(10-17-2016 08:53 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote: By 2026, I'll go with ...
Leaving ...
Texas: Pac-16
Oklahoma: Pac-16
Texas Tech: Pac-16
Oklahoma State: Pac-16
Kansas: Big Ten
Baylor: SEC
West Virginia: SEC
Staying ...
TCU: Big 12
Iowa State: Big 12
Kansas State: Big 12
Joining ...
Boise State
BYU
Colorado State
Houston
New Mexico
Rice
San Diego State
SMU
UNLV
And 2016's other Big 12 expansion candidates, per ESPN ...
Air Force: American or watered-down MWC
Central Florida: Reconfigured ACC
Cincinnati: Reconfigured ACC
Connecticut: Reconfigured ACC
South Florida: Reconfigured ACC
Tulane: American
I don't see another major shift happening. The Big Ten seems to be the only conference in a financial and geographic position to add more members and receive significant financial gains. The SEC borders are locked, and the ACC is already watered down, so no significant financial gain to be had with further expansion within the current SEC or ACC footprints. The PAC-12 viewership is struggling both inside and outside their footprint, and the conference does not appear to be in a position to expand further, it's Oklahoma or Texas or nothing for PAC-12.
Oklahoma and Kansas to Big Ten
- The Big Ten has already vetted these 2 schools, they want no part of UT politics, and the Big Ten Presidents are reported to show a willingness to relax on the AAU membership for the right school. The trade-off of having 2 football powers such as Oklahoma and Nebraska is worth the sacrifice of requiring AAU membership, both institutions perform their fair share of research. The rekindling of the OU/NU rivalry outweighs AAU politics and brings a nice revenue increase from the TV partners. The Big Ten locks up the remaining major TV market bordering SEC territory, the only available market that would add value to the SEC, Kansas City and the entire state of Kansas. The Oklahoma brand name far outweighs the small market penetration, (i.e. - Nebraska). The SEC has strong interest in Oklahoma, but the Oklahoma Board of Regents do not see the culture of the SEC as a good fit.
The University of Texas is NOT giving up the LHN, the national exposure the network has provided is far too valuable! UT will not part-ways with the LHN for any conference invite, PAC, Big Ten, ACC, nada. With Oklahoma moving onto greener pastures, UT's reaction is football independence, similar to how BYU reacted when Utah was invited to the PAC-12.
Texas Football goes Independent
- Texas negotiates an extension on the LHN, a deal that exceeds what NBC pays Notre Dame, likely just over $20 mil. annual, certainly more than the Big 12 will receive without OU and UT in fold.
- Texas Olympic Sports stay in the Big 12 with a football scheduling agreement. Texas gets a nice cut of the new Big 12 TV deal for the football scheduling agreement and what the school branding brings as an Olympic sport members. Texas likely works a deal to retain broadcast rights more than 50% of Big 12 home basketball games on the LHN.
The Big 12 continues to favor the 10-member model and only replaces the 3 departing members.
BYU to Big 12
Colorado State to Big 12
Houston to Big 12
UTEP to Mountain West
Army to American (football only)
- AAC basketball drops to 10 members.
- The AAC loses value adding Rice in place of Houston, the logical move to maintain or increase value is by adding a nationally recognized program, and by 2026, Army likely sees the benefits of joining the AAC.
That's the way I see it from everything i've read since the last major shift in 2010.
TX