Has the CFP committee rankings ever been this up in the air?

I'm just glad that the 6 day option gods saw fit to put Wake/Clemson at 7 pm. We'll be doing the "2 games in 1 day" thing with NC State/Miami at 12:30, then heading west in time to get some tailgating in before Wake/Clemson.

I don't believe I have ever seen a team LOSE & not drop in the rankings. How does Michigan lose to Iowa & remain 3rd? Doesn't losing matter anymore? So basically we had 3 of the committees top 4 teams lose & only 1 drop out. Clemson at 4 makes sense but Michigan? Other teams that lost dropped a minimum of 4 spots. I'm not sure if I agree with this new methodology.

(11-16-2016 01:20 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  I don't believe I have ever seen a team LOSE & not drop in the rankings. How does Michigan lose to Iowa & remain 3rd? Doesn't losing matter anymore? So basically we had 3 of the committees top 4 teams lose & only 1 drop out. Clemson at 4 makes sense but Michigan? Other teams that lost dropped a minimum of 4 spots. I'm not sure if I agree with this new methodology.

It's because this is a committee based system. They didn't see anyone worthy of jumping them. This is the SOS argument. Penn State, Wisconsin, and Washington all pose a threat to pass Louisville pending what happens with the rest of the season and in the CCGs. Still need a little chaos. The SEC isn't getting 2 in at this point. For me the next best thing is for other "southern schools" to get in. (Don't judge me northerners ) So I am at this point hoping Louisville can somehow get in. The ACC did you no favors with your schedule though and as mentioned in other articles Houston flaming out after starting so strong hurt, and Marshall who is typically a 9-10 win sometimes stronger school did you no favors either.

It was just a very bad year. Kentucky will be a bowl team and Houston will at worst case be a 8 win team. Those final 2 will help with the SOS no matter what. Still have to hope for some chaos though. Penn State, Wisconsin and Washington in my opinion all still pose a huge threat.

It IS ridiculous to drop Clemson (who lost to the team that beat Penn State), while not droppin Michigan... but it may work itself out in the end.

IMO, Michigan will lose again (to Ohio State), and Washington will lose to Washington State.

(11-16-2016 07:33 AM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(11-16-2016 01:20 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  I don't believe I have ever seen a team LOSE & not drop in the rankings. How does Michigan lose to Iowa & remain 3rd? Doesn't losing matter anymore? So basically we had 3 of the committees top 4 teams lose & only 1 drop out. Clemson at 4 makes sense but Michigan? Other teams that lost dropped a minimum of 4 spots. I'm not sure if I agree with this new methodology.

It's because this is a committee based system. They didn't see anyone worthy of jumping them. This is the SOS argument. Penn State, Wisconsin, and Washington all pose a threat to pass Louisville pending what happens with the rest of the season and in the CCGs. Still need a little chaos. The SEC isn't getting 2 in at this point. For me the next best thing is for other "southern schools" to get in. (Don't judge me northerners ) So I am at this point hoping Louisville can somehow get in. The ACC did you no favors with your schedule though and as mentioned in other articles Houston flaming out after starting so strong hurt, and Marshall who is typically a 9-10 win sometimes stronger school did you no favors either.

It was just a very bad year. Kentucky will be a bowl team and Houston will at worst case be a 8 win team. Those final 2 will help with the SOS no matter what. Still have to hope for some chaos though. Penn State, Wisconsin and Washington in my opinion all still pose a huge threat.

I agree that SOS is important but it isn't the only metric. I think "who did you lose to" is just as important as "who did you beat". This committee seems to be ignoring that. If you compare Michigan & Clemson resumes, how is Michigan ahead? That was only Michigans second road game & Clemson has the better wins & SOS. Why aren't they flipped? What about Houston? H2H they beat Oklahoma & aren't even in the top 25? By the committee own words they are a top 15-20 team. They have far too many inconsistencies this year. There are some schools ranked that shouldn't be & some teams that aren't ranked that should be given their own methodology. 7-3 Tennessee went from unranked to 19 after beating Kentucky, well Louisville get that bump if they beat UK?

As far as SOS & Louisville, the Cards had 3 preseason top 10 teams on their schedule. Duke also looked like a top 25 team before their injuries. Why punish Louisville or any other team for the teams on their schedule struggling & battling injuries? You can't make up your schedule as the season progresses. It's a key metric but not the end all be all that this committee is making it out to be.

(Note that Michigan SOS, according to ESPN, is only 4 spots better than Louisville's currently. Meanwhile Louisville SOR is 5th compared to Michigan 7th.)

(11-16-2016 08:13 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  It IS ridiculous to drop Clemson (who lost to the team that beat Penn State), while not droppin Michigan... but it may work itself out in the end.

IMO, Michigan will lose again (to Ohio State), and Washington will lose to Washington State.

Why is Washington St even ranked, they lost to an FCS team didn't they? Michigan just lost to a team that lost to an FCS team & yet they are 3? Since when are FCS considered quality teams?

It is a case of the committee rigging the system so that anyone but the ACC will put 2 in the playoff. There is no way a 2 L Wisky or Penn State (of all programs) get in over Louisville. Washington resume doesn't look that great either. Their best win was against Utah at Utah. Louisville manhandled a FSU team and barely lost to Clemson. Michigan should have dropped out of the top 4, especially since they may not have a starting QB. Didn't Penn State lose to Pitt? I understand they beat OSU but come on.

It's just the way it is. They were talking about it last night as soon as the rankings came out.

The Louisville doubters were quick to jump on Louisville losing to Wake in the 4th qtr. Close games against UVA and Duke. Getting 2 teams in doesn't represent conference strength so I have no clue why people are seemingly against the thought of the ACC getting 2 in.

There is definitely some biased in the arguments for all sides though.

It goes back to what I was saying. Yes Michigan lost to Iowa. Yes Washington State lost to an FCS team but no one is talking about Washington State to the playoffs. They are ranked because of what they have accomplished since.

I understand the sos argument and that scheduling is not a week by week deal. The biggest issue is that if you're not undefeated they will always be able to hold it against you. If you have played in close games they can hold it against you.

Like they were saying last night. Clemson was still #4 because they had beaten 3 top 25 committee ranked teams and had the head to head against Louisville.

It doesn't matter if Louisville has the same record the resume doesn't come close and the head to head is there.

Michigan has beaten #6 Wisconsin, # 10 Colorado, and #8 Penn State. How can anyone not see validation at this very moment? 3 top 10 teams...

Like I said I hope at this point Louisville does get in for my own selfish reasons but I can 100% see why the rankings are how they are.

1. Alabama several top 25 wins, only undefeated P5 team.
2. Ohio State- lost to # 8 Penn State, wins over several top 25 teams.
3.Michigan- lost to Iowa, but they have 3 top 10 wins.
4.Clemson- Lost to Pitt but has 3 top 25 wins.

Resume matters. This isn't the AP poll where a top 5 team will drop 10 places for losing on the road to top 10 team in a close game.

This system is designed the way it is for a reason. It's to reward teams that challenge themselves and win.

Louisville- lost the head to head at Clemson. 1 top 25 win.

I think the eye test is important, but Louisville has clearly benefited from that. Sitting at #5 with only 1 top 25 win is a win for you.

There are teams below you with better resumes and that is 100% eye test.

If more chaos ensues then Louisville has a chance.

Charlotte- Horrible
Marshall- even worse than Charlotte.
Kentucky- .500 SEC team will probably be 6-6.
Houston- lost to Navy and SMU with Louisville and @ Memphis still on the schedule.

Then the ACC schedule did you no favors.

Duke
UVA
Boston College
NC State
Syracuse

That is one of the worst schedules for any top P5 school. You may finish the season only playing 3-4 teams with a record above .500.

I hope it works out for you guys, but I am trying to be as realistic as possible.

The committee made it clear last night that they value that SOS when it comes to the top 4.

(11-16-2016 10:38 AM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  It's just the way it is. They were talking about it last night as soon as the rankings came out.

The Louisville doubters were quick to jump on Louisville losing to Wake in the 4th qtr. Close games against UVA and Duke. Getting 2 teams in doesn't represent conference strength so I have no clue why people are seemingly against the thought of the ACC getting 2 in.

There is definitely some biased in the arguments for all sides though.

It goes back to what I was saying. Yes Michigan lost to Iowa. Yes Washington State lost to an FCS team but no one is talking about Washington State to the playoffs. They are ranked because of what they have accomplished since.

I understand the sos argument and that scheduling is not a week by week deal. The biggest issue is that if you're not undefeated they will always be able to hold it against you. If you have played in close games they can hold it against you.

Like they were saying last night. Clemson was still #4 because they had beaten 3 top 25 committee ranked teams and had the head to head against Louisville.

It doesn't matter if Louisville has the same record the resume doesn't come close and the head to head is there.

Michigan has beaten #6 Wisconsin, # 10 Colorado, and #8 Penn State. How can anyone not see validation at this very moment? 3 top 10 teams...

Like I said I hope at this point Louisville does get in for my own selfish reasons but I can 100% see why the rankings are how they are.

1. Alabama several top 25 wins, only undefeated P5 team.
2. Ohio State- lost to # 8 Penn State, wins over several top 25 teams.
3.Michigan- lost to Iowa, but they have 3 top 10 wins.
4.Clemson- Lost to Pitt but has 3 top 25 wins.

Resume matters. This isn't the AP poll where a top 5 team will drop 10 places for losing on the road to top 10 team in a close game.

This system is designed the way it is for a reason. It's to reward teams that challenge themselves and win.

Louisville- lost the head to head at Clemson. 1 top 25 win.

I think the eye test is important, but Louisville has clearly benefited from that. Sitting at #5 with only 1 top 25 win is a win for you.

There are teams below you with better resumes and that is 100% eye test.

If more chaos ensues then Louisville has a chance.

Charlotte- Horrible
Marshall- even worse than Charlotte.
Kentucky- .500 SEC team will probably be 6-6.
Houston- lost to Navy and SMU with Louisville and @ Memphis still on the schedule.

Then the ACC schedule did you no favors.

Duke
UVA
Boston College
NC State
Syracuse

That is one of the worst schedules for any top P5 school. You may finish the season only playing 3-4 teams with a record above .500.

I hope it works out for you guys, but I am trying to be as realistic as possible.

The committee made it clear last night that they value that SOS when it comes to the top 4.

I was debating Michigan @ 3 & Clemson @ 4. Clemson has the better wins & SOS (23 compared to 55). Also look further down the rankings, there are teams there that shouldn't be. Take Pitt for instance, with the committee emphasizing who you beat & SOS then why aren't they ranked? They are 2-3 against ranked teams with wins over Clemson & Penn St. who else has played 5 top 25 teams? Why is Penn St ranked so high? They split with OSU/Michigan & lost to Pitt. 7-3 Tennessee goes from unranked to 19 after beating Kentucky? Houston is 8-2 with a win over #9 Oklahoma & yet unranked while Washington St is 8-2 with a loss to an FCS team. WV is 0-1 v the top 25 & yet ranked 14. The committee is showing bias, I don't know how else to explain their inconsistencies.

Close games? How about Wisconsin 23 v Georgia State 17. Or Ohio State 24 v Northwestern 20. Everyone has close games, injuries & bad games happen.

I agree with Alabama, Ohio St & Clemson being in the top 4 but Michigan should have dropped after LOSING to an average Iowa team. Losing should matter. Clemson & Washington each had better loses than Michigan this past weekend & they both dropped, why didn't Michigan?

(11-16-2016 10:38 AM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  It's just the way it is. They were talking about it last night as soon as the rankings came out.

The Louisville doubters were quick to jump on Louisville losing to Wake in the 4th qtr. Close games against UVA and Duke. Getting 2 teams in doesn't represent conference strength so I have no clue why people are seemingly against the thought of the ACC getting 2 in.

There is definitely some biased in the arguments for all sides though.

It goes back to what I was saying. Yes Michigan lost to Iowa. Yes Washington State lost to an FCS team but no one is talking about Washington State to the playoffs. They are ranked because of what they have accomplished since.

I understand the sos argument and that scheduling is not a week by week deal. The biggest issue is that if you're not undefeated they will always be able to hold it against you. If you have played in close games they can hold it against you.

Like they were saying last night. Clemson was still #4 because they had beaten 3 top 25 committee ranked teams and had the head to head against Louisville.

It doesn't matter if Louisville has the same record the resume doesn't come close and the head to head is there.

Michigan has beaten #6 Wisconsin, # 10 Colorado, and #8 Penn State. How can anyone not see validation at this very moment? 3 top 10 teams...

Like I said I hope at this point Louisville does get in for my own selfish reasons but I can 100% see why the rankings are how they are.

1. Alabama several top 25 wins, only undefeated P5 team.
2. Ohio State- lost to # 8 Penn State, wins over several top 25 teams.
3.Michigan- lost to Iowa, but they have 3 top 10 wins.
4.Clemson- Lost to Pitt but has 3 top 25 wins.

Resume matters. This isn't the AP poll where a top 5 team will drop 10 places for losing on the road to top 10 team in a close game.

This system is designed the way it is for a reason. It's to reward teams that challenge themselves and win.

Louisville- lost the head to head at Clemson. 1 top 25 win.

I think the eye test is important, but Louisville has clearly benefited from that. Sitting at #5 with only 1 top 25 win is a win for you.

There are teams below you with better resumes and that is 100% eye test.

If more chaos ensues then Louisville has a chance.

Charlotte- Horrible
Marshall- even worse than Charlotte.
Kentucky- .500 SEC team will probably be 6-6.
Houston- lost to Navy and SMU with Louisville and @ Memphis still on the schedule.

Then the ACC schedule did you no favors.

Duke
UVA
Boston College
NC State
Syracuse

That is one of the worst schedules for any top P5 school. You may finish the season only playing 3-4 teams with a record above .500.

I hope it works out for you guys, but I am trying to be as realistic as possible.

The committee made it clear last night that they value that SOS when it comes to the top 4.

What resume are you looking at when you reference Michigan because they did not beat #6 Wisconsin, # 10 Colorado, and #8 Penn State at the time they played those teams. Colorado and Penn State were unranked. Pitt had already beaten Penn State. Wisky was ranked at #8 when they played each other. So, Michigan's signature win is against an 8th ranked Wisky team, Now compare that to U of L's manhandling of FSU who was ranked #2 in the country with some first place votes. There is no comparison. Michigan was defeated by an unranked Iowa team on their 2nd away game of the year. U of L lost to the #3 team in the country at Clemson. There is no comparison. U of L should be ahead of not only Wisky, Penn State (who is living off of the OSU victory) and Washington, but also Michigan. Michigan haven't played anyone aside from Wisky. Let's not talk about these other teams like they were all world at the time they competed against each other.

Vegas odds to win the CFP championship. Updated November 16.


ODDS TO WIN 2016 COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (1/11/17)
Team Odds
Alabama 5/6
Ohio State 5/2
Clemson 8/1
Louisville 8/1
Michigan 15/1
Wisconsin 22/1
Oklahoma 26/1
Washington 28/1

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-foot...s/futures/

How does Louisville get the same odds as Clemson when they don't even have a clear path yet?

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(11-16-2016 12:52 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Alabama 5/6

If you can bet the field against Bama ... that's a pretty good bet.

(11-16-2016 01:29 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  How does Louisville get the same odds as Clemson when they don't even have a clear path yet?

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Looking at who the 4 best teams in the country are? I hear that Louisville would be a 2 TD favorite over Wisconsin & Penn State but I can't find that type of site. I've heard that Louisville would be a 7.5 point dog to Bama with only OSU having better odds but that's our local "insiders" comments but I don't know what site they get it from.

(11-16-2016 02:24 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(11-16-2016 01:29 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  How does Louisville get the same odds as Clemson when they don't even have a clear path yet?

Sent from my HTC Desire 626 using CSNbbs mobile app

Looking at who the 4 best teams in the country are? I hear that Louisville would be a 2 TD favorite over Wisconsin & Penn State but I can't find that type of site. I've heard that Louisville would be a 7.5 point dog to Bama with only OSU having better odds but that's our local "insiders" comments but I don't know what site they get it from.

I'm not doubting whether Louisville could win if given the chance, but rather, whether they will get that chance.

(11-16-2016 03:15 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(11-16-2016 02:24 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  

(11-16-2016 01:29 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  How does Louisville get the same odds as Clemson when they don't even have a clear path yet?

Sent from my HTC Desire 626 using CSNbbs mobile app

Looking at who the 4 best teams in the country are? I hear that Louisville would be a 2 TD favorite over Wisconsin & Penn State but I can't find that type of site. I've heard that Louisville would be a 7.5 point dog to Bama with only OSU having better odds but that's our local "insiders" comments but I don't know what site they get it from.

I'm not doubting whether Louisville could win if given the chance, but rather, whether they will get that chance.

Vegas has had UofL pinned as the 3rd best team in the country for 6 weeks now behind Bama and OSU. I have to assume they are factoring odds of making the playoff iand game odds for semi final and final matchups and that's what they're offering.

Lville's best two wins are over a FSU team that had a banged up defense and a terrible pass protection, and 6-4 Wake Forest. they were not impressive in the UVA, Duke games, or most of the wake forest game. there's not enough evidence to declare them one of the best 4 teams. doesn't seem worth talking them up prior to the Houston game because good chance it is going to be a moot point after it.

Well, Louisville watched the Hokies over the weekend and said "Hey let's try that!"