Oops I forgot the 1.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory...y-43084097
Hillary Clinton appears on the cusp of a potentially commanding victory over Donald Trump, fueled by solid Democratic turnout in early voting, massive operational advantages and increasing enthusiasm among her supporters.

A new Associated Press-GfK poll released Wednesday finds that Clinton has grabbed significant advantages over her Republican rival with just 12 days left before Election Day. Among them: consolidating the support of her party and even winning some Republicans.

Overall, the poll shows Clinton leading Trump nationally by a staggering 14 percentage points among likely voters, 51-37. That margin is the largest national lead for Clinton among recent surveys. Most have generally shown her ahead of Trump for the past several weeks.

The AP-GfK poll finds that Clinton has secured the support of 90 percent of likely Democratic voters, and also has the backing of 15 percent of more moderate Republicans. Just 79 percent of all Republicans surveyed say they are voting for their party's nominee.

Latest Fox Poll has Hillary +3 in a 4 person race which is just outside the margin of error and has been steadily closing the past two weeks.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interact...r-26-2016/

Given the vastly different margins between the FOX and ABC polls I thought I'd look into their metholody and sample composition to see how they compared...

FOX Poll methodology and sample composition:
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research ®. The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers October 22-25, 2016 among a random national sample of 1,309 registered voters (RV).

Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. A subsample of 1,221 has been defined as likely voters (LV), with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Landline (565) and cellphone (744) telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state. Fieldwork conducted by Braun Research, Inc. of Princeton, NJ.

_______________________

[b]ABC Poll methodology and sample composition:[/b]
The AP-GfK Poll of 1,546 adults, including 1,212 likely voters, was conducted online Oct. 20-24, using a sample drawn from GfK's probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.75 percentage points, and for likely voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn't have access to the internet were provided access for free.

_______________________

It is pretty obvious that Hillary is ahead but the margin varies dramatically between the two polls. The sample group sizes are similar. It seems the key difference is the FOX poll is via phone (landline/cell) and the ABC pol, is online.

Only time will tell which polling method is more accurate.

Lets split the difference and call it +9

Both sound like they are missing large parts of the population.

(10-26-2016 06:28 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Oops I forgot the 1.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory...y-43084097
Hillary Clinton appears on the cusp of a potentially commanding victory over Donald Trump, fueled by solid Democratic turnout in early voting, massive operational advantages and increasing enthusiasm among her supporters.

A new Associated Press-GfK poll released Wednesday finds that Clinton has grabbed significant advantages over her Republican rival with just 12 days left before Election Day. Among them: consolidating the support of her party and even winning some Republicans.

Overall, the poll shows Clinton leading Trump nationally by a staggering 14 percentage points among likely voters, 51-37. That margin is the largest national lead for Clinton among recent surveys. Most have generally shown her ahead of Trump for the past several weeks.

The AP-GfK poll finds that Clinton has secured the support of 90 percent of likely Democratic voters, and also has the backing of 15 percent of more moderate Republicans. Just 79 percent of all Republicans surveyed say they are voting for their party's nominee.

LOL

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(10-26-2016 07:07 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  Lets split the difference and call it +9

You are in for a surprise.

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Both polls claim to use a sample methodology that will yield a sample representative of the total population and then a subset representative of the likely voter population.

ABC: The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.75 percentage points, and for likely voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

FOX: Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
A subsample of 1,221 has been defined as likely voters (LV), with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

(10-26-2016 07:34 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(10-26-2016 07:07 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  Lets split the difference and call it +9

You are in for a surprise.

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It was a joke. I never take anything in elections for granted. Even if it is this large an advantage right now it is bound to tighten by next week. The GOTV effort will be key as always.

Latest Fox News poll has Trump +13 with Independents. If that's even close to being right, Trump has this in the bag.

(10-26-2016 07:07 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  Lets split the difference and call it +9

I'll call it 6.5.

(10-26-2016 06:28 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Oops I forgot the 1.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory...y-43084097
Hillary Clinton appears on the cusp of a potentially commanding victory over Donald Trump, fueled by solid Democratic turnout in early voting, massive operational advantages and increasing enthusiasm among her supporters.

A new Associated Press-GfK poll released Wednesday finds that Clinton has grabbed significant advantages over her Republican rival with just 12 days left before Election Day. Among them: consolidating the support of her party and even winning some Republicans.

Overall, the poll shows Clinton leading Trump nationally by a staggering 14 percentage points among likely voters, 51-37. That margin is the largest national lead for Clinton among recent surveys. Most have generally shown her ahead of Trump for the past several weeks.

The AP-GfK poll finds that Clinton has secured the support of 90 percent of likely Democratic voters, and also has the backing of 15 percent of more moderate Republicans. Just 79 percent of all Republicans surveyed say they are voting for their party's nominee.

How did that fourteen point lead work out for you?

Troll alert.

Clinton +14 was so far outside of the margin of error that is literally impossible for Trump to have won if it were a legitimate poll.

ABC/AP is confirmed fake news.

Paste the url of the story in the OP into your browser, and attempt to view it. It redirects to ABC's home page.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory...y-43084097

They freakin' wiped the story from the internet. PATHETIC FAKE NEWS

bahahahaha

(12-11-2016 03:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Paste the url of the story in the OP into your browser, and attempt to view it. It redirects to ABC's home page.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory...y-43084097

They freakin' wiped the story from the internet. PATHETIC FAKE NEWS

bahahahaha

the magic cache reveals all.....

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/se...clnk&gl=us

(12-11-2016 03:46 PM)Kronke Wrote:  Clinton +14 was so far outside of the margin of error that is literally impossible for Trump to have won if it were a legitimate poll.

ABC/AP is confirmed fake news.

Yep

(12-11-2016 02:50 PM)usmbacker Wrote:  

(10-26-2016 06:28 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Oops I forgot the 1.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory...y-43084097
Hillary Clinton appears on the cusp of a potentially commanding victory over Donald Trump, fueled by solid Democratic turnout in early voting, massive operational advantages and increasing enthusiasm among her supporters.

A new Associated Press-GfK poll released Wednesday finds that Clinton has grabbed significant advantages over her Republican rival with just 12 days left before Election Day. Among them: consolidating the support of her party and even winning some Republicans.

Overall, the poll shows Clinton leading Trump nationally by a staggering 14 percentage points among likely voters, 51-37. That margin is the largest national lead for Clinton among recent surveys. Most have generally shown her ahead of Trump for the past several weeks.

The AP-GfK poll finds that Clinton has secured the support of 90 percent of likely Democratic voters, and also has the backing of 15 percent of more moderate Republicans. Just 79 percent of all Republicans surveyed say they are voting for their party's nominee.

How did that fourteen point lead work out for you?

Shrunk down to two: 48-46.

(11-08-2016 05:05 PM)Max Power Wrote:  

These #s were (apparently) based on exit-poll data. Has "VoteCastr" offered any explanation of how they got it so wrong, in state after state?

(12-11-2016 08:53 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(11-08-2016 05:05 PM)Max Power Wrote:  

These #s were (apparently) based on exit-poll data. Has "VoteCastr" offered any explanation of how they got it so wrong, in state after state?

Exit polls always tilt heavily to the Democrats. They were declaring Gore the winner early in 2000. That's when they realized they needed to look at actual vote totals.

(12-11-2016 09:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-11-2016 08:53 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(11-08-2016 05:05 PM)Max Power Wrote:  

These #s were (apparently) based on exit-poll data. Has "VoteCastr" offered any explanation of how they got it so wrong, in state after state?

Exit polls always tilt heavily to the Democrats. They were declaring Gore the winner early in 2000. That's when they realized they needed to look at actual vote totals.

Yep, and Kerry spent most of election afternoon and evening believing he was the president elect due to the exit polls.

Exit polls are like normal polls; if your polling method is attracting democrats like a magnet, and you cant get enough republicans to respond to the poll, then the result is a skewed mish-mash of pure unadulterated garbage.