Race for the G5 Access Spot
1 -Boise St. Odds on favorite. Should go 12-0, Just win CCG vs likely San Diego St and the Cotton Belongs to them.

2 -WMU - Should also go 12-0, but will probably need Boise St to lose in CCG. Otherwise, $10 Gift Card for Drug Store as G5 Runner-Up.

3 -AAC - Multiple teams hoping to get in but need losses above and to ensure champ does not have two losses. It appears a lot of chances to eat your own in the 2nd half of the season.

4. Troy - the true Cinderella team. Could finish 11-1 and Sun Belt Champ. There only loss was by 6pts, at that time #2 Clemson and likely CFP team. Remember only committees consider a good vs bad loss.

5. CUSA - The were already in the Morgue waiting for the body to be claimed back in August.

(10-21-2016 09:43 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Race for the G5 Access Spot
1 -Boise St. Odds on favorite. Should go 12-0, Just win CCG vs likely San Diego St and the Cotton Belongs to them.

2 -WMU - Should also go 12-0, but will probably need Boise St to lose in CCG. Otherwise, $10 Gift Card for Drug Store as G5 Runner-Up.

3 -AAC - Multiple teams hoping to get in but need losses above and to ensure champ does not have two losses. It appears a lot of chances to eat your own in the 2nd half of the season.

4. Troy - the true Cinderella team. Could finish 11-1 and Sun Belt Champ. There only loss was by 6pts, at that time #2 Clemson and likely CFP team. Remember only committees consider a good vs bad loss.

5. CUSA - The were already in the Morgue waiting for the body to be claimed back in August.

This will always be a problem for the AAC. Traditionally it didn't have a dominant team once Miami left. It will be a strong conference from top to (almost) bottom without a true NC candidate. The American champion really really needs to win out, and hope that Boise loses in the MWC Championship game.

If Houston wins out and gets the AAC title, they're going to be very tough to beat, even over 13-0 Boise. Wins over Oklahoma and Louisville would blow the doors off of any thing Boise could do. Not a thing that Boise or WMU can do about it quite frankly.

Row the Boat! Go WMU!

(10-21-2016 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If Houston wins out and gets the AAC title, they're going to be very tough to beat, even over 13-0 Boise. Wins over Oklahoma and Louisville would blow the doors off of any thing Boise could do. Not a thing that Boise or WMU can do about it quite frankly.

Houston can win out and still not be eligible for the access spot

(10-21-2016 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If Houston wins out and gets the AAC title, they're going to be very tough to beat, even over 13-0 Boise. Wins over Oklahoma and Louisville would blow the doors off of any thing Boise could do. Not a thing that Boise or WMU can do about it quite frankly.

An AAC champ Houston versus an unbeaten Boise would make for a very interesting discussion at the final CFP conference.

I would bet on Boise getting the nod, but it would be very close and could easily go Houston's way. Tough to top "unbeaten".

It will be interesting to see the application of SOS when the first rankings come out that really matter. I think there will be some surprises that show not just wins & losses but who those wins & losses are against.

(10-21-2016 10:38 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If Houston wins out and gets the AAC title, they're going to be very tough to beat, even over 13-0 Boise. Wins over Oklahoma and Louisville would blow the doors off of any thing Boise could do. Not a thing that Boise or WMU can do about it quite frankly.

Houston can win out and still not be eligible for the access spot

They might not be eligible, but likely will.

USF will be favored to beat Navy, and Memphis might even beat Navy. If there is a 3 way tie or Navy loses twice, expect Houston to go.

Also, a 12-1 USF that has defeated an 11-1 Houston (who in turn defeated Oklahoma and Louisville) ranked in the top 10 would jump WMU. Not sure about Boise, but probably not.

AAC champ is totally in the thick of race right now, and I would say has upper hand on Western Michigan, unless AAC champ has 2 losses.

(10-21-2016 10:38 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If Houston wins out and gets the AAC title, they're going to be very tough to beat, even over 13-0 Boise. Wins over Oklahoma and Louisville would blow the doors off of any thing Boise could do. Not a thing that Boise or WMU can do about it quite frankly.

Houston can win out and still not be eligible for the access spot

true. But if Memphis or Tulsa beats Navy, and they win out along with Houston, Houston would win the 3 way tiebreaker, and get in.

(10-21-2016 09:43 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Race for the G5 Access Spot
1 -Boise St. Odds on favorite. Should go 12-0, Just win CCG vs likely San Diego St and the Cotton Belongs to them.

2 -WMU - Should also go 12-0, but will probably need Boise St to lose in CCG. Otherwise, $10 Gift Card for Drug Store as G5 Runner-Up.

3 -AAC - Multiple teams hoping to get in but need losses above and to ensure champ does not have two losses. It appears a lot of chances to eat your own in the 2nd half of the season.

4. Troy - the true Cinderella team. Could finish 11-1 and Sun Belt Champ. There only loss was by 6pts, at that time #2 Clemson and likely CFP team. Remember only committees consider a good vs bad loss.

5. CUSA - The were already in the Morgue waiting for the body to be claimed back in August.

Yes, but with 4 1 loss teams, also a lot of chances to have one of them finish with one loss.

Troy won't sniff CFP bowl due to SOS, unless all the other champs have at least 2 losses.

(10-21-2016 10:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If Houston wins out and gets the AAC title, they're going to be very tough to beat, even over 13-0 Boise. Wins over Oklahoma and Louisville would blow the doors off of any thing Boise could do. Not a thing that Boise or WMU can do about it quite frankly.

An AAC champ Houston versus an unbeaten Boise would make for a very interesting discussion at the final CFP conference.

I would bet on Boise getting the nod, but it would be very close and could easily go Houston's way. Tough to top "unbeaten".

it wouldn't be all that close even. Unbeaten just does not mean as much today as it used to.

If Houston beats Louisville and they win the AAC they're in. With two losses I think an undefeated Boise or WMU gets the nod. Either way they need Navy to falter.

(10-21-2016 10:47 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  If Houston beats Louisville and they win the AAC they're in. With two losses I think an undefeated Boise or WMU gets the nod. Either way they need Navy to falter.

Navy needs to lose twice in conference.

(10-21-2016 10:49 AM)megadrone Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 10:47 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  If Houston beats Louisville and they win the AAC they're in. With two losses I think an undefeated Boise or WMU gets the nod. Either way they need Navy to falter.

Navy needs to lose twice in conference.

not necessarily. If Navy loses to Memphis and Houston beats Memphis- it's a 3 way tie. with everyone at 7-1. Houston would have the advantage there if they win out including Louisville as they would be 11-1, Memphis would be 11-1, and Navy would have 2 losses.

(10-21-2016 10:49 AM)megadrone Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 10:47 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  If Houston beats Louisville and they win the AAC they're in. With two losses I think an undefeated Boise or WMU gets the nod. Either way they need Navy to falter.

Navy needs to lose twice in conference.

I think if they can force a 3 way tie with Memphis they could get in with Navy having only one loss.

Memphis beats Navy, Houston beats Memphis. I'm not sure what the tiebreaker's are after head to head. Maybe ranking?

Before you go anointing Boise, remember that they have to play BYU and then Wyoming (which has beaten CO St and Air Force), and then later in the year play Air Force.

(10-21-2016 10:53 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  I'm not sure what the tiebreaker's are after head to head. Maybe ranking?

From the AAC website.

CFP rankings are the 6th tiebreaker on the list. The 5th tiebreaker is overall record. Houston would win that 5th tiebreaker in any 3 team tie for 1st if they finish 11-1, because every other team in their division has at least one non-conference loss.

Quote:In the event of a multiple-team tie within a division, the following tiebreaker criteria will be used, in order:
· Head-to-head record against the tied teams
· Divisional winning percentage
· Record against each team in the divisional standings, in descending order
· Record against common non-divisional conference opponents
· Overall winning percentage
· Most recent College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings (provided the highest-ranked team won its final game)
· Average of selected computer rankings

If, at any point during the tiebreaker process, the criteria eliminates all but two teams, the two remaining teams would revert to the two-team tiebreaking procedure to determine the representative.

If Houston and Boise St. both win out - regardless of whether Houston wins the AAC title, the Cotton Bowl could easily be Boise St. v. Houston. In fact, I would expect it. One would get the G5 access bid and the other would be an at large selection.

(10-21-2016 11:23 AM)YNot Wrote:  If Houston and Boise St. both win out - regardless of whether Houston wins the AAC title, the Cotton Bowl could easily be Boise St. v. Houston. In fact, I would expect it. One would get the G5 access bid and the other would be an at large selection.

yeah that's a pretty fair point. The Nebraska/Wisconsin loser would be right now the team in competition with Houston/Boise for that slot. You would have WVU/Baylor/Oklahoma loser, Florida St, Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee challenging as well. I don't know that I'd say I'd expect it- but it is very realistic.

If Baylor goes 11-1 losing only to 12-0 WV, I think they'll go to the Cotton over 11-1 Houston.