Bearcat2012
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RE: Around the NCAA men's basketball
ESPN Bubble Watch 2/28/17
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
SMU took longer to lock in than its actual performance on the court should have allowed. Which is to say: This team is so much better than its nitty-gritty sheet. The Mustangs are top-20 in adjusted efficiency margin and BPI; they have the American's most potent offense; they trail only Cincinnati on the defensive end. Semi Ojeleye, who might be the most slept-on star in college hoops, shoots 41.1 percent from 3-point territory, averages 18.2 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists for one of the slowest teams in the country. (Sophomore guard Shake Milton is also quietly having a huge season.) The Mustangs' early losses to Michigan, USC and Boise State, lack of eye-popping wins, and the dearth of elite competition in the American, allowed them to skate by unnoticed for months. After 20 wins in 21 games, though, there's no chance they'll miss the tournament. Lock 'em in -- and pray they don't show up in your favorite team's path through the bracket.
Houston [20-8 (11-5), RPI: 54, SOS: 73] After Sunday's super-tight 72-71 win at Memphis, Houston is still in the mix, and it might be an interesting test case. It will be fascinating to see how the committee weighs a team like the Cougars, who are 20-8 overall and 11-5 in a mediocre American, versus a team like, say, Vanderbilt, which could end the season 16-15 overall and 9-9 in the SEC with wins over Iowa State, South Carolina, and Florida (in Gainesville). And, for Houston, determinative.
Rhode Island [19-9 (11-5), RPI: 42, SOS: 42] The Rhode Island Rams were the victors over the VCU Rams, which was definitely a boost to the former's odds of sneaking into the NCAA tournament. How much of a boost? As we wrote last week, beating VCU doesn't quite carry big-win cachet: Even before the loss, VCU was down in the No. 8-9-10 seed range, not all that far off the bubble itself. The victory at least adds a second top-50 win to pair alongside a Nov. 19 neutral-court win over Cincinnati. But with just four top-100 wins, and just Saint Joe's and Davidson remaining on the regular-season schedule, it will likely take a major push in the A-10 tournament for Rhode Island to really make a go of it. Saturday's win was really just a start.
Xavier [18-11 (8-8), RPI: 27, SOS: 10] In a vacuum, losing at home to Butler, even by a nonflattering margin, is not a big deal. In a vacuum, losing at home to Villanova is also not a big deal. Losing on the road at any one of Providence, Marquette or Seton Hall, in isolation, needs not be a big deal. The problem for Xavier is that the above losses are not in isolation or in a vacuum, but rather the components of a five-game losing streak since Feb. 11. Worse, the losing has largely coincided with the loss of guard Edmond Sumner, who accounted for 24.5 percent of the Musketeers' possessions before tearing his ACL. Throw in Trevon Bluiett's nagging injuries along the way, and it's clear that Chris Mack's team isn't playing anywhere near the level it was early in the season -- and the committee isn't shy about evaluating a team differently if its play falters after a significant injury. (Word to Robbie Hummel and Purdue.) In any case, the Musketeers should be buoyed somewhat by strong RPI and SOS numbers, but they need to avoid losses in their last two Big East games (versus Marquette, at DePaul) to avoid having some work to do in the Big East tourney.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2017 10:14 AM by Bearcat2012.)
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Around the NCAA men's basketball
