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So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
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HHOOTter Offline
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Post: #61
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
(10-18-2016 10:29 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I think it is funny so many people want to imagine that the SEC will take the leftovers, as if we nee or have to.

IF Big 12 broke up
For what it’s worth;
Robert Allen, Long time Okie St Sports journalist
Claims; OSU/OU have “standing” offer from SEC
Bama/Auburn have agreed to move to the East side
IF OU/OSU are added & Mizzu moves back to the West

What’s in the Best interest for OU/Tex?
If the $$$ can B made,
They would rather stay
Big 12 is where they want 2 play
They loose their “power” influential card
IF they move 2 another conference

B4 Big 12 breaks up
U can guarantee that
Both the AD’s @ OU/Tex
Will B Soliciting P5 schools
w/ network/cable/$$$$ projections
2 entice schools 2 consider joining Big 12

(Note: of the top 10 most watch regular season college football games in 2015
NONE involved a Big 12 Team)

So is Big 12 bye bye in 8 yrs?
Texas pulling a Notre Dame deal w/ ACC
U ‘thunk Kansas B-ball revenue
would entice some conference 2 take them
Religious private schools TCU/Baylor could get passed by
Anyone’s guess IF T Tech/K St/I St/ WVU would even get picked up
(This post was last modified: 10-18-2016 10:54 AM by HHOOTter.)
10-18-2016 10:44 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #62
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
I would think the SEC would be more interested in TCU than Baylor. In the other big Texas market, opposite the one they already have a good foothold in (Houston with TA&M). And obviously much less baggage.

Texas to the PAC -- only if the PAC gives up on the P12N, and/or if they convert the P12N into an association of school networks (like the LHN) with a website and some talk shows, but all game content on the school networks. Texas will never give up the LHN to share its money with schools like Washington St and Oregon St.


Kansas isn't welcome in the Big Ten. Far too red political culture and not nearly large enough population/cable subscribers. UConn is a much better target for a big time bball brand. Big Ten wants to focus on the Great Lakes + Northeast, anyway. Kansas is well outside that footprint (not that Nebraska is in it ... smh).
10-18-2016 10:53 AM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #63
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
(10-18-2016 10:44 AM)HHOOTter Wrote:  
(10-18-2016 10:29 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I think it is funny so many people want to imagine that the SEC will take the leftovers, as if we nee or have to.

IF Big 12 broke up
For what it’s worth;
Robert Allen, Long time Okie St Sports journalist
Claims; OSU/OU have “standing” offer from SEC
Bama/Auburn have agreed to move to the East side
IF OU/OSU are added & Mizzu moves back to the West

What’s in the Best interest for OU/Tex?
If the $$$ can B made,
They would rather stay
Big 12 is where they want 2 play
They loose their “power” influential card
IF they move 2 another conference

B4 Big 12 breaks up
U can guarantee that
Both the AD’s @ OU/Tex
Will B Soliciting P5 schools
w/ network/cable/$$$$ projections
2 entice schools 2 consider joining Big 12

Otherwise u might see
Texas pulling a Notre Dame deal w/ ACC
U ‘thunk Kansas B-ball revenue
would entice some conference 2 take them
Religious private schools TCU/Baylor could get passed by
Anyone’s guess IF T Tech/K St/I St/ WVU would even get picked up

I don't think they get a deal like ND. ACC is gambling on ND realizing, independent going 12-0 is going to get harder and harder. I think they will work a do some sweet heart incentives to get ND and Texas to join but eventually they all get back to equal revenue. IE: Waive joining fee and get full payout immediately.
10-18-2016 10:57 AM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #64
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
(10-18-2016 10:53 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  I would think the SEC would be more interested in TCU than Baylor. In the other big Texas market, opposite the one they already have a good foothold in (Houston with TA&M). And obviously much less baggage.

Texas to the PAC -- only if the PAC gives up on the P12N, and/or if they convert the P12N into an association of school networks (like the LHN) with a website and some talk shows, but all game content on the school networks. Texas will never give up the LHN to share its money with schools like Washington St and Oregon St.


Kansas isn't welcome in the Big Ten. Far too red political culture and not nearly large enough population/cable subscribers. UConn is a much better target for a big time bball brand. Big Ten wants to focus on the Great Lakes + Northeast, anyway. Kansas is well outside that footprint (not that Nebraska is in it ... smh).

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10-18-2016 11:02 AM
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HawkeyeCoug Offline
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Post: #65
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
(10-17-2016 10:40 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(10-17-2016 10:13 PM)texcane1982 Wrote:  Oklahoma and Kansas to Big Ten
- The Big Ten has already vetted these 2 schools, they want no part of UT politics, and the Big Ten Presidents are reported to show a willingness to relax on the AAU membership for the right school.

Reported by whom? Link?

As a general statement, I think it's clearly valid, since they'd take Notre Dame in a hot New York second, but it's not automatic that Oklahoma is "the right school" Pretty sure that Big Ten AD's would vote overwhelmingly for the add, but it's Big Ten Presidents doing the vote.

One of the biggest factors, of course, if Oklahoma support in Texas, opening some profile in Texas without the headaches of working with UTexas. But UTexas / Oklahoma is a lot more plausible pair for getting Oklahoma into the Big Ten, since UTexas has a big enough footprint in enough different disciplines that having it as part of the move would mute much of the pushback against Oklahoma from power brokers on the academic side.

This is my guess - Oklahoma and UT to the Big 10 once the grant of rights ends. That would result in the Big 12 losing P5 status, and probably backfilling from the AAC and MWC. However, I doubt they would get BYU - no real upside for us. We would have the highest attendance in the conference, and would probably be able to swing a higher TV deal on our own.
10-18-2016 11:17 AM
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AntiG Offline
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Post: #66
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
(10-17-2016 09:30 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  A few thoughts:

If Texas and Oklahoma can't get along in the Big 12 how are they going to manage to work out a plan that takes them both to the Pac 16? In my mind, having them go West bring balance to College Football but as it stands right now they loathe eachother and both could make more money looking to the East in the SEC or Big 10.

If Kansas goes to the Big 10 as #15 there has to be a 16. Am I to assume that you expect # 16 to come from outside the Big 12? If the SEC were to lose Missouri in that scenario they need to add 1 or 3 schools to get to 14 or 16. With 3 openings I see them going after the ACC not the Big 12.

I also don't see a scenario where 8 schools agree to disband. The Big 12 will endure, it just won't be as grand.
Pretty sure the only way Kansas is coming to the Big 10 is if Texas or Oklahoma is coming with them. If the Big 10 wanted Kansas all this time (much like with UConn & Missouri), they'd have taken them in the past as one of the expansion grabs.
10-18-2016 11:17 AM
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Scoochpooch Offline
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Post: #67
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
(10-17-2016 09:04 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Baylor will never be in the SEC

They're gonna be in the AAC

I agree but why do you think that?
10-18-2016 11:26 AM
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Gitanole Offline
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Post: #68
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
There are many variables whose effects in the next decade we don't know. For all that, here's a guess as to how things could shake out based on what we know today.

Schools are listed in the expected order of their decision announcements.

--

Oklahoma 'We did everything we could to make it work' Sooners
B1G, possibly SEC

Kansas 'Travel Partner' Jayhawks
B1G, possibly SEC

Texas 'This wasn't our idea, but now that the Sooners are out...' Longhorns
ACC/football indy while LHN exists or B1G

Oklahoma State 'Sweating Bullets' Cowboys
Possibly SEC, probably New B12 Light

Everyone else
New B12 Light
10-18-2016 11:36 AM
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AntiG Offline
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Post: #69
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
What I think will happen:

B1G adds Oklahoma, and afterwards offers Texas an agreement where they keep LHN but take a smaller cut of the conference payouts until the LHN contract ends. Texas agrees.

The rest of the schools use the Big12 name to grab BYU + AAC schools and hope for offers from other conferences.
10-18-2016 11:36 AM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #70
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
(10-18-2016 11:26 AM)Scoochpooch Wrote:  
(10-17-2016 09:04 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Baylor will never be in the SEC

They're gonna be in the AAC

I agree but why do you think that?

The SEC will not take in a program that falls below a certain level. That level being the least competitive program in the SEC.
10-18-2016 11:39 AM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #71
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
(10-18-2016 07:31 AM)Chappy Wrote:  SEC EAST
Alabama
Auburn

Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

SEC WEST
Arkanasas
Kansas State

LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Missouri
Oklahoma State

Texas A&M

ACC (Texas and Notre Dame independent in football, now playing 6 ACC teams annually, where ACC would still use current Atlantic and Coastal divisions)
Boston College
Clemson
Duke
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Louisville
Miami
North Carolina
NC State
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Texas
Virginia Tech
Virginia
Wake Forest

B1G EAST
Indiana
Ohio State
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Northwestern
Penn State
Rutgers

B1G WEST
Iowa
Illinois
Kansas
Minnesota
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Purdue
Wisconsin

PAC 12 stays as is.

Big 12
Baylor
BYU
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Houston

Iowa State
Temple

TCU
Texas Tech
West Virginia

Never thought I'd see a day where Iowa joins the Big West. If UNLV was still playing there the hoops part of it would be enough to stomach, but now that the Runnin Rebs have left the Big West (left 20 years ago) I'm not sure that Iowa should join the Big West.
Cheers!
10-18-2016 11:46 AM
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AntiG Offline
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Post: #72
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
(10-18-2016 11:39 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  
(10-18-2016 11:26 AM)Scoochpooch Wrote:  
(10-17-2016 09:04 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Baylor will never be in the SEC

They're gonna be in the AAC

I agree but why do you think that?

The SEC will not take in a program that falls below a certain level. That level being the least competitive program in the SEC.

Baylor has always put out some great sports teams. Over the past 10 years they've been a better football program than more than half of the conference (Vanderbilt, Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri, Miss State, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee), and have strong basketball (both men's and women's). I highly doubt if they went to the SEC, they'd be close to the least competitive program in the conference.
10-18-2016 11:47 AM
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HawkeyeCoug Offline
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Post: #73
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
BYU is not going to join a Big 12 that doesn't have Oklahoma and Texas. Why would we join without those two? We would have higher attendance than any remaining team, and there is no way such a conference would keep P5 status. Makes no sense at all.

Can anyone come up with any kind of reason why BYU would join the Big 12 after Texas and Oklahoma leave?
10-18-2016 11:51 AM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #74
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
B1G EAST
Indiana
Ohio State
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Northwestern
Penn State
Rutgers

B1G WEST
Iowa
Illinois
Kansas
Minnesota
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Purdue
Wisconsin

You have Northwestern in your Big 10 East and Purdue in your Big 10 West. Look at a map and you will see Illinois (Northwestern) is west of Indiana (Purdue)
Cheers!
10-18-2016 11:54 AM
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Post: #75
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
(10-17-2016 10:13 PM)texcane1982 Wrote:  
(10-17-2016 08:53 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  By 2026, I'll go with ...

Leaving ...
Texas: Pac-16
Oklahoma: Pac-16
Texas Tech: Pac-16
Oklahoma State: Pac-16
Kansas: Big Ten
Baylor: SEC
West Virginia: SEC

Staying ...
TCU: Big 12
Iowa State: Big 12
Kansas State: Big 12

Joining ...
Boise State
BYU
Colorado State
Houston
New Mexico
Rice
San Diego State
SMU
UNLV

And 2016's other Big 12 expansion candidates, per ESPN ...

Air Force: American or watered-down MWC
Central Florida: Reconfigured ACC
Cincinnati: Reconfigured ACC
Connecticut: Reconfigured ACC
South Florida: Reconfigured ACC
Tulane: American

I don't see another major shift happening. The Big Ten seems to be the only conference in a financial and geographic position to add more members and receive significant financial gains. The SEC borders are locked, and the ACC is already watered down, so no significant financial gain to be had with further expansion within the current SEC or ACC footprints. The PAC-12 viewership is struggling both inside and outside their footprint, and the conference does not appear to be in a position to expand further, it's Oklahoma or Texas or nothing for PAC-12.

Oklahoma and Kansas to Big Ten
- The Big Ten has already vetted these 2 schools, they want no part of UT politics, and the Big Ten Presidents are reported to show a willingness to relax on the AAU membership for the right school. The trade-off of having 2 football powers such as Oklahoma and Nebraska is worth the sacrifice of requiring AAU membership, both institutions perform their fair share of research. The rekindling of the OU/NU rivalry outweighs AAU politics and brings a nice revenue increase from the TV partners. The Big Ten locks up the remaining major TV market bordering SEC territory, the only available market that would add value to the SEC, Kansas City and the entire state of Kansas. The Oklahoma brand name far outweighs the small market penetration, (i.e. - Nebraska). The SEC has strong interest in Oklahoma, but the Oklahoma Board of Regents do not see the culture of the SEC as a good fit.

The University of Texas is NOT giving up the LHN, the national exposure the network has provided is far too valuable! UT will not part-ways with the LHN for any conference invite, PAC, Big Ten, ACC, nada. With Oklahoma moving onto greener pastures, UT's reaction is football independence, similar to how BYU reacted when Utah was invited to the PAC-12.

Texas Football goes Independent
- Texas negotiates an extension on the LHN, a deal that exceeds what NBC pays Notre Dame, likely just over $20 mil. annual, certainly more than the Big 12 will receive without OU and UT in fold.

- Texas Olympic Sports stay in the Big 12 with a football scheduling agreement. Texas gets a nice cut of the new Big 12 TV deal for the football scheduling agreement and what the school branding brings as an Olympic sport members. Texas likely works a deal to retain broadcast rights more than 50% of Big 12 home basketball games on the LHN.

The Big 12 continues to favor the 10-member model and only replaces the 3 departing members.

BYU to Big 12
Colorado State to Big 12
Houston to Big 12

UTEP to Mountain West

Army to American (football only)

- AAC basketball drops to 10 members.

- The AAC loses value adding Rice in place of Houston, the logical move to maintain or increase value is by adding a nationally recognized program, and by 2026, Army likely sees the benefits of joining the AAC.

That's the way I see it from everything i've read since the last major shift in 2010.


TX

TexCane that is an excellent, well thought out post. You bring up a good point about Texas going Indy and working a Notre Dame type deal with the remaining Big12, if OU and KU go to the Big10.

Many have suggested that Texas might go Indy and work a Notre Dame type deal with the ACC. IMO that will never, ever happen. Austin, Texas is way too far from the East coast to do that. The travel would be awful for their other sports teams. Texas does not have to settle for anything and they would not settle for that.

The current Big12 would never accept such a deal from Texas, BUT with OU and KU gone the remaining teams probably would.

Thanks for an intelligent well thought out post.
(This post was last modified: 10-18-2016 11:58 AM by SMUmustangs.)
10-18-2016 11:55 AM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #76
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
(10-18-2016 11:51 AM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  BYU is not going to join a Big 12 that doesn't have Oklahoma and Texas. Why would we join without those two? We would have higher attendance than any remaining team, and there is no way such a conference would keep P5 status. Makes no sense at all.

Can anyone come up with any kind of reason why BYU would join the Big 12 after Texas and Oklahoma leave?

Because BYU needs to join a conference and would take a big 12 invite no matter what. But don't worry, the 8 schools left behind in the big 12 after OU & UT left would never invite BYU anyway. Nothing to worry about.
Cheers!
10-18-2016 11:57 AM
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HawkeyeCoug Offline
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Post: #77
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
(10-18-2016 11:57 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(10-18-2016 11:51 AM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  BYU is not going to join a Big 12 that doesn't have Oklahoma and Texas. Why would we join without those two? We would have higher attendance than any remaining team, and there is no way such a conference would keep P5 status. Makes no sense at all.

Can anyone come up with any kind of reason why BYU would join the Big 12 after Texas and Oklahoma leave?

Because BYU needs to join a conference and would take a big 12 invite no matter what. But don't worry, the 8 schools left behind in the big 12 after OU & UT left would never invite BYU anyway. Nothing to worry about.
Cheers!

Why does BYU need to "join a conference"? We are getting more money from Independence than we would from a G5 conference, and we would have higher football attendance than the remaining 8 - not exactly a position of weakness. We turned down the Big East when they were in a similar spot, why would we jump in with the remaining 8? (Incidentally, since the Big East invited us, you can be sure the remaining 8 would invite us as well) I would like us to join a P5 conference, but what would we get out of a G5 conference?

P5 > Independence > G5
10-18-2016 12:08 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #78
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
(10-18-2016 12:08 PM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  
(10-18-2016 11:57 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(10-18-2016 11:51 AM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  BYU is not going to join a Big 12 that doesn't have Oklahoma and Texas. Why would we join without those two? We would have higher attendance than any remaining team, and there is no way such a conference would keep P5 status. Makes no sense at all.

Can anyone come up with any kind of reason why BYU would join the Big 12 after Texas and Oklahoma leave?

Because BYU needs to join a conference and would take a big 12 invite no matter what. But don't worry, the 8 schools left behind in the big 12 after OU & UT left would never invite BYU anyway. Nothing to worry about.
Cheers!

Why does BYU need to "join a conference"? We are getting more money from Independence than we would from a G5 conference, and we would have higher football attendance than the remaining 8 - not exactly a position of weakness. We turned down the Big East when they were in a similar spot, why would we jump in with the remaining 8? (Incidentally, since the Big East invited us, you can be sure the remaining 8 would invite us as well) I would like us to join a P5 conference, but what would we get out of a G5 conference?

P5 > Independence > G5

Kinda the spot BYU has to be in. You can't accept forever being below Utah so you have to pretend to be on par with them as an independent until that magical P5 invite comes.
10-18-2016 12:18 PM
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Post: #79
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
Texas-->independent
10-18-2016 12:22 PM
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firmbizzle Offline
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Post: #80
RE: So in 10 years, where do YOU expect the current Big 12 teams to be?
I think the BIG and $EC poach the ACC.
10-18-2016 12:24 PM
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