(11-07-2016 05:32 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  TCU, Utah, and Boise altered their approach to recruiting in a way that doesn't really show up in rankings. From a Utah perspective, you may have a low 3 star kid who is a coach's son, went to all the camps, is fundamentally solid, and an all star at the high school level versus a really athletic low 3 star kid who played HS basketball, picked up football as a sophomore, and made local honorable mention lists in his second year of FB. If that second kid was willing to buy into the school's development approach, then he (and not the coach's son) got the offer. They systematically focused on underdeveloped high ceiling kids and relied on their development system to turn them into football players.

Part 2, is you have to get lucky at QB. QB is the hardest position to project and has the most limited amount of reap to go around so talent gets spread wider. Landing a real NFL QB at a midmajor happens, but it's hard to just make it happen. Utah and TCU lucked into NFL QBs in Smith and Dalton while Boise landed an elite college QB in Moore. There's a fair amount of luck in that timing.

So I think the answer is that a G5 school has to have a coach with a system, recruit under the radar talent to the system, and have an admin and fanbase that will support the coaches through this transition. And when things get rolling you hope that you have a great QB in the system. Everybody knows the recipe, but few can pull it off.

Yep. Smith was only a 3 star out of Cali recruited by the guy before Urban. 3 years later: The #1 pick in the NFL draft.
Cheers!

(11-07-2016 05:56 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 05:32 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  TCU, Utah, and Boise altered their approach to recruiting in a way that doesn't really show up in rankings. From a Utah perspective, you may have a low 3 star kid who is a coach's son, went to all the camps, is fundamentally solid, and an all star at the high school level versus a really athletic low 3 star kid who played HS basketball, picked up football as a sophomore, and made local honorable mention lists in his second year of FB. If that second kid was willing to buy into the school's development approach, then he (and not the coach's son) got the offer. They systematically focused on underdeveloped high ceiling kids and relied on their development system to turn them into football players.

Part 2, is you have to get lucky at QB. QB is the hardest position to project and has the most limited amount of reap to go around so talent gets spread wider. Landing a real NFL QB at a midmajor happens, but it's hard to just make it happen. Utah and TCU lucked into NFL QBs in Smith and Dalton while Boise landed an elite college QB in Moore. There's a fair amount of luck in that timing.

So I think the answer is that a G5 school has to have a coach with a system, recruit under the radar talent to the system, and have an admin and fanbase that will support the coaches through this transition. And when things get rolling you hope that you have a great QB in the system. Everybody knows the recipe, but few can pull it off.

Yep. Smith was only a 3 star out of Cali recruited by the guy before Urban. 3 years later: The #1 pick in the NFL draft.
Cheers!

Urban gets too much credit for "turning Utah around". McBride did that. McBride reconnected with the Polynesian community and stopped the policy of not allowing Mormon kids to go on missions (if you go 2 decades in Utah without recruiting Mormons and Polynesians, you get Utah football of the 70s and 80s). McBride also brought in Whittinghams to run the defense in the mid 90s, built the physical Polynesian lines Utah is still known for, and recruited some NFL QBs (Scott Mitchell, Alex Smith).

Utah was going to be a 10+ win Go5 program in the Alex Smith years, but what Urban did was turn that into a team that could go undefeated. Urban's years were essentially a typical Kyle Whittingham defense with a McBride QB and a great motivator in Urban. It was a perfect storm.

Utah football definitely needs a three-headed statue of McBride, Whittingham, and Meyer with all about equally important.

(11-06-2016 11:57 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 11:18 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  To get an idea where FB recruiting is heading take a look at the Top 10 G5 classes.

35. Houston
42. Memphis
48. UCF
50. Western Michigan
53. USF
61. UTSA
62. Toledo
66. Navy
70. Boise State
71. SMU

http://247sports.com/Season/2017-Footbal...amRankings

Traditionally a Top 60 class is about the minimum required to field a Top 20 team. Its what Utah and TCU were doing before they upgraded to P5's now they can pull in Top 40 recruiting classes.

WMU and Toledo can go head-2-head against weak B1G schools for players. Both are rated ahead of Minnesota, Illinois and Purdue.

Western Michigan had a top 50 recruiting class? How? TCU was putting several guys in the NFL every season in the MWC with classes that didn't sniff the top 50. E\
Cheers!

Uh, I guess you don't know PJ Fleck has set 'Top Recruiting Class in MAC History' 4 years straight, and has pretty much been leading the G5 in recruiting?

(11-07-2016 05:32 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  So I think the answer is that a G5 school has to have a coach with a system, recruit under the radar talent to the system, and have an admin and fanbase that will support the coaches through this transition. And when things get rolling you hope that you have a great QB in the system. Everybody knows the recipe, but few can pull it off.

Where does it begin when building a program?

1) Coach with great in-state HS relationships.
2) Staff effectively networking with transfers.
3) Strong walk-on program building on in-state presence.
4) Weight program to build bigger, faster players.
5) Coaches that can teach technique and clean play.
6) Great play calling and opponent preparation.
7) Winning football games.
8) Winning conference championships.
9) Winning NYD bowl games to attract national recruits.
10) Winning National Championships.

While as I've showed being located in Texas and Florida gives a school a natural recruiting advantage if the staff can't coach it's not going to mean anything.

If a coaching staff is super good winning games beyond what their local talent base would dictate they'll eventually pull in some national recruits. This is what Boise is doing raking in a top recruit from Virginia.

From what I'm seeing then it makes sense to do what Wyoming did with Craig Bohl or Eastern Michigan with Chris Creighton....go out and find a super good FCS coach who knows how to win football games and play beyond your level for a while until the recruiting catches up.

It's pretty clear what happened at Boise State.

As an FCS school they must of had great relationships with HS coaches and a track record of player development. They won a lot of games in FCS.

The move to FBS and on top of that the put in great offense schemes and then started racking up FBS conference championships. It didn't hurt of course they get Friday night ESPN games with the WAC package.

Then in contention with BCS bowls it helped to attract next level recruits to the program who would have nothing to do with them without that winning track record.

Today with G5's like Houston and USF pulling in Top 40 classes comparable to what TCU is doing with P5 membership, its no longer necessary to be in P5 to max out your recruiting. The only problem is 90% of G5 programs have lower ceilings in recruiting.

With the influx of all the new G5 programs over time the G5 is going to catch up some to the P5 as those programs max out their relationships and experience charts. More programs also make for more graduate transfers with experience developing in an FBS program.

Here's the thing, IMO:

other than the money of course, being P5 gives you access to (more?) 4* and 5* recruits than if you were G5. Not universal, but I think safe to say on average.

But guess what? Those recruits are often overrated and prima donnas.

(11-11-2016 10:34 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Here's the thing, IMO:

other than the money of course, being P5 gives you access to (more?) 4* and 5* recruits than if you were G5. Not universal, but I think safe to say on average.

But guess what? Those recruits are often overrated and prima donnas.

For the P5 programs that pack it in 70,000 a game that are a source of statewide pride like the Washington's and Michigan's a coach could walk in the door and could have them playing for a national title within a year or two. These are the programs that are automatic magnets for 4 and 5 star recruits.

For the smaller programs in FBS it can be done but it takes years of building, first to the conference championship level and then beyond.

In many respects a Baylor is no different than a top flight G5 program, having some of the same disadvantages in recruiting, exposure and scheduling compared to the advantages of a Texas or Texas A&M program. They even were passed over for the playoff one year for Ohio State a mega college football institution.

Look at TCU vs Houston, then.

If they're both offering the same 4* kid a full ride, with the same likely opportunity for playing time ... then TCU can say "you'll get to play Texas, Oklahoma, etc. every year". Houston can't say that.


That's all I'm saying, is that in theory the 4* 5* kids should be attracted to that "P5 status".

ECU's class is 67th. Not sure why it wasn't in the top 10 G5 classes list: http://eastcarolina.247sports.com/Season...ll/Commits

And have you noticed that 6 of the top 10 classes (with ECU included) come from the AAC?

(11-06-2016 11:18 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  To get an idea where FB recruiting is heading take a look at the Top 10 G5 classes.

35. Houston
42. Memphis
48. UCF
50. Western Michigan
53. USF
61. UTSA
62. Toledo
66. Navy
70. Boise State
71. SMU

http://247sports.com/Season/2017-Footbal...amRankings

Traditionally a Top 60 class is about the minimum required to field a Top 20 team. Its what Utah and TCU were doing before they upgraded to P5's now they can pull in Top 40 recruiting classes.

Houston, UTSA and SMU are milking the overflow of P5 level recruits in Texas.

Memphis always had a lot of talent in their backyard but at various times struggles to keep them from heading to SEC schools.

UCF and USF have been very strong recruiting programs for 10 years now.

WMU and Toledo can go head-2-head against weak B1G schools for players. Both are rated ahead of Minnesota, Illinois and Purdue.

Navy has a lot of national exposure playing ND and the academies every year.

Boise State has a lot of tradition to sell.

If you are getting the #60 recruiting class every year, and every year the same schools are ahead of you, logic dictates that you shouldn't be sniffing a Top 20 ranking. That logic, however, is based on a huge assumption - that individual player rankings are accurate. I think there's enough evidence to say that simply isn't true.

Does that mean ESPN's 5 star recruits are overrated? Not really. Most of them wind up playing on Sundays if they don't get badly injured. But 2 and 3 star kids? Those are a crapshoot. The scouts are all too busy looking at the 4s and 5s to pay much attention to anyone else. And those are all that G5 schools get except in rare cases.

And ratings are affected by another major distorting factor. Kids' star ratings are affected by who is recruiting them. That 2 star kid whose coach convinces an Alabama or Ohio State to take a chance on him becomes a 4 star overnight even though he is no better than he was yesterday.

Football star rankings are about as inexact as any science could get.

(11-11-2016 01:20 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Look at TCU vs Houston, then.

If they're both offering the same 4* kid a full ride, with the same likely opportunity for playing time ... then TCU can say "you'll get to play Texas, Oklahoma, etc. every year". Houston can't say that.


That's all I'm saying, is that in theory the 4* 5* kids should be attracted to that "P5 status".

The ETA's for building a program that can challenge for a playoff spot aren't any better.

Michigan: Harbaugh year 2 and he has the Wolverines in the playoff picture.

Washington: Petersen year 3 and he has the Huskies in the playoff picture.

Western Michigan: Fleck year 4 after starting 0-12 is poised for a NYD bowl.

Colorado: MacInyre year 4 after starting 4-8 is poised for a NYD bowl.

See how long its taken Colorado's coach to get them in contention for a NYD bowl. Yes they may have more recruiting potential in the PAC but that is balanced out by a much more difficult schedule in the PAC than what Fleck has had to build against in the MAC.

Those 70k seater P5 programs have enough talent to quickly contend for a title if they can just can get a good enough coaching job to do it.

For a Colorado and WMU it will take winning that NYD game, keeping their coaches and having the right schedule in year 5 to get into the playoff picture.

(11-11-2016 04:28 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 11:18 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  To get an idea where FB recruiting is heading take a look at the Top 10 G5 classes.

35. Houston
42. Memphis
48. UCF
50. Western Michigan
53. USF
61. UTSA
62. Toledo
66. Navy
70. Boise State
71. SMU

http://247sports.com/Season/2017-Footbal...amRankings

Traditionally a Top 60 class is about the minimum required to field a Top 20 team. Its what Utah and TCU were doing before they upgraded to P5's now they can pull in Top 40 recruiting classes.

Houston, UTSA and SMU are milking the overflow of P5 level recruits in Texas.

Memphis always had a lot of talent in their backyard but at various times struggles to keep them from heading to SEC schools.

UCF and USF have been very strong recruiting programs for 10 years now.

WMU and Toledo can go head-2-head against weak B1G schools for players. Both are rated ahead of Minnesota, Illinois and Purdue.

Navy has a lot of national exposure playing ND and the academies every year.

Boise State has a lot of tradition to sell.

If you are getting the #60 recruiting class every year, and every year the same schools are ahead of you, logic dictates that you shouldn't be sniffing a Top 20 ranking. That logic, however, is based on a huge assumption - that individual player rankings are accurate. I think there's enough evidence to say that simply isn't true.

A top 60 class is a P5 level recruiting class.

If a G5 program is pulling Top 60 classes and is coached up properly its enough talent to be a legit Top 20 team. That is where Boise State is right now.

There will be teams in the P5 with classes rated in the 40's and 50's but with losing seasons because of crappy coaching.