With Houston's beat down of Louisville last night Oklahoma's credibility rose considerably.
Are the Sooners back in the playoff hunt?

(11-18-2016 08:12 AM)XLance Wrote:  With Houston's beat down of Louisville last night Oklahoma's credibility rose considerably.
Are the Sooners back in the playoff hunt?

Hard to see how. I mean, for starters, if Houston wins out, how can you put Oklahoma in the playoffs over Houston?

And Houston isn't getting anywhere near the playoffs.

The UH win over Louisville defenitely helps OU- their chances went from 14% to 21% according to 538. Still need several more things to happen. Need Ohio State to win the Big 10 or possibly Michigan. And need one of Washington or Clemson to lose or both if Penn St or Wiscy wins the Big 10. If WVU or OkSt win out their chances also improved but may need a little more help, especially OkSt.

(11-18-2016 08:22 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The UH win over Louisville defenitely helps OU- their chances went from 14% to 21% according to 538. Still need several more things to happen. Need Ohio State to win the Big 10 or possibly Michigan. And need one of Washington or Clemson to lose or both if Penn St or Wiscy wins the Big 10. If WVU or OkSt win out their chances also improved but may need a little more help, especially OkSt.

So ... how do they get into the playoffs past Houston?

(11-18-2016 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:22 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The UH win over Louisville defenitely helps OU- their chances went from 14% to 21% according to 538. Still need several more things to happen. Need Ohio State to win the Big 10 or possibly Michigan. And need one of Washington or Clemson to lose or both if Penn St or Wiscy wins the Big 10. If WVU or OkSt win out their chances also improved but may need a little more help, especially OkSt.

So ... how do they get into the playoffs past Houston?

Houston will not be in the hunt. They won't win their conference and have a couple bad losses on their resume- weren't even ranked last week. If they win out their ceiling is in the 10 range I'm guessing.

It's almost impossible for OU to get in. Houston would be a dilemma for the committee, because the Big 12 was not that good this year and Houston would have the H2H. But Houston winning out does help OU more than it hurts them.

I think they need a Wisconsin/PSU upset before the B1G title game with OSU winning the Big 10 outright. Clemson and Washington need two losses as well. Then you may see a jump.

(11-18-2016 08:39 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:22 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The UH win over Louisville defenitely helps OU- their chances went from 14% to 21% according to 538. Still need several more things to happen. Need Ohio State to win the Big 10 or possibly Michigan. And need one of Washington or Clemson to lose or both if Penn St or Wiscy wins the Big 10. If WVU or OkSt win out their chances also improved but may need a little more help, especially OkSt.

So ... how do they get into the playoffs past Houston?

Houston will not be in the hunt. They won't win their conference and have a couple bad losses on their resume- weren't even ranked last week. If they win out their ceiling is in the 10 range I'm guessing.

But ... they clobbered Oklahoma. That's my point: It's going to be tough to build a case for Oklahoma when (a) Houston clobbered them, and (b) Houston clearly will have more big wins than Oklahoma has. Houston clearly trumps Oklahoma.

And like you say, Houston won't be in the hunt.

They're only back in the hunt until Saturday night.....

You can't look at H2H's in college football as the end all be all. Yes, the fact that the game is on a neutral field helps. But you have to factor in injuries and the like. A win in September has less value than a win like last night. You have to look at scheduling and injuries before you look at the H2H result. It's not an NFL style tie breaker here nor should it be.

lets play along....

Michigan beats Ohio St, Wisconsin. both of those are out vs Oklahoma. Yeah I think even Ohio St.
Washington loses to Wash St, knocked out. P12 title game is Wash St vs USC. Winner out vs Oklahoma

so right there you have Alabama, Michigan, and Clemson in.

the contenders for the 4th slot are Ohio St, Oklahoma, Penn St. I could see Oklahoma getting it. Esp. since they would have shot last day of the season to make a last second impression.

And I'll throw a screwball at you. Oklahoma St. What if they beat Oklahoma and are sitting at 10-2? Big 12 champs. With a controversial loss in the mix for their 2.

(11-18-2016 08:12 AM)XLance Wrote:  With Houston's beat down of Louisville last night Oklahoma's credibility rose considerably.
Are the Sooners back in the playoff hunt?

They were never out. Just needed a lot of help. Still need at least one more two loss conference champ. AND to beat WVU and Oklahoma St.

(11-18-2016 08:39 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:22 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The UH win over Louisville defenitely helps OU- their chances went from 14% to 21% according to 538. Still need several more things to happen. Need Ohio State to win the Big 10 or possibly Michigan. And need one of Washington or Clemson to lose or both if Penn St or Wiscy wins the Big 10. If WVU or OkSt win out their chances also improved but may need a little more help, especially OkSt.

So ... how do they get into the playoffs past Houston?

Houston will not be in the hunt. They won't win their conference and have a couple bad losses on their resume- weren't even ranked last week. If they win out their ceiling is in the 10 range I'm guessing.

They compare in groups of 3 and 6. Houston won't be in the same group.

(11-18-2016 08:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:39 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:22 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The UH win over Louisville defenitely helps OU- their chances went from 14% to 21% according to 538. Still need several more things to happen. Need Ohio State to win the Big 10 or possibly Michigan. And need one of Washington or Clemson to lose or both if Penn St or Wiscy wins the Big 10. If WVU or OkSt win out their chances also improved but may need a little more help, especially OkSt.

So ... how do they get into the playoffs past Houston?

Houston will not be in the hunt. They won't win their conference and have a couple bad losses on their resume- weren't even ranked last week. If they win out their ceiling is in the 10 range I'm guessing.

But ... they clobbered Oklahoma. That's my point: It's going to be tough to build a case for Oklahoma when (a) Houston clobbered them, and (b) Houston clearly will have more big wins than Oklahoma has. Houston clearly trumps Oklahoma.

And like you say, Houston won't be in the hunt.

Head to head only matters if teams are being directly compared for a spot(s). Houston will jump into the ranking for sure this week, but how high? I'm guessing 15 or so? Does that sound reasonable? The committee looks at teams in groups of 6 and ranks those 6. So if OU wins and is ranked 6ish, the committee won't ever even have them together on the screen to directly compare.

any shot Houston gets high enough to be in the at large slot for the Cotton?

(11-18-2016 09:19 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:39 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:22 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The UH win over Louisville defenitely helps OU- their chances went from 14% to 21% according to 538. Still need several more things to happen. Need Ohio State to win the Big 10 or possibly Michigan. And need one of Washington or Clemson to lose or both if Penn St or Wiscy wins the Big 10. If WVU or OkSt win out their chances also improved but may need a little more help, especially OkSt.

So ... how do they get into the playoffs past Houston?

Houston will not be in the hunt. They won't win their conference and have a couple bad losses on their resume- weren't even ranked last week. If they win out their ceiling is in the 10 range I'm guessing.

But ... they clobbered Oklahoma. That's my point: It's going to be tough to build a case for Oklahoma when (a) Houston clobbered them, and (b) Houston clearly will have more big wins than Oklahoma has. Houston clearly trumps Oklahoma.

And like you say, Houston won't be in the hunt.

Head to head only matters if teams are being directly compared for a spot(s). Houston will jump into the ranking for sure this week, but how high? I'm guessing 15 or so? Does that sound reasonable? The committee looks at teams in groups of 6 and ranks those 6. So if OU wins and is ranked 6ish, the committee won't ever even have them together on the screen to directly compare.

Probably around 15. Certainly no better than 12. That SMU loss really hurt them. They could be in serious contention for one of the wild card slots even with the Navy loss and being a non-champ. We could have the non-champ of the AAC with wins over the champs of the Big 12 and ACC (OU leads Big 12, UL wins ACC with Clemson loss this week and ccg win).

(11-18-2016 09:16 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:12 AM)XLance Wrote:  With Houston's beat down of Louisville last night Oklahoma's credibility rose considerably.
Are the Sooners back in the playoff hunt?

They were never out. Just needed a lot of help. Still need at least one more two loss conference champ. AND to beat WVU and Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma needs more than that. If Big Ten finishes with Wisconsin or Penn St as champs- and Ohio St at 11-1, Oklahoma is pretty close to done. They would need either Clemson to lose, or Pac 12 champion to be USC or Washington St. Right now- Clemson with a 74.6% chance of winning out- so 25.4% chance of losing. USC/WSU's chance at winning P12 right now is 34.4% chance. So 50/50 chance one of those 2 things happens.

(11-18-2016 09:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 09:16 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:12 AM)XLance Wrote:  With Houston's beat down of Louisville last night Oklahoma's credibility rose considerably.
Are the Sooners back in the playoff hunt?

They were never out. Just needed a lot of help. Still need at least one more two loss conference champ. AND to beat WVU and Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma needs more than that. If Big Ten finishes with Wisconsin or Penn St as champs- and Ohio St at 11-1, Oklahoma is pretty close to done. They would need either Clemson to lose, or Pac 12 champion to be USC or Washington St. Right now- Clemson with a 74.6% chance of winning out- so 25.4% chance of losing. USC/WSU's chance at winning P12 right now is 34.4% chance. So 50/50 chance one of those 2 things happens.

OU at 10-2 likely beats out a 2 loss Pac 12 or ACC champ who will have lost games recently. An 11-1 Ohio St. is the only non-champ who could threaten to bump a conference champion. Very good chance we have a 2 loss conference champ in the playoffs this year.

(11-18-2016 09:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 09:16 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:12 AM)XLance Wrote:  With Houston's beat down of Louisville last night Oklahoma's credibility rose considerably.
Are the Sooners back in the playoff hunt?

They were never out. Just needed a lot of help. Still need at least one more two loss conference champ. AND to beat WVU and Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma needs more than that. If Big Ten finishes with Wisconsin or Penn St as champs- and Ohio St at 11-1, Oklahoma is pretty close to done. They would need either Clemson to lose, or Pac 12 champion to be USC or Washington St. Right now- Clemson with a 74.6% chance of winning out- so 25.4% chance of losing. USC/WSU's chance at winning P12 right now is 34.4% chance. So 50/50 chance one of those 2 things happens.

Yeah, they need two of three things to happen (in addition to winning out, although WVU I think is in basically the same boat, so the same applies to them; OkSt might need a little more)

1. Ohio St or Mich to win the Big 10
2. PAC-12 champ with 2+ losses
3. ACC champ with 2+ losses

ESPN FPI has 1 at 44% chance, 2 at 64% chance, 3 at 25% chance. If both 2 and 3 happen, I think OU/WVU might be in regardless of the Big 10. 538 puts OU's chances at 21%, but 53% if they win out. I think that is a bit high, but chances are definitely improving.

(11-18-2016 09:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  any shot Houston gets high enough to be in the at large slot for the Cotton?

Should, they have the best G5 resume IMO.......

(11-18-2016 09:45 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 09:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 09:16 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-18-2016 08:12 AM)XLance Wrote:  With Houston's beat down of Louisville last night Oklahoma's credibility rose considerably.
Are the Sooners back in the playoff hunt?

They were never out. Just needed a lot of help. Still need at least one more two loss conference champ. AND to beat WVU and Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma needs more than that. If Big Ten finishes with Wisconsin or Penn St as champs- and Ohio St at 11-1, Oklahoma is pretty close to done. They would need either Clemson to lose, or Pac 12 champion to be USC or Washington St. Right now- Clemson with a 74.6% chance of winning out- so 25.4% chance of losing. USC/WSU's chance at winning P12 right now is 34.4% chance. So 50/50 chance one of those 2 things happens.

OU at 10-2 likely beats out a 2 loss Pac 12 or ACC champ who will have lost games recently. An 11-1 Ohio St. is the only non-champ who could threaten to bump a conference champion. Very good chance we have a 2 loss conference champ in the playoffs this year.

Um, no. Sorry but if Colorado or Utah wins the Pac 12 over 11-1 Washington, they would get in before Oklahoma.

The ONLY reason why there would be a 2 loss conference champ in the playoffs is 11-2 Wisconsin or Penn St. They're by far the only one with a great chance.