(12-01-2016 11:45 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(12-01-2016 11:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-01-2016 11:23 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(12-01-2016 11:01 AM)stever20 Wrote:  One point- the Orange Bowl has absolutely NO choice in the team. They will get the highest rated remaining team from the SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame- after the contract bowls are selected.

That's incorrect. The Orange Bowl actually very much has a choice because it *is* a contract bowl and get priority over the access bowls. At the same time, they can take the "best available" school remaining from the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it *has* to be the highest ranked team left. "Best available" could certainly mean "the school that we think will sell the most tickets and draw the highest TV ratings". The same thing applies to, say, the Sugar Bowl's SEC tie-in (where they could take LSU instead of the SEC Championship Game loser or Auburn if they really wanted to do so). I'm not saying that this *would* happen (as the practical application has generally been to take the highest ranked team available), but the contracts still explicitly provide this type of flexibility.

Of course, I think the point is moot since, if no upsets occur, Michigan is going to be the highest ranked team out of the SEC/Big Ten/ND pool AND they're going to be the team that's going to sell the most tickets and draw the highest TV ratings. The Orange isn't passing up on Michigan if they're available. The only way the Orange doesn't end up with Michigan is if the Wolverines make it into the playoff (which could certainly happen with a single top 4 upset considering that Michigan has beaten Wisconsin, Penn State AND Colorado head-to-head).

you missed the word that I used. after the CONTRACT bowls are selected. Rose and Sugar are selected first.

It's actually very possible, if not likely that Michigan will be in the Rose Bowl. If the Big Ten champ makes the playoff, Michigan would be Rose Bowl bound.

The Orange has ZERO choice in things though. It is selected for them by the committee.
This is from 2 years ago 1st year- but it still applies:
http://game.orangebowl.org/assets/1/7/Ro..._(web).pdf
During the eight years when the Orange Bowl does not host a semifinal it will feature the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Champion, or if the champion is participating in the College Football Playoff the next highest ranked ACC school (selected by the CFP selection committee), against the highest ranked available school from either the Big Ten Conference, Southeastern Conference (SEC) or Notre Dame (as chosen by the CFP selection committee).

Ok - fair enough. You're correct there and I was mistaken.

I do think that it's actually more likely for Michigan to end up in the playoff instead of the Rose Bowl, though. We basically have a perfect storm of a CFP conundrum if Colorado beats Washington because that means Michigan would be sitting at #5 with head-to-head wins over both the Big Ten champ (whether PSU or Wisconsin) AND the Pac-12 champ (Colorado) for the last playoff spot. In most years, I would have said that the conference championship would be valued more. However, this year's situation has actual and unambiguous head-to-head results between the schools in question... and my gut feeling is that the head-to-head results would take priority over the conference championships (which favors Michigan).

let's put it this way-
Big Ten gets 1 team in playoff- Michigan will be in Orange Bowl
Big Ten gets 2 teams in playoff- Michigan will be in either playoff or Rose Bowl

what would be funny as hell- what if Big Ten got 3 teams in playoff. Colorado upsets Washington and Va Tech upsets Clemson.
You get Ohio St, Wisconsin/Penn St, and Michigan all in there.

Rose Bowl takes Wisconsin/Penn St loser.

Orange Bowl would then get Florida to play against Va Tech.

Quote:I was under the impression that the Rose Bowl goes to the B1G champion unless they are in the final four.

It goes to the "next best" to B1G winner, if the B1G winner went to the Final Four. Pretty much the Divisional Winner, in the case of a close-call between two teams (MSU won, went to Final Four; MSU beat Iowa in B1G Champ game, Iowa went to Rose Bowl).

Whichever B1G plays in the Cotton Bowl will be, by default, the 4th best team in the B1G.

1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin/Penn [Definitely if Wisconsin beats Penn State]
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin/Penn

The loser of the Wisc/Penn game will have 3L, and both lost to UM, so I can't see how UM would get to 4th-best.

However, instead of Michigan going to the Orange Bowl (3rd best), I could see them switching them to Cotton. ONLY if UM wanted that, which I doubt.

(12-01-2016 07:36 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:I was under the impression that the Rose Bowl goes to the B1G champion unless they are in the final four.

It goes to the "next best" to B1G winner, if the B1G winner went to the Final Four. Pretty much the Divisional Winner, in the case of a close-call between two teams (MSU won, went to Final Four; MSU beat Iowa in B1G Champ game, Iowa went to Rose Bowl).

Whichever B1G plays in the Cotton Bowl will be, by default, the 4th best team in the B1G.

1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin/Penn [Definitely if Wisconsin beats Penn State]
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin/Penn

The loser of the Wisc/Penn game will have 3L, and both lost to UM, so I can't see how UM would get to 4th-best.

However, instead of Michigan going to the Orange Bowl (3rd best), I could see them switching them to Cotton. ONLY if UM wanted that, which I doubt.

Michigan definitely doesn't want to go to the Cotton Bowl. Remember that they're playing in Dallas against Florida to open up next season. There's little in it for Michigan to have 2 trips to Jerry World within an 8 month span, whereas Miami is a natural draw for Wolverine fans.

Even without that factor, for the average Big Ten team, the preference among the CFP bowls is generally (1) Rose, (2)(tie) Orange and Fiesta, (4) Sugar, (5) Cotton, and (6) Peach. Remember that people from the Midwest and Northeast already travel to California, Florida and Arizona during the holidays in high numbers in the normal course for vacation, which means a bowl game in those locations is an easy sell for them. New Orleans is also an attractive tourist destination, so the Sugar Bowl is usually an easy sell for Big Ten fans (and you could see how the Sugar liked picking Big Ten schools whenever it could in the old BCS system). However, Dallas and Atlanta are strictly "business trip" locales for most people in Big Ten country - we just aren't predisposed to take vacations to those places, so it's higher hurdle when a trip is *strictly* for a bowl game without adding on time at beaches, theme parks, resorts, etc.

(12-01-2016 08:53 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(12-01-2016 07:36 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:I was under the impression that the Rose Bowl goes to the B1G champion unless they are in the final four.

It goes to the "next best" to B1G winner, if the B1G winner went to the Final Four. Pretty much the Divisional Winner, in the case of a close-call between two teams (MSU won, went to Final Four; MSU beat Iowa in B1G Champ game, Iowa went to Rose Bowl).

Whichever B1G plays in the Cotton Bowl will be, by default, the 4th best team in the B1G.

1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin/Penn [Definitely if Wisconsin beats Penn State]
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin/Penn

The loser of the Wisc/Penn game will have 3L, and both lost to UM, so I can't see how UM would get to 4th-best.

However, instead of Michigan going to the Orange Bowl (3rd best), I could see them switching them to Cotton. ONLY if UM wanted that, which I doubt.

Michigan definitely doesn't want to go to the Cotton Bowl. Remember that they're playing in Dallas against Florida to open up next season. There's little in it for Michigan to have 2 trips to Jerry World within an 8 month span, whereas Miami is a natural draw for Wolverine fans.

Even without that factor, for the average Big Ten team, the preference among the CFP bowls is generally (1) Rose, (2)(tie) Orange and Fiesta, (4) Sugar, (5) Cotton, and (6) Peach. Remember that people from the Midwest and Northeast already travel to California, Florida and Arizona during the holidays in high numbers in the normal course for vacation, which means a bowl game in those locations is an easy sell for them. New Orleans is also an attractive tourist destination, so the Sugar Bowl is usually an easy sell for Big Ten fans (and you could see how the Sugar liked picking Big Ten schools whenever it could in the old BCS system). However, Dallas and Atlanta are strictly "business trip" locales for most people in Big Ten country - we just aren't predisposed to take vacations to those places, so it's higher hurdle when a trip is *strictly* for a bowl game without adding on time at beaches, theme parks, resorts, etc.

For once Frank I am in complete agreement with you. I would have zero interest in watching an unmotivated Michigan totally overwhelm and embarrass WMU. Now I do believe that Navy vs Wisconsin or Penn state would be awesome.

I don't think it's about Vacation. People would rather see their team to the ROSE BOWL in Cali, where, it's less vacation-like than Florida.

But there's a reason why the Cotton's the "last" for All P5 teams (vs G5) this year -- it's a great bowl, but, there's no conference tie-in either way.

If PSU (or I guess Wisc) gets bent over and ball-banged badly, there won't be a 4th B1G team. But assuming it's a great game, which I think we all know it will be (rubbing hands together) -- yeah, it'll be the loser going to it.

But remember that the "BCS" bowls rotate. NIU went to the Orange, which is now on the level of the Sugar. Things shift, so you don't want to attribute it merely to the name of the bowl.

The Rose Bowl obviously will never budge, but the others will.

(12-01-2016 08:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  If Michigan doesn't go to the CFP, they will be in either the Rose or Orange Bowls.

In other words, Michigan is going to the Rose Bowl or Orange Bowl this season.

Loser of Big Ten CCG will go to the other.

(12-02-2016 12:58 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(12-01-2016 08:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  If Michigan doesn't go to the CFP, they will be in either the Rose or Orange Bowls.

In other words, Michigan is going to the Rose Bowl or Orange Bowl this season.

Loser of Big Ten CCG will go to the other.

not necessarily. If Clemson and Washington win and the playoff is Alabama/Washington and Clemson/Ohio St- very possible, Big Ten champion goes to Rose Bowl, Michigan goes to Orange Bowl, and then if the loser of Penn St/Wisconsin is ahead of the Non Rose Bowl team between Colorado/USC, they would go to the Cotton Bowl.

(12-02-2016 04:02 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  I don't think it's about Vacation. People would rather see their team to the ROSE BOWL in Cali, where, it's less vacation-like than Florida.

But there's a reason why the Cotton's the "last" for All P5 teams (vs G5) this year -- it's a great bowl, but, there's no conference tie-in either way.

If PSU (or I guess Wisc) gets bent over and ball-banged badly, there won't be a 4th B1G team. But assuming it's a great game, which I think we all know it will be (rubbing hands together) -- yeah, it'll be the loser going to it.

But remember that the "BCS" bowls rotate. NIU went to the Orange, which is now on the level of the Sugar. Things shift, so you don't want to attribute it merely to the name of the bowl.

The Rose Bowl obviously will never budge, but the others will.

I agree that the Rose Bowl is particularly special - there's no doubt about that. I was lucky enough to attend the Rose Bowl when Illinois made it there for the 2007 season, and it really is amazing with the pageantry of the entire experience. People from outside of the Big Ten and Pac-12 wonder why the leagues have cared so much about the Rose Bowl, but it IS a totally different experience compared to anywhere else.

That being said, I'd beg to differ that LA and Southern California are less vacation-like than Florida. Southern California is every bit as much of a tourist haven (especially when it's cold in the North during the winter) - the only difference is that there are a lot more non-tourism-related jobs in California compared to Florida, so the tourist-to-local proportion probably seems different at any given time.

I can tell you that for the average family living in Chicago, going to the Citrus Bowl in Orlando or Outback Bowl in Tampa for New Year's is a helluva an easier sell than going to the Cotton Bowl or Peach Bowl despite those Florida-based bowls being on a lower tier by comparison. The main attraction for the Cotton and Peach Bowls is that they're within a relatively short *driving* distance of a large number of schools in the Big 12, SEC and/or ACC. Neither of those bowls are really attractive to people that actually need to go on a plane to get there (as if they're going to have to commit that way, then they very often DO want to plan a trip where they can do a lot of other activities outside of attending a bowl game).

(12-02-2016 01:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If Clemson and Washington win and the playoff is Alabama/Washington and Clemson/Ohio St

Well yeah, if the playoff was that way.

But this is what's going to happen:

Alabama/Wisc
Ohio St/Wash

Michigan Rose
Penn St Orange

(12-02-2016 01:22 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Neither of those bowls are really attractive to people that actually need to go on a plane to get there

Agree 100%.

Atlanta and Dallas are just places where people live and work. There's nothing particularly special about them, otherwise. No different than Minneapolis, in that respect.

And they're not particularly warm in the winter, anyway. Comfortable, on average, sure.

(12-02-2016 01:38 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(12-02-2016 01:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If Clemson and Washington win and the playoff is Alabama/Washington and Clemson/Ohio St

Well yeah, if the playoff was that way.

But this is what's going to happen:

Alabama/Wisc
Ohio St/Wash

Michigan Rose
Penn St Orange

(12-02-2016 01:22 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Neither of those bowls are really attractive to people that actually need to go on a plane to get there

Agree 100%.

Atlanta and Dallas are just places where people live and work. There's nothing particularly special about them, otherwise. No different than Minneapolis, in that respect.

And they're not particularly warm in the winter, anyway. Comfortable, on average, sure.

Sorry but no chance in hell Wisconsin is going to jump ahead of Clemson if Clemson wins. Nice story though.

(12-02-2016 01:38 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Well yeah, if the playoff was that way.

But this is what's going to happen:

Alabama/Wisc
Ohio St/Wash

Michigan Rose
Penn St Orange

That is a new one.

(12-02-2016 01:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Sorry but no chance in hell Wisconsin is going to jump ahead of Clemson if Clemson wins. Nice story though.

Struggles against #23 VT, while Wisconsin pounds #7 Penn St, with OT loss to #2 Ohio St and a 7-14 loss to #5 Michigan ???????

Don't be so sure, stever. It has happened before (*cough*Ohio St - 2014*cough*) Now run and go get your stats explaining how that's not a comparable scenario.

(12-02-2016 02:09 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(12-02-2016 01:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Sorry but no chance in hell Wisconsin is going to jump ahead of Clemson if Clemson wins. Nice story though.

Struggles against #23 VT, while Wisconsin pounds #7 Penn St, with OT loss to #2 Ohio St and a 7-14 loss to #5 Michigan ???????

Don't be so sure, stever. It has happened before (*cough*Ohio St - 2014*cough*) Now run and go get your stats explaining how that's not a comparable scenario.

if any team got bumped, it would be Washington. Clemson with at least 3 top 25 wins(4 if VT remains in). Washington would have only 3. Clemson has a 77 spot SOS lead over Washington.

Well, maybe.

But if it has to be a Clemson loss and a Washington win to make it happen, so be it.

Clemson is not a historically elite program. They had their limelight last year. Time for them to go away for a few years!

what's going to be funny as heck will be if Colorado beats Washington tonight- the committee would be set perfectly with Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St, and Big Ten champion. Chaos would ensue if Va Tech beat Clemson.

But I want Washington instead of Clemson!

What I would really want is for Washington to win, but get passed by Wisconsin or Penn St. To show teams once and for good, if you don't schedule well OOC, you can't just count on getting in the playoff.

Well no one in a million years could guess that was your agenda!

You'd prefer 6 conf games after the first 6-7 weeks of the season were all Texas v Michigan, Alabama v Notre Dame, USC v Florida, Miami v Nebraska type matches!!

(12-02-2016 02:44 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Well no one in a million years could guess that was your agenda!

You'd prefer 6 conf games after the first 6-7 weeks of the season were all Texas v Michigan, Alabama v Notre Dame, USC v Florida, Miami v Nebraska type matches!!

And no one could guess yours.

You don't have to have all great OOC games, but you have to go out and have at least 1 good game.

What can I say?

If I could make it be 12 conf games ... I'd probably do that.