(11-05-2016 04:02 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 03:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  and another had Vandy at 55 and BC at 64. It's a difference. And there's a pretty big gap in the actual rating. And a lot of BC's computer ratings frankly are the teams that they lost to. Not really who they beat.

Bottom line, I'd take where Auburn is over Louisville 100% of the time right now. Louisville now to have any chance quite frankly needs Alabama to beat Auburn. If Auburn beats Alabama, Alabama will be in over Louisville(with Auburn going as well).

You're propping up Vandy??? Who got ***** slapped by Georgia Tech 38-7? That Vandy??

Beating them at home is a quality win???

Uhhhh ... sure. Just pass me whatever it is your smoking. Cuz it must be good.

And UNC got beat by Georgia and Virginia Tech got destroyed by Tennessee. Who cares. Louisville has still to date played exactly 2 quality teams. You are 1-1 against the top 25. You are ranked #7 even with one of the worst resumes' of the top 10 teams and now you will move up. Gotta love the eye test!

(11-05-2016 04:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 03:32 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 03:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  right now the following teams control their own destiny-
Clemson
Michigan
Ohio St
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Washington
Alabama
Florida
Auburn

following need some help
Louisville
Penn St
LSU
Texas A&M

so to me- we're down to only 13 that have a shot to make the playoff. maybe a Oklahoma does- but they would need a ton of help- like Alabama, Clemson, and Michigan winning out(clearing out a lot of drek)- Washington losing- and then being viewed as better than Louisville.

Your list is pretty good, I would add Colorado as a team with a chance but needs help.

Just don't see them being able to top even an Oklahoma quite frankly. I think they would need just too much help.

1st Oklahoma #14 and Colorado #15 are only 1 spot apart in the CFP rankings. Meaning they're essentially equal right now.

2nd Pac12>BIGXII this year

3rd Oklahoma has beaten know one and essentially has one decent team left to play (WVU). Baylor is getting torched by TCU as I type this and Okie St isn't that great.

4th Colorado may not have beaten anyone yet either but they should have one top 20(WSU) and one top 15(Utah) game left to play. And if they win then they should get a shot at a top 4 UW in a conference championship game. That trumps anything Oklahoma can do period

(11-05-2016 04:39 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 04:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 03:32 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 03:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  right now the following teams control their own destiny-
Clemson
Michigan
Ohio St
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Washington
Alabama
Florida
Auburn

following need some help
Louisville
Penn St
LSU
Texas A&M

so to me- we're down to only 13 that have a shot to make the playoff. maybe a Oklahoma does- but they would need a ton of help- like Alabama, Clemson, and Michigan winning out(clearing out a lot of drek)- Washington losing- and then being viewed as better than Louisville.

Your list is pretty good, I would add Colorado as a team with a chance but needs help.

Just don't see them being able to top even an Oklahoma quite frankly. I think they would need just too much help.

1st Oklahoma #14 and Colorado #15 are only 1 spot apart in the CFP rankings. Meaning they're essentially equal right now.

2nd Pac12>BIGXII this year

3rd Oklahoma has beaten know one and essentially has one decent team left to play (WVU). Baylor is getting torched by TCU as I type this and Okie St isn't that great.

4th Colorado may not have beaten anyone yet either but they should have one top 20(WSU) and one top 15(Utah) game left to play. And if they win then they should get a shot at a top 4 UW in a conference championship game. That trumps anything Oklahoma can do period

You're assuming that Washington will beat Washington St. Yes, that would mean that WSU would be ranked higher- but would also mean that win would get compromised in the title game- meaning it would be a 9-4 WSU team end of the day which doesn't help much.... For Colorado to have much of a chance, they would need Washington to be 12-0 and in the title game....

And even there- Colorado would be precarious at best.

(11-05-2016 02:43 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 02:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Auburn controls their own destiny. Louisville does not.

It's that simple.

I think we all know who controls their destiny. The joke is media members claiming any SEC conference win is a quality win, when the SEC East is practically G5 quality this year.

I hope a Houston fan saves this post.

WSU isn't that good....

(11-05-2016 04:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 04:39 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 04:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 03:32 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 03:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  right now the following teams control their own destiny-
Clemson
Michigan
Ohio St
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Washington
Alabama
Florida
Auburn

following need some help
Louisville
Penn St
LSU
Texas A&M

so to me- we're down to only 13 that have a shot to make the playoff. maybe a Oklahoma does- but they would need a ton of help- like Alabama, Clemson, and Michigan winning out(clearing out a lot of drek)- Washington losing- and then being viewed as better than Louisville.

Your list is pretty good, I would add Colorado as a team with a chance but needs help.

Just don't see them being able to top even an Oklahoma quite frankly. I think they would need just too much help.

1st Oklahoma #14 and Colorado #15 are only 1 spot apart in the CFP rankings. Meaning they're essentially equal right now.

2nd Pac12>BIGXII this year

3rd Oklahoma has beaten know one and essentially has one decent team left to play (WVU). Baylor is getting torched by TCU as I type this and Okie St isn't that great.

4th Colorado may not have beaten anyone yet either but they should have one top 20(WSU) and one top 15(Utah) game left to play. And if they win then they should get a shot at a top 4 UW in a conference championship game. That trumps anything Oklahoma can do period

You're assuming that Washington will beat Washington St. Yes, that would mean that WSU would be ranked higher- but would also mean that win would get compromised in the title game- meaning it would be a 9-4 WSU team end of the day which doesn't help much.... For Colorado to have much of a chance, they would need Washington to be 12-0 and in the title game....

And even there- Colorado would be precarious at best.

your list is full of assumptions. All I'm trying to say is that Colorado has a chance. I understand that they need help, so does everyone else not ranked in the top 6

there's 9 teams that really control their own fate...... Clemson, Michigan, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Washington, Alabama, Florida, and Auburn. If any of those 9 teams win out, they are in- end of story.

Colorado's problem is they would not only have Oklahoma to deal with, but frankly Louisville as well. And if Michigan or Alabama lose and don't make their title game, those teams as well.

Oh, and you were the one assuming that Washington will be in the Pac 12 title game.

(11-05-2016 02:28 PM)westwolf Wrote:  Miss St 35, #4 Texas A&M 28

The way the committee works, A&M will probably move up a spot.


.

(11-05-2016 05:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  there's 9 teams that really control their own fate...... Clemson, Michigan, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Washington, Alabama, Florida, and Auburn. If any of those 9 teams win out, they are in- end of story.

Colorado's problem is they would not only have Oklahoma to deal with, but frankly Louisville as well. And if Michigan or Alabama lose and don't make their title game, those teams as well.

Oh, and you were the one assuming that Washington will be in the Pac 12 title game.

And you are assuming UW won't be, so yea for assumptions

(11-05-2016 04:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Louisville's only hope right now frankly is a lot of chalk. Alabama win SEC- knocking out Florida, Auburn, and LSU. Michigan winning Big Ten- knocking out Ohio St, Penn St, Nebraska, Wisconsin. Then have Washington lose.

This I agree with.

The only teams that control their own fate are Alabama, Clemson, Michigan & Washington. If they win they are in. IF Wisconsin, Ohio State, Auburn or LSU win their conference they are in so you could say that they control their own fate as well. Perhaps Penn State as well. Florida is losing to Arkansas so I'm leaving them out. I don't see Nebraska getting into the title game over Wisconsin. Oklahoma & Colorado need chaos to get in.

Louisville needs others to lose & FSU winning out would help as well. Houston is #26 in the polls & could still be ranked when they play. Houston is also still favored to win the AAC. UK can still win the East & be 8-3 when they play. If these happen that will bolster Louisville resume but even with this & winning out Louisville is only guaranteed the Orange Bowl.

(Charlotte is beating Southern Miss 38-27 late in the 4th so UL worse W is about to get better. ;-P)

If Nebraska wins out they are division champs. So as of right now they control their own fate and actually Wisconsin doesn't. That can/will change after tonight

Also right now LSU doesn't control their own fate(Auburn beats Bama and Auburn has tiebreaker).

(11-05-2016 04:59 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 02:43 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 02:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Auburn controls their own destiny. Louisville does not.

It's that simple.

I think we all know who controls their destiny. The joke is media members claiming any SEC conference win is a quality win, when the SEC East is practically G5 quality this year.

I hope a Houston fan saves this post.

I have no idea why a Houston fan would want to save that post. What does my acknowledgment that Louisville does not control its own destiny have to do with Houston?

(11-05-2016 07:57 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 04:59 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 02:43 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 02:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Auburn controls their own destiny. Louisville does not.

It's that simple.

I think we all know who controls their destiny. The joke is media members claiming any SEC conference win is a quality win, when the SEC East is practically G5 quality this year.

I hope a Houston fan saves this post.

I have no idea why a Houston fan would want to save that post. What does my acknowledgment that Louisville does not control its own destiny have to do with Houston?

No idea. Louisville and Houston are kinda in the same boat in that regard. Louisville's world is completely different if they win that close one against Clemson. We might have survived the loss to Navy---but layering on the SMU loss pretty much killed us.

(11-05-2016 06:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Also right now LSU doesn't control their own fate(Auburn beats Bama and Auburn has tiebreaker).

SEC West is 9-1 vs. SEC East this year. Only win was UK's last second FG win over MSU. 4 games remain, Mizzou-Ark, LSU-FL, Auburn-UGA and Ole Miss-Vandy. West schools will be favorites in at least 3, probably all 4.

so updated:
right now the following teams control their own destiny-
Clemson
Michigan
Ohio St
Wisconsin
Washington
Alabama
Auburn

any/all of those teams that win out are playoff bound 100% guaranteed.

following need some help
Louisville
Penn St
Nebraska
Texas A&M
Florida

The funniest one is Florida. If somehow they won out, they would be 11-2 and SEC champs.

(11-05-2016 02:28 PM)westwolf Wrote:  Miss St 35, #4 Texas A&M 28

On the "vision test", it looks an awfully lot like Texas A&M lost that there game.

(11-05-2016 02:43 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  The SEC East is practically G5 quality this year.

More like Big 12 quality. Which, this year, is not a helluva lot better than AAC quality.

Minnesota also controls its own destiny for winning the Big Ten West.

(11-06-2016 12:36 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so updated:
any/all of those teams that win out are playoff bound 100% guaranteed.

following need some help
Louisville
Penn St
Nebraska
Texas A&M
Florida

I Believe you can take them off the list.... They lost by 60. I feel that alone should knock them from the top 25.