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Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
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NH/JMU Saxkow Offline
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Post: #1
Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
Here we go again. We are now 4 weeks away from playoff time – the only way to settle a championship. Unlike last year, where there were a lot of questions about how the playoff field was going to be formed (being the first 11-game season with 24 playoff teams), the expectations should be clearer. Seven wins is a good threshold if you have a decent schedule, but you can even get an At Large bid with 6 wins if you have a very strong schedule (like Western Illinois did last year).

For those new to these articles, I will look to see who have been mathematically eliminated. This year, just like last year, I will include the MEAC because, theoretically, a 2nd place MEAC team could get an At-Large, but I will not go too in-depth unless it becomes necessary.

From a JMU Perspective...

Once again, JMU has positioned itself where they probably don't have to worry about whether they will make the playoffs – they will. Now they just need to position themselves for the best possible Seed. The Dukes have 4 games left – 2 against strong teams and 2 against weak teams. If JMU only beats the weak teams (URI and Elon), they might be able to get an 8 Seed, but they really should be ready to play at home on Thanksgiving weekend. If JMU can win 3 of their last 4, they should finish with a middle Seed and a first-round Bye. If they win all 4, they could be looking at a #1 or #2 (which are really the same thing here). The worst part is the 2 tough games are on the road, but the wins are definitely possible.


By the Numbers (106 total teams)...

Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/23 – 84

Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/23 – 72

Teams that have reached 6 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/23 – 12


Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 6 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 6 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 6 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.

CAA (9 Teams Alive)
Richmond – 7 wins
JMU – 6 wins
Villanova – 6 wins
Stony Brook (3)
UNH (2)
Maine (2)
Albany (2)
W&M (1)
Delaware (0) – cannot win AQ

Big Sky (10 Teams Alive)
EWU – 6 wins
North Dakota – 6 wins

Cal Poly (3)
Weber State (3)
Montana (3)
Northern Colorado (1)
Southern Utah (1)
Northern Arizona (0)
Portland State
Idaho State


Big South (6 Teams Alive)
Liberty (2)
Charleston Southern (1)
Monmouth (1) – cannot win AQ
Kennesaw State (0)
Presbyterian
Gardner-Webb


MEAC (4 Teams Alive – No AQ)
NC A&T (3)
SC State (2)
NC Central (2)
Hampton (1)

MVC (10 Teams Alive)
NDSU – 6 wins
SDSU (3)
W. Illinois (3)
Youngstown State (3)
South Dakota (2)
Indiana State (1)
No. Iowa (1)
Illinois State (0)
So. Illinois (0)
Missouri State (0)

NEC (7 Teams Alive)
Sacred Heart – 6 wins
Duquesne (2)
StFU (1)
Bryant (0)
Wagner (0)
Robert Morris
Cent. Conn. State


OVC (8 Teams Alive)
Jacksonville State (3)
Tenn. State (3)
E. Illinois (2)
Tenn.-Martin (1)
SE Missouri State (0)
Tenn. Tech (0)
Murray State (0)
EKU

Patriot League (7 Teams Alive)
Lehigh – 6 wins
Fordham (2)
Georgetown (2)
Bucknell (1)
Colgate (0)
Holy Cross (0)
Lafayette

Pioneer League (7 Teams Alive)
Dayton (2)
San Diego (2)
Marist (2)
Stetson (1)
Drake (0)
Campbell
Valparaiso


SoCon (8 Teams Alive)
Chatty – 6 wins
Citadel – 6 wins

Samford (3)
Mercer (2)
Wofford (1)
VMI (1)
Furman
ETSU

Southland (8 Teams Alive)
Sam Houston State – 6 wins
Central Ark. – 6 wins

SE Louisiana (2)
Lamar (1)
Nichols State (1)
Houston Baptist (0)
McNeese State (0)
Stephen F. Austin (0)

Must Win Out to reach 6 wins:
Delaware
Northern Arizona
Kennesaw State
Illinois State
So. Illinois
Missouri State
Bryant
Wagner
SE Missouri State
Tenn. Tech
Murray State
Colgate
Holy Cross
Drake
Houston Baptist
McNeese State
Stephen F. Austin


Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs
Savannah State (too dumb for postseason)
Florida A&M (too dumb for postseason)
Howard (too dumb for postseason)
Morgan State (too dumb for postseason)
Abilene Christian (transition to D1)
Incarnate Word (transition to D1)
Coastal Carolina (transitioning to I-A)
Towson
Elon
URI
UC Davis
Sac State
Montana State
Norfolk State
Bethune-Cookman
Delaware State
Austin Peay
Butler
Morehead State
Davidson
W. Carolina
NW State


Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
Sam Houston State
Citadel

Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Delaware State
Austin Peay
Mississippi Valley State


Conference Analysis

CAA – This year, the CAA is a conference of the haves and the have-nots. Of the 12 teams in the conference, six of them have 3 or 4 conference wins while the other six teams have 0 or 1 – there is no in-between. Typically, this means the top teams still need to face each other, and that is the case this year. The top teams each have at least one game left against another top team, and Maine still has 3 more left. In a conference where it is not unheard of to get 5 teams in the playoffs, the pressure will be on to avoid being the last team out.

Big Sky – There are three teams still undefeated in the conference, so most of the focus is going to be on them. North Dakota sits at 5-0 (in conference) while EWU and Weber State are 4-0. EWU does not play North Dakota or Weber, so it is possible for the Big Sky to have 2 undefeated teams when all is said and done. The big game next weekend will be between North Dakota and Weber. Weber's wins have been very close – even to bad opponents – so I would think North Dakota will be favored to win at home. The thing that surprised me the most when I looked at the Big Sky was how bad Montana State has become. I'm used to them competing for the conference title, but that definitely won't happen this year.

Big South – With only six teams left in the Big South (Coastal Carolina is now an Independent as they transition), there is little room for error when going for the AQ. Three conference losses will automatically eliminate a team, which is why Monmouth is already out. Looking at the weak schedules of most of the teams in the Big South, Charleston Southern looks to be the only one that should be considered for an At-Large bid if they don't get the AQ. However, that should only happen if the only remaining game they lose is the one against Liberty.

MEAC – The MEAC has no AQ, and with the conference winner playing the SWAC winner in their own “bowl” game, the only way a team can make the playoffs is to have a great resume but finish in 2nd place. To make things easier for me, the 4 middle teams in the conference are all ineligible for any postseason play due to low academics, so there really are only 4 teams to pay attention to. Looking at the schedules of those teams, the only one that could possibly be in the playoff picture is NC A&T due to their win over I-A Kent State. For everyone else, their wins are against HBCUs or D2 teams – which is not impressive enough.

MVC – Once again, it looks like the MVC is the strongest conference in I-AA. Not only are all of the teams technically still alive for their AQ, but they could all still reach 6 wins. (And their schedules are not as loaded with cupcakes as other teams tend to do.) With all of the wins these teams have racked up (including 4 against I-A teams), I would be very surprised to see the MVC to get less than 5 teams in the playoffs this year.

NEC – It's really too early to tell what will happen with this conference since they basically just started conference play. No one looks to be a candidate for an At Large, so winning the AQ will be everything.

OVC – The OVC continues to annoy me by not requiring all of their teams to play the full 8-game conference schedule. This year, Tennessee State and Jacksonville State will only play 7 OVC games – which could be a huge factor in who gets the AQ since both of those teams are near the top. (Tennessee State has always been the common factor in this anomaly, so there must be a clause that allows them to play 3 HBCU games and a I-A game, but it really can mess things up. Anyway, there are a lot of teams in contention for the AQ, but since a number of teams actually started their conference schedule earlier than usual, we will have a clearer picture next week.

Patriot – Right now there are only 2 teams with overall winning records and most of those wins were against the Ivy League. The conference schedule is just beginning, but in terms of At-Large possibilities, the only team that I could see being eligible would be Lehigh – and only if they tie for the conference lead with Fordham at 5-1. (Even then, they would be a clear bubble team.)

Pioneer – A one-bid league, the conference AQ could be decided next week when the top 2 teams (San Diego and Marist) face each other. None of the teams have a good OOC win, since they play a lot of lower division teams. The most interesting thing about this conference is that San Diego will actually play a Mexican college team this year. I had no idea there were college football teams in Mexico. (And, unlike the Pioneer teams, they even offer scholarships!)

SoCon – The top 3 teams (Chatty, Citadel, and Samford) have a decent number of wins, but keep in mind they still have their usual late-season SEC games still. All three of them are likely to pick up at least one more loss, if not two. The Citadel has already beaten Chatty, so they will be looking to bolster their AQ chances on 11/5 when they face Samford – that could decide it all. There will likely be at least 2 teams in the playoffs coming from the SoCon, so even being eliminated from the AQ doesn't make a team any less dangerous.

Southland – Usually, Sam Houston starts slow and builds to the end of the season. Not this year. They have yet to score fewer than 38 points in a game and remain undefeated overall. Are they truly the best in the division? We will see, but know that none of their D1 opponents so far have a winning record. And while their offense has been doing great, their defense has only given up less than 21 points once. Their last game of the year against Central Arkansas looks to be their only tough game left – that will probably decide the AQ, but I do expect Sam Houston to be in the playoffs regardless.
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2016 05:08 PM by NH/JMU Saxkow.)
10-24-2016 12:46 AM
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Potomac Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
1) Until the committee shows that they will add a 2nd place MEAC team as an at-large, I don't think it's unreasonable to exclude them from a playoff field.
2) I believe it is as follows for JMU:
8-0 in CAA, top 4 seed
7-1 in CAA, 5-8 seed
6-2 in CAA, playoff berth but playing in the 1st round, no seed.

I don't think a top 2 seed is guaranteed if we finish 8-0. We don't have an FBS win and we need about 4-5 teams ahead of us in the rankings to keep losing. We're only 6/7 in the rankings and you'd have to assume those teams will be favored over us if they also win out.
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2016 06:53 AM by Potomac.)
10-24-2016 06:50 AM
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Potomac Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
I would say that the precedent has been set for a 6 win MVFC team to make the field, but until it happens consistently elsewhere, other conferences should still be expected to be a minimum of 7 wins for consideration. I'd say WIU last year was an exception, not a norm.

Additionally, Abilene Christian got their first win this past week and is not winless anymore.
10-24-2016 07:03 AM
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jmu007 Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
(10-24-2016 06:50 AM)Potomac Wrote:  1) Until the committee shows that they will add a 2nd place MEAC team as an at-large, I don't think it's unreasonable to exclude them from a playoff field.
2) I believe it is as follows for JMU:
8-0 in CAA, top 4 seed
7-1 in CAA, 5-8 seed
6-2 in CAA, playoff berth but playing in the 1st round, no seed.

I don't think a top 2 seed is guaranteed if we finish 8-0. We don't have an FBS win and we need about 4-5 teams ahead of us in the rankings to keep losing. We're only 6/7 in the rankings and you'd have to assume those teams will be favored over us if they also win out.

In regards to a top seed. I believe we win out on SoS should we go 8-0 in CAA play. That would mean wins over UR and Nova on the road. If that doesn't merit a top seed nothing does.
10-24-2016 07:08 AM
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Potomac Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
(10-24-2016 07:08 AM)jmu007 Wrote:  In regards to a top seed. I believe we win out on SoS should we go 8-0 in CAA play. That would mean wins over UR and Nova on the road. If that doesn't merit a top seed nothing does.

Current teams ahead of us in the coaches and stats polls:
1 - Sam Houston State: semifinalists last year. consistent playoff success over the last decade. currently undefeated. The SLC is weak but the committee has proven they love undefeated teams, regardless of who they played. No marquee wins though and no FBS game. It's going to be hard to deny the current unanimous #1 a top 2 seed.

2 - Jacksonville State: national runner-up last year. undefeated against FCS. They play in an even weaker conference than SHSU in all likelihood. They have two marquee OOC wins against CCU and Liberty.

3 - Eastern Washington: Didn't make the 2015 playoffs. current Big Sky leader of a strong conference. They have an FBS win over Washington State which is probably the second biggest FBS upset other than NDSU beating Iowa. Their lone loss was in OT to NDSU and they also beat UNI. Their SOS is a bit better than ours, ranked 2nd in FCS right now.

4 - North Dakota State: 5-time champions. That's about all that needs to be said. They would need to lose one more game for an undefeated in CAA JMU to leap frog them.


The following are ahead of us in the Stats poll only:
5 - The Citadel: 2015 2nd round playoff appearance. They are undefeated and are running through the 2nd ranked FCS conference in the SoCon (according to sagarin).

6 - Richmond: Obviously not worth mentioning in this hypothetical situation where we beat them head to head. Semifinalists in the 2015 playoffs.

7 - South Dakota State: 2015 1st round playoff appearance. They are the lone remaining undefeated in MVFC play and since this is the top ranked FCS conference, they will without question be placed before us for a top 2 seed.


There is still a lot of football left to be played, but the 4-7 teams ranked ahead of us all have more of a claim to a top seed over us at this time.
10-24-2016 07:37 AM
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Lwflyrod Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
(10-24-2016 07:37 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(10-24-2016 07:08 AM)jmu007 Wrote:  In regards to a top seed. I believe we win out on SoS should we go 8-0 in CAA play. That would mean wins over UR and Nova on the road. If that doesn't merit a top seed nothing does.

Current teams ahead of us in the coaches and stats polls:
1 - Sam Houston State: semifinalists last year. consistent playoff success over the last decade. currently undefeated. The SLC is weak but the committee has proven they love undefeated teams, regardless of who they played. No marquee wins though and no FBS game. It's going to be hard to deny the current unanimous #1 a top 2 seed.

2 - Jacksonville State: national runner-up last year. undefeated against FCS. They play in an even weaker conference than SHSU in all likelihood. They have two marquee OOC wins against CCU and Liberty.

3 - Eastern Washington: Didn't make the 2015 playoffs. current Big Sky leader of a strong conference. They have an FBS win over Washington State which is probably the second biggest FBS upset other than NDSU beating Iowa. Their lone loss was in OT to NDSU and they also beat UNI. Their SOS is a bit better than ours, ranked 2nd in FCS right now.

4 - North Dakota State: 5-time champions. That's about all that needs to be said. They would need to lose one more game for an undefeated in CAA JMU to leap frog them.


The following are ahead of us in the Stats poll only:
5 - The Citadel: 2015 2nd round playoff appearance. They are undefeated and are running through the 2nd ranked FCS conference in the SoCon (according to sagarin).

6 - Richmond: Obviously not worth mentioning in this hypothetical situation where we beat them head to head. Semifinalists in the 2015 playoffs.

7 - South Dakota State: 2015 1st round playoff appearance. They are the lone remaining undefeated in MVFC play and since this is the top ranked FCS conference, they will without question be placed before us for a top 2 seed.


There is still a lot of football left to be played, but the 4-7 teams ranked ahead of us all have more of a claim to a top seed over us at this time.

Assuming JMU wins out. Based on what Potomac just stated, I honestly (and it saddens me) can't see JMU getting a 1-4 seed if those listed 1-4 end up winning out. A loss to one of those does open the door. IF and thats a HUGE IF we win out. (defense will really need to gel and step up for us to win out. DOABLE YES, Likely no 03-weeping)
I guess the biggest question remains what 5-8 seed do we end up with?
And which side of the bracket for our chances at a DEEP RUN or a chance to play for NC.
10-24-2016 08:39 AM
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jmu007 Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
I believe we would be able to crack the top 4, maybe top 3, but Potomac's post definitely dims my hopes a bit too due to EWU and NDSU. I believe we could jump both Jacksonville St and SHSU, but not those other 2. Maybe I'm just being too optimistic, but I feel like they've shown in years past that going undefeated vs a garbage schedule buys a seed, not necessarily and top 4 seed. I guess we'll see how things shake out.
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2016 08:47 AM by jmu007.)
10-24-2016 08:46 AM
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ShadyP Online
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
Thanks for posting, I always look forward to the breakdown you provide each week come late October.
10-24-2016 09:15 AM
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DUKES DUKES DUKES Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
(10-24-2016 09:15 AM)ShadyP Wrote:  Thanks for posting, I always look forward to the breakdown you provide each week come late October.

We have too good of a team and the best coaches, we will win out!
Think positive. What's the chant - We believe!!!!
10-24-2016 09:18 AM
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BDKJMU Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
FWIW last year teams in:
-MVFC: 5
-CAA: 4
-Big Sky: 3
-So Con: 2
-Southland: 2
-OVC: 2
-Big South: 2
-Patriot: 2
-NEC: 1
-Pioneer: 1

This is what I'm thinking it will about be this season:
-MVFC: 4
-CAA: 4
-Big Sky: 4
-So Con: 3
-Southland: 2
-OVC: 2
-Big South: 1
-Patriot: 1
-NEC: 1
-Pioneer: 1

Thats 23 teams, so 1 more thrown in somewhere (5th MVFC, CAA, or Big Sky, 4th So-Con, 2nd Patriot or Big South)..
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2016 09:54 AM by BDKJMU.)
10-24-2016 09:52 AM
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PurpleStreamers Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
Thanks as always Saxkow.

NCAT would be a really interesting test-case if they stumble and don't win the MEAC cause they're pretty legit this year and with a player like RB Tarik Cohen it would be fun to see them in the tourney. But barring an enormous upset, they're running the table in the MEAC and no one else would even sniff a bid.

I hope BDK is right about the bids-by-conference breakdown, but the Committee loves to spread the love to Big South and Patriot, ugh.
10-24-2016 11:21 AM
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
The teams we're likely to be competing with a seed have some tough games remaining on their schedule. Jacksonville State is very likely to run the table but the rest of the teams have games that they could easily drop.

Sam Houston State: Texas Southern, McNeese State, @Northwestern St, Central Arkansas

Jacksonville State: Eastern Illinois, @Southeast Missouri, @Murray State, UT Martin

Eastern Washington: Montana, @Cal Poly, Idaho St, @Portland St

North Dakota State: @Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, Indiana State, @South Dakota

Citadel: ETSU, Samford, @VMI, @UNC

Richmond: JMU, Delaware, @W&M

South Dakota State: @Illinois State, Missouri State, South Dakota, @Northern Iowa
10-24-2016 11:25 AM
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Potomac Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
Of the seven teams ahead of us in the rankings, at least two of them will drop one remaining game. I can almost guarantee that. The question is can we also not drop a game ourselves. The UR game couldn't be more massive. Make or break point for the postseason set up and a chance to put their sorry asses in their place for that bull**** last year.
10-24-2016 12:12 PM
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
(10-24-2016 09:15 AM)ShadyP Wrote:  Thanks for posting, I always look forward to the breakdown you provide each week come late October.

+1 !!!!!!!!!!!
10-24-2016 01:13 PM
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
yes, good stuff. thanks!
10-24-2016 01:21 PM
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JMU_71 Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
Another good breakdown Sax. Thanks for putting in the time and effort.
10-24-2016 01:29 PM
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
Sax

Many thanks for taking the time each season to do this. Us fans appreciate the concise and easy to read info.

Brian
10-24-2016 02:06 PM
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
Saxkow

Thanks for taking the time to research and provide us all with the information to more easily track the possible playoff teams and scenarios.

If JMU runs the tables they will be a top 4 seed. That is going to be tough to achieve but I'm optimistic.
10-24-2016 02:51 PM
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
I'm surprised some FCS writer hasn't come to their senses and offered you a standing gig to just copy paste this great info.
10-24-2016 03:15 PM
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BDKJMU Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 10/23/16
(10-24-2016 12:12 PM)Potomac Wrote:  Of the seven teams ahead of us in the rankings, at least two of them will drop one remaining game. I can almost guarantee that. The question is can we also not drop a game ourselves. The UR game couldn't be more massive. Make or break point for the postseason set up and a chance to put their sorry asses in their place for that bull**** last year.

They don't do the seeds acording to the polls, so I wouln't worry about what the polls say. An example of that would be from 2 years ago. I dug up an old post of mine on cs from then:
"I said it after the playoff field was announced. NDSU should have been the #1 seed and UNH #2.

NDSU 11-1/7-1, thumped a bad Big-12, 3-1 vs playoff teams (played 3 of 4 MVFC playoffs teams, ironically only dnp Il St, beat Montana OOC).

UNH 10-1/8-0, got thumped by a MAC team, 1-0 vs playoff teams (beat UR, the 2 CAA teams they missed were Villanova and JMU."

Someone pointed out that that comittee gave a lot of credit to finishing 8-0 in one of the top conferences and thats why they seeded UNH #1 over NDSU (NDSU was #1 in the polls at the time).

The last 3 teams to finish 8-0 in CAA play:
2006 UMass #3 seed
2008 JMU #1 seed
2014 UNH #1 seed
10-24-2016 04:47 PM
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