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Disney may abandon ESPN?
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
(12-11-2016 09:08 AM)Wolfman Wrote:  Fox already has an independent sports network. NBC is trying to start one. CBS is kinda, sorta, maybe starting one. Why would Disney/ABC sell off the front runner and give their competition a leg up? Not to mention it would greatly devalue ABC. Without a sports division they would be ahead of The CW but way behind NBC, CBS, and Fox.


CBS Sports Network was known as College Sports Network until CBS bought them out. It was the ESPNU of the sports world, but the College Sports Network showed D2 football games, D3, NAIA and all that. D2 schools got paid for being on tv at that time. Arkansas Tech was shown a few times during that time.
12-11-2016 09:16 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
I don't think Disney can dump it, but there is a simple reason why ESPN is struggling. They need better content. Regular season NBA doesn't cut it. They lost October baseball. They lost half their NBA share to Turner. You can't just toss these out the window thinking it'll be okay.

They have the early rounds of The Open, and some Golf majors, but then it goes to CBS/Fox/NBC on Sat/Sun. What's the point?

Tennis is too low key for mainstream although I'm a big fan.

They have worthless regular season NCAAM that the country largely ignores.

Monday Night Football is a DISASTER.... DEEE----SAAASSS---TTTERRR..... they are going to lose Gruden soon I bet. The play by play guy is as robotic as it comes. The fact that there is an extra prime time game on Thursday is killing the MNF package.

NCAAF is the one thing they can hang their hat on. Unfortunately they blow their load in a span of couple weeks with the NY6 and the Final. Saturday prime time package is good though.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2016 09:29 AM by RUScarlets.)
12-11-2016 09:28 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
ESPN is about 30% of Disney revenue, not 50% as some around here have said.

Disney isn't selling ESPN. ESPN is still profitable and will likely remain so, and it makes sense for a multimedia entertainment company to have a strong sports presence. ESPN, despite all the cord-cutting talk, is the most stable supply of cash Disney has, much moreso than the volatile movie business and even moreso than theme parks. And Disney is itself well-positioned to capitalize on any kind of digital delivery that cord-cutters turn to.

If there is a real weakness in the Disney entertainment portfolio, it's video games. Disney has been woefully weak in marketizing its fabulous animated, star wars, and marvel brands and characters into breakout video games for all platforms such as Iphones, Playstation, Xbox, etc.. This is one area where competitors like Warners and Comcast are beating it badly. That's something they need to fix, via ramped up in-house game development not low-margin licensing, not ESPN.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2016 09:53 AM by quo vadis.)
12-11-2016 09:45 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
Disney doesn't have games that appeal to adults. Honestly I'm not sure what Comcast has in terms of video games, but the Star Wars massive online multiplayer was a disappointment. Most expensive production ever at the time.

The Marvel video games are for the fanboys. Niche market.

I think you need more strategy (real time and/or turn based) and Multiplayer Online Battle Arena games. RPG with Pirates of the Caribbean, Marvel, and Star Wars shouldn't be an issue either.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2016 12:03 PM by RUScarlets.)
12-11-2016 09:54 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
(12-11-2016 09:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  And Disney is itself well-positioned to capitalize on any kind of digital delivery that cord-cutters turn to.

Also, I don't buy that loss of subscribers to traditional pay TV channel bundles (which is why you see ESPN sub numbers going down) necessarily means that Disney is going to be down in revenue going forward.

Granted, ESPN carriage fees are already quite high. But that's because sports is probably the one type of telecast that you can depend on people tuning in on-time and staying there.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2016 11:58 AM by MplsBison.)
12-11-2016 10:36 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
ESPN got ripped off with Monday night football. They are overpaying for it in a major way
12-11-2016 10:46 AM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
(12-11-2016 10:36 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  
(12-11-2016 09:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  And Disney is itself well-positioned to capitalize on any kind of digital delivery that cord-cutters turn to.

Also, I don't buy that loss of subscribers to traditional pay TV channel bundels (which is why you see ESPN sub numbers going down) necessarily means that Disney is going to be down in revenue going forward.

Granted, ESPN carriage frees are already quite high. But that's because sports is probably the one type of telecaast that you can depend on people tuning in on-time and staying there.

You may not buy it, but it's happening.

Consider the freaking Super Bowl. 72% of TVs in the United States were tuned in to the Super Bowl last year, 54.3 million sets, 114 million people.

That means that, of the 95 million or so households that had cable about 5 years ago, 40 million of them DIDN'T watch it. Some of that is group watching (your TV was off because you were at a Super Bowl party), but some of that is the 150M + Americans who did not watch and do not care.

ESPN's business model has relied on colllecting subscriber fees from those people. Many of them are now either skinny-bundlers, content for their TV needs to watch whatever the dozen channels they get have on, or NEtflix subscribers, paying to get EXACTLY what they want when they want it

In the past, ESPN (and to a lesser extent Disney Channel and Fox News and RSNs) were able to hold cable companies hostage because their motivated fanbases would raise hell if their show wasn't on basic cable. Cable companies grumbled, but they signed on the dotted line and sent the bill to Aunt MAbel, who paid it.

You can count on 150 million people watching the Super Bowl live, and sitting through the ads. But you can't count on making 300 million people all pay for the Super Bowl. (That's taking the extreme case where the Super Bowl is on ESPN, rather than Monday Night Football. The balance-of-power changes drastically when you get down to events that 40 million people watch, max, like the College Football Playoff. The other 60M + households are slowly figuring out that they don't have to pay cable for ESPN for sports they don't care about.
12-11-2016 10:59 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
(12-11-2016 10:46 AM)solohawks Wrote:  ESPN got ripped off with Monday night football. They are overpaying for it in a major way

As the Vikings-Cowboys TNF game showed, people will watch in droves for off-Sunday games ... *if* the matchup is compelling.

If ESPN were guaranteed a marquee matchup every Monday, I think it would be a different story. What the NFL has learned is that people won't necessarily tune in Monday and Thursday nights just to watch any two NFL teams.


(12-11-2016 10:59 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  You may not buy it, but it's happening.

I already acknowledged that ESPN's sub numbers are falling because people are (slowly) dropping traditional channel bundles.


(12-11-2016 10:59 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  The balance-of-power changes drastically when you get down to events that 40 million people watch, max, like the College Football Playoff. The other 60M + households are slowly figuring out that they don't have to pay cable for ESPN for sports they don't care about.

Only if you really believe that ESPN is just sitting around saying "Well gee, I hope the old model will still work in five years! We probably shouldn't spend any time or effort trying to figure out how to maintain our level of revenue in a regime where customers no longer have to get ESPN in their bundle to get other channels they want."

You can't be serious, if you think that's actually happening ...
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2016 12:04 PM by MplsBison.)
12-11-2016 12:04 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
I think it's also a bit like Netflix with the streaming and the password sharing. I share the pass between my family IP and where I rent personally. I can stream ESPN and NBC sports (don't read this cable companies). I do have to turn off adblock in most cases, but I simply mute and browse the web for a couple minutes (maybe post here) before returning to the game.

Nobody is sitting down in front of a TV set to watch a ballgame every week. We want to stream that **** on the go or while we are working on something else. Is this so hard to understand?

Maybe charge an extra surcharge for streaming online. Then you push the risk of more viewers turning to bootleg streams. We've seen it in the music and movie industry forever, and look at the crap we are getting from those platforms. But the business must adjust to the customers.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2016 12:22 PM by RUScarlets.)
12-11-2016 12:20 PM
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Post: #50
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
(12-11-2016 12:04 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  
(12-11-2016 10:46 AM)solohawks Wrote:  ESPN got ripped off with Monday night football. They are overpaying for it in a major way

As the Vikings-Cowboys TNF game showed, people will watch in droves for off-Sunday games ... *if* the matchup is compelling.

If ESPN were guaranteed a marquee matchup every Monday, I think it would be a different story. What the NFL has learned is that people won't necessarily tune in Monday and Thursday nights just to watch any two NFL teams.


(12-11-2016 10:59 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  You may not buy it, but it's happening.

I already acknowledged that ESPN's sub numbers are falling because people are (slowly) dropping traditional channel bundles.


(12-11-2016 10:59 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  The balance-of-power changes drastically when you get down to events that 40 million people watch, max, like the College Football Playoff. The other 60M + households are slowly figuring out that they don't have to pay cable for ESPN for sports they don't care about.

Only if you really believe that ESPN is just sitting around saying "Well gee, I hope the old model will still work in five years! We probably shouldn't spend any time or effort trying to figure out how to maintain our level of revenue in a regime where customers no longer have to get ESPN in their bundle to get other channels they want."

You can't be serious, if you think that's actually happening ...

ESPN is trying as hard as they can to figure out the answer. But the reality is that there may be no answer, no way to square the circle, no way to keep the quasi-monopoly profits that they've been getting in a situation where they don't have a monopoly.

ESPN collected about $7 billion in subscriber revenue at their peak, at $6/month. The fewer people are paying for ESPN, the more you have to charge those people to make up the same revenue. The more you charge, the more people will choose to drop ESPN in some form. Which is a bad position for ESPN to be in.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2016 12:43 PM by johnbragg.)
12-11-2016 12:40 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
ESPN lost NHRA, NASCAR and USAC midget racing.They dropped rodeo except for college rodeo on ESPNU. They lost a lot of sports programs. They even lost hunting and fishing shows, and I remember they had a scuba diving program at one time.
12-11-2016 01:03 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
(12-11-2016 10:59 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  In the past, ESPN (and to a lesser extent Disney Channel and Fox News and RSNs) were able to hold cable companies hostage because their motivated fanbases would raise hell if their show wasn't on basic cable. Cable companies grumbled, but they signed on the dotted line and sent the bill to Aunt MAbel, who paid it.

Many RSNs are in far more danger from cord-cutting than ESPN is.

RSNs are on the hook for some ridiculous long-term deals that will be huge money losers as more and more people cut the cord. Fox RSNs are starting with much smaller (and shrinking) subscriber bases and much lower per-subscriber fees than ESPN. The Fox RSNs in SoCal pay about $90 million/year to the Angels, about $20 million/year each to the LA Kings and Anaheim Ducks, and over $50 million/year each to the Clippers and Padres. That's $230 million/year, with only about a million subscribers (and falling) to support that.

So, how much money is Fox losing on its RSNs? Comcast is in the same boat with all of the RSNs that they own.
12-11-2016 01:11 PM
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Post: #53
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
(12-11-2016 01:11 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(12-11-2016 10:59 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  In the past, ESPN (and to a lesser extent Disney Channel and Fox News and RSNs) were able to hold cable companies hostage because their motivated fanbases would raise hell if their show wasn't on basic cable. Cable companies grumbled, but they signed on the dotted line and sent the bill to Aunt MAbel, who paid it.

Many RSNs are in far more danger from cord-cutting than ESPN is.

RSNs are on the hook for some ridiculous long-term deals that will be huge money losers as more and more people cut the cord. Fox RSNs are starting with much smaller (and shrinking) subscriber bases and much lower per-subscriber fees than ESPN. The Fox RSNs in SoCal pay about $90 million/year to the Angels, about $20 million/year each to the LA Kings and Anaheim Ducks, and over $50 million/year each to the Clippers and Padres. That's $230 million/year, with only about a million subscribers (and falling) to support that.

So, how much money is Fox losing on its RSNs? Comcast is in the same boat with all of the RSNs that they own.

Short answer: They never flew as high, so they don't have as far to fall.

Longer answer: Most of those "Fox" and "Comcast" RSNs are not parts of core Fox or core Comcast, they're either joint ventures or subsidiaries. When Comcast Sports Net Houston went broke, it didn't bring down Comcast.

Something I could see happening is a Disney-ESPN stock split, where every Disney shareholder gets 1 share of ESPN stock, and they figure out how "ABC on ESPN" gets treated for accounting purposes.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2016 01:47 PM by johnbragg.)
12-11-2016 01:45 PM
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TodgeRodge Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
people are still trying to view "ESPN" as all the Disney Cable Network revenues or most of it

again look at the numbers

Cable Networks
Operating income at Cable Networks decreased $207 million to $1.4 billion for the quarter due to decreases at ESPN and the Disney Channels, partially offset by an increase at Freeform.

so in A SINGLE QUARTER of a single year (three months) operating income (similar to profits before EBITDA) is down $207 million dollars to $1.4 billion

so $1.4B + $207M = $1.607B and $207M / $1.607B = 12.88%

and again that is at ALL Disney Cable Networks and it is probably safe to say that ESPN is responsible for a very large chunk of that loss

they are down millions of subs over the last couple of years and over a million over the last TWO MONTHS

there was also the survey where 56% of people would ditch ESPN and ESPN II to save $8 per month

http://time.com/money/4181145/cancel-esp...e-channel/

so they are not exactly staring at a situation where people are hoping they stay around and are successful and turn it around.....they are in a situation where over 50% of people would just assume they go away at least from their cable TV lineup and their cable TV bill

they are in a situation where revenues are dramatically down as well as operating income and where people are looking for them to get off their cable bill at the same time they are rolling out more networks to try and cram on people and they are expecting to charge people 33% MORE over the next couple of years (probably exclusive of the new networks they hope to cram like the ACCn)

they are massively bloated as far as employees, networks and general overhead and they only seemed to have woken up that there is a problem about 3 days ago and their answer seems to be to "tweak a few things and try and charge a bit more because people demand us"

the real issue as far as Disney is concerned is when you move to the reality that what everyone is trying to say is "ESPN profits" is actually DISNEY NETWORKS PROFITS and that most of the losses ARE most likely ESPN LOSSES is the fact that ESPN represents no synergy for Disney

with everything else like theme parks, movies, DISNEY networks, video games, licensing ect you have movies that spin off Disney TV shows and theme park ideas and licensing and video games.....you have Disney TV shows that spin off movies, theme park attractions, licensing and video games and probably even the chance to make a video game that spins off a TV show or a movie and theme park attractions and licensing

sports programming fits NOWHERE in that unless you are going to have a big bucket of keith oberman crap as a Christmas gift or the dunk in a bucket of festering keith oberman crap theme park ride or keith oberman makes an ass of himself on the big screen movie or maybe a Chris Beerman back back back back ride or talking bobble head doll or movie

and most of that garbage is chasing ESPN viewers off in droves and their answer seems to be dump Beerman and oberman the idiot and replace them with similar idiots that are even dumber

breaking out ESPN and perhaps ABC and spinning them off on their own and going back to worrying about the things that have synergy like fixing the video games, Disney programming and better movies makes a lot more sense Vs trying to fix the one thing that really does not fit in with the rest of the overall company especially when the rest of the overall company (less the one area that ditched the failed video game console) at least have overall revenue increases even if profits were down.....it is much easier to fix profit issues in the face of increasing revenues Vs fix them in the face of declining overall revenues

all the more so when it looks like the freight train of ESPN losing subs and revenues and profits only looks to be gaining steam and when it is pretty clear that a large portion of the population is not interested in paying what ESPN currently charges
12-11-2016 02:14 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
(12-11-2016 02:14 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  people are still trying to view "ESPN" as all the Disney Cable Network revenues or most of it

again look at the numbers

Cable Networks
Operating income at Cable Networks decreased $207 million to $1.4 billion for the quarter due to decreases at ESPN and the Disney Channels, partially offset by an increase at Freeform.

so in A SINGLE QUARTER of a single year (three months) operating income (similar to profits before EBITDA) is down $207 million dollars to $1.4 billion

so $1.4B + $207M = $1.607B and $207M / $1.607B = 12.88%

and again that is at ALL Disney Cable Networks and it is probably safe to say that ESPN is responsible for a very large chunk of that loss

Don't confuse a decline in income with an actual loss. 07-coffee3
12-11-2016 02:53 PM
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Post: #56
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
I honestly think ESPN is going to let Monday Night Football go, may try to snag Sunday instead. They way overpaid for MNf and they don't even get marquee match-up's along with the NFL bullying them from doing the concussion stories etc. They could save a ton of money letting MNF go and investing more into College Football which has been a better product the last few years.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2016 03:23 PM by Realignment.)
12-11-2016 03:20 PM
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Post: #57
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
(12-11-2016 02:53 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-11-2016 02:14 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  people are still trying to view "ESPN" as all the Disney Cable Network revenues or most of it

again look at the numbers

Cable Networks
Operating income at Cable Networks decreased $207 million to $1.4 billion for the quarter due to decreases at ESPN and the Disney Channels, partially offset by an increase at Freeform.

so in A SINGLE QUARTER of a single year (three months) operating income (similar to profits before EBITDA) is down $207 million dollars to $1.4 billion

so $1.4B + $207M = $1.607B and $207M / $1.607B = 12.88%

and again that is at ALL Disney Cable Networks and it is probably safe to say that ESPN is responsible for a very large chunk of that loss

Don't confuse a decline in income with an actual loss. 07-coffee3

I should have stated decrease in profits or loss in profits

either way when you are facing a decline in overall revenues and a 12.88% decline in operating income in a single quarter along with losing 1.11% of your subs in two months you have an issue (and some of sub loss that is probably not even reflected in that quarterly report)

especially considering the concept that you make a large amount of your profits on a small % of your overall customers

the subs they are losing right now are the "gravy" they are the ones that come after all the others cover the overhead of running the company and providing the content they represent little to no cost to provide content to they are just pure profit

ESPN represents the least core asset for Disney right now and the asset with the least synergy and they are not going to be turned around overnight and some of the same issues they face the other Disney channels face (mainly sub losses), but ESPN faces many more like crap content and bloated overhead and no focus

they have lost 10% of their subs in a couple of years and now it is at a rate of 1.11% in two months or 6.7% in a year if it keeps going at this rate.....and again a large amount of cable subs would just assume see them get ditched from their bill

with cable MSOs facing their own issues of losing subs and the fact that their whole product is basically "cable TV" and internet well when the cable TV portion of that goes away because subs simply are tired of being crammed on with channels they don't want or are repulsed paying for at some point you have to push back at those cramming that unwanted or repulsive content and ESPN is one of the most egregious and the most expensive of those crammers

they are not just facing the fact that subs are ditching them they are facing the fact that their former partners in crime cable MSOs are increasingly going to become hostile to them if they are going to keep the main part of what they provide which is cable TV

will Disney ditch them who knows, but they better either figure something out and make a commitment to turn it around or they are going to be faced with a glide path to poor profits turning into a free fall to the whole company taking a hit until they ditch an asset they let rot
12-11-2016 03:34 PM
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Post: #58
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
Monday Night Football is the second highest rated cable show behind the Walking Dead. The only college games that get better ratings for ESPN are the playoffs and select bowl games. They are not getting rid of MNF.
12-11-2016 03:52 PM
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Post: #59
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
(12-11-2016 03:34 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  especially considering the concept that you make a large amount of your profits on a small % of your overall customers

Except that's not true at all for ESPN. They make a huge percentage of their revenue (and their profits) off of "customers" who never watch a game, or who could easily do without ESPN.

Quote:the subs they are losing right now are the "gravy" they are the ones that come after all the others cover the overhead of running the company and providing the content they represent little to no cost to provide content to they are just pure profit

Running ESPN costs almost nothing in terms of ESPN's balance sheet. ESPN's main cost is paying for the rights to games. They are on track to, in a few years, not be able to pay for all of the sports rights they've signed for. Now, it's not certain that today's trend line continues for 5 years or so--but if it does, ESPN will be losing money.

(12-11-2016 03:52 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  Monday Night Football is the second highest rated cable show behind the Walking Dead. The only college games that get better ratings for ESPN are the playoffs and select bowl games. They are not getting rid of MNF.

Yes, it's a ratings leader--but is it worth $2 Billion a year?
12-11-2016 04:21 PM
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Post: #60
RE: Disney may abandon ESPN?
(12-11-2016 04:21 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(12-11-2016 03:52 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  Monday Night Football is the second highest rated cable show behind the Walking Dead. The only college games that get better ratings for ESPN are the playoffs and select bowl games. They are not getting rid of MNF.

Yes, it's a ratings leader--but is it worth $2 Billion a year?

The CFP deal might be worse. ESPN is paying:

$1.9B/year for 16 regular season NFL games, 1 playoff game, and the rights to air unlimited NFL-branded studio shows and to have an ESPN stage on site at playoff games.

$500MM/year for 3 CFP playoff games and 4 non-playoff bowl games, and the rights to air the charade that is the weekly CFP rankings show.
12-11-2016 04:46 PM
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