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Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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Post: #1
Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
Now that we know that Bailiff is returning, I decided to take a look at the personnel we have returning... This thread can also be used to discuss potential new defensive coordinators:

I have listed all the players returning from the Stanford two-deep:

QB: Tyner, Granato
RB: Sam Stewart, Austin Walter
WR: Temi Alaka, Kylen Granson, Aston Walter, Cameron Johnson
TE: Robby Wells
LT: Calvin Anderson, Matt Terrill
LG: Peter Godber (Joe Dill returns from injury)
C: Trey Martin, Crockett Mokry
RG: Cory Klingler
RT: Sam Pierce

DE: Blain Padgett, Brady Wright, Brian Womac, Graysen Schantz
DT: Preston Gordon, Roe Wilkins, Myles Adams, Parker Hanusa (Carl Thompson and Zach Abercrumbia should return from injury too)
LB: Emmanuel Ellerbee, Nick Uretsky, Uzoma Akunebu
SS: JP Thompson
FS: Cole Thomas, JT Ibe
KAT: Destri White, Christian Bertrand
CB: VJ Banks, Brandon Douglas, D'Angelo Ellis (Justin Bickham should return from injury too)

Tobola and Fox return for special teams. Fox is a pretty good punter but would like to see us bring in another guy to compete at kicker.

Once again, we'll be strong at RB with Walter and Stewart. Our defensive line has a chance to be pretty good too. Some decent experience in the secondary.

OL and LB look somewhat thin.

I wonder if we could see a change in our base defense with a new coordinator.
11-29-2016 11:34 PM
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ChicagoOwl (BS '07) Offline
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
At this point I'm worried most about *QB* and *kicker*. We aren't going nowhere without improved play from both.
After that the *safeties* - though perhaps (hopefully) the position coach was partially to blame here.
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2016 10:51 AM by ChicagoOwl (BS '07).)
11-30-2016 10:48 AM
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westsidewolf1989 Offline
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
Tyner guaranteed to start next year - he is three months older than Granato.
11-30-2016 10:58 AM
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waltgreenberg Online
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(11-30-2016 10:58 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  Tyner guaranteed to start next year - he is three months older than Granato.

Isn't our most talented QB the incoming true Freshman? It will be a real and immediate test to see if DB is truly ready to change his stripes...and go with talent over seniority.
11-30-2016 03:32 PM
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ChicagoOwl (BS '07) Offline
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(11-30-2016 03:32 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(11-30-2016 10:58 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  Tyner guaranteed to start next year - he is three months older than Granato.

Isn't our most talented QB the incoming true Freshman? It will be a real and immediate test to see if DB is truly ready to change his stripes...and go with talent over seniority.

Glad to laugh with you guys, but have to disagree. If there's one thing we've learned it's that Bailiff plays talent over seniority, once you factor in the value of a redshirt year.

Did we discover that Stehling was notably better than Driphus? No.
Tyner over Stehling? Probably not either.
11-30-2016 03:49 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(11-30-2016 03:49 PM)ChicagoOwl (BS 07) Wrote:  Glad to laugh with you guys, but have to disagree. If there's one thing we've learned it's that Bailiff plays talent over seniority, once you factor in the value of a redshirt year.

Did we discover that Stehling was notably better than Driphus? No.
Tyner over Stehling? Probably not either.

I think the actual debate about Tyner vs Stehling was that Tyner had already red-shirted, so if there wasn't a meaningful talent/skill difference, and almost no difference in game experience... you play the younger guy more often. Maybe not exclusively (because there is value in being able to watch, and THEN go do, and THEN evaluate again)... but more than just to hand off the ball at the end of a blowout. As it turned out with the injury, it probably worked out about the same... but I'm sure that wasn't the plan (the injury)

Absolutely you let someone red-shirt if they aren't an immediate upgrade
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2016 05:01 PM by Hambone10.)
11-30-2016 05:00 PM
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(11-30-2016 03:32 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(11-30-2016 10:58 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  Tyner guaranteed to start next year - he is three months older than Granato.

Isn't our most talented QB the incoming true Freshman? It will be a real and immediate test to see if DB is truly ready to change his stripes...and go with talent over seniority.

Not necessarily...

Here is the recruiting info (247Sports) on the four scholarship QB's we have for next year:

J.T. Granato: .8373, Other Offers: UH
Jackson Tyner: .8199, Other Offers: None (Interest from Arkansas)
Sam Glaesmann: .8046 Other Offers: Utah State
Miklo Smalls: .8295 Other Offers: SMU, Colorado State

IMO, they're all so close that all four should be competing for the job next fall.
11-30-2016 05:08 PM
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ChicagoOwl (BS '07) Offline
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(11-30-2016 05:00 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(11-30-2016 03:49 PM)ChicagoOwl (BS 07) Wrote:  Glad to laugh with you guys, but have to disagree. If there's one thing we've learned it's that Bailiff plays talent over seniority, once you factor in the value of a redshirt year.

Did we discover that Stehling was notably better than Driphus? No.
Tyner over Stehling? Probably not either.

I think the actual debate about Tyner vs Stehling was that Tyner had already red-shirted, so if there wasn't a meaningful talent/skill difference, and almost no difference in game experience... you play the younger guy more often. Maybe not exclusively (because there is value in being able to watch, and THEN go do, and THEN evaluate again)... but more than just to hand off the ball at the end of a blowout. As it turned out with the injury, it probably worked out about the same... but I'm sure that wasn't the plan (the injury)

Absolutely you let someone red-shirt if they aren't an immediate upgrade

Fair, but that's an issue of development. I'm fine saying Bailiff is short-sighted/risk averse regarding development. He'll play the marginally better senior player over letting the marginally worse younger player develop.

But I see 0 evidence indicating Bailiff leaves the more skilled player on the sidelines.
11-30-2016 05:54 PM
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Rice93 Online
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(11-30-2016 03:49 PM)ChicagoOwl (BS 07) Wrote:  
(11-30-2016 03:32 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(11-30-2016 10:58 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  Tyner guaranteed to start next year - he is three months older than Granato.

Isn't our most talented QB the incoming true Freshman? It will be a real and immediate test to see if DB is truly ready to change his stripes...and go with talent over seniority.

Glad to laugh with you guys, but have to disagree. If there's one thing we've learned it's that Bailiff plays talent over seniority, once you factor in the value of a redshirt year.

Did we discover that Stehling was notably better than Driphus? No.
Tyner over Stehling? Probably not either.

I didn't have a problem with DB playing Stehling over Tyner/Granato (or Driphus over Stehling). I have a problem with DB not taking advantage of the ample opportunities to give his backup QB meaningful minutes to get them ready/see what they have before they take over. If Stehling didn't get hurt this year neither backup QB would have gotten any meaningful snaps. That is baffling.
11-30-2016 06:07 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(11-30-2016 05:54 PM)ChicagoOwl (BS 07) Wrote:  Fair, but that's an issue of development. I'm fine saying Bailiff is short-sighted/risk averse regarding development. He'll play the marginally better senior player over letting the marginally worse younger player develop.

But I see 0 evidence indicating Bailiff leaves the more skilled player on the sidelines.

That's fine... I'm just saying that I'm not convinced that many, or perhaps even any people were suggesting that we had better players on the sidelines.

What most (including I'm sure myself, numbers and apparently 93 here) were saying was that he may not be better today, but if he is close, then we are not really worse off this year, and he will be MUCH better than he would have been NEXT year.
11-30-2016 08:30 PM
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Bailiff_Lingo_Bingo Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(11-30-2016 08:30 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(11-30-2016 05:54 PM)ChicagoOwl (BS 07) Wrote:  Fair, but that's an issue of development. I'm fine saying Bailiff is short-sighted/risk averse regarding development. He'll play the marginally better senior player over letting the marginally worse younger player develop.

But I see 0 evidence indicating Bailiff leaves the more skilled player on the sidelines.

That's fine... I'm just saying that I'm not convinced that many, or perhaps even any people were suggesting that we had better players on the sidelines.

What most (including I'm sure myself, numbers and apparently 93 here) were saying was that he may not be better today, but if he is close, then we are not really worse off this year, and he will be MUCH better than he would have been NEXT year.

Makes sense in principle, and certainly for other teams, but it's not clear that additional playing time has made *our* QBs noticeably better. The trajectories have been flat, to my untrained eye.
12-01-2016 01:33 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(11-30-2016 08:30 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  That's fine... I'm just saying that I'm not convinced that many, or perhaps even any people were suggesting that we had better players on the sidelines.

Certainly some do - that is the whole gist of the "he plays seniors ahead of talented underclassmen" accusation.
12-01-2016 10:26 AM
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(11-29-2016 11:34 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  Now that we know that Bailiff is returning, I decided to take a look at the personnel we have returning... This thread can also be used to discuss potential new defensive coordinators:

I have listed all the players returning from the Stanford two-deep:

QB: Tyner, Granato
RB: Sam Stewart, Austin Walter
WR: Temi Alaka, Kylen Granson, Aston Walter, Cameron Johnson
TE: Robby Wells
LT: Calvin Anderson, Matt Terrill
LG: Peter Godber (Joe Dill returns from injury)
C: Trey Martin, Crockett Mokry
RG: Cory Klingler
RT: Sam Pierce

DE: Blain Padgett, Brady Wright, Brian Womac, Graysen Schantz
DT: Preston Gordon, Roe Wilkins, Myles Adams, Parker Hanusa (Carl Thompson and Zach Abercrumbia should return from injury too)
LB: Emmanuel Ellerbee, Nick Uretsky, Uzoma Akunebu
SS: JP Thompson
FS: Cole Thomas, JT Ibe
KAT: Destri White, Christian Bertrand
CB: VJ Banks, Brandon Douglas, D'Angelo Ellis (Justin Bickham should return from injury too)

Tobola and Fox return for special teams. Fox is a pretty good punter but would like to see us bring in another guy to compete at kicker.

Once again, we'll be strong at RB with Walter and Stewart. Our defensive line has a chance to be pretty good too. Some decent experience in the secondary.

OL and LB look somewhat thin.

I wonder if we could see a change in our base defense with a new coordinator.

I agree that QB and kicker are areas of concerns. From what I've seen from Granato, Tyner, and what we've heard on Glaesmann (coaches considered burning his redshirt even though we had 3 upperclassmen available), I think there's enough to be at least serviceable at QB, but we really need one of them to step up and be more than that. We have some returning WR's who are pretty good, but I'm not counting on a big time passing game. Tyner plays the option really well, so if he can improve on his downfield passing he's a good candidate. The option will probably be a big part of the offense.

The defense has a chance to be good. The front 7 is solid, with Ellerbee leading the way, but guys like Padgett, Womac, Abrecumbria, Thompson, Gordon and others capable of being major contributors. The secondary is more of a question mark, but having Banks and Bickham at CB (both over 6 ft) we should be ok there, and hopefully the new safeties coach helps. A change in scheme to avoid the 85 yard completions is vital.

There's enough there to give me hope of a turn around season.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2016 12:53 PM by Buho00.)
12-01-2016 11:22 AM
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Hambone10 Offline
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(12-01-2016 10:26 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(11-30-2016 08:30 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  That's fine... I'm just saying that I'm not convinced that many, or perhaps even any people were suggesting that we had better players on the sidelines.

Certainly some do - that is the whole gist of the "he plays seniors ahead of talented underclassmen" accusation.

My entire point was that this is a misconception of what MOST of us were saying.

If you have a Sr and a True Freshman and they're about the same... of course, redshirt him.

If you have a Sr and a Redshirt Freshman and they're about the same... get the RS freshman more serious playing time and don't be afraid to play him OVER the senior if he turns out to be a 'gamer'. It not only allows both QBs to learn by watching and then being allowed/encouraged to go DO (and not just hand-off in a blowout). Especially true if the QB position isn't particularly strong to begin with.

The 'if you have 2, you have none' is true, but it doesn't mean you MUST go with one... It can also mean you simply don't have a real strength there right now. PART of the way to fix that is to recruit a better QB, but ALSO to develop the guy on the bench who still has 2+ years to develop, as opposed to the guy who has been in the system for years already and only has 8 more games to develop and can't help next year. If you have two, you play the younger guy more.... because he has more time/potential to develop....EVEN just in those 8 remaining games this season.
12-01-2016 12:12 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(12-01-2016 11:22 AM)Buho00 Wrote:  There's enough there to give me hope of a turn around season.

I don't generally disagree, but given how the season shapes up, I'm not sure the record will necessarily reflect that. We were 2 scores away from 2 more wins... but to bad teams.

Meaning we can win only 4-5 next year, but still move from #120 to #80... which would be a dramatic improvement. Winning 6 is going to be tough. Not impossible, but tough. A lot depends on whom we get in the crossovers. There will once again be 2-3 teams ranked north of 110 in our division next season... and then 2-3 ranked better than 80.

rankings aren't just about opinions anymore like they were in the 80's and 90's. They are sophisticated computer models. They may not reflect your potential, but they generally reflect what has shown up on game day (for whatever reasons).
12-01-2016 12:18 PM
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(12-01-2016 12:18 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(12-01-2016 11:22 AM)Buho00 Wrote:  There's enough there to give me hope of a turn around season.

I don't generally disagree, but given how the season shapes up, I'm not sure the record will necessarily reflect that. We were 2 scores away from 2 more wins... but to bad teams.

Meaning we can win only 4-5 next year, but still move from #120 to #80... which would be a dramatic improvement. Winning 6 is going to be tough. Not impossible, but tough. A lot depends on whom we get in the crossovers. There will once again be 2-3 teams ranked north of 110 in our division next season... and then 2-3 ranked better than 80.

rankings aren't just about opinions anymore like they were in the 80's and 90's. They are sophisticated computer models. They may not reflect your potential, but they generally reflect what has shown up on game day (for whatever reasons).

??? A 5-7 record in CUSA is unlikely to get us inside the Top 90. Quite honestly, 6 - 6 will barely get us out of the lowest quartile, and with DB as our coach, I don't think 6-6 is achievable with our schedule and returning talent.
12-01-2016 12:25 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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RE: Looking Ahead to 2017 Football Season
(12-01-2016 12:25 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-01-2016 12:18 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(12-01-2016 11:22 AM)Buho00 Wrote:  There's enough there to give me hope of a turn around season.

I don't generally disagree, but given how the season shapes up, I'm not sure the record will necessarily reflect that. We were 2 scores away from 2 more wins... but to bad teams.

Meaning we can win only 4-5 next year, but still move from #120 to #80... which would be a dramatic improvement. Winning 6 is going to be tough. Not impossible, but tough. A lot depends on whom we get in the crossovers. There will once again be 2-3 teams ranked north of 110 in our division next season... and then 2-3 ranked better than 80.

rankings aren't just about opinions anymore like they were in the 80's and 90's. They are sophisticated computer models. They may not reflect your potential, but they generally reflect what has shown up on game day (for whatever reasons).

??? A 5-7 record in CUSA is unlikely to get us inside the Top 90. Quite honestly, 6 - 6 will barely get us out of the lowest quartile, and with DB as our coach, I don't think 6-6 is achievable with our schedule and returning talent.

I said 'could' Walt... and you said 'unlikely'. Those don't mean materially different things.

My point was that we could have won 5 games this year and still been worse than 110. Next year will be much the same. It all boils down to how good the 'worst' teams on our schedule are.

We're talking about a turn-around... and I'm saying I'm more interested in the ranking than the w's and l's. If we go from 120-80 winning 5, that will be somewhat of a turn-around. Not what we're looking for still, but at least a turn-around. If we win 5 but stay at 110 or worse, that won't be a turn-around in my mind.

My GUESS is that it will take a top 70 team to win 6... but again, that depends on things we don't yet know.
12-01-2016 01:27 PM
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