(10-16-2016 10:02 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: (10-16-2016 09:06 AM)jhruzek Wrote: Anyone wondering if we should really try to change conferences, and or even keep football, should read this article about Rutgers and the Big Ten.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/sports...pe=article
Thank goodness this article indicates that TV coverage is more important than on the field results and butts in seats. If we are ever to appeal to a P5 conference, it will have to be one without a Texas presence.
This has been fairly obvious for the last ten years or so. If you study the conference membership changes since then, not just for the Power 5 but all FBS conferences, you'll see that TV markets have been the biggest driver, not the quality of the football program (if it were, Boise State would be in a P5 conference by now).
What does this mean for Rice? Let's look at the hierarchy of P5 conferences. It's not hard to figure out when you look at how schools have been voting with their feet. At the top are the SEC, Big Ten, and Pac-12. They've been adding members over the years and not losing anyone. Below them are the ACC and Big 12. Each has lost members to other conferences and backfilled with non-P5 schools. I'd put the ACC above the Big XII, because the ACC has gained more than it's lost (and especially after the Big XII's announcement about no expansion - the stench of death is starting to emanate from there...). For Rice, presently things look like this for getting into each conference:
Big Ten - no chance; the contiguity rule keeps Rice out
SEC - the conference already has a significant presence in Texas, and there would be little to be gained by adding Rice
Pac-12 - Rice would add to the AAU top-heavy profile of the conference and add the Houston TV market, but geographically it's quite a stretch
ACC - similar to the Pac-12, with the ACC being more private-school friendly
Big XII - obvious geographical continuity, but TV markets are already covered, and Rice's academic quality isn't as much a factor to conference that's shown itself willing to slum academically, plus there's that stench....
What do I think would be the most likely place Rice could land? I think I-45 Owl came up with this idea first:...
(10-16-2016 11:22 AM)OldOwl Wrote: I always thought the ACC is a better conf for us instead of the Big 12. Bringing the Houston market into the ACC would be a real coup and our academics would of coarse be on par with other universities in the ACC.
I suspect that, in the future, the SEC and maybe the Big Ten are going to put pressure on the ACC, and it'll be needing more members. Rice would be a good fit for the reasons OldOwl states. Other possibilities mainly depend on whether Texas decides to blow up the Big XII and leave. Rice could backfill Big XII vacancies, as there would now be a serious TV coverage hole in the conference (although my guess would be Houston gets selected due to the remaining conference members apathy toward academic quality). Another possibility is that UT will head west and join the Pac-12; Rice might very well come with them. If you look at the map, right now the Pac-12 has all of the schools west of the Rockies that it feels are in its academic class; the next-closest place to the conference with both good academic schools and TV sets is Texas, and the top two academic schools in the state are Rice and Texas.
Having said all of that, I'd say that the odds of any movement of Rice into a P5 conference in the next decade are less than 50-50. The most likely outcome over that period is continued membership in Conference USA or movement to another Group of 5 conference such as the Mountain West or American Athletic Conferences.
