(12-12-2016 08:49 AM)bullet Wrote: (12-12-2016 08:30 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote: TV platform and time slot and head to head competition are all factors along with popularity of conference/team involved. I would expect more critical analysis from our resident media and ratings experts.
Its a good bit of work just putting together the numbers he did. Doing an analysis to make them comparable is a lot more.
The network they are on is a factor. Pac 12 and Big 12 are on FS1 a lot which has weak ratings.
He didn't include the split regional games which are some of the best rated games for the Big 12, ACC and Big 10. I don't recall any SEC or Pac 12 games being in that split slot (one game on ABC/ESPN with a mirror on ESPN2 depending on which part of the country).
The totals also include different %s of games for each conference. Conferences with a higher % of games are having their lower rated games drag down the average. If you assume 7 home games per P5 school, the %s are:
Big 10 41%
SEC 50%
ACC 44%
Pac 12 54%
Big 12 63%
If you normalize for these factors, the SEC will almost certainly be first as they are just behind the Big 10 in his numbers. ACC, Pac 12 and Big 12 will be closer, but hard to tell the impact.
As you state there are plenty of variable factors involved. But some are more valid than others. Highest number of viewers for an FS1 game was the Texas vs OU game which drew 2.780 million viewers. So FS1 is capable of drawing viewers, when it is a good drawing match-up, even when airing against an ND game and a lower level SEC game in the same time slot. FS1 actually fares relatively well against ESPN2 and considerably better than ESPNU games.
Another factor is the opportunity to be shown. For 2016, the B12 and P12 could have games shown on FOX, ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, and FS1, while the B12 also could have games shown on ESPNU.
B1G games could be shown on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU (though this will change for next year).
SEC games could be shown on CBS, ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU.
ACC games could be shown on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU.
So, in terms of P5 games this is how it breaks down from a network perspective:
CBS - SEC
ABC - B1G, ACC, B12, P12
FOX - B12, P12 and B1G championship game
ESPN - SEC (except for 3:30 time slot), B1G, ACC, B12, P12
ESPN2 - same as ESPN
ESPNU - sames as ESPN and ESPN2 except no P12 games
FS1 - B12, P12
SEC, B1G, and P12 have their own networks as well, but those games are not metered nationally.
The above puts a new perspective on your percentages argument. Here are some mitigating factors to the percentages that I see:
1) The two conferences with the highest percentage also have the smallest number of games to show. Percentages in general tend to swing more wildly both good and bad when the numbers being compared vary in terms of sample sizes.
2) Three conferences are restricted due to content needed for their networks. So games not shown include 42 B1G games shown on BTN, 50 SEC games shown on the SECN, and 35 games shown on PTN.
3) The two conferences without a conference network have regional sports network games which account for 16 B12 games and 17 ACC games.
(data from 2 and 3 above was taken from Matt Arz's site)
4) The B12 and PAC12 have an opportunity to be shown on six (B12) or five (P12, with ESPNU the lowest of the six not included) different networks and for two of those six networks (FOX and FS1) are currently only in direct competition with each other - no SEC or B1G games to compete, at least for this year.
5) Meanwhile the ACC has to share their network opportunities with 3 other conferences (one of which is part of the Greater 2) when it comes to ABC games and all 4 other conferences when it comes to ESPN and ESPN2 games.
I believe when the above mitigating factors are taken under consideration, the percentages make more sense.
Cheers,
Neil
