Thought it would be interesting to see where the MAC stands compared to our other 2 regional mid majors through today. With the ranking system I developed here is where the teams would rank in a combined MAC-Horizon-MVC Mega mega conference. Please ignore where my Huskies stand My system is not in love with Valpo at only #6, that may be a bit out to lunch, we shall see.

1) Wichita St
2) Illinois St
3) Eastern Michigan
4) Central Michigan
5) Northern Iowa
6) Valparaiso
7) Kent St
8) Oakland
9) Ohio
10) Indiana St
11) IPFW
12) Missouri St
13) IUPUI
14) Loyola-IL
15) Buffalo
16) Nebraska-Omaha
17) Northern Kentucky
18) Evansville
19) Akron
20) South Dakota
21) Toledo
22) North Dakota St
23) Green Bay
24) Denver
25) Bowling Green
26) Southern Illinois
27) Ball St
28) Western Michigan
29) UW-Milwaukee
30) Youngstown St
31) Cleveland St
32) Northern Illinois
33) South Dakota St
34) Bradley
35) Illinois-Chicago
36) Miami-OH
37) Oral Roberts
38) Detroit-Mercy
39) Drake
40) Western Illinois

Graphically plotting the overall rankings, its very close between MAC and MVC, comparable scores. The first 2 teams in the MVC are clearly better, the vast range of middle of the pack teams in the MVC/MAC are about even, but the MAC seems to outdo the MVC in depth for the later teams. Horizon clearly lagging behind the MAC and MVC. Summit has some moderately good top half of the conference teams (nothing mind blowing) but really drops off at the bottom, even below Horizon.



From just offense, the MAC is clearly a better conference than the MVC or Horizon. Only the best offensive team in the MVC is putting up a similar score to the top offensive team in the MAC. MVC and Horizon are actually pretty comparable in the bottom two thirds of each conference in terms of offense. Summit's top 4 teams score offensively somewhere between that of MVC and Horizon but take sharp drop in bottom half of conference.



Now defense is what stood out to me, the MAC really is having a hard time measuring up. The defense being played in the top half of the MVC is blowing the doors off the MAC and Horizon. Can MAC defenses improve, or is it pretty much going to be an offensively dominated league? Summit defenses look to be on par with MAC and Horizon





So overall, I think the MAC and MVC are being regarded as the best mid majors out there, and clearly better than Horizon, but the ways those two conferences are getting to that evaluation is so different, MVC = Defense/bit top heavy, MAC = Offense/bit more depth

CMU is playing small ball. We can light it up, but if officials allow a physical game against a bigger team, it's definitely not to our advantage. We will out-shoot most teams, but the Illinois game was a perfect example.

In case anyone was maybe out on a space capsule for a few years, DaShonta Riley has been gone from EMU and so has been the defense.

Like CMU we will flat out score teams this year to win.

EMU probably scored more points in their first half Sunday then they did during most games during Murphy's early years.

Yeah, Valpo is certainly better than the where they are slotted and feel Akron is better than their 16th rank showing.

(12-13-2016 06:26 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Yeah, Valpo is certainly better than the where they are slotted and feel Akron is better than their 16th rank showing.

Charts and graphs tell a lot ... but what's the hed-to-hed story.

(12-12-2016 09:25 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  So overall, I think the MAC and MVC are being regarded as the best mid majors out there, and clearly better than Horizon, but the ways those two conferences are getting to that evaluation is so different, MVC = Defense/bit top heavy, MAC = Offense/bit more depth

You mean among 3 midwestern mid-majors, I assume? And you're counting the A10 as a "major" along with the BE and AAC? Throw the MWC and WCC into the equation and it's a different story. Hard to see the MAC as one of the better mid-majors this season. Honestly, we look to be in the#13-#16 range. It looks like a season of haves and have nots: very few multi-bid leagues besides the obvious ones. The WCC looks like the only mid-major likely sending an at-large. CUSA, MAC, MVC, Horizon all look like only the tourney champ can get a bid this season. Even the MWC could well be a 1-bidder.

Last year, the Summit was like the 10th rated conference. This year it has fallen off the pace, but IPFW is highly rated, as they beat the Hoosiers. Seems the Summit should be in this comparison, as it has Indiana and Illinois schools.

(12-13-2016 05:51 PM)NoDak Wrote:  Last year, the Summit was like the 10th rated conference. This year it has fallen off the pace, but IPFW is highly rated, as they beat the Hoosiers. Seems the Summit should be in this comparison, as it has Indiana and Illinois schools.

Results updated above (only includes games through yesterday)
Added Summit, looks like strength of Summit is that in its top 6 teams you have a pretty solid group in terms of scoring pretty good in this ranking system, but the top teams do not score as high as in MVC/MAC/Horizon. I have IPFW as the best in the Summit but only ranking 11th overall when joined in the 40 team pool of MVC/MAC/Horizon/Summit. Summit just plummets in the bottom quarter of the conference, well below any of the other three conferences.

(12-14-2016 12:05 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(12-13-2016 05:51 PM)NoDak Wrote:  Last year, the Summit was like the 10th rated conference. This year it has fallen off the pace, but IPFW is highly rated, as they beat the Hoosiers. Seems the Summit should be in this comparison, as it has Indiana and Illinois schools.

Results updated above (only includes games through yesterday)
Added Summit, looks like strength of Summit is that in its top 6 teams you have a pretty solid group in terms of scoring pretty good in this ranking system, but the top teams do not score as high as in MVC/MAC/Horizon. I have IPFW as the best in the Summit but only ranking 11th overall when joined in the 40 team pool of MVC/MAC/Horizon/Summit. Summit just plummets in the bottom quarter of the conference, well below any of the other three conferences.

GREAT GRAPHICS ON WHO CAN SCORE AND WHO CAN DEFEND ... AND HOW THE TOP AND BOTOM OF EACH CONFERENCE MEASURE UP AGAINST THE OTHERS ...

But the bottom line is winning ... which conference has the most wins vs. the others???

Tough to get a meaningful comparison among conferences when there is limited scheduling among them. Not enough data.

I like the comparison of Off. Pts. per Possession minus Def. PPP to get a total points per possession differential. It has proved out over the course of the season to show relative strength of teams. Right now, with only OOC games in play, it's difficult to equalize the numbers due to SOS. But here are the current MAC numbers:

Team OPPP. DPPP Total Diff.
1. KSU. 1.135. 0.949. +.186
2. Akron 1.114. 0.968. +.146
3. EMU. 1.122 1.022 +.100
4. Ohio 1.040 0.959. +.081
5. BallSt 1.066 1.000 +.066
6. CMU. 1.115. 1.062. +.053
7. NIU 0.985. 0.988. -.003
8. UB 1.034 1.048 -.014
9. UT 1.038 1.069 -.031
10. BG 0.945. 0.978. -.033
11. Miami 0.967. 1.018. -.051
12. WMU 0.981 1.105. -.124

(12-14-2016 01:21 PM)axeme Wrote:  Tough to get a meaningful comparison among conferences when there is limited scheduling among them. Not enough data.

I like the comparison of Off. Pts. per Possession minus Def. PPP to get a total points per possession differential. It has proved out over the course of the season to show relative strength of teams. Right now, with only OOC games in play, it's difficult to equalize the numbers due to SOS. But here are the current MAC numbers:

Team OPPP. DPPP Total Diff.
1. KSU. 1.135. 0.949. +.186
2. Akron 1.114. 0.968. +.146
3. EMU. 1.122 1.022 +.100
4. Ohio 1.040 0.959. +.081
5. BallSt 1.066 1.000 +.066
6. CMU. 1.115. 1.062. +.053
7. NIU 0.985. 0.988. -.003
8. UB 1.034 1.048 -.014
9. UT 1.038 1.069 -.031
10. BG 0.945. 0.978. -.033
11. Miami 0.967. 1.018. -.051
12. WMU 0.981 1.105. -.124

Interesting, Kent certainly has been a surprise to me this year, I did not think they would be playing at the level that they are. If UB was not so turnover prone, they would certainly be climbing that list. I do agree SOS is a big contributor though, and Buffalo has had a very tough schedule. I am sure they shoot up that list.

(12-14-2016 01:21 PM)axeme Wrote:  Tough to get a meaningful comparison among conferences when there is limited scheduling among them. Not enough data.

I like the comparison of Off. Pts. per Possession minus Def. PPP to get a total points per possession differential. It has proved out over the course of the season to show relative strength of teams. Right now, with only OOC games in play, it's difficult to equalize the numbers due to SOS. But here are the current MAC numbers:

Team OPPP. DPPP Total Diff.
1. KSU. 1.135. 0.949. +.186
2. Akron 1.114. 0.968. +.146
3. EMU. 1.122 1.022 +.100
4. Ohio 1.040 0.959. +.081
5. BallSt 1.066 1.000 +.066
6. CMU. 1.115. 1.062. +.053
7. NIU 0.985. 0.988. -.003
8. UB 1.034 1.048 -.014
9. UT 1.038 1.069 -.031
10. BG 0.945. 0.978. -.033
11. Miami 0.967. 1.018. -.051
12. WMU 0.981 1.105. -.124

ABSOLUTELY CAN'T RELY ON THESE NUMBERS RIGHT NOW ... Ohio has the best record in the conference, but the Bobcats are more than .100-diff from No. 1 Kent State ... And the Flashes already have three losses ... Buffalo has played a much tougher schedule than most and they are four more spots behind Ohio ... Toledo has played five OT games. That has to skew the numbers a little ... Would love to see these numbers after the first round of MAC play (w/o the non-con) to get a more realistic picture.

(12-14-2016 06:46 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(12-14-2016 01:21 PM)axeme Wrote:  Tough to get a meaningful comparison among conferences when there is limited scheduling among them. Not enough data.

I like the comparison of Off. Pts. per Possession minus Def. PPP to get a total points per possession differential. It has proved out over the course of the season to show relative strength of teams. Right now, with only OOC games in play, it's difficult to equalize the numbers due to SOS. But here are the current MAC numbers:

Team OPPP. DPPP Total Diff.
1. KSU. 1.135. 0.949. +.186
2. Akron 1.114. 0.968. +.146
3. EMU. 1.122 1.022 +.100
4. Ohio 1.040 0.959. +.081
5. BallSt 1.066 1.000 +.066
6. CMU. 1.115. 1.062. +.053
7. NIU 0.985. 0.988. -.003
8. UB 1.034 1.048 -.014
9. UT 1.038 1.069 -.031
10. BG 0.945. 0.978. -.033
11. Miami 0.967. 1.018. -.051
12. WMU 0.981 1.105. -.124

ABSOLUTELY CAN'T RELY ON THESE NUMBERS RIGHT NOW ... Ohio has the best record in the conference, but the Bobcats are more than .100-diff from No. 1 Kent State ... And the Flashes already have three losses ... Buffalo has played a much tougher schedule than most and they are four more spots behind Ohio ... Toledo has played five OT games. That has to skew the numbers a little ... Would love to see these numbers after the first round of MAC play (w/o the non-con) to get a more realistic picture.

Agreed. The only numbers you can really rely on are the MAC W-L numbers. KSU's figures above are good because of two reasons: they blew double digit leads late in all three losses and lost by only 3, 4, & 4 points, but the schedule has been weak. The numbers would be about the same if Kent were undefeated. The next three games should tell a better story about the Flashes before MAC play. (Wright St., Ore. St., & Texas.)

Before the season started, the schedule looked respectable with a nice array of decent mid-majors mixed in with a couple power conference teams and a couple low majors. It just didn't pan out as most of the teams are having poor starts.