Figured I'd get this going this week. There are still several conferences where things are very murky, but there are several where things are becoming clear. I didn't get too detailed on the bubble teams this week as there are still so many ways things can go, but I did make informed picks based on the schedules. My analysis below.

SEC (9 tie ins, 2 Semi/NY6 slots, 11 slots total)
- 8 teams are in or all but in
- Georgia and South Carolina are likely in
- One of Vandy and Ole Miss could get in
Projection: 11 slots, 11 teams


Big 12 (6 tie ins, 1 Semi/NY6 slot, 7 slots total)
- 5 teams are in or all but in
- Some combination of TCU, Texas Tech, and Texas will get in
Projection: 7 slots, 7 teams


Big 10 (8 tie ins, 4 Semi/NY6 slots, 12 slots total)
- 8 teams are in or all but in
- Some combination of Indiana, Purdue, and Northwestern could get in
Projection: 12 slots, 10 teams
Open Bowls: Quick Lane Bowl, Heart of Dallas Bowl


Pac 12 (6 tie ins, 2 Semi/NY6 slots, 8 slots total)
- 6 teams are in or all but in
- Some combination of Arizona St, Cal, UCLA, Oregon could get in, but this is one of the conferences where things could head in several different directions.
Projection: 8 slots, 7 teams
Open Bowls: Cactus Bowl


ACC/ND (9 tie ins, 2 Semi/NY6 slots, 11 slots total)
- 7 teams are in or all but in
- Some combination of BC, Pitt, Syracuse, Duke, and GA Tech could get in
Projection: 11 slots, 10 teams
Open Bowls: St Pete Bowl


AAC (8 tie ins)
- 6 teams in or all but in
- Some combination of Cincy, UCF, ECU could get in
Projection: 8 slots, 8 teams


MWC (6 tie ins, 1 NY6 slot, 7 slots total)
- 5 teams are in or all but in
- Some combination of Colorado St, Hawaii, Nevada, and SJSU will get in
Projection: 7 slots, 7 teams


Sun Belt (5 tie ins)
- 2 teams are in
- Some combination of stAte, Idaho, USA, GaSo, and the Cajuns will get in
Projection: 5 tie ins, 5 teams


MAC (5 tie ins)
- 4 teams are in or all but in
- Some combination of CMU, EMU, Miami, and Ball State could get in
Projection: 5 tie ins, 6 teams


CUSA (5 tie ins)
- 5 teams are in or all but in
- Some combination of UTEP, UNT, or UTSA could get in
Projection: 5 tie ins, 6 teams


Independents
- BYU will be in and is contracted to Poinsettia
- Army could get in, but has to beat one of Notre Dame, Air Force, or Navy. I do not think they'll get that one win.



Summary

Extra Teams
CUSA - 1
MAC - 1
Sun Belt - 1

Open Bowls
Quick Lane vs ACC
Heart of Dallas vs CUSA
St Petersburg vs AAC
Cactus vs Big 12 (or Arizona vs SBC)

The MAC has a backup agreement in place with the Quick Lane Bowl, so that would be easily filled.

The Cactus Bowl is interesting as the MWC has a backup slot there, but I am pretty sure they can choose to place a team in that bowl over one of their primary contracts if they want, meaning it could be the Arizona Bowl that is open instead.

That leaves Heart of Dallas, St Pete, and Cactus/Arizona for a CUSA and Sun Belt team. I project we'd put a CUSA team in St Pete against the AAC, and the Sun Belt would play in Heart of Dallas (I can hear your groans now). That would leave a 5-7 team to fill the Arizona Bowl.




tl;dr Heart of Dallas is not going to have a Big 10 opponent at this rate, but we could very easily gain the St Pete slot against the AAC.

That is really good stuff MT...

CBS Bowl Tracker

He said UTEP ?

Bowls, bowls, bowls ...

CBS
Heart of Dallas: Western Kentucky vs. Texas
Hawaii: Old Dominion vs. Air Force
Bahamas: Louisiana Tech vs. Ohio
New Orleans: Southern Miss vs. Louisiana(-Lafayette)
New Mexico: Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico

SB Nation
Heart of Dallas: Western Kentucky vs. Army
Boca Raton: Southern Miss vs. Memphis
New Orleans: Louisiana Tech vs. Louisiana(-Lafayette)
New Mexico: Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico

Campus Insiders
Heart of Dallas: Southern Miss vs. Syracuse
Hawaii: Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico
Boca Raton: Old Dominion vs. Tulsa
New Orleans: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
New Mexico: Western Kentucky vs. Wyoming

Using the Sagarin Predictor to play out the season, there will be 73 teams fully bowl-eligible with 6 countable FBS wins (one FCS win allowed) and at least 6-6 records.

AAC (7), ACC (9), Big 12 (6), Big Ten (10), C-USA (5), Indy (BYU), MAC (6), MWC (6), Pac 12 (7), SEC (11), SBC (5)

Even if Army loses to Air Force this week (projected win), all it has to do is beat Morgan State (current 50+ favorite) to get to 6 wins overall with two FCS wins. The Black Knights get in if there are not 80 other teams at 6-6 with no more than 1 FCS win.

Hawai'i is projected to finish 6-7, so it would get in before any 5-7 teams are considered by APR ranking.

That leaves 5 5-7 teams to include by APR ranking. In order as of right now they would be North Texas (984), Boston College (981), Utah State (978), Notre Dame (975), UCLA (963). NIU would be the next team in line by APR.

I wonder if Notre Dame would pass on this. Bowl projections aren't accurately taking into account the new rule that all otherwise eligible teams must be placed in a game before the APR teams can be.

I wish there was a way for LA Tech to go back to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Wouldn't mind playing BYU at all. LA Tech played TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl back in 2011 (and lost 24-17, very late in the 4th Qtr). Loved that bowl, and I know the players like San Diego.

(10-30-2016 02:20 PM)MTowho Wrote:  CUSA (5 tie ins)
- 5 teams are in or all but in
- Some combination of UTEP, UNT, or UTEP could get in
Projection: 5 tie ins, 6 teams

I'm sure you meant UTSA and not UTEP twice but my guess is that if one of those three makes it, it will be as a 5-7 with a high APR. I think UNT has the highest APR but UTEP's is good also. Don't know about UTSA.

(10-30-2016 04:55 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Bowls, bowls, bowls ...

CBS
Heart of Dallas: Western Kentucky vs. Texas
Hawaii: Old Dominion vs. Air Force
Bahamas: Louisiana Tech vs. Ohio
New Orleans: Southern Miss vs. Louisiana(-Lafayette)
New Mexico: Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico

SB Nation
Heart of Dallas: Western Kentucky vs. Army
Boca Raton: Southern Miss vs. Memphis
New Orleans: Louisiana Tech vs. Louisiana(-Lafayette)
New Mexico: Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico

Campus Insiders
Heart of Dallas: Southern Miss vs. Syracuse
Hawaii: Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico
Boca Raton: Old Dominion vs. Tulsa
New Orleans: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
New Mexico: Western Kentucky vs. Wyoming

Thank Gawd only 1 outta 3 have N'Awlins Bowl..

Would love to play our old friends from "Mamphus", but waaay too early to speculate..

I would chomp at the bit to play UT in the HoD bowl.....that would be kick in the arse fun one way or the other....

other than that, I'll take nola vs a school we have to recruit against....

btw, to the OP...nice compilation....thx!

(10-30-2016 05:20 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  I wish there was a way for LA Tech to go back to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Wouldn't mind playing BYU at all. LA Tech played TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl back in 2011 (and lost 24-17, very late in the 4th Qtr). Loved that bowl, and I know the players like San Diego.

Obviously this won't happen but as a thought exercise, I wonder if the postseason would be better or worse if the non-NY6/CFP bowls were slotted from top to bottom and allowed to pick their matchup (no bowl tie-ins, which is why this can never happen). So like if the Pinstripe Bowl was the first pick, they could take any two non-NY6/CFP teams, then the Citrus Bowl, then the Sun Bowl, and so on. Do you pick the two "best" teams? Do you try for a regional matchup? Storyline?

(10-30-2016 05:48 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(10-30-2016 05:20 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  I wish there was a way for LA Tech to go back to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Wouldn't mind playing BYU at all. LA Tech played TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl back in 2011 (and lost 24-17, very late in the 4th Qtr). Loved that bowl, and I know the players like San Diego.

Obviously this won't happen but as a thought exercise, I wonder if the postseason would be better or worse if the non-NY6/CFP bowls were slotted from top to bottom and allowed to pick their matchup (no bowl tie-ins, which is why this can never happen). So like if the Pinstripe Bowl was the first pick, they could take any two non-NY6/CFP teams, then the Citrus Bowl, then the Sun Bowl, and so on. Do you pick the two "best" teams? Do you try for a regional matchup? Storyline?

the first thing that comes to mind is the money behind the product allowing that to happen...

my guess is the money disappears within the current construct...

bowls are no longer about having a choice based on on-the-field performance by design...

if the big boys take their ball and run like I think they will when their tv contracts are close to expiring, then geographic match ups coupled with performance becomes intriguing....

that's my two pennies' worth....

(10-30-2016 05:36 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  I would chomp at the bit to play UT in the HoD bowl.....that would be kick in the arse fun one way or the other....

other than that, I'll take nola vs a school we have to recruit against....

btw, to the OP...nice compilation....thx!

I live in DFW and would love to go catch a USM/tu matchup. Go easy on 'em k?

(10-30-2016 07:22 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(10-30-2016 05:36 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  I would chomp at the bit to play UT in the HoD bowl.....that would be kick in the arse fun one way or the other....

other than that, I'll take nola vs a school we have to recruit against....

btw, to the OP...nice compilation....thx!

I live in DFW and would love to go catch a USM/tu matchup. Go easy on 'em k?

I only have have size 12 shoes

(10-30-2016 05:03 PM)FriscoDawg Wrote:  Using the Sagarin Predictor to play out the season, there will be 73 teams fully bowl-eligible with 6 countable FBS wins (one FCS win allowed) and at least 6-6 records.

AAC (7), ACC (9), Big 12 (6), Big Ten (10), C-USA (5), Indy (BYU), MAC (6), MWC (6), Pac 12 (7), SEC (11), SBC (5)

Even if Army loses to Air Force this week (projected win), all it has to do is beat Morgan State (current 50+ favorite) to get to 6 wins overall with two FCS wins. The Black Knights get in if there are not 80 other teams at 6-6 with no more than 1 FCS win.

Hawai'i is projected to finish 6-7, so it would get in before any 5-7 teams are considered by APR ranking.

That leaves 5 5-7 teams to include by APR ranking. In order as of right now they would be North Texas (984), Boston College (981), Utah State (978), Notre Dame (975), UCLA (963). NIU would be the next team in line by APR.

I wonder if Notre Dame would pass on this. Bowl projections aren't accurately taking into account the new rule that all otherwise eligible teams must be placed in a game before the APR teams can be.

Glad ya added north Texas Apr in there...CBS didn't list the school in their ranking

Hey OP, very good job. Thanks for putting this together.

(10-30-2016 05:28 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(10-30-2016 02:20 PM)MTowho Wrote:  CUSA (5 tie ins)
- 5 teams are in or all but in
- Some combination of UTEP, UNT, or UTEP could get in
Projection: 5 tie ins, 6 teams

I'm sure you meant UTSA and not UTEP twice but my guess is that if one of those three makes it, it will be as a 5-7 with a high APR. I think UNT has the highest APR but UTEP's is good also. Don't know about UTSA.

Most Current I can find 14-15 School Year
UTSA 956
UTEP 973

UTSA's dropped slightly from a 961 the previous year.

(10-30-2016 05:28 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(10-30-2016 02:20 PM)MTowho Wrote:  CUSA (5 tie ins)
- 5 teams are in or all but in
- Some combination of UTEP, UNT, or UTEP could get in
Projection: 5 tie ins, 6 teams

I'm sure you meant UTSA and not UTEP twice but my guess is that if one of those three makes it, it will be as a 5-7 with a high APR. I think UNT has the highest APR but UTEP's is good also. Don't know about UTSA.

My projection of 6 was based on teams with 6 wins. UTSA is the longest shot at this point given their remaining schedule. I know UTEP is 2-6 but they could easily win out given who they have left. UNT would need to beat UTEP and pull off an upset. Given all of the different permutations there, getting 1 of them in could happen. I'd say it's 50/50, maybe not even that.

UNT missed an opportunity this weekend to separate itself from UTSA in the west and really get close to solidifying a bowl win. I think C-USA gets five teams to six wins and a team or two at five wins. I think UNT, UTSA and UTEP will finish at five wins, with one of them making a bowl.

(10-31-2016 12:27 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  UNT missed an opportunity this weekend to separate itself from UTSA in the west and really get close to solidifying a bowl win. I think C-USA gets five teams to six wins and a team or two at five wins. I think UNT, UTSA and UTEP will finish at five wins, with one of them making a bowl.

I think you are right, With UNT beating UTEP to get to it's fifth win. But if UTEP beats UNT that could be 6 for the miners. Both UNT and UTSA have the tough part of the schedule coming up