The Seahawks are 5-1, and have jumped to No. 68 in the Kenpom rankings. http://www.kenpom.com

(11-28-2016 10:34 AM)surfsalot Wrote:  The Seahawks are 5-1, and have jumped to No. 68 in the Kenpom rankings. http://www.kenpom.com

That's solid. ETSU is # 90 on that list and should continue to climb.

As for some future opponents: Clemson is # 32, Saint Bonaventure is # 67, W&M is # 95, Charleston is # 111, Elon is # 122, and Towson is # 146. Not bad. Our schedule isn't nearly as weak as we thought it would be in the preseason.

(11-28-2016 11:07 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  

(11-28-2016 10:34 AM)surfsalot Wrote:  The Seahawks are 5-1, and have jumped to No. 68 in the Kenpom rankings. http://www.kenpom.com

Our schedule isn't nearly as weak as we thought it would be in the preseason.

it's early.....

(11-28-2016 11:26 AM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  it's early.....

Of course, but Clemson, ETSU, MTSU, St. Bonaventure, and at least a few CAA squads are passing both the eye test AND the numbers test so far. That's at least a few more quality games than folks on here were saying this schedule would yield.

Side note: Toledo is # 141 and Evansville is # 150. Not bad.

(11-28-2016 11:57 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  

(11-28-2016 11:26 AM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  it's early.....

Of course, but Clemson, ETSU, MTSU, St. Bonaventure, and at least a few CAA squads are passing both the eye test AND the numbers test so far. That's at least a few more quality games than folks on here were saying this schedule would yield.

Side note: Toledo is # 141 and Evansville is # 150. Not bad.

definitely not thus far. Be interested to see what happens to those numbers once they get into conf play.

(11-28-2016 12:54 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  definitely not thus far. Be interested to see what happens to those numbers once they get into conf play.

For sure. Especially ETSU's. The SoCon seems stronger than it has been in quite a while, with Chattanooga presenting a budding basketball rivalry for the Bucs (if they weren't rivals already).

Chatt is our strongest rivalry. Virtually always has been, likely always will be. Even moreso than nearby App. St. It goes WAY back, not surprisingly. Even well before some bad blood when a Chatt player (Benny Green) spit on (and/or slapped) a female ETSU cheerleader (or two) when leaving the court after a (Chatt) loss back in 1989, which was the first year of our 4 straight SoCon championships. Here is one account, with the "cheerleaders-rushing-the-Chattanooga-dressing-room" incident way overblown. Yes, they did that, but nothing much came of it.

Not many years later, after some Mocs were arrested in Chattanooga for shoplifting, a LARGE number of ETSU fans waved JC Penney bags at them as they were introduced when they came to Johnson City for their next game. Pretty funny and well done.

The "Benny Green incident"

For many decades, more times than not, it has been UTC and ETSU holding the top 2 spots in the conference (even going back to the '60s and '70s when both were in the Ohio Valley Conference although with less dominance then because of Western KY), with both teams having strong teams more times than not. There *is* respect, but it's a fairly bitter rivalry, too.

http://www.kenpom.com/ Up 1 to 67 this week.

Still climbing. http://www.kenpom.com/ Up to #60 this week.

Still climbing. http://www.kenpom.com/ Up to #56 this week.

Warren Nolan predictions as of 12-18-2016. Sign me up!

Record 27 - 2
Conf Record 17 - 1

RPI 34
SOS 313

That would be awesome. But SOS of 313? Dang. Our SOS is 55 currently and the CAA is ranked the # 12 conference by Warren Nolan. How the heck would we end up with a SOS that bad?

They must be predicting the CAA to be REALLY bad.

That's not correct. Here's a link and you can figure it out. You can give 1/3 weight ( roughly 1/3 of the season is done-9 D1 games) to a SOS about 55 and see that the CAA foes have an average RPI of 184.55. Simply add 184.6+184.6+55 and divide by 3. That would leave a SOS of 141. The rest of the OOC won't appreciably affect the average RPI CAA foe value at this point.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2017/s...Wilmington

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2017/c...l-Athletic

That doesn't take into account the fact that a team's OOC opponents could do better or worse in conference games than in OOC games. In other words, your OOC SOS can change during conference play. Another way to estimate your final SOS is to look at opponents' winning percentage. The SOS also includes opponents' opponents' winning percentage, but I'm not going to spend time on that. UNCW's opponents are 47-32 (.595) excluding their games against UNCW. Counting the two remaining OOC opponents once and the nine CAA opponents twice each, UNCW's remaining opponents are 97-96 (.503). Adding 47-32 and 97-96 makes 144-128 (.529) which is exactly 9/17ths. As of now a .529 SOS would put a team in 115th. Regardless of what method you use, I think it's safe to assume your SOS will be much better than 313th. When the CAA was an unusually bad 19th in the 2014-2015 Conference RPI, Towson had the worst SOS in the CAA in 304th.

Doesn't matter. Beating down Campbell and Radford, and averaging 100 pts in our last four games... We won't get a vote in the T-25. As a matter of fact, we'll probably be the only team in the history of the polls to get a negative vote. At least one voter will write down, "absolutely did not vote for UNCW or UNC-Wilmington".

And Jay Bilas will mention us in another article, probably referencing our "almost" last year in the tourney to Duke, and maybe even find a way to reference Maryland.

(12-18-2016 08:15 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Warren Nolan predictions as of 12-18-2016. Sign me up!

Record 27 - 2
Conf Record 17 - 1

RPI 34
SOS 313

I think I'm officially rooting for this to happen, but you guys lose in the championship game. Best way to get two teams in, nothing personal

(12-19-2016 09:00 AM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  Doesn't matter. Beating down Campbell and Radford, and averaging 100 pts in our last four games... We won't get a vote in the T-25. As a matter of fact, we'll probably be the only team in the history of the polls to get a negative vote. At least one voter will write down, "absolutely did not vote for UNCW or UNC-Wilmington".

And Jay Bilas will mention us in another article, probably referencing our "almost" last year in the tourney to Duke, and maybe even find a way to reference Maryland.

All of this will be 100 % accurate.

(12-18-2016 08:15 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Warren Nolan predictions as of 12-18-2016. Sign me up!

Record 27 - 2
Conf Record 17 - 1

RPI 34
SOS 313

This scenario has us beating Clemson.

(12-19-2016 10:12 AM)bricksnivy Wrote:  

(12-18-2016 08:15 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Warren Nolan predictions as of 12-18-2016. Sign me up!

Record 27 - 2
Conf Record 17 - 1

RPI 34
SOS 313

This scenario has us beating Clemson.

I still just can't get to the point where our SOS hits that low, especially when D2's don't typically factor into this equation.