The strength of schedule argument is bunk. If it were the case, then why isn't Navy already ranked ahead of WMU, since they've already played a tougher schedule?

(11-30-2016 07:16 AM)uakronkid Wrote:  The strength of schedule argument is bunk. If it were the case, then why isn't Navy already ranked ahead of WMU, since they've already played a tougher schedule?

The SOS argument is not bunk. The CFP committee uses it for other conferences too, which is why 3 B10 teams that have 2 losses are right on the heels of one loss Clemson and Washington in the CFP standings.

I don't see how anyone is shocked by at how close Navy has drawn to WMU considering that one loss Boise State and two loss Houston had passed WMU just in the last few weeks.

The Midshipmen are more than deserving of the slot. Probably looking at Navy/USC which is a much better matchup than USC/WMU. That could get ugly fast.

(11-30-2016 12:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 12:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 12:34 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 12:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 12:17 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  The only way you send OSU a message for not winning a conference is to drop them at 4, any other slot and they play in Phoenix which isn't much of a home field for anybody else.

The only 'message' dropping anyone to 4 would send is "HOORAY, We Made the Playoffs !!!".

Because it doesn't matter where in the top 4 you are, so long as you are in the top 4. That's the whole ball game.

yeah right. You really think anyone would want to see Alabama. F that.

If it was a 32 team event, then sure, seeding would matter and you'd want Alabama on the other side of the draw.

But this is 4 teams. If you don't see someone this game, you have to see them next.

Nobody has nor will ever whine about being the 4th seed.

whatever. Sure they won't say it, but you better believe they would be thinking it. Do I want to see Alabama in Atlanta or Clemson in Arizona. a HUGE difference. Any one with a scintilla of a brain would say Clemson in Arizona. So you better believe that it matters. No matter what you think.

You're not making sense. If it was playing Clemson vs playing the New England Patriots, you might have a point, but probably not even then, because you'd still have to play the Patriots in the final.

It's a 4 team event! Out of 128 teams! Obviously, the joy and happiness is with the four teams that get in, that's the entire ball game. Seeding means next to nothing.

Look at 2014: FSU was the only undefeated team, and they were seeded #3. Did anyone from FSU complain? Nope, just very happy to be in the playoffs. And then last year, Oklahoma fell from #3 to #4 in the last rankings. Did they complain? Hell no! Just happy to be in the top 4. If those two didn't complain, nobody ever will.

And for the obvious reason that there's zero to complain about.

(11-30-2016 02:06 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:50 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:38 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  If Navy beats Temple and blows out Army, they're in.

Nope. WMU will need to lose for Navy to get the Access slot.

Yes, the Army game is completely irrelevant. Why would the committee care if Navy beat a bad Army team for the 15th straight time?

Right now Navy is behind WMU by just 2 slots with the opportunity to add on 2 more wins while WMU can just get one more. WMU will have played just 3 teams with a winning record. Navy will have played more than twice that many. That bad Army team is 6-5, making them better than most of WMU's schedule.

This looks to me like a pair of bubble teams in the tournament. The committee has set up the final poll in a way that either could be awarded that slot after the Army game. It could go either way. Frankly, I think the committee is hoping one of the 2 loses to make it easy for them.

The AP poll has WMU at 13, Navy at 20, Massey has WMU at 12, Navy at 25. The CFP has Navy at 19, WMU at 17.

IOW's, according to both the AP and Massey, WMU should be clearly ahead of Navy, no real contest there. But the CFP has them much closer.

So yes, whatever method the CFP is using to rank them (a) is relatively favorable to Navy and unfavorable to WMU, and (b) shouldn't be, given where the "best" of other human voters and the computers say they should be.

(11-30-2016 07:42 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 07:16 AM)uakronkid Wrote:  The strength of schedule argument is bunk. If it were the case, then why isn't Navy already ranked ahead of WMU, since they've already played a tougher schedule?

The SOS argument is not bunk. The CFP committee uses it for other conferences too, which is why 3 B10 teams that have 2 losses are right on the heels of one loss Clemson and Washington in the CFP standings.

I don't see how anyone is shocked by at how close Navy has drawn to WMU considering that one loss Boise State and two loss Houston had passed WMU just in the last few weeks.

SOS is absolutely not bunk, it has to play a strong role in any rational system of ranking teams.

The problem here is that SOS can be defined in many ways, some of them make sense and others don't.

The CFP seems to be using a definition that doesn't make much sense, namely, something along the lines of "who were the best teams you beat"? By that metric, Houston has played a very strong schedule, what with wins over UL and OK. But according to Sagarin and all the computers, their schedule has been mediocre, around #75 right now.

So the problem here, and it clearly is benefiting Navy, is with how the CFP is defining SOS. It seems to be defining it in a way that is skewed towards just looking at the best teams you played, and even more specifically, beat, rather than the totality of the schedule, which is the only rational way to define SOS.

(11-29-2016 07:54 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:50 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:38 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  If Navy beats Temple and blows out Army, they're in.

Nope. WMU will need to lose for Navy to get the Access slot.

Yes, the Army game is completely irrelevant. Why would the committee care if Navy beat a bad Army team for the 15th straight time?

The committee just announced they would wait til after Army-Navy to pick slot if both WMU and Navy win this weekend.

This quote alone tells you WMU doesn't control its destiny, any other conclusion is denial, questionable intelligence, or trolling. If it did they wouldn't wait for the Army/Navy game, they wouldn't even need to mention it.

(11-29-2016 07:52 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:50 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:38 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  If Navy beats Temple and blows out Army, they're in.

Nope. WMU will need to lose for Navy to get the Access slot.

Nope

Uh..Yes. WMU will have to lose.

(11-30-2016 09:24 AM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:52 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:50 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:38 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  If Navy beats Temple and blows out Army, they're in.

Nope. WMU will need to lose for Navy to get the Access slot.

Nope

Uh..Yes. WMU will have to lose.

keep telling yourself that.

(11-30-2016 09:45 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 09:24 AM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:52 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:50 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:38 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  If Navy beats Temple and blows out Army, they're in.

Nope. WMU will need to lose for Navy to get the Access slot.

Nope

Uh..Yes. WMU will have to lose.

keep telling yourself that.

You can can keep telling yourself otherwise

(11-30-2016 11:17 AM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 09:45 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 09:24 AM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:52 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:50 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  Nope. WMU will need to lose for Navy to get the Access slot.

Nope

Uh..Yes. WMU will have to lose.

keep telling yourself that.

You can can keep telling yourself otherwise

then tell me why the committee said if both win that they will be waiting for the Navy/Army game? If it was WMU's with a win no matter what, why would they wait?

(11-30-2016 11:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 11:17 AM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 09:45 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 09:24 AM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:52 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  Nope

Uh..Yes. WMU will have to lose.

keep telling yourself that.

You can can keep telling yourself otherwise

then tell me why the committee said if both win that they will be waiting for the Navy/Army game? If it was WMU's with a win no matter what, why would they wait?

It is NOT in the committee's best interest to just crown WMU the G5 rep. Would not be fair to Navy prior to a Championship Game. They are not going to publicly say that. They are doing the same song and dance to Penn State/Wisconsin. Navy is a VERY good football team, but two losses is two losses. Don't forget if Western wins, they will now have a Conference Championship, be undefeated and have beaten an 8-4 team at the time.

(11-30-2016 11:42 AM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 11:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 11:17 AM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 09:45 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 09:24 AM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  Uh..Yes. WMU will have to lose.

keep telling yourself that.

You can can keep telling yourself otherwise

then tell me why the committee said if both win that they will be waiting for the Navy/Army game? If it was WMU's with a win no matter what, why would they wait?

It is NOT in the committee's best interest to just crown WMU the G5 rep. Would not be fair to Navy prior to a Championship Game. They are not going to publicly say that. They are doing the same song and dance to Penn State/Wisconsin. Navy is a VERY good football team, but two losses is two losses. Don't forget if Western wins, they will now have a Conference Championship, be undefeated and have beaten an 8-4 team at the time.

Except that 2 losses to the committee with a much tougher schedule is pretty close to the same as 0 losses with a bad schedule.

Also, like I said, why would they announce yesterday that they will be waiting if both win. They could have just said nothing, and then on Sunday said that it was WMU's spot period if WMU won.

(11-29-2016 07:38 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  If Navy beats Temple and blows out Army, they're in.

Only if WMU loses, or maybe wins like in OT.

(11-30-2016 12:10 PM)IAH Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:38 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  If Navy beats Temple and blows out Army, they're in.

Only if WMU loses, or maybe wins like in OT.

With how close it is, I don't think WMU has to lose for Navy to get it. WMU is going to have to be very impressive vs Toledo for them to get it. It's no automatic.

As I said in the other thread on this subject --- since this one has now obviously focused on WMU vs Navy for the Access slot:


Obviously a lot of discussion since last night, when it came out that 1) Navy is now within striking range of WMU, and 2) the committee will wait until the Navy Army game in certain scenarios.

But the fact that they've announced the possibility of waiting is definitive proof that the committee wants to get Navy in there. Otherwise, if there was no hope, they wouldn't have announced that.


Sorry WMU fans.

If it helps you feel better, just think if it like this: had you played an AAC schedule, you wouldn't be undefeated.

(11-29-2016 08:45 PM)bullet Wrote:  Does Michigan get in ahead of the Big 10 conference champ?

Not a chance in ____.

Two non-champs in the CFP????? Ain't never gonna happen.

(11-30-2016 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-30-2016 02:06 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:50 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(11-29-2016 07:38 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  If Navy beats Temple and blows out Army, they're in.

Nope. WMU will need to lose for Navy to get the Access slot.

Yes, the Army game is completely irrelevant. Why would the committee care if Navy beat a bad Army team for the 15th straight time?

Right now Navy is behind WMU by just 2 slots with the opportunity to add on 2 more wins while WMU can just get one more. WMU will have played just 3 teams with a winning record. Navy will have played more than twice that many. That bad Army team is 6-5, making them better than most of WMU's schedule.

This looks to me like a pair of bubble teams in the tournament. The committee has set up the final poll in a way that either could be awarded that slot after the Army game. It could go either way. Frankly, I think the committee is hoping one of the 2 loses to make it easy for them.

The AP poll has WMU at 13, Navy at 20, Massey has WMU at 12, Navy at 25. The CFP has Navy at 19, WMU at 17.

IOW's, according to both the AP and Massey, WMU should be clearly ahead of Navy, no real contest there. But the CFP has them much closer.

So yes, whatever method the CFP is using to rank them (a) is relatively favorable to Navy and unfavorable to WMU, and (b) shouldn't be, given where the "best" of other human voters and the computers say they should be.

This article indicates the thier sources are saying the committee intends to delay the last poll if both WMU and Navy win this weekend. Thats a pretty clear signal that the committee intends to place Navy in front of WMU if they both win---but the committee will need a Navy win over Army to lock that in.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...owl-system

the thing that I think is the biggest load of crap is them saying they couldn't place the APR teams until the 10th. Of course they could. Army is bowling regardless.

Could also be due to the fact that Army is a nontrivial challenge, this year. Or so it would appear.