that record. You're also capable of going better than 13-5 in the CAA. In the RPI you're 83 spots better than the third best RPI in the CAA (meaning the second best RPI other than you). Favoritism of teams in the top conferences won't hurt your seeding relative to conference tournament champions from conferences worse than the CAA. The CAA is 12th in the Conference RPI, so they're ahead of 20 conferences. If the Selection Committee thinks you're better than 20 tournament teams, you'll get a 12 seed. If there were 4 of each seed then being better than 20 tournament teams would get you an 11 seed, but there are 6 16 seeds.

Agreed. The committee usually does a good job of seeding the various mid-low major conference champs correctly/fairly, with a few mess-ups here and there.

A 12-seed would sound about right for us IF we can repeat as CAA champs.