Ohio State has more chances to prove how good they are, WMU doesn't. Fair or not, it is what it is.

(11-03-2016 02:00 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  Ohio State has more chances to prove how good they are, WMU doesn't. Fair or not, it is what it is.

They are looking good at 9-0 right now and if they finish 13-0 they are in the Cotton Bowl, if they slip, they are not. Funny, I saw a (sporting news?) bowl projection that has them playing Boise St in the Cotton Bowl. Doubt that would happen, but if it did, would Boise get the same amount of $ as a P5 at large school would receive? I'm wondering if the ESPN/playoff clowns factored in a scenerio as unlikely as that one!
Cheers!

Quote:They are looking good at 9-0 right now and if they finish 13-0 they are in the Cotton Bowl

Given the POV of the CFP Committee, there's a chance they won't (25%?): Boise.

- Wyoming loses to SD-State & Air Force (Quite possible; Wyoming coming off a 2-10 season; new to winning consistently)
- SD-State runs the rest of the table to be 1L going into MWC Game (Very Possible)
- Boise runs the rest of the table in regular season (VERY Possible)
- Boise then goes to MWC + beats SD-State (Pretty Possible; Favored)

- Washington State who Boise beat, Beats Washington & Wins P12 Division by not dropping 2 games after (Not Likely)
- Northwestern does NOT beat Wisconsin this Saturday, which would basically equalize themselves with Wash State if NW beats 3 very winnable games remaining after (Very Possible to lose to Wisc or drop later game)

... if things play out like this, the way the CFP Committee sees it now, Boise will Definitely go. Thankfully, it requires Washington State, who also lost to a (good) D1AA team to continue their streak facing tougher teams + Wyoming to blow it against Air Force while Not beating SD-State either (and Boise to beat SD-State which is a tougher opponent than Ohio that WMU would face).

Go Wyoming. Go Northwestern. Go Washington (not Washington State).

(11-03-2016 05:14 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:They are looking good at 9-0 right now and if they finish 13-0 they are in the Cotton Bowl

Given the POV of the CFP Committee, there's a chance they won't (25%?): Boise.

- Wyoming loses to SD-State & Air Force (Quite possible; Wyoming coming off a 2-10 season; new to winning consistently)
- SD-State runs the rest of the table to be 1L going into MWC Game (Very Possible)
- Boise runs the rest of the table in regular season (VERY Possible)
- Boise then goes to MWC + beats SD-State (Pretty Possible; Favored)

- Washington State who Boise beat, Beats Washington & Wins P12 Division by not dropping 2 games after (Not Likely)
- Northwestern does NOT beat Wisconsin this Saturday, which would basically equalize themselves with Wash State if NW beats 3 very winnable games remaining after (Very Possible to lose to Wisc or drop later game)

... if things play out like this, the way the CFP Committee sees it now, Boise will Definitely go. Thankfully, it requires Washington State, who also lost to a (good) D1AA team to continue their streak facing tougher teams + Wyoming to blow it against Air Force while Not beating SD-State either (and Boise to beat SD-State which is a tougher opponent than Ohio that WMU would face).

Go Wyoming. Go Northwestern. Go Washington (not Washington State).

That is a hellava scenario! One thing: I thought Wyoming beat Air Force already?
Cheers!

(11-03-2016 05:14 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Given the POV of the CFP Committee, there's a chance they won't (25%?): Boise.

- Wyoming loses to SD-State & Air Force (Quite possible; Wyoming coming off a 2-10 season; new to winning consistently)
- SD-State runs the rest of the table to be 1L going into MWC Game (Very Possible)
- Boise runs the rest of the table in regular season (VERY Possible)
- Boise then goes to MWC + beats SD-State (Pretty Possible; Favored)

- Washington State who Boise beat, Beats Washington & Wins P12 Division by not dropping 2 games after (Not Likely)
- Northwestern does NOT beat Wisconsin this Saturday, which would basically equalize themselves with Wash State if NW beats 3 very winnable games remaining after (Very Possible to lose to Wisc or drop later game)

... if things play out like this, the way the CFP Committee sees it now, Boise will Definitely go. Thankfully, it requires Washington State, who also lost to a (good) D1AA team to continue their streak facing tougher teams + Wyoming to blow it against Air Force while Not beating SD-State either (and Boise to beat SD-State which is a tougher opponent than Ohio that WMU would face).

(Quite Possible)x(Very Possible)^3x(Not Likely) is < 25% odds ... or at least it is "highly likely to be".

If "Not Likely" is 25% at best, (Quite Possible)x(Very Possible)^3 is less than you might think ... if "Quite Possible" is 80% and "Very Possible" is 95%, each of them individually very strong odds, (Quite Possible)x(Very Possible)^3 = ~68% ... if any one of those "Very Possible" is 90% instead, ~65%. The way that stringing a series of high odds events together drag down the odds are one reason people over-estimate high odds events that still require a combination of things to come together.

Maybe more like one in five to one in eight.

Certainly more likely that WMU loses a game than that it wins out and is "beaten at the tape" by a strong SOS CCG win by Boise State.

Well, it looks like Ohio might actually give WMU its toughest test in the MAC CCG. Although obviously Toledo won't be a cake walk, either.

(11-04-2016 12:21 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Well, it looks like Ohio might actually give WMU its toughest test in the MAC CCG. Although obviously Toledo won't be a cake walk, either.

After watching WMU's rush defense against Ball State I'm not sure they make it through those two games without an L.

Quote:That is a hellava scenario! One thing: I thought Wyoming beat Air Force already?

You're right! I got schedules mixed up. Losing to New Mexico (who's also 5-3) and SDSU.

Quote:Certainly more likely that WMU loses a game than that it wins out and is "beaten at the tape" by a strong SOS CCG win by Boise State.

Basically, more likely WMU loses a game than Wyoming loses 2 of those games? Roughly the same. But add on Boise also having to beat SD-State -- yeah, easier that WMU loses a game.

Quote:After watching WMU's rush defense against Ball State I'm not sure they make it through those two games without an L.

1st half was AWFUL. Sick. But 2nd half they clamped down and stuffed their run. WMU's like that (rolling eyes).