"It's coming whether you like it or not."


Then I'll be going

(12-02-2016 03:21 PM)otown Wrote:  

(12-02-2016 01:00 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(12-02-2016 08:42 AM)otown Wrote:  

(12-02-2016 06:07 AM)vcoog Wrote:  Yup, several times this year American games have drawn much better than the teams that make 10 times from tv than we do. Have to think if it were system based on paying for what you drew the AAC would make what the PAC or ACC makes this year, or at least much closer than how it is currently.

You are looking at it the wrong way. The average and below average P5 teams are all subsidized. The reality is that the P5 conferences gets paid the billions specifically for Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, etc.

In the P5 world, greater than 50% of the teams are subsidized and are not worth more than our conference as far as the TV execs are concerned. They are simply the baggage of the conference. However, TV execs do not feel that they are "overpaying" the coattail riders, because their contract is with the conferences. Those few marquee teams are worth the billions. How the conferences divvy up the money is not TV's concern.

However, the day will come when the marquee teams start getting resentful and will break away from that. If things keep going in this direction, conferences will eventually dissolve and I do believe you will see one super 25 + or - 5 team conference form, and each of those teams may bring in $75 to $150 million a year from the media deal. The Purdue's, Okie State's, Utah's, Arizona State's, Mississippi State's, Miami's, Virginia Tech's, etc...... will drop down to $5 million a team in a lesser conference, which is probably closer to what they are worth.

I see the bolded stated often but I don't think it's quite that true. In reality, there are very few schools in the P5 that provide NO value (meaning that they're not bringing in a desirable TV market, recruiting territory, brand name and/or academic prestige). Just in evaluating your examples alone, Purdue actually does have a ton of value as a massive AAU school that can deliver its home state for TV network purposes. They might double up with Indiana for the Big Ten, but the Big Ten also has an interest in not allowing the SEC, ACC or Big 12 pick up Purdue and split up a state that it completely owns (Notre Dame might be located in Indiana, but it's not really an "Indiana school"). Same thing with Arizona State with respect to the Pac-12 and Virginia Tech with respect to the ACC. If those schools were free agents in the conference realignment market, they would be snapped up by another P5 league *immediately* and the Pac-12 and ACC would be respectively giving up state monopolies in large and fast-growing markets (which would never make sense). Utah is a flagship school in a fast-growing and affluent market. I'm not sure why Miami is on this list (other than you appear to be a Florida fan) - they're the one school where any supposed lack of alumni fervor and attendance are COMPLETELY irrelevant. Miami is a fantastic TV national brand name with great academics that's located in arguably the best pound-for-pound recruiting territory in the country - they're not going anywhere. Oklahoma State and Mississippi State are probably the two schools on your list with the least amount of market value in the sense that they'd have a much harder time finding a P5 home outside of where they're at now.

Regardless, Ohio State and Michigan still need schools like Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue and Minnesota (and now Rutgers and Maryland) because those schools deliver markets that are larger and/or faster growing than their own home markets. In recent years, more Michigan grads end up moving to the Chicago area than stay in the state of Michigan after graduation (and NYC isn't far behind), so they need market vessels in locations where their alums actually live. Even a school like Florida (which is a massive market on its own) gets quite a bit of value by being in an SEC that has network revenue coming in from Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, etc. That's why the Big Ten and SEC are strong - virtually every school brings in SOMETHING of value (whether it's a market or academics). The Pac-12 and ACC also have relatively diverse mixes of schools that drive value.

It's also why it's not an accident that the P5 conference that's in constant danger is the Big 12 since its most valuable national brand name, largest TV market, largest alumni base, best recruiting territory and best academics are all wrapped up in a single school: the University of Texas. Ohio State still needs the rest of the Big Ten, Florida still needs the rest of the SEC, Florida State still needs the rest of the ACC and USC still needs the rest of the Pac-12... but it's clear that Texas doesn't need the rest of the Big 12 (outside of the fact that the Big 12 is willing to bend to whatever Texas needs due to that power).

I would have to disagree. One thing that we have seen lately, is the greed effect taking hold of the schools. Traditions be damned.

A 20-30 team league, with only the best marquee brands, the ones that consistently draw the eyeballs, can easily sign a 10 year, $20 billion dollar deal. That's 2 billion dollars a year, and it includes marquee bowl and playoff coverage. That is a $66-100 million a year for each school in that league. It's coming whether you like it or not.

That's not going to happen with ESPN losing a million customers every quarter; where is this $100 million a team going to come from? A 30 team conference is ludicrous, although, I could see a 20 team super conference with nine divisional and 3 OOC or inter/cross divisional games as possible.

(12-02-2016 05:08 PM)acc4life Wrote:  

(12-02-2016 03:21 PM)otown Wrote:  

(12-02-2016 01:00 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(12-02-2016 08:42 AM)otown Wrote:  

(12-02-2016 06:07 AM)vcoog Wrote:  Yup, several times this year American games have drawn much better than the teams that make 10 times from tv than we do. Have to think if it were system based on paying for what you drew the AAC would make what the PAC or ACC makes this year, or at least much closer than how it is currently.

You are looking at it the wrong way. The average and below average P5 teams are all subsidized. The reality is that the P5 conferences gets paid the billions specifically for Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, etc.

In the P5 world, greater than 50% of the teams are subsidized and are not worth more than our conference as far as the TV execs are concerned. They are simply the baggage of the conference. However, TV execs do not feel that they are "overpaying" the coattail riders, because their contract is with the conferences. Those few marquee teams are worth the billions. How the conferences divvy up the money is not TV's concern.

However, the day will come when the marquee teams start getting resentful and will break away from that. If things keep going in this direction, conferences will eventually dissolve and I do believe you will see one super 25 + or - 5 team conference form, and each of those teams may bring in $75 to $150 million a year from the media deal. The Purdue's, Okie State's, Utah's, Arizona State's, Mississippi State's, Miami's, Virginia Tech's, etc...... will drop down to $5 million a team in a lesser conference, which is probably closer to what they are worth.

I see the bolded stated often but I don't think it's quite that true. In reality, there are very few schools in the P5 that provide NO value (meaning that they're not bringing in a desirable TV market, recruiting territory, brand name and/or academic prestige). Just in evaluating your examples alone, Purdue actually does have a ton of value as a massive AAU school that can deliver its home state for TV network purposes. They might double up with Indiana for the Big Ten, but the Big Ten also has an interest in not allowing the SEC, ACC or Big 12 pick up Purdue and split up a state that it completely owns (Notre Dame might be located in Indiana, but it's not really an "Indiana school"). Same thing with Arizona State with respect to the Pac-12 and Virginia Tech with respect to the ACC. If those schools were free agents in the conference realignment market, they would be snapped up by another P5 league *immediately* and the Pac-12 and ACC would be respectively giving up state monopolies in large and fast-growing markets (which would never make sense). Utah is a flagship school in a fast-growing and affluent market. I'm not sure why Miami is on this list (other than you appear to be a Florida fan) - they're the one school where any supposed lack of alumni fervor and attendance are COMPLETELY irrelevant. Miami is a fantastic TV national brand name with great academics that's located in arguably the best pound-for-pound recruiting territory in the country - they're not going anywhere. Oklahoma State and Mississippi State are probably the two schools on your list with the least amount of market value in the sense that they'd have a much harder time finding a P5 home outside of where they're at now.

Regardless, Ohio State and Michigan still need schools like Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue and Minnesota (and now Rutgers and Maryland) because those schools deliver markets that are larger and/or faster growing than their own home markets. In recent years, more Michigan grads end up moving to the Chicago area than stay in the state of Michigan after graduation (and NYC isn't far behind), so they need market vessels in locations where their alums actually live. Even a school like Florida (which is a massive market on its own) gets quite a bit of value by being in an SEC that has network revenue coming in from Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, etc. That's why the Big Ten and SEC are strong - virtually every school brings in SOMETHING of value (whether it's a market or academics). The Pac-12 and ACC also have relatively diverse mixes of schools that drive value.

It's also why it's not an accident that the P5 conference that's in constant danger is the Big 12 since its most valuable national brand name, largest TV market, largest alumni base, best recruiting territory and best academics are all wrapped up in a single school: the University of Texas. Ohio State still needs the rest of the Big Ten, Florida still needs the rest of the SEC, Florida State still needs the rest of the ACC and USC still needs the rest of the Pac-12... but it's clear that Texas doesn't need the rest of the Big 12 (outside of the fact that the Big 12 is willing to bend to whatever Texas needs due to that power).

I would have to disagree. One thing that we have seen lately, is the greed effect taking hold of the schools. Traditions be damned.

A 20-30 team league, with only the best marquee brands, the ones that consistently draw the eyeballs, can easily sign a 10 year, $20 billion dollar deal. That's 2 billion dollars a year, and it includes marquee bowl and playoff coverage. That is a $66-100 million a year for each school in that league. It's coming whether you like it or not.

That's not going to happen with ESPN losing a million customers every quarter; where is this $100 million a team going to come from? A 30 team conference is ludicrous, although, I could see a 20 team super conference with nine divisional and 3 OOC or inter/cross divisional games as possible.

You are thinking 2 dimensionally. Remember, with this, all the marquee schools from all the main conferences are consolidated. This is a consolidation of all the brands and money that matter across all the ncaa. They negotiate as one. There are no other major NCAA conference contracts in this setting. It becomes on par with NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL contract negotiations. ESPN, CBS, FOX will fight for the contract....... because whoever gets that contract, owns the entire NCAA football scene financially speaking across every time zone.

Using ESPN as an example...... you can have Florida vs Michigan, Ohio State vs Texas, USC vs Notre Dame, PSU vs FSU, Oregon vs Auburn And many more like this, all on any given Saturday, spread across ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU.

Each game would consistently be bringing in 3.0 plus ratings. Each channel becomes golden every Saturday.

(12-02-2016 01:54 PM)Kronke Wrote:  This conference is criminally underpaid.

No doubt.

But what exactly can Aresco do? I think ESPN has hinted at a possible renegotiation this spring (or is after NEXT year??). But those greedy bastards hold the contract and could laugh at the AAC for 3 more years.

I'd like Aresco to fully explore streaming with Netflix or whomever.

As a conference, all everyone can do is improve their programs and beat the P5 teams that are scheduled. We can all anticipate the P5 schools start denying key G5 teams any regular season games. Hell, we are seeing some P5 conferences allowing their teams to schedule each other as OOC opponents if they don't play in the regular conference schedule.

(12-02-2016 01:40 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(12-02-2016 01:27 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(12-02-2016 01:00 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(12-02-2016 08:42 AM)otown Wrote:  

(12-02-2016 06:07 AM)vcoog Wrote:  Yup, several times this year American games have drawn much better than the teams that make 10 times from tv than we do. Have to think if it were system based on paying for what you drew the AAC would make what the PAC or ACC makes this year, or at least much closer than how it is currently.

You are looking at it the wrong way. The average and below average P5 teams are all subsidized. The reality is that the P5 conferences gets paid the billions specifically for Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, etc.

In the P5 world, greater than 50% of the teams are subsidized and are not worth more than our conference as far as the TV execs are concerned. They are simply the baggage of the conference. However, TV execs do not feel that they are "overpaying" the coattail riders, because their contract is with the conferences. Those few marquee teams are worth the billions. How the conferences divvy up the money is not TV's concern.

However, the day will come when the marquee teams start getting resentful and will break away from that. If things keep going in this direction, conferences will eventually dissolve and I do believe you will see one super 25 + or - 5 team conference form, and each of those teams may bring in $75 to $150 million a year from the media deal. The Purdue's, Okie State's, Utah's, Arizona State's, Mississippi State's, Miami's, Virginia Tech's, etc...... will drop down to $5 million a team in a lesser conference, which is probably closer to what they are worth.

I see the bolded stated often but I don't think it's quite that true. In reality, there are very few schools in the P5 that provide NO value (meaning that they're not bringing in a desirable TV market, recruiting territory, brand name and/or academic prestige). Just in evaluating your examples alone, Purdue actually does have a ton of value as a massive AAU school that can deliver its home state for TV network purposes. They might double up with Indiana for the Big Ten, but the Big Ten also has an interest in not allowing the SEC, ACC or Big 12 pick up Purdue and split up a state that it completely owns (Notre Dame might be located in Indiana, but it's not really an "Indiana school"). Same thing with Arizona State with respect to the Pac-12 and Virginia Tech with respect to the ACC. If those schools were free agents in the conference realignment market, they would be snapped up by another P5 league *immediately* and the Pac-12 and ACC would be respectively giving up state monopolies in large and fast-growing markets (which would never make sense). Utah is a flagship school in a fast-growing and affluent market. I'm not sure why Miami is on this list (other than you appear to be a Florida fan) - they're the one school where any supposed lack of alumni fervor and attendance are COMPLETELY irrelevant. Miami is a fantastic TV national brand name with great academics that's located in arguably the best pound-for-pound recruiting territory in the country - they're not going anywhere. Oklahoma State and Mississippi State are probably the two schools on your list with the least amount of market value in the sense that they'd have a much harder time finding a P5 home outside of where they're at now.

Regardless, Ohio State and Michigan still need schools like Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue and Minnesota (and now Rutgers and Maryland) because those schools deliver markets that are larger and/or faster growing than their own home markets. In recent years, more Michigan grads end up moving to the Chicago area than stay in the state of Michigan after graduation (and NYC isn't far behind), so they need market vessels in locations where their alums actually live. Even a school like Florida (which is a massive market on its own) gets quite a bit of value by being in an SEC that has network revenue coming in from Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, etc. That's why the Big Ten and SEC are strong - virtually every school brings in SOMETHING of value (whether it's a market or academics). The Pac-12 and ACC also have relatively diverse mixes of schools that drive value.

It's also why it's not an accident that the P5 conference that's in constant danger is the Big 12 since its most valuable national brand name, largest TV market, largest alumni base, best recruiting territory and best academics are all wrapped up in a single school: the University of Texas. Ohio State still needs the rest of the Big Ten, Florida still needs the rest of the SEC, Florida State still needs the rest of the ACC and USC still needs the rest of the Pac-12... but it's clear that Texas doesn't need the rest of the Big 12 (outside of the fact that the Big 12 is willing to bend to whatever Texas needs due to that power).

Do you believe all the ish you typed. Lol

What exactly is actually wrong with what I've stated? Do you think schools and conferences think differently? If you disagree with me, do you believe that the Alabamas and Ohio States of the world want to split off in an NFL-type superleague? I'm always happy to engage in a substantive debate if there's actually some argument with substance.

You may be right---but when this subject comes up I'm always reminded of the conversation between B12 officials and an unnamed ABC executive regarding the value of the SWC as a whole vs the value of Texas by itself. The Big8 was considering a full merger with the 8 SWC members. The Big8 rep asked the tv executive what would the Big8 value be if they added the entire SWC. The executive spit out a number. Then the Big8 honcho asked---what would the Big8 value be if they just added Texas---the tv guy spit out the exact same number.

While the SWC situation was extreme and I'm sure Michigan and Ohio St believe Indiana and Northwestern have value---I'd bet the networks believe the vast majority of Big10 value lies in Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, and Penn St. Let those 4 leave and Indiana is no better offf than Baylor will be when Texas leaves the Big12.

One thing we do know is schools have given up deeply ingrained traditions (where is my Thanksgiving Texas vs Texas A&M game???) if the price is right. So, if the networks do feel that way, i don't know that it's all that crazy to think the schools might eventually drift in that direction. All it would require some sort of a trigger---like if media revenue starts to drop in the future due to cord cutting....

These top 25 "super" schools & the idea of a breakaway are a theoretical nonsense. Those 40+ schools, whoever they are beyond Alabama & OSU that are the P5 are the necessary schedule foder. Without those additional schools & probably another 20+, scheduling doesn't work. It's really as simple as that - the power schools need 65 to 85 schools to schedule efficiently to provide a 12 game schedule.

(12-03-2016 09:30 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  These top 25 "super" schools & the idea of a breakaway are a theoretical nonsense. Those 40+ schools, whoever they are beyond Alabama & OSU that are the P5 are the necessary schedule foder. Without those additional schools & probably another 20+, scheduling doesn't work. It's really as simple as that - the power schools need 65 to 85 schools to schedule efficiently to provide a 12 game schedule.

accurate


let those fools break off...they will be playing a lame round robin schedule with each other. We will see how that goes when they are all .500 lol