(12-14-2016 05:07 PM)ericsaid Wrote: It still doesn't make sense unless you see what amounts to a box truck flying through the sky. The volume doesn't justify the means or cost. There is also an increased risk to those living below and around where these drones will fly which will drive up cost. Technology will drive up cost, risk to goods will drive up cost. There are far too many cost drivers in this particular situation to make this even remotely economical within the next 50 or so years.
As explained, no need for 'big' drones to make small deliveries.
Initially, the volume (i.e. market share) that these drones take will be negligible, however as the infrastructure is built up for them (e.g. distribution centers, landing areas, programmers, etc.) and the marginal efficiencies increase, the more rapid this transition will become.
To the risk point, risk is always there to be mitigated, though never entirely eliminated. Just off the top of my head, these drones can follow the same roads already laid out for the automobile, only at 2 or 300 feet which might minimize the chance for inadvertent accidents (though, like with anything, they will occur; that's why we have insurance).
Finally, you say technology will drive up cost; history states otherwise, technology drives out costs. And again, "risk to goods" will be insured against; just like they do now with every other type of transportation service.
With a guy like Trump in office, drone delivery technology has a good chance to move forward. If this technology is over-regulated, however, it will remain a niche player in the industry.
I think this might be a good test to see if this country really will ever be great again, or just good enough. Imagine if we had this same risk-aversion and over-regulation mentality when the airplane was just getting started; the thought is sickening. Risk taking is what made this country great, if your not into that, then just get out of the way and let those who are get on with it.