There's still a few more non-conference games left in the December slate for the CAA, which of course includes a monster game @ Clemson, but while we have a bit of a pause for the Holiday, I think we can start to get an idea of how the performances around the league in non-conference play could transfer into league play.

(Note: To preemept the "let's just focus on Clemson" comments, please note that CAA play will begin swiftly after that contest, and thus the turnaround time on producing a write-up like this prior to league play would have likely proven difficult. And as fans, we have the luxury of looking ahead that our team does not!)

(Additional Note: This is not a prediction of final standings. Only a prediction of who has the best shot at beating us for the CAA title.)


Contenders to the Crown(in order of most likely to knock us off our perch):


1. (9-4, # 56 RPI)

Not only is Charleston our most natural, and arguably most fierce, rival these days, they also have put together a heck of a team, especially since joining the league. And though the Seahawks swept the Cougars last season, both games were highly intense and competitive. Charleston reached the objective of keeping the games low-scoring (neither game exceeded 120 total points), but UNCW was able to grind out victories nonetheless.

This year could be different, however, as Earl Grant's squad has grown up quite a bit in a year's time. And with the Cougars' very different style of play compared to the Seahawks already causing problems in past matchups, adding experience under the team's belt will be even more problematic. The Clemson matchup on Wednesday will be very telling as to how we'll handle Charleston, given the Brownell coaching tree ties.

The Cougars have the 2nd best non-conference resume heading into league play, having scored the lone Top 50 win (Davidson on Dec 4) of any CAA team. Redshirt junior guard Joe Chealey was tasked to play 36 minutes in that contest, and answered the call by putting up a final line of 24 points (including 3-5 from three), 5 assists, a pair of steals and no turnovers. Chealey leads the team in scoring, assists and is 2nd on the team in steals as the team's unquestioned leader.

Not only did Charleston beat Davidson, but they played a stretch of 4 straight games in November against teams within the Top 120 of the RPI. After beating a good Boise St. team, they dropped games against UCF, Wake Forest and Villanova. While the latter three games weren't particularly close, Charleston's defense did manage to hold the teams in that 4-game gauntlet to an average of just 62.0 points per game. Charleston is 14th in the nation in scoring defense and 56th in field goal % defense.

Not only do the Cougars play terrific defense, they also protect the ball, averaging just 11.4 turnovers per game (despite their difficult schedule) while amassing 14.9 turnovers forced per contest. So while Charleston likely misses the influence of an offensive juggernaut like Canyon Barry (currently averaging 11.7 ppg in a bench role with the Florida Gators), you know what you're going to get when you play them: 40 minutes of intense defense and disciplined offense. Add in the fact that they will be the host city for the CAA Tournament starting in 2017, and that's a solid recipe for a contender.


2. (8-5, # 95 RPI)

If you're looking for another avenue to beating the Seahawks, Towson has one in mind: Outstanding frontcourt play. While most teams across the D-I landscape seem to be trotting out smaller lineups, Pat Skerry's Tigers go against the grain, with four starters and a 6th man who are all 6-5 or taller. And not only are the Tigers big, they're experienced, led by seniors William Adala Moto and John Davis as well as juniors Eddie Keith II and Mike Morsell.

Towson also has sneakily developed a battle-tested team heading into CAA play. The Tigers have played the 87th-toughest schedule in the country, and in so doing, scored a nice road win against George Mason, a solid home win against Loyola-Maryland, and perhaps their biggest triumph thus far, a recent neutral court victory over Iona. Now they have a 9-day break before beginning league play at home against our very Seahawks.

In the preseason, everyone would have likely guessed that Adala Moto would be Towson's top player. And while that still might be true, he's actually taken a back seat statistically to Morsell. Morsell is averaging 17.4 points, many of which have come from his team-leading 21 made three-pointers, shooting 46.7 % from the field and also taking on a gaudy 29.3 minutes per contest. the Fort Washington, Maryland product has become the central figure to the team's offense.

As a team, it's no surprise to see that the Tigers outrebound their opponents, grabbing an average of 39.7 rebounds per game (35 % of those have come on offense) to 31.9 for opponents. Their rebounding margin places them 23rd in the nation. They're also dominating teams in field goal percentage, to the tune of 44.9 % compared to 39.7 % for opponents (55th in the nation). Towson has rim protectors and glass cleaners for days, forcing teams to make tough decisions with their lineups and recognize that a missed shot on the offensive end will likely be a "one-and-done" possession nearly every time. This will impact us in a big way, given our lack of depth in the post and the rarity of us using Bryan and Cacok on the floor at the same time.

Where Towson appears to be weak is in the category of ball movement. At times this season their offense has looked stagnant, with a bit too much dribbing and isolation/one-on-one situations. The statistics bear that out as well, as their assist/TO ratio is a paltry 0.88. The reason for this partly falls on the fact that the Tigers don't have a true point guard. 5 different players have 20+ assists on the season, but no one has more than 30. DeShaun Morman, a transfer from Cincinnati who sat out last season, may be the closest thing to a point guard the team has, but it is of course difficult to become the immediate floor general for a veteran team. We'll see if roles become more defined for Towson, but until then, this may prove to be their biggest and most exploitable weakness on offense.

Overall, Towson is a team, much like Charleston, with an identity and a skillset they can "hang their hats on". Having a veteran, capable frontcourt and big, scoring guards are quality assets to have. And they're led by a coach whose team has seen tangible improvements every year since he arrived. Remember, it was just three seasons ago that his team won 25 games, and 3 years prior to that, Towson had endured a 15-year stretch without a winning season. They'll be a tough out at the CAA Tournament this season, without a doubt.


3. (7-5, # 130 RPI)

Northeastern has had quite the roller coaster ride in their non-conference slate this season. They started it off by beating an intra-city rival, Boston U. Then they went to Storrs, Connecticut to knock off UCONN, their first win since Jim Calhoun was Northeastern's Head Coach (1985-86 season). While the "other Huskies" are having a bit of a down year, the win meant a lot to the program and also looks pretty good on paper as well.

Then came some low moments for Northeastern. They went 1-2 at the Steve Wright Classic in Boston, losing a rematch with Boston U., as well as a game to a below average Long Island team before beating Maine. They then lost 3 of their next 4, including losses to lowly Cornell and Stony Brook. Still, you could at least say the Huskies played these games tight: During the 7-game stretch, all 5 of their losses were by 6 points or less.

Then came their highest moments of the season thus far: Road wins over Vermont, Michigan State and Oakland. The former 2 are in the Top 100 in the RPI, and of course any win over future Hall of Fame Coach Tom Izzo is cause for some celebration.

Thus the Huskies enter CAA play with a lot of be positive about. They're also a proven commodity in tough environments: 8 of their 12 games this season have been true road contests. 2 others were on a neutral court, and only 2 were home games (both wins, over Boston U. and Kent State). Bill Coen, the second-longest tenured CAA Coach after Tony Shaver, must always be feared at least a little in league play, and this year should be no different despite some turnover in talent.

Senior guard T.J. Williams has made Northeastern "his team", leading the way with 21.5 points per game (tied for 19th in the nation), 5.8 assists (tied for 29th in the nation), 4.8 rebounds and 17 steals. In support of Williams is grad transfer Alex Murphy, who has had stops at Duke and Florida (with a foot injury costing him his Senior season as a Gator) since leaving High School in 2011. Murphy is second on the team in scoring (14.0 ppg), and tops in rebounding (5.5 rpg). And of course there's sophomore Jeremy Miller (9.5 ppg), who displayed a very high ceiling as a freshman and is continuing to develop. Miller is the team's top rim protector, with 16 blocks.

Unlike Charleston or Towson, who do a few things very well, Northeastern is more of a "jack of all trades" kind of team, which has its pros and cons. It means they can beat you in a lot of ways, but it also means they have numerous ways to BE beaten. They don't play elite defense, having given up 71.3 points per game (tied for 171st in the nation) and allowed a .441 opponent field goal percentage (tied for 229th). They turn the ball over a little more than opponents (14.2 turnovers allowed, 12.5 forced per game), and their assist/TO ratio as a team is nearly a 1:1 ratio. So what games with Northeastern will essentially boil down to is whether their trio of Williams, Murphy and Miller are contained or not. All three shoot well above 50 % from the field, but if you limit their touches by forcing turnovers or getting them into foul trouble...you win.


4. (5-5, # 239 RPI)

This is where the rankings get difficult. To me, the Top 3 was very clear, and I'll leave it to you all to argue the order of those 3. The 4-8 spots are much hazier, and this selection is sure to cause some head-scratching at minimum and hate mail at maximum. How could the Tribe, who lost to a 2-9 Hampton squad just three weeks ago, possibly garner the # 4 spot on this list?

The answers are not complicated. First off, there's Tony Shaver. The CAA's longest-tenured Head Coach, it's difficult not to give him the benefit of the doubt. In a league where we saw three coaching changes this past offseason, some continuity might prove helpful. I believe he'll start to have things "figured out", at least SOME of it, by the time we hit late January/February.

Secondly, the talent does not seem to be the biggest problem for the Tribe. Certainly Terry Tarpey and Sean Sheldon were highly significant losses, and that is an understatement. But they still have Omar Prewitt. They still have Daniel Dixon. They still have Greg Malinowski, David Cohn, and several other key, veteran cogs from last year's 20-11 squad (11-7 in league play).

So consider this a ranking based largely on confidence in the system and the talent in place to turn the ship around, rather than the performance to date this season. We know what William & Mary are capable of. They can frustrate you with steals and quick buckets on the other end. They can beat you in a shootout. They spread the floor and either knock down threes or hit a cutter with a perfect pass for an easy layup. They're not a team you can afford to sleep on.


5. (8-5, # 180 RPI)

Hofstra lost a massive amount of talent from last season's squad, headlined by Juan'ya Green. Surprisingly, however, the Pride have rebounded pretty nicely to this point in the season. Yours truly has never thought much of Head Coach Joe Mihalich, especially when it comes to the defensive side of the ball, but he's done a fairly impressive job in non-conference play this season.

In Hofstra's most recent win, an 84-64 victory over Siena, the Pride showed that they, in fact, CAN play some defense. Hofstra held the Saints to just 34.3 % shooting from the field (and 2-14 from three) while shooting at an insane clip from the perimeter (11-21, .521) on their end. With Rokas Gustys back to do the dirty work on the inside (he's # 1 in the nation in rebounding, with 13.5 per game) and several sharpshooters on the outside, Hofstra is a dangerous team heading into CAA play.

The top of the aforementioned sharpshooters is freshman Eli Pemberton, already making a strong case for Freshman Player of the Year. The Middletown, Connecticut product has knocked down 28 of 58 threes (.483), a percentage which ranks him 16th in the nation. Pemberton's perimeter success has made him the unlikely scoring leader for the Pride so far this season.

Pemberton is only second on the team in three-point attempts, however, as teammate Brian Bernardi has taken 82 such shots, though he has been much less efficient (.378). Pemberton and Bernardi have combined for 140 of the team's 301 three-point attempts, which as a team ranks 69th in the nation. Moreover, because of the emphasis on perimeter shooting, Gustys has been emphasized less, ranking 5th on the team in scoring (9.8 ppg) and being forced to get a lot of his points off offensive rebounds (4.2 per game, 8th in the nation). One would think Gustys could play a role in attracting attention then dishing to his shooters, but with only 15 assists in 13 games, that hasn't been happening.

The one area where Hofstra has most certainly improved on from last season is depth. Whereas Hofstra had 4 players who garnered 34 minutes per game or more last season, no player has been used that heavily thus far in the season. Coach Mihalich has extended the bench to allow for a rotation of about 7-9 players each game, falling more in line with what you'd expect from a typical team.

Overall, we know what to expect our of Hofstra, which as we know, has its positives and negatives. It's important to have an identity without being TOO predictable, but I do think Hofstra tends to lean towards the latter. Certainly Coach Keatts was able to figure the Pride out a bit last season, beating them 2 out of 3 times despite having a slightly less talented team than Hofstra's. This year, the talent scales are shifted in the opposite direction, meaning Mihalich will have to do far better against Keatts this time around. And if they spend their games against UNCW launching threes, all the better: The Seahawks rank 98th in the nation in three-point defense, and long misses on one end tend to lead to fast breaks and quick points on the other.


6. (6-6, # 151 RPI)

The Dragons may well have hit a home run with their coaching hire following the end to the Bruiser Flint era. Zach Spiker, coming from Army, made a ton of sense as a hire. With recruiting ties not too far from Philadelphia and having won at a school that has proven very difficult to win at, it had the makings of a perfect marriage for Drexel.

And so far, the returns have been strong. Two of Spiker's first recruits, Kurk Lee and Kari Jonsson, have been a smashing early success, ranking 2nd and 4th on the team in scoring, respectively. Lee, a lightning quick Baltimore product and well-known gym rat, has assumed point guard duties immediately for Coach Spiker, and has amassed 5.4 assists per game (tied for 52nd in the nation), as well as a very impressive 2.03 assist/turnover ratio. Jonsson, an Icelandic product with a three point percentage of 43.1, has already been nicknamed by Drexel fans as "The Ice Man". This freshman backcourt duo has a very strong future ahead.

Meanwhile, Senior forward Rodney Williams has taken his game to another level, averaging a gaudy 17.1 points, 6.3 rebounds and a .536 shooting clip. Given that Williams is similar to the Cacok mold in that he is listed at 6-7 but plays bigger, AND can run the floor, this would be a gem of a matchup when UNCW and Drexel face off....except that this would be Chris Flemmings' duty. 6-8, 240 lbs. junior Austin Williams plays the "5" for Drexel, and leads the team with 15 blocks.

Drexel hasn't just performed well on the individual level, either. They beat a fairly evenly matched North Texas team in a true road test in November, and more recently won road contests against Lafayette, High Point, and Quinnipiac. While these aren't great teams by any stretch, it's great to see the Dragons winning all 4 of these "50/50" contests in their opponents' gym, and a real sign of quick growth under Coach Spiker. Certainly they've had down moments, like a blowout loss to a beatable Niagara team, but the pros have easily outweight the cons through 12 games of the Spiker era.

What's more is that Drexel has completely changed their approach, moving on from the plodding, methodical type of offense that Bruiser Flint ran to an uptempo, explosive method of play. The tangible impact has been immediate, as the Dragons are averaging 77.2 points per game compared to 63.1 last season (22.3 % increase).

With a capable frontcourt and up and coming guards, Drexel will be no easy test, especially if the fans show up for the game in Philadelphia. The league overall is more competitive than we ever thought it would be, and Drexel is one of the "sneaky" reasons why, despite a new coach and new system.


7. (7-5, # 146 RPI)

It is likely not fair to place Elon this low in the rankings. Certainly they've proven that they can avoid "bad losses" and compete at a high level against quality competition. In Year 1 in the CAA, they went 6-12, with 4 of those wins coming consecutively in late February-March. That included a win over UNCW. In Year 2, they went 7-4 in their non-conference games, and improved to 7-11 in conference play. Certainly, under 8th-year coach Matt Matheny, even more improvement can and should be expected. And the results so far have been good. They won a 3-game tournament in Illinois and are 6-0 against RPI 200+ teams. Even their losses so far this season have been competitive: Their average margin of defeat was 8.0 despite facing the likes of Duke and Georgetown.

But basketball isn't just about who you've played and beaten. It comes down to matchups. And this thread is about who can topple US, not what the final standings will be. And Elon simply does not match up well at all with Coach Keatts' squad.

Why, do you ask? Because of Elon's dependence on perimeter shots. As stated previously about Hofstra, an over-reliance on three pointers plays into UNCW's strengths. The Phoenix have attempted even more than Hofstra (325, tied for 35th nationally), a live-or-die mentality that we can live with: We have a lineup with four guards, several of them bigger than Elon's, who can defend the perimeter, and then score quickly off of misses. Elon attempts to turn games into shootouts. And this is the wrong year to attempt to do that to us.

Elon's best hope at a mismatch is redshirt junior forward Brian Dawkins. The 6-8, 240 lbs product from Jacksonville, Florida is a true "Stretch 5": He's an extremely efficient shooter from the outside, picking and choosing his moments wisely. He's made 20 of 29 (.690) from the perimeter, which will force Coach Keatts to either stick Flemmings on him OR hope that Cacok can cover him far away from the basket without costing us rebounds. Dawkins was especially troublesome against Duke, against whom he made 4 of 4 from long range and 7-13 overall.

Even Tyler Seibring, another 6-8 big man, has spent much of the season testing his range, but to much less effect. He is 14-53 (.264 on the season), making him a likelier candidate to be guarded by Cacok. Playing any zone whatsoever against the Phoenix would be a fool's errand, and Coach Keatts has never been one to use a zone unless absolutely called for.

Saavy veteran Luke Eddy is capable of causing damage, as are sophomores Steven Santa Ana and Dainan Swoope. But when you look at the whole as opposed to the sum of the parts, there simply does not appear to be any clear paths to victory for Elon other than completely going bananas with their three point percentage. While Elon are a good squad capable of beating some decent teams, they've also gone 2-17 against Top 100 RPI teams, and 7-31 against the Top 200, since joining the CAA. That limited upside from an historical perspective coupled with their gameplan is what pushes Elon lower on this list than what might be expected.


8. (6-6, # 225 RPI)

While it shouldn't be TOO difficult to upgrade from Monte Ross, Delaware fans are likely cautiously optimistic about their new coach nonetheless. Martin Ingelsby, a Notre Dame assistant, takes over a Blue Hens program largely devoid of talent, and any kind of success he can cobble together this year will likely be appreciated and failures will be treated with patience. Right off the bat, the Blue Hens won a nice road game against Bradley on November 13th, later beat intra-state rival Delaware State, and also knocked off Marist, the latter two at home. Not bad.

What else does Delaware have going for them? Their leading scorer is a freshman, Ryan Daly. They do have a decent veteran nucleus, with two key seniors Cazmon Hayes and Devonne Pinkard, with junior Anthony Mosley and redshirt sophomores Chivarsky Corbett and Darian Bryant (George Washington transfer) helping to balance the classes.

But overall this isn't an exciting group just yet, and their overall performance is indicative of that. Despite playing against the 268th ranked schedule, they haven't taken full advantage of their opposition, averaging only 65.2 points per game (66.2 for opponents), forcing just 9.75 turnovers per contest, blocking just 29 shots (38 for opponents) and accumulating only 143 assists. In short, they're not doing much right, and as the level of competition accelerates in CAA play, they can't depend on playing any more weak teams other than perhaps the next one on this list.


9. (1-11, # 341 RPI)

James Madison......What happened to you? Just months ago some of us (not all) were praising the administration for having the desire to get something more out of their basketball program than what Matt Brady provided. With a losing record overall in CAA games during the 8-year Matt Brady tenure, it made some sense at the time provided that the Dukes had a plan going forward on how to improve.

But there seems to be no plan in Harrisonburg. None at all. The new hire, Louis Rowe, seemed at first glance to be a nice safe choice. Rowe, a JMU alum, gave fans the sense that he'd at least get along with the administration, which was a problem that plagued Matt Brady throughout his tenure.

But Rowe may not have been prepared to take over a program just yet. His playing days didn't end until 2004, when he spent stints with various professional teams in Europe. And it wasn't until 2010 that he became an assistant coach in the D-I ranks, with his alma mater. He then had short stints over the subsequent 4 years as an assistant with Rider, FIU and Bowling Green culminating in his hiring as the 10th head coach in JMU history. That's not a whole lot of time "in the field", though of course there have been greener coaches who have had success before.

Rowe wasn't given much talent, either. With Ron Curry gone, Rowe had to make do with senior big men Yohanny Dalembert and Tom Vodanovich, senior guard Jackson Kent, junior guard Joey McLean, and a host of other role players. Dalembert in particular has always been supremely talented, but has always had limitations, most importantly being that he can only play about 20 minutes per game. The rest were simply sidekicks to the Ron Curry show last season.

Even still, nothing could have prepared Dukes fans for this. As one poster here labeled "The worst basketball" he has ever seen (which speaks volumes, given that JMU had many rough years after the Lefty Driesell era ended in 1997), the Dukes have largely been steamrolled despite playing the nation's 293rd-ranked schedule. They lost by 24 to a middling Rice team. They lost by 20 to a Richmond team that is not having a great season. They had a lot of close losses, sure, but it's easy to cherry pick those. What's not easy to do is to look at the big picture and fully understand what the administration was thinking making Rowe "the guy".

And if JMU's play hasn't at all been aesthetically pleasing, their numbers are even worse. Their 64.3 points per game, in today's high-scoring NCAA, ranks them 324th out of 351 schools. They're shooting .327 from three-point range, which ranks them 260th nationally. Their 12.4 assists per game ranks 266th. They're averaging 17.0 turnovers and have a -6.5 turnover margin, which rank 337th and 343rd, respectively. And as a reminder, this is against a weak schedule overall. Yeah, that's bad.

So where do the Dukes go this year as a team and forward as a program? Not a clue. But there's one silver lining: This administration tied themselves to this decision. They fired a mediocre coach and replaced him with, possibly, an awful one. If results don't start coming, and fast, the hope would be that those at the top will make big, sweeping changes when it comes to the handling of JMU Basketball. Stay tuned!

Great write up my friend.

If Charleston can play "90 minutes of intense defense", we don't stand a chance....:-)

Nice work 08

(12-24-2016 09:19 AM)82hawk Wrote:  If Charleston can play "90 minutes of intense defense", we don't stand a chance....:-)

LOL. That's just how dangerous they are!

So I just realized I neglected a rather obvious reason why W&M garnered the # 4 spot in this particular format: Shaver is 3-1 against Keatts since the latter's hiring.

I suppose repression is the reason why I failed to note that! 4 great games between the 2 teams but only one glorious result and 3 that ended in despair.

(12-24-2016 03:43 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  So I just realized I neglected a rather obvious reason why W&M garnered the # 4 spot in this particular format: Shaver is 3-1 against Keatts since the latter's hiring.

I suppose repression is the reason why I failed to note that! 4 great games between the 2 teams but only one glorious result and 3 that ended in despair.

I think the main disagreement with having them so high right now is the overall direction of those programs since Keatts' hire. UNCW has not simply stayed the same or regressed but vastly improved from last year. WM is declining... quick. Their loss of Tarpey seems to have really hurt them on the defensive end. That guy was a one man wrecking crew on defense.

(12-24-2016 04:06 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  I think the main disagreement with having them so high right now is the overall direction of those programs since Keatts' hire. UNCW has not simply stayed the same or regressed but vastly improved from last year. WM is declining... quick. Their loss of Tarpey seems to have really hurt them on the defensive end. That guy was a one man wrecking crew on defense.

Eh, it'll take a month or 2 worth of CAA games for there to be an argument that W&M's program is truly on the decline. They're certainly nowhere near as good as they were the last few years, and this may indeed be a down year, but Shaver deserves the benefit of the doubt.

And I think a lot of their issues, while strange, are fixable. Omar Prewitt seems to struggle on when he needs to be "the man" and when he needs to work within the flow of the offense. They're shooting poorly from the free throw line. Daniel Dixon hasn't been himself. Their defense, while never elite under Shaver, has been disjointed and ineffective. These are all things that stand to improve. Scheme-wise, Shaver has been experimenting with some "exotic" zone looks on defense. Everything else will depend on roles becoming more defined.

But meanwhile, the effort has been there, and the talent is not lacking when it comes to being a competitive CAA team. They showed flashes of it against Rhode Island in their last outing. Maybe they don't have enough firepower with this year's team to win the league, but certainly they have enough for them to be dangerous. By the time March roles around, I see them finishing in the top 6 and listed as one of the last teams we'd like to face in Charleston.

Past performance doesn't predict future outcomes. William and Mary is not the same team as two years ago or last year, and neither are we. We are far better and they are worse. Unfortunately for the Tribe, Keatts arrived when they had some of the best talent they've ever had.

The first year Keatts was here, Marcus Thornton would take over games and will the Tribe to win on his own. Last year, Tarpey used his aggressiveness along with the interior presence of Sheldon to punish the Seahawks on offense, and their zone effectively shut us down without any post play and weak three point shooting. Everything has changed. Zone UNCW...PLEASE zone UNCW, and we will devastate you with 3's. Also, Cacok is going to place a lot of pressure on any William and Mary post player to match his ability to run and score. And without the interior presence that collapsed our defense with help, those open three's they enjoyed in the past are gone. Keatts has figured out he'd rather run shooters off the 3 point line and give up drives.

I just don't see the Tribe matching up well at all with UNCW, and there is nothing they do on offense, defense or on the boards that scares me. I'm far more worried about CofC, Towson, NU, Hofstra and even Elon.

Nice write up.

From the NU end, the only thing you didn't mention, is that NU also is just as big as Towson in the front court.

No one in the league has 3 guys 6-10 or taller. Especially now that Ford is in the mix.

(12-24-2016 05:55 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Past performance doesn't predict future outcomes.

If you can say the last 2 years don't impact any projections of their future performance, then I can retort by saying their performance in non-conference play this year won't predict their outcomes in conference games, no?

Shaver is still the Head Coach and at least some of the talent is back from last year. Thus, there has to at least be SOME predictive value of BOTH the last couple years as WELL as their performance in non-conference play. I simply chose to side with the former being more important than the latter.

If they truly play lousy in CAA play I'll of course adjust my thinking, but for now, I still would put W&M as more dangerous than Hofstra, Drexel or Elon, though certainly not as dangerous as Charleston, Towson or Northeastern.

(12-24-2016 05:58 PM)geewizNU Wrote:  Nice write up.

From the NU end, the only thing you didn't mention, is that NU also is just as big as Towson in the front court.

No one in the league has 3 guys 6-10 or taller. Especially now that Ford is in the mix.

Dear lord....I almost forgot about Quincy's little bro. How's he look?

You do a good job Nation! And, I think that C of C is the biggest threat. You could see a NE making a run in the tourney too.

(12-24-2016 06:28 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  

(12-24-2016 05:58 PM)geewizNU Wrote:  Nice write up.

From the NU end, the only thing you didn't mention, is that NU also is just as big as Towson in the front court.

No one in the league has 3 guys 6-10 or taller. Especially now that Ford is in the mix.

Dear lord....I almost forgot about Quincy's little bro. How's he look?

He made his first appearance at MSU. he got good minutes when Miller got hurt and both he and Anthony Green got into foul trouble. Sajon held his own defensively.

He just adds more depth.