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OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
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FIUFan Offline
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OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
You know, there haven't been any real 'quantum leaps' in the way we've done things since the PC and the Smartphone, but to me, unmanned drones making deliveries to your door 13 minutes after you place the order is groundbreaking.

This could be the first small step to putting the final nail in the coffin of big box stores. The service is free, and given 'economies of scale' and the reduction of 'middle-man' distribution charges, should make purchases cheaper and more efficient.

Imagine 5-10 years from now the amount of urban space that opens up due to the reduction of grocery stores and strip malls.

I hope WAL-MART and others pick-up on Amazon's lead here, this makes tons of sense, economically and otherwise.

https://news.google.com/nwshp?hl=en&tab=...EKkuCAYoBQ
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2016 02:52 PM by FIUFan.)
12-14-2016 02:51 PM
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 02:51 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  You know, there haven't been any real 'quantum leaps' in the way we've done things since the PC and the Smartphone, but to me, unmanned drones making deliveries to your door 13 minutes after you place the order is groundbreaking.

This could be the first small step to putting the final nail in the coffin of big box stores. The service is free, and given 'economies of scale' and the reduction of 'middle-man' distribution charges, should make purchases cheaper and more efficient.

Imagine 5-10 years from now the amount of urban space that opens up due to the reduction of grocery stores and strip malls.

I hope WAL-MART and others pick-up on Amazon's lead here, this makes tons of sense, economically and otherwise.

https://news.google.com/nwshp?hl=en&tab=...EKkuCAYoBQ

Agree but this will only effect a very small portion of the goods being delivered. Size issues, distance issues plus the FAA will put major restrictions on this stuff. Plus wait till the idiots think it is funny to start shooting them out of the sky.
12-14-2016 03:27 PM
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ericsaid Offline
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
I saw the back of a UPS truck which was 3/4 filled with Amazon packages. There is no way drones can handle the volume of amazon shipments to affect any sort of change.
12-14-2016 03:37 PM
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NorthTexan95 Offline
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 03:37 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I saw the back of a UPS truck which was 3/4 filled with Amazon packages. There is no way drones can handle the volume of amazon shipments to affect any sort of change.

I always chuckle when I see the UPS truck backed up to the loading dock at the Post Office.
12-14-2016 03:40 PM
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer


(This post was last modified: 12-14-2016 03:42 PM by MTPiKapp.)
12-14-2016 03:41 PM
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FIUFan Offline
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 03:37 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I saw the back of a UPS truck which was 3/4 filled with Amazon packages. There is no way drones can handle the volume of amazon shipments to affect any sort of change.

What's the most powerful force on the planet? A.) Free Market Capitalism and the American Consumer. If this technology takes off (which it makes perfect sense that it will) there will be a game of technology leap-frog until this market matures, which would be 10 to 20 years out.

When the first automobile was rolled out, there were no roads. What did the railroad people say? Aww, isn't that cute but people will always ride the train. Then competition and the American consumer took over and we built roads like there was no tomorrow (leading to continual improvement in the automobile as well as the highway infrastructure).

When other companies begin to lose market share to this new technology, they will either adapt or die. Sure the first drones only handle packages under 5 lbs.; the first airplanes only went a few hundred yards.

These drones with be given roadways in the sky, (similar to the VOR system that aviation uses only at lower altitudes), be made more powerful and efficient and new rules will be adopted to govern their safety and logistics.

It's going to be interesting to me to see who begins to adopt this next, UPS or FEDEX. I bet money they are already working together on some type of partnership or strategic plan.
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2016 04:09 PM by FIUFan.)
12-14-2016 04:07 PM
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 03:37 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I saw the back of a UPS truck which was 3/4 filled with Amazon packages. There is no way drones can handle the volume of amazon shipments to affect any sort of change.

A lot of people have said there is no way to a lot of things that are standard today.

I definitely can see trucking being used only/primarily for transit between manufactureres and distribution centers while local delivery is carried out by drones, with exceptions for heavy products of course.
12-14-2016 04:08 PM
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FIUFan Offline
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 04:08 PM)Niner National Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 03:37 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I saw the back of a UPS truck which was 3/4 filled with Amazon packages. There is no way drones can handle the volume of amazon shipments to affect any sort of change.
A lot of people have said there is no way to a lot of things that are standard today.
I definitely can see trucking being used only/primarily for transit between manufactureres and distribution centers while local delivery is carried out by drones, with exceptions for heavy products of course.

Exactly. Then smart inventory systems will house in these distribution centers faster moving items (which they already do). And items that we personally consume on a more regular basis can/will be delivered on a periodic basis automatically. Why can't a supermarket use this technology. If WAL-MART wants to corner the grocery market, they early adopt here and the regionals are dead. The possibilities really are limitless right now.
12-14-2016 04:17 PM
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 04:08 PM)Niner National Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 03:37 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I saw the back of a UPS truck which was 3/4 filled with Amazon packages. There is no way drones can handle the volume of amazon shipments to affect any sort of change.

A lot of people have said there is no way to a lot of things that are standard today.

I definitely can see trucking being used only/primarily for transit between manufactureres and distribution centers while local delivery is carried out by drones, with exceptions for heavy products of course.

Don't forget trucks will be autonomous within a decade or two as well.
12-14-2016 04:23 PM
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Niner National Offline
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 04:23 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 04:08 PM)Niner National Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 03:37 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I saw the back of a UPS truck which was 3/4 filled with Amazon packages. There is no way drones can handle the volume of amazon shipments to affect any sort of change.

A lot of people have said there is no way to a lot of things that are standard today.

I definitely can see trucking being used only/primarily for transit between manufactureres and distribution centers while local delivery is carried out by drones, with exceptions for heavy products of course.

Don't forget trucks will be autonomous within a decade or two as well.
Yep.

Going to be a massive labor surplus in the coming decades.
12-14-2016 04:39 PM
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FIUFan Offline
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 04:39 PM)Niner National Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 04:23 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 04:08 PM)Niner National Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 03:37 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I saw the back of a UPS truck which was 3/4 filled with Amazon packages. There is no way drones can handle the volume of amazon shipments to affect any sort of change.
A lot of people have said there is no way to a lot of things that are standard today.
I definitely can see trucking being used only/primarily for transit between manufactureres and distribution centers while local delivery is carried out by drones, with exceptions for heavy products of course.
Don't forget trucks will be autonomous within a decade or two as well.
Yep.
Going to be a massive labor surplus in the coming decades.

Every answer leads to ten more questions.
12-14-2016 04:44 PM
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 04:17 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 04:08 PM)Niner National Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 03:37 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I saw the back of a UPS truck which was 3/4 filled with Amazon packages. There is no way drones can handle the volume of amazon shipments to affect any sort of change.
A lot of people have said there is no way to a lot of things that are standard today.
I definitely can see trucking being used only/primarily for transit between manufactureres and distribution centers while local delivery is carried out by drones, with exceptions for heavy products of course.

Exactly. Then smart inventory systems will house in these distribution centers faster moving items (which they already do). And items that we personally consume on a more regular basis can/will be delivered on a periodic basis automatically. Why can't a supermarket use this technology. If WAL-MART wants to corner the grocery market, they early adopt here and the regionals are dead. The possibilities really are limitless right now.

This will require a regular tracking of inventory in our homes to know of a reorder point which would be greatly resisted.

The fact of the matter is that MANY, far too many drones in fact would be needed for drone delivery to be an economic approach unless they become the size of a straight truck and have fixed lanes like roads in the sky. Any of you who are jumping all over this really underestimated the sheer volume of shipping that Amazon does and the relatively small volume a single drone is able to carry at a time.

Unless a drone can carry around 200 pounds and fly at around 100 MPH, it isn't going to be economical to deliver on a local basis. Delivering medication and foods to hard to reach areas may be the only way but for local deliveries, small straight vans will be the most economical approach for delivering to homes.

Sincerely,

Your resident Supply Chain Professional
12-14-2016 05:04 PM
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ericsaid Offline
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 04:07 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 03:37 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I saw the back of a UPS truck which was 3/4 filled with Amazon packages. There is no way drones can handle the volume of amazon shipments to affect any sort of change.

What's the most powerful force on the planet? A.) Free Market Capitalism and the American Consumer. If this technology takes off (which it makes perfect sense that it will) there will be a game of technology leap-frog until this market matures, which would be 10 to 20 years out.

When the first automobile was rolled out, there were no roads. What did the railroad people say? Aww, isn't that cute but people will always ride the train. Then competition and the American consumer took over and we built roads like there was no tomorrow (leading to continual improvement in the automobile as well as the highway infrastructure).

When other companies begin to lose market share to this new technology, they will either adapt or die. Sure the first drones only handle packages under 5 lbs.; the first airplanes only went a few hundred yards.

These drones with be given roadways in the sky, (similar to the VOR system that aviation uses only at lower altitudes), be made more powerful and efficient and new rules will be adopted to govern their safety and logistics.

It's going to be interesting to me to see who begins to adopt this next, UPS or FEDEX. I bet money they are already working together on some type of partnership or strategic plan.

It still doesn't make sense unless you see what amounts to a box truck flying through the sky. The volume doesn't justify the means or cost. There is also an increased risk to those living below and around where these drones will fly which will drive up cost. Technology will drive up cost, risk to goods will drive up cost. There are far too many cost drivers in this particular situation to make this even remotely economical within the next 50 or so years.
12-14-2016 05:07 PM
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FIUFan Offline
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 05:04 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  This will require a regular tracking of inventory in our homes to know of a reorder point which would be greatly resisted.

The fact of the matter is that MANY, far too many drones in fact would be needed for drone delivery to be an economic approach unless they become the size of a straight truck and have fixed lanes like roads in the sky. Any of you who are jumping all over this really underestimated the sheer volume of shipping that Amazon does and the relatively small volume a single drone is able to carry at a time.

Unless a drone can carry around 200 pounds and fly at around 100 MPH, it isn't going to be economical to deliver on a local basis. Delivering medication and foods to hard to reach areas may be the only way but for local deliveries, small straight vans will be the most economical approach for delivering to homes.
Sincerely,
Your resident Supply Chain Professional

Your first point is well taken; either you set a pre-order of basic items with the distributor or there needs to be some type of 'smart tracking' of the commodities you have programmed (again, we're not there but we're asking the right questions).

Your second point you address fails to see the nuance of every package being delivered. Initially, and for the foreseeable future, these drones would only cover the last say 5 miles of the journey (obviously the tractor-trailer is not being replaced for a very long time, if ever). Also, do you know what a VOR does (VHF Omnidirectional Radio navigation)? It's 60 year old technology that is basically a highway in the sky and can be tracked by auto-pilot. But that technology is dinosaur-like compared to modern GPS which can be preprogrammed to the drone, to make pin-point location deliveries. And your 'sheer volume' comment will be overcome by efficiencies created in the system, which in-turn will drive out the more inefficient delivery methods (e.g. how inefficient is it for a box truck to go door to door, a guy jump out, run the package to the door, etc. not to mention waiting at the guard house to be let in and all the traffic lights he must negotiate to deliver that small parcel).

To your final point, well over 95% of all couriered parcels (USPS, FEDEX, UPS, etc.) weigh under 5 lbs. so the drones don't need to carry 200 lbs or go 100 miles an hour (again, they're just delivering the last five miles). The Post Office and courier services could all use this technology. There will always be a need for over-the-road and local haulers, but for the menial traffic, why not hand this work off.
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2016 05:37 PM by FIUFan.)
12-14-2016 05:35 PM
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FIUFan Offline
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 05:07 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  It still doesn't make sense unless you see what amounts to a box truck flying through the sky. The volume doesn't justify the means or cost. There is also an increased risk to those living below and around where these drones will fly which will drive up cost. Technology will drive up cost, risk to goods will drive up cost. There are far too many cost drivers in this particular situation to make this even remotely economical within the next 50 or so years.

As explained, no need for 'big' drones to make small deliveries.

Initially, the volume (i.e. market share) that these drones take will be negligible, however as the infrastructure is built up for them (e.g. distribution centers, landing areas, programmers, etc.) and the marginal efficiencies increase, the more rapid this transition will become.

To the risk point, risk is always there to be mitigated, though never entirely eliminated. Just off the top of my head, these drones can follow the same roads already laid out for the automobile, only at 2 or 300 feet which might minimize the chance for inadvertent accidents (though, like with anything, they will occur; that's why we have insurance).

Finally, you say technology will drive up cost; history states otherwise, technology drives out costs. And again, "risk to goods" will be insured against; just like they do now with every other type of transportation service.

With a guy like Trump in office, drone delivery technology has a good chance to move forward. If this technology is over-regulated, however, it will remain a niche player in the industry.

I think this might be a good test to see if this country really will ever be great again, or just good enough. Imagine if we had this same risk-aversion and over-regulation mentality when the airplane was just getting started; the thought is sickening. Risk taking is what made this country great, if your not into that, then just get out of the way and let those who are get on with it.
12-14-2016 05:58 PM
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 02:51 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  You know, there haven't been any real 'quantum leaps' in the way we've done things since the PC and the Smartphone, but to me, unmanned drones making deliveries to your door 13 minutes after you place the order is groundbreaking.

This could be the first small step to putting the final nail in the coffin of big box stores. The service is free, and given 'economies of scale' and the reduction of 'middle-man' distribution charges, should make purchases cheaper and more efficient.

Imagine 5-10 years from now the amount of urban space that opens up due to the reduction of grocery stores and strip malls.

I hope WAL-MART and others pick-up on Amazon's lead here, this makes tons of sense, economically and otherwise.

https://news.google.com/nwshp?hl=en&tab=...EKkuCAYoBQ

And so Skynet starts....
12-14-2016 06:20 PM
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ericsaid Offline
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 05:58 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 05:07 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  It still doesn't make sense unless you see what amounts to a box truck flying through the sky. The volume doesn't justify the means or cost. There is also an increased risk to those living below and around where these drones will fly which will drive up cost. Technology will drive up cost, risk to goods will drive up cost. There are far too many cost drivers in this particular situation to make this even remotely economical within the next 50 or so years.

As explained, no need for 'big' drones to make small deliveries.

Initially, the volume (i.e. market share) that these drones take will be negligible, however as the infrastructure is built up for them (e.g. distribution centers, landing areas, programmers, etc.) and the marginal efficiencies increase, the more rapid this transition will become.

To the risk point, risk is always there to be mitigated, though never entirely eliminated. Just off the top of my head, these drones can follow the same roads already laid out for the automobile, only at 2 or 300 feet which might minimize the chance for inadvertent accidents (though, like with anything, they will occur; that's why we have insurance).

Finally, you say technology will drive up cost; history states otherwise, technology drives out costs. And again, "risk to goods" will be insured against; just like they do now with every other type of transportation service.

With a guy like Trump in office, drone delivery technology has a good chance to move forward. If this technology is over-regulated, however, it will remain a niche player in the industry.

I think this might be a good test to see if this country really will ever be great again, or just good enough. Imagine if we had this same risk-aversion and over-regulation mentality when the airplane was just getting started; the thought is sickening. Risk taking is what made this country great, if your not into that, then just get out of the way and let those who are get on with it.

The lack of ability to create Economies of Scale within the Drone Transport Industry is what will hold them back. Technology that streamlines an otherwise inefficient process drives down cost through process improvement and waste reduction. Drones do neither of these and if anything create a more inefficient delivery system than what is currently in place.

The purchase of insurance is not a risk mitigation tactic in and of itself. It's may reduce the total cost of the risk without reducing any actual risk to people, property, and the goods they carry. Small drones can make small deliveries but if you think about a city and the number of packages from amazon that may be delivered on a day to day basis, there simply isn't enough air space to accommodate an efficient distribution of product via drone.

As mentioned, rural areas are the best candidates due to lack of volume to justify a truck delivery (inefficiency) however enough volume to justify delivery via drone (low volume, high cost, secluded). In this day and age, motor carriers are still the most flexible method of transportation due to the fact that roads are almost everywhere people are.

I've been studying this industry long enough to know, even on its face, that Drone delivery will only be suited for High Cost, Highly Sensitive materials to rural areas; at least in a parcel delivery service.

Regulations can be changed to accommodate the industry but they won't be able to create more air space and create more efficiency. Transit cost associated with purchasing products via large retailers are reduced via the creation of economies of scale. With drone deliveries, those scales are reduced, economies of scope are impossible, and costs for small parcel delivery rise. This is the reason that drone delivery will only be economical for high value goods that can absorb the cost.
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2016 06:34 PM by ericsaid.)
12-14-2016 06:21 PM
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 03:40 PM)NorthTexan95 Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 03:37 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I saw the back of a UPS truck which was 3/4 filled with Amazon packages. There is no way drones can handle the volume of amazon shipments to affect any sort of change.

I always chuckle when I see the UPS truck backed up to the loading dock at the Post Office.

They share some orders for loading/order trafficking purposes. I deal with my stores ship outs daily and some orders, even though they are "UPS" UPS uses USPS infrastructure in some cases for rural areas or low traffic areas and I would assume it would depend on the speed of shipping paid for too.
12-14-2016 06:24 PM
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ericsaid Offline
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 06:24 PM)PirateTreasureNC Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 03:40 PM)NorthTexan95 Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 03:37 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I saw the back of a UPS truck which was 3/4 filled with Amazon packages. There is no way drones can handle the volume of amazon shipments to affect any sort of change.

I always chuckle when I see the UPS truck backed up to the loading dock at the Post Office.

They share some orders for loading/order trafficking purposes. I deal with my stores ship outs daily and some orders, even though they are "UPS" UPS uses USPS infrastructure in some cases for rural areas or low traffic areas and I would assume it would depend on the speed of shipping paid for too.

The only way drone deliveries would make sense is if more distribution points were added to reduce volume by location to add single package delivery efficiency. In a world where volume is used to spread out cost, drone delivery would be moving the opposite direction. From what I've read here, people expect there to be conveyor belts in the sky.

07-coffee3
12-14-2016 06:32 PM
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RE: OT: Amazon Drone delivers first package to paying Customer
(12-14-2016 05:04 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 04:17 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 04:08 PM)Niner National Wrote:  
(12-14-2016 03:37 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I saw the back of a UPS truck which was 3/4 filled with Amazon packages. There is no way drones can handle the volume of amazon shipments to affect any sort of change.
A lot of people have said there is no way to a lot of things that are standard today.
I definitely can see trucking being used only/primarily for transit between manufactureres and distribution centers while local delivery is carried out by drones, with exceptions for heavy products of course.

Exactly. Then smart inventory systems will house in these distribution centers faster moving items (which they already do). And items that we personally consume on a more regular basis can/will be delivered on a periodic basis automatically. Why can't a supermarket use this technology. If WAL-MART wants to corner the grocery market, they early adopt here and the regionals are dead. The possibilities really are limitless right now.

This will require a regular tracking of inventory in our homes to know of a reorder point which would be greatly resisted.

That is, unless, you provide a tool to the customer to predict and/or automatically ship items at regular intervals of easily predictable items, like air filters, shampoos, razors, and other regularly consumed products. Then provide that tracking option, but do not mandate it. Every smart phone in the world, these days, has a tracking component on it and that doesn't inhibit anyone from buying the latest apple product

The fact of the matter is that MANY, far too many drones in fact would be needed for drone delivery to be an economic approach...

If it makes and/or saves money, the drones will continue to increase up to the point where it doesn't make any more / save any more money. Amount of drones required is entirely dependent on delivery demand, not feasibility.

unless they become the size of a straight truck

One could argue autonomous trucks are drones too.

and have fixed lanes like roads in the sky.

And why not? Air travel largely follows this standard.

Any of you who are jumping all over this really underestimated the sheer volume of shipping that Amazon does and the relatively small volume a single drone is able to carry at a time.

Amazon has a huge range of products. Already, they've proven that they can ship smaller items nearly instantaneously. Drone technology will only continue to grow from here. What if a flying drone develops with a carrying capacity of 100 lbs? 200 lbs? That's one drone that can deliver one very large object or 10, 15, 100 small objects. Multiply that force by 10,000 per warehouse... that's 1,000,000 - 2,000,000 lbs of freight (500 to 1,000 tons) cycling to consumers every 15 minutes to an hour. NOT TO MENTION THE INTERNAL LOGISTICS POSSIBILITIES. Why pay a worker to run across the warehouse when you can automatically pick a product instantaneously, load it into a pick helipad and deliver it via drone to a loading / delivery zone? After all this is done YOU STILL have the versatility of manual delivery at your disposal.

Unless a drone can carry around 200 pounds and fly at around 100 MPH, it isn't going to be economical to deliver on a local basis. Delivering medication and foods to hard to reach areas may be the only way but for local deliveries, small straight vans will be the most economical approach for delivering to homes.

Sincerely,

Your resident Supply Chain Professional

Sincerely, your resident Autonomous Manufacturing Logistics Manager and Supply Chain Logistics Consultant.

Seriously. Do not underestimate the power of autonomous delivery. ESPECIALLY in manufacturing and logistics. My company just bet $1.3 Billion to expand into automation.
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2016 08:20 PM by Kruciff.)
12-14-2016 08:18 PM
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