(10-18-2016 08:22 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-17-2016 08:13 PM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote: I guess I just don't think any particular pair or quartet of schools is as important as the need to add strength to that conference.
Problem is, it was never clear how adding two or four teams would 'strengthen' the conference.
The Big 12 is driven by money, specifically the concern that very shortly, the SEC and especially B1G will be making significantly more dollars.
They are correct about that, but expanding with the available candidates would do nothing to solve that problem.
We act like the Big 12 has unique issues in that regard, but in fact it is a problem they share with the PAC and ACC. Regarding the ACC, its schools are currently mollified because they are getting an ACCN. Truth is, the ACCN will probably not generate anywhere near the money that the SECN and BTN do, so it will not close the revenue gap with the B1G and SEC. But, it might, so the ACC schools are hoping for the best and willing to wait a few years until the ACCN kicks in to find out.
The PAC is a mystery. It's clear as day that their network is a failure, and they have no hope of raising B1G/SEC revenue. And yet, unlike in the Big 12 now or the ACC before the announcement of the ACCN, there is no real sense of panic about this. Grumbling, sure, but not much. Why? Maybe their isolation west of the Rockies makes them fear being raided less and also makes them not so competitive with other P5 since they don't overlap in territory. I'm not sure.
But the SEC/B1G >>> PAC/ACC/B12 revenue gap will grow, and it will sow problems.
Right, but I think that's the wrong way to look at this.
They are not going to make as much money as the SEC or the Big Ten no matter what they do. People talk about a "Power 5" or the "Big 4" (whenever people were trying to big time the ACC) or whatever they needed to say to create a narrative.
However, the truth is there is just a "Big Two" – and that's not anything new. You were talking about two conferences full of 40 and 50,000 student landgrant universities that are largely the only game in town in their respective markets.
How can you compete with that? You can't.
Obviously, you cannot let the gap get too out of hand but there is always going to be a sizable gap there for the Pac-12, the ACC, and the Big 12. The key is to make sure that you keep the gap between yourself and the American.
To do that, you need to take their best prospects. That's the best way to indemnify yourself here.
Personally, I think the Big 12 has operated delusionally and it has hurt them immensely. A few years back when they had an opportunity to take West Virginia and Louisville, instead they passed on Louisville because they were going after Florida State and Clemson.
Riiiiight. That was totally going to happen. And of course this came after they were going to get Arkansas to leave the SEC and Notre Dame to surrender its independence to join that conference because… Well, just because.
Even the summer, you have Big 12 coaches talking about how Nebraska and Missouri want to come back?
Are you high?!
Follow up question, what the hell are you doing? One thing you are not doing is correctly reading the landscape. You've had that wrong at every turn – including yesterday.
Had the Big 12 taken Louisville and Cincinnati along with West Virginia, they would be in a much different position today.
That's not revisionism, that's what I was saying before they made the move, as they were making the move, immediately after they added just WVU, and four or five years later I am still saying that's what they should have done.
It was boneheaded, plain and simple. This decision not to expand is also extremely boneheaded.
I mean if you can't read the writing on the wall here then I don't know what to tell you?
Oklahoma and Texas are definitely leaving. It may not happen next year or in the next three years but it's coming and we can all see it happening before our eyes.
Oh, we will all be assured through various media mouthpieces that thus is all media driven nonsense and how they are committed to the conference and all the rest of it.
Blah, blah, blah.
However, actions speak louder than words and their refusal to extend the GOR speaks volumes.
When they do leave, the rest of those schools are going to need to band together and fall back on some sort of a structure just to survive. They are not creating that structure and that is foolish.
As an example, that conference's only real hope for a playoff berth is if West Virginia goes undefeated. Well, had they followed this logic a few years back, West Virginia would not be worthy of a B12 invite and would therefore be the American's best hope for a playoff berth.
In that same vein, TCU would also be unworthy and they have been one of that conference's best teams for the last several years now.
However, because they were anointed as true Power 5 schools when they were, nobody even thinks about that. The same goes for Louisville. No one is questioning their legitimacy as a P5 program. Hell, their quarterback may win the Heisman Trophy. Well, what's the difference between them and the American teams they were playing just three years ago?
Contrast that with the Big East and the way it approached things. It did not expand proactively and instead chose to react – just like the Big 12 is doing now. Well, when some of it's bell cow programs left, it was forced to dip into the "minor leagues" to replace them and the perception was completely different.
No matter how you slice it this is a dumb decision for that conference and it is an inexcusably dumb decision for everyone except Texas and Oklahoma – who are so powerful that it doesn't matter what they do they are guaranteed to land on their feet.