https://www.ksl.com/?sid=42570816&nid=294

Some interesting points from Jason Buck. Boise State surpassed them in national acclaim in football. Regain their status like they had in the 70's, 80's and 90's. Get a same deal like Boise State. Join either the MWC or the AAC. This could be the opening for the AAC to grab BYU, Boise State, San Diego State and Colorado State. AAC could go past the Big 12 in strength in football and possibly basketball.

This was only a reporter's opinion, not BYU's opinion. They are either staying Indy or dropping football.

(12-15-2016 07:55 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  This was only a reporter's opinion, not BYU's opinion. They are either staying Indy or dropping football.

It is not a reporter's opinion. It is an opinion of a former BYU football player. Since he is an alumni of the school. You got to wonder if BYU are getting pressure from the alumni, fans, faculty and boasters to rejoin a conference since they are not doing well in football as an Independent.

Expanding the stadium to 80K is unnecessary.

An interesting point of view from a former jock. He wants BYU to join a weak conference that it can dominate every year, allowing them to play a handful of OOC games against name opponents. That strategy, he says, is designed to eventually get BYU an invite to a P5 conference.

That was BYU's strategy several decades ago, when they posted gaudy records against inferior competition. All it got them then was an annual trip to San Diego. Why would it be different now?

I wonder which weak conference he had in mind for his alma mater?

Jason Buck has been outspoken against independence since they first made that move. Patrick Kinahan is rehashing Buck's recent appearances on local radio for his other job--as a columnist for KSL. Overall, there are things people agree with him on and things they don't.

Things people generally agree with that Buck says:
- Being in a conference is better than being independent due to rivalries and building to a conference championship at the end of the season.
- BYU does not currently have the same national acclaim they had during the LaVell Edwards years in the 70s-90s.
- Selling out a 80k seat stadium and dominating competition (he said something like going undefeated 3 out of 5 years and regularly getting to a NY6 bowl) would increase national attention on the program.

Now comes the caveats....
- When Kinahan and his co-host pressed Buck on WHICH conference he felt BYU should join he hedged--saying that is AD Tom Holmoe's job to figure out. He also admitted that the MWC is not the same conference that it used to be and that the AAC isn't a good fit regionally.
- In discussing the reasons for going independent in the first place, Buck admitted that there were some good reasons and that he would "give them a pass" on that decision--but long-term independence isn't the answer.
- When asked if a reasonable path forward would be to look to conference realignment when the grant of rights/tv contract renegotiation happens in another 7 years or so, Buck said that the team can't wait that long....but also did not have a solution on where the right place would be to go.

This article certainly doesn't mean that there is broad pressure from the alumni base to join the MWC at this point in time. And as has been said all along, if a P5 conference invite came along, BYU would certainly make that move. But until then, there isn't a G5 conference alternative that wouldn't harm them from a revenue, exposure, and recruiting standpoint.

(12-15-2016 07:55 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  This was only a reporter's opinion, not BYU's opinion. They are either staying Indy or dropping football.

(12-15-2016 08:33 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  It is not a reporter's opinion. It is an opinion of a former BYU football player. Since he is an alumni of the school. You got to wonder if BYU are getting pressure from the alumni, fans, faculty and boasters to rejoin a conference since they are not doing well in football as an Independent.

You will have to help me with the definition of "not doing well".
2011 10-3, Won Armed Forces Bowl vs Tulsa 24-21
2012 8-5, Won Poinsettia Bowl vs San Diego State 23-6
2013 8-5, Lost Fight Hunger Bowl vs Washington 16-31
2014 8-5, Lost Miami Beach Bowl vs Memphis 48-55
2015 9-4, Lost Las Vegas Bowl vs Utah 28-35
2016 8-4, Playing in Poinsettia Bowl vs Wyoming

BYU is certainly not world-beaters here but that record as an indy is above average I would think.

(12-15-2016 08:57 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Expanding the stadium to 80K is unnecessary.

Agreed.

As much as a boost of some combination of BYU, Boise State, San Diego State, Air Force, Army and/or Colorado State would help the AAC, the fact of the matter is that unless those schools boost the value of the conference, and, in turn significantly boosts the revenue of those schools with added travel, an expansion of further west schools is not happening - despite the intrigue and viewership that occur as a result of it.

Until ESPN (or a competitive network) puts the money down for the AAC to do that, we can only fantasize.

BYU is still very much a national brand and program. Despite independence being a bit more of a challenge than originally hoped, they are still able to schedule strong teams around the country. Not getting invited to the Big 12 may be a blessing in disguise in the longterm.

(12-15-2016 09:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  An interesting point of view from a former jock. He wants BYU to join a weak conference that it can dominate every year, allowing them to play a handful of OOC games against name opponents. That strategy, he says, is designed to eventually get BYU an invite to a P5 conference.

That was BYU's strategy several decades ago, when they posted gaudy records against inferior competition. All it got them then was an annual trip to San Diego. Why would it be different now?

I wonder which weak conference he had in mind for his alma mater?

Because the top G5 champion now is guaranteed a spot in a big New Years Day bowl.

(12-15-2016 10:34 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  As much as a boost of some combination of BYU, Boise State, San Diego State, Air Force, Army and/or Colorado State would help the AAC, the fact of the matter is that unless those schools boost the value of the conference, and, in turn significantly boosts the revenue of those schools with added travel, an expansion of further west schools is not happening - despite the intrigue and viewership that occur as a result of it.

Until ESPN (or a competitive network) puts the money down for the AAC to do that, we can only fantasize.

BYU is still very much a national brand and program. Despite independence being a bit more of a challenge than originally hoped, they are still able to schedule strong teams around the country. Not getting invited to the Big 12 may be a blessing in disguise in the longterm.

There are a couple of threads on the AAC Board reflecting ratings and total viewership numbers for the FBS conferences. In both threads, those numbers suggest the AAC, which was a totally unknown quantity and was in danger of falling apart when it signed its current deal with ESPN, will see a big raise on its next contract now that it has established both stability and a very attractive ratings track record.

(12-15-2016 08:33 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(12-15-2016 07:55 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  This was only a reporter's opinion, not BYU's opinion. They are either staying Indy or dropping football.

It is not a reporter's opinion. It is an opinion of a former BYU football player. Since he is an alumni of the school. You got to wonder if BYU are getting pressure from the alumni, fans, faculty and boasters to rejoin a conference since they are not doing well in football as an Independent.

The ONLY opinion that matters at BYU is that of the Mormon Church itself. The LDS leadership's actions have made it pretty clear that the purpose of BYU sports is to have maximum exposure in order to aid getting their message out to the world along with controlling as much of that message as possible. Being independent fits both counts better than being in a G5 league.

Also, BYU will simply not relegate itself to being in a structurally inferior conference compared to the University of Utah. Everyone that talks about access bowls, conference rivalries, etc. are COMPLETELY missing that aspect. Being independent allows for an argument that BYU is still more "special" than Utah (e.g. BYU can get a TV deal with ESPN in a way that Utah never would be able to do), whereas joining a G5 league would mean moving to a literal ghetto compared where Utah lives. That's just not reasonably foreseeable.

MWC and AAC fans just need to live with the fact that they have about as much chance as getting BYU at this point than Notre Dame. Having a 1-in-60ish chance at an access bowl slot does NOT trump having the higher perceived prestige of being independent (assuming that you choose to do, unlike being forced to do so like New Mexico State), making more money from ESPN, being able to schedule more P5 teams every single year, control more content on BYUtv and, maybe most importantly, not have a complete 100% admission that they are in an inferior place compared to Utah.

I have no connection to BYU at all. I just have an allergic reaction when biased people tell a party that something is supposedly better for them by joining those biased people when any unbiased rational person from the outside looking in would say otherwise. For BYU's goals, there's no rational reason to choose a G5 league over independence. If BYU eventually gets a P5 invite, then that's certainly better than independence for them.

Besides, if BYU couldn't get into the Big 12 in their current situation, then going to a G5 league (where they're playing fewer P5 teams and making less TV money) is NOT going to aid them down the road in getting a P5 invite. Frankly, the primary reason why BYU isn't a P5 league is due to political (both social and personal) factors much more so than anything with their performance or actual conference realignment value. Under traditional conference realignment metrics such as brand value, fan base and TV value, BYU would be in a P5 league already without any question. It's the off-the-field political and academic freedom issues that are holding BYU back... and that's going to be the case whether they're in a G5 league or independent.

(12-15-2016 10:25 AM)f1do Wrote:  

(12-15-2016 07:55 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  This was only a reporter's opinion, not BYU's opinion. They are either staying Indy or dropping football.

(12-15-2016 08:33 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  It is not a reporter's opinion. It is an opinion of a former BYU football player. Since he is an alumni of the school. You got to wonder if BYU are getting pressure from the alumni, fans, faculty and boasters to rejoin a conference since they are not doing well in football as an Independent.

You will have to help me with the definition of "not doing well".
2011 10-3, Won Armed Forces Bowl vs Tulsa 24-21
2012 8-5, Won Poinsettia Bowl vs San Diego State 23-6
2013 8-5, Lost Fight Hunger Bowl vs Washington 16-31
2014 8-5, Lost Miami Beach Bowl vs Memphis 48-55
2015 9-4, Lost Las Vegas Bowl vs Utah 28-35
2016 8-4, Playing in Poinsettia Bowl vs Wyoming

BYU is certainly not world-beaters here but that record as an indy is above average I would think.

(12-15-2016 08:57 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Expanding the stadium to 80K is unnecessary.

Agreed.

But, they never got to a NY6 bowl like Boise State. With Wyoming getting stronger, New Mexico is getting better. Colorado State have been good recently, San Diego State winning. Air Force with a winning record. The rest of the conference are playing better. Not all 12 be 6-6 every year, but on the field in conference play is getting stronger.

(12-15-2016 10:45 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  But, they never got to a NY6 bowl like Boise State. With Wyoming getting stronger, New Mexico is getting better. Colorado State have been good recently, San Diego State winning. Air Force with a winning record. The rest of the conference are playing better. Not all 12 be 6-6 every year, but on the field in conference play is getting stronger.

The MWC's problem has always been the bottom half of the league (although the teams may rotate a bit from bottom half to top half and vice versa). The bottom half this year all have Sagarin ratings of 115 or lower. Boise State did make a NY6 bowl in 2014. Then Houston (AAC) in 2015 and Western Michigan (MAC) in 2016. If this shot at a bowl game was the most important thing, great. But it isn't and all the negatives shared repeatedly by different posters on the board can't be ignored. Besides, if you listen to Wyoming, New Mexico, Air Force, and Colorado State, they don't want BYU back and don't want to even play them anymore.

This year, BYU went 8-4 against a schedule comparable to most P5 schools. They played 6 P5 schools:

Utah, Arizona and UCLA from the PAC
West Virginia (Big XII)
Michigan St (B1G)
Mississippi St (SEC)

plus Boise State, Cincinnati, UMass and Utah State from G5.

It sounds like what Buck is saying is that they would do better to play a cupcake league schedule in the G5 to pad their win count, rather than test themselves against P5 level teams. That sounds like an admission that BYU is (and was) a second rate football program. I don't think he will find many folks at BYU who will buy into that thinking.

Only 4 P5 teams on BYU's schedule next year (vs. LSU in Houston, @ Mississippi State, Utah & Wisconsin in Provo).

(12-15-2016 10:34 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  As much as a boost of some combination of BYU, Boise State, San Diego State, Air Force, Army and/or Colorado State would help the AAC, the fact of the matter is that unless those schools boost the value of the conference, and, in turn significantly boosts the revenue of those schools with added travel, an expansion of further west schools is not happening - despite the intrigue and viewership that occur as a result of it.

Until ESPN (or a competitive network) puts the money down for the AAC to do that, we can only fantasize.

BYU is still very much a national brand and program. Despite independence being a bit more of a challenge than originally hoped, they are still able to schedule strong teams around the country. Not getting invited to the Big 12 may be a blessing in disguise in the longterm.

Some combination of Houston, Memphis, ECU, Cincy and the Florida schools would be a good addition to the MWC :)

(12-15-2016 11:09 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Only 4 P5 teams on BYU's schedule next year (vs. LSU in Houston, @ Mississippi State, Utah & Wisconsin in Provo).

Right, but a G5 school is typically lucky to get 1 home game against a P5 school at all. To have a neutral site game plus 2 home games against P5 schools is something that is virtually impossible to do as a G5 school. Plus, BYU is still able to cherry-pick the handful of G5 schools that they *do* want to play (such as Boise State and Utah State) - you're not going to find too many G5 programs turning down a home-and-home series with BYU. It's not as if though they're missing out on playing any MWC and AAC schools that they believe are worth playing.

If BYU is dipping down to only 2 P5 opponents per year, then we might start having an argument about whether they're truly having scheduling issues. However, their low end of P5 games seems to be 4 per year... and even if it's "only" 4 per year, that's still significantly better than what they could do as a G5 school.

(12-15-2016 10:40 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-15-2016 10:34 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  As much as a boost of some combination of BYU, Boise State, San Diego State, Air Force, Army and/or Colorado State would help the AAC, the fact of the matter is that unless those schools boost the value of the conference, and, in turn significantly boosts the revenue of those schools with added travel, an expansion of further west schools is not happening - despite the intrigue and viewership that occur as a result of it.

Until ESPN (or a competitive network) puts the money down for the AAC to do that, we can only fantasize.

BYU is still very much a national brand and program. Despite independence being a bit more of a challenge than originally hoped, they are still able to schedule strong teams around the country. Not getting invited to the Big 12 may be a blessing in disguise in the longterm.

There are a couple of threads on the AAC Board reflecting ratings and total viewership numbers for the FBS conferences. In both threads, those numbers suggest the AAC, which was a totally unknown quantity and was in danger of falling apart when it signed its current deal with ESPN, will see a big raise on its next contract now that it has established both stability and a very attractive ratings track record.

Oh, I very much agree that the AAC is due for a raise to the $5-$7 million range for each school. My point is that that ESPN (or whatever network) has to see that as well, and offer it. Money drives everything, and although stats/research/data support it, they have to offer and spend that money first.

(12-15-2016 11:29 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(12-15-2016 11:09 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Only 4 P5 teams on BYU's schedule next year (vs. LSU in Houston, @ Mississippi State, Utah & Wisconsin in Provo).

Right, but a G5 school is typically lucky to get 1 home game against a P5 school at all. To have a neutral site game plus 2 home games against P5 schools is something that is virtually impossible to do as a G5 school. Plus, BYU is still able to cherry-pick the handful of G5 schools that they *do* want to play (such as Boise State and Utah State) - you're not going to find too many G5 programs turning down a home-and-home series with BYU. It's not as if though they're missing out on playing any MWC and AAC schools that they believe are worth playing.

If BYU is dipping down to only 2 P5 opponents per year, then we might start having an argument about whether they're truly having scheduling issues. However, their low end of P5 games seems to be 4 per year... and even if it's "only" 4 per year, that's still significantly better than what they could do as a G5 school.

The real problem is a lot of these home games are the result of 2-for-1 deals. Lots of schools can get home games vs P5s if they do 2-for-one deals. BYU has a done a number of 2-for-1 deals---thats not sustainable. At some point, they are going to have to pay the piper so to speak and their future home schedules will suffer. That said, I don't think they are going to join a conference. The church isn't concerned about football on the field (or even the Provo home schedule) as much as they are concerned about football as a church outreach program. That vision of the program will keep them independent until a P5 alternative comes along.

(12-15-2016 11:35 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-15-2016 11:29 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(12-15-2016 11:09 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Only 4 P5 teams on BYU's schedule next year (vs. LSU in Houston, @ Mississippi State, Utah & Wisconsin in Provo).

Right, but a G5 school is typically lucky to get 1 home game against a P5 school at all. To have a neutral site game plus 2 home games against P5 schools is something that is virtually impossible to do as a G5 school. Plus, BYU is still able to cherry-pick the handful of G5 schools that they *do* want to play (such as Boise State and Utah State) - you're not going to find too many G5 programs turning down a home-and-home series with BYU. It's not as if though they're missing out on playing any MWC and AAC schools that they believe are worth playing.

If BYU is dipping down to only 2 P5 opponents per year, then we might start having an argument about whether they're truly having scheduling issues. However, their low end of P5 games seems to be 4 per year... and even if it's "only" 4 per year, that's still significantly better than what they could do as a G5 school.

The real problem is a lot of these home games are the result of 2-for-1 deals. Lots of schools can get home games vs P5s if they do 2-for-one deals. BYU has a done a number of 2-for-1 deals---thats not sustainable. At some point, they are going to have to pay the piper so to speak and their future home schedules will suffer. That said, I don't think they are going to join a conference. The church isn't concerned about football on the field as much as they are concerned about football as a church outreach program.

I think the 2-for-1 series (from my recollection includes USC, Stanford and Michigan State) were signed in the first couple of years of BYU's independence where time was of the essence to simply get enough games on the schedule. The more recent P5 scheduling deals (such as Arizona State and Washington on top of the traditional Utah rivalry game) have been straight home-and-home series.

Regardless, I think fans in the MWC and AAC are constantly *really* overstating BYU's supposed scheduling issues. BYU is getting a healthy and regular number of P5 opponents.

I agree with your last point that the LDS Church has a very different mindset for what it wants from BYU football than any other school. This would be like the Vatican controlling Notre Dame's independence vs. conference decision. The control of BYU's football program goes WAY beyond the alums and boosters that you'd typically see at other schools.