One of the quirky features of the current system is that the various tie-ins between conferences and bowls means that the teams that qualify for New Years' Six bowls vary depending on what bowls are hosting semi-finals. For example, this year, #10 Colorado goes to the Alamo Bowl while #11 Florida State and #14 Auburn go to New Years' Six Bowls. For fun, I thought it would be interesting to take this years' standings and project bowl matchups in 2017-18 and 2018-19:

2017-18

Sugar (SF): #1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington
Rose (SF): #2 Clemson vs. #3 Ohio State
Orange: #11 Florida State vs. #6 Michigan
Cotton: #5 Penn State vs. #7 Oklahoma
Fiesta: #8 Wisconsin vs. #9 USC
Peach: #10 Colorado vs. #15 Western Michigan

This is a tough year for the Host Bowls as there are two Pac 12 teams and two B1G teams that need to be placed. I opted for a battle of hot teams who are conference champions in the Cotton Bowl and an interesting re-match of last years' Holiday Bowl for the Fiesta. The Peach Bowl is stuck with a less appealing matchup. Auburn goes to the Capital One Bowl. Please weigh in for other potential arrangements.

2018-19

Cotton (SF): #1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington
Orange (SF): #2 Clemson vs. #3 Ohio State
Rose: #5 Penn State vs. #9 USC
Sugar: #7 Oklahoma vs. #14 Auburn
Fiesta: #8 Wisconsin vs. #10 Colorado
Peach: #6 Michigan vs. #15 Western Michigan

The Rose and Sugar Bowls are the same as they are this year. Florida is left out due to being ranked behind Colorado (and they miss the Capital One Bowl also as that goes to a B1G team, likely Iowa or Nebraska). For the host bowls, the Peach has the battle for the State of Michigan as Michigan played both Colorado and Wisconsin and the committee would likely want to avoid a rematch.

(12-06-2016 10:41 AM)MadisonHawk Wrote:  One of the quirky features of the current system is that the various tie-ins between conferences and bowls means that the teams that qualify for New Years' Six bowls vary depending on what bowls are hosting semi-finals. For example, this year, #10 Colorado goes to the Alamo Bowl while #11 Florida State and #14 Auburn go to New Years' Six Bowls. For fun, I thought it would be interesting to take this years' standings and project bowl matchups in 2017-18 and 2018-19:

2017-18

Sugar (SF): #1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington
Rose (SF): #2 Clemson vs. #3 Ohio State
Orange: #11 Florida State vs. #6 Michigan
Cotton: #5 Penn State vs. #7 Oklahoma
Fiesta: #8 Wisconsin vs. #9 USC
Peach: #10 Colorado vs. #15 Western Michigan

This is a tough year for the Host Bowls as there are two Pac 12 teams and two B1G teams that need to be placed. I opted for a battle of hot teams who are conference champions in the Cotton Bowl and an interesting re-match of last years' Holiday Bowl for the Fiesta. The Peach Bowl is stuck with a less appealing matchup. Auburn goes to the Capital One Bowl. Please weigh in for other potential arrangements.

2018-19

Cotton (SF): #1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington
Orange (SF): #2 Clemson vs. #3 Ohio State
Rose: #5 Penn State vs. #9 USC
Sugar: #7 Oklahoma vs. #14 Auburn
Fiesta: #8 Wisconsin vs. #10 Colorado
Peach: #6 Michigan vs. #15 Western Michigan

The Rose and Sugar Bowls are the same as they are this year. Florida is left out due to being ranked behind Colorado (and they miss the Capital One Bowl also as that goes to a B1G team, likely Iowa or Nebraska). For the host bowls, the Peach has the battle for the State of Michigan as Michigan played both Colorado and Wisconsin and the committee would likely want to avoid a rematch.

IMO, 2017-8 bowl lineup would likely keep #8 Wisconsin v. #15 Western Michigan matchup, but in the Peach, and pair Oklahoma and Colorado in Texas:

Cotton: #7 Oklahoma v. #10 Colorado
Fiesta: #5 Penn St. v. #9 USC
Peach: #8 Wisconsin v. #15 Western Michigan

(12-06-2016 10:41 AM)MadisonHawk Wrote:  One of the quirky features of the current system is that the various tie-ins between conferences and bowls means that the teams that qualify for New Years' Six bowls vary depending on what bowls are hosting semi-finals.

One thing to keep in mind, in 2014 the committee showed they would manipulate rankings in order create the matchups they want or to do a favor for conferences (See Ole Miss/Michigan State swap that allowed the Big Ten to keep the Capital One Bowl). So when doing the above, you can probably get away with moving one or two teams (maybe not the top four, but the others), up or down one slot to create matchups.

(12-06-2016 03:16 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  One thing to keep in mind, in 2014 the committee showed they would manipulate rankings in order create the matchups they want or to do a favor for conferences (See Ole Miss/Michigan State swap that allowed the Big Ten to keep the Capital One Bowl). So when doing the above, you can probably get away with moving one or two teams (maybe not the top four, but the others), up or down one slot to create matchups.

It was Miss St.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NCAA_...l_rankings


Going into CCG's, Mich St was #8 and Miss St was #10. Above them, #7 Arizona and #9 Kansas St both lost their respective CCGs.

The result: Miss St #7, Mich St #8 ... without either playing a game. I believe the punchline was that SEC got a higher rated bowl, and the Big Ten got more teams into bowls. Something like that ...

Thanks. My mistke. I cannot wrap my head around Miss State being a top ten team, so I vs default to Ole Miss.

I think it resulted in a the same number of Access bowl teams each, but didn't require the Big Ten to use their Orange Bowl slot, which would have meant the ACC got their Citrus Bowl slot as payment.

(12-06-2016 10:41 AM)MadisonHawk Wrote:  2018-19

Cotton (SF): #1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington
Orange (SF): #2 Clemson vs. #3 Ohio State
Rose: #5 Penn State vs. #9 USC
Sugar: #7 Oklahoma vs. #14 Auburn
Fiesta: #8 Wisconsin vs. #10 Colorado
Peach: #6 Michigan vs. #15 Western Michigan

The Rose and Sugar Bowls are the same as they are this year. Florida is left out due to being ranked behind Colorado (and they miss the Capital One Bowl also as that goes to a B1G team, likely Iowa or Nebraska). For the host bowls, the Peach has the battle for the State of Michigan as Michigan played both Colorado and Wisconsin and the committee would likely want to avoid a rematch.

There's one error. By contract in the years the Orange Bowl is a semifinal game if the ACC Champ is in the playoff the highest ranked ACC team not in the playoff is assured an access bowl slot so FSU gets a spot in either the Fiesta or Peach.

(12-06-2016 03:51 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(12-06-2016 10:41 AM)MadisonHawk Wrote:  2018-19

Cotton (SF): #1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington
Orange (SF): #2 Clemson vs. #3 Ohio State
Rose: #5 Penn State vs. #9 USC
Sugar: #7 Oklahoma vs. #14 Auburn
Fiesta: #8 Wisconsin vs. #10 Colorado
Peach: #6 Michigan vs. #15 Western Michigan

The Rose and Sugar Bowls are the same as they are this year. Florida is left out due to being ranked behind Colorado (and they miss the Capital One Bowl also as that goes to a B1G team, likely Iowa or Nebraska). For the host bowls, the Peach has the battle for the State of Michigan as Michigan played both Colorado and Wisconsin and the committee would likely want to avoid a rematch.

There's one error. By contract in the years the Orange Bowl is a semifinal game if the ACC Champ is in the playoff the highest ranked ACC team not in the playoff is assured an access bowl slot so FSU gets a spot in either the Fiesta or Peach.

WRONG. The only time the ACC would be guaranteed a 2nd team would be if the Orange is the normal ACC game, and ACC champ goes to playoff. In the years where the Orange is hosting a semifinal, and ACC team is in the playoff, that's all the ACC is guaranteed. P5 conferences are guaranteed ONE team only.

True. But I think that might be a case where you may have seen some shenanigans and Colorado mysteriously found itself ranked number 11 and FSU ranked 10.

(12-06-2016 04:01 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  True. But I think that might be a case where you may have seen some shenanigans and Colorado mysteriously found itself ranked number 11 and FSU ranked 10.

I doubt it. It's not like FSU was all that great. Especially given the year in question has a Fiesta opening, and has 2 Big Ten teams already locked in along with WMU. Colorado would make way more sense than Florida St.

(12-06-2016 04:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-06-2016 04:01 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  True. But I think that might be a case where you may have seen some shenanigans and Colorado mysteriously found itself ranked number 11 and FSU ranked 10.

I doubt it. It's not like FSU was all that great. Especially given the year in question has a Fiesta opening, and has 2 Big Ten teams already locked in along with WMU. Colorado would make way more sense than Florida St.

I don't disagree. It would be the situation of three PAC 12 teams vs. 1 ACC team, and they likely could have wanted to put FSU in the Peach bowl as opposed to Colorado in the Fiesta. Not saying it "would" happen, but that it "could" because it has before.

(12-06-2016 04:16 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(12-06-2016 04:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-06-2016 04:01 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  True. But I think that might be a case where you may have seen some shenanigans and Colorado mysteriously found itself ranked number 11 and FSU ranked 10.

I doubt it. It's not like FSU was all that great. Especially given the year in question has a Fiesta opening, and has 2 Big Ten teams already locked in along with WMU. Colorado would make way more sense than Florida St.

I don't disagree. It would be the situation of three PAC 12 teams vs. 1 ACC team, and they likely could have wanted to put FSU in the Peach bowl as opposed to Colorado in the Fiesta. Not saying it "would" happen, but that it "could" because it has before.

Well 1 answer would be what happens next year. If Fiesta gets G5 team, they won't be in 2 years.

So if Fiesta got G5 next year-
You have WMU locked into Peach
You have Michigan and Wisconsin
you have WMU vs Michigan or Wisconsin in Peach
You have ??? vs Michigan or Wisconsin in Fiesta

I just don't see them sending FSU out to Fiesta.

If Peach got G5 next year, then yes, FSU would likely go Peach.

But the absolute bottom line, FSU is no automatic.

(12-06-2016 03:20 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  It was Miss St.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NCAA_...l_rankings


Going into CCG's, Mich St was #8 and Miss St was #10. Above them, #7 Arizona and #9 Kansas St both lost their respective CCGs.

The result: Miss St #7, Mich St #8 ... without either playing a game. I believe the punchline was that SEC got a higher rated bowl, and the Big Ten got more teams into bowls. Something like that ...

I lost some Disney Vacation Club points because of this. :) I made reservations with the expectation of Clemson being in the Citrus Bowl. Then, at the last minute, the Citrus was no longer an option for the ACC and Clemson ended up in the Russell Athletic Bowl. We went to the game, but with it being a few days earlier than the Citrus, my original reservation dates didn't work out, and by that time all DVC resorts were full, so those points went into a holding status, and then eventually expired. I learned my lesson and I now only make cash reservations during bowl season.