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Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
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HawkeyeCoug Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
It is possible that the Big 12 and Pac 12 could combine, after the grant of rights are up.

Take USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Wash, Oregon, AZ St, Arizona

Combine with Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, OSU, Kansas, TTech, Kansas St, TCU

Good East/West conference with lots of markets and bad teams dropped from each.
10-18-2016 12:16 PM
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Gitanole Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
(10-16-2016 06:59 PM)ken d Wrote:  Perhaps you have some information you'd like to share with the class. I can't say that I've ever heard any credible ACC source that has mentioned UConn as a serious contender, much less on any "short list". In fact I've never heard it from anybody except diehard UConn fans.

When the ACC conducted the search that ended with an invitation for Louisville, the other schools to get serious consideration were Connecticut and Cincinnati.

This was widely reported at the time (ESPN, Washington Post, regional news sources, etc). You can Google it.

Connecticut was actually widely thought to be the favourite. You see evidence of this in the surprised tone of some of the reports about Louisville. At least one report quotes unnamed ACC officials as saying that some discussion took place of extending bids to all three schools.
10-18-2016 12:23 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
(10-18-2016 12:23 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(10-16-2016 06:59 PM)ken d Wrote:  Perhaps you have some information you'd like to share with the class. I can't say that I've ever heard any credible ACC source that has mentioned UConn as a serious contender, much less on any "short list". In fact I've never heard it from anybody except diehard UConn fans.

When the ACC conducted the search that ended with an invitation for Louisville, the other schools to get serious consideration were Connecticut and Cincinnati.

This was widely reported at the time (ESPN, Washington Post, regional news sources, etc). You can Google it.

Connecticut was actually widely thought to be the favourite. You see evidence of this in the surprised tone of some of the reports about Louisville. At least one report quotes unnamed ACC officials as saying that some discussion took place of extending bids to all three schools.

The operative words in your post are "When the ACC conducted the search that ended with an invitation for Louisville". That is now history. Past tense. That does not mean that UConn is still under serious consideration today.
10-18-2016 12:28 PM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
(10-18-2016 12:23 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(10-16-2016 06:59 PM)ken d Wrote:  Perhaps you have some information you'd like to share with the class. I can't say that I've ever heard any credible ACC source that has mentioned UConn as a serious contender, much less on any "short list". In fact I've never heard it from anybody except diehard UConn fans.

When the ACC conducted the search that ended with an invitation for Louisville, the other schools to get serious consideration were Connecticut and Cincinnati.

This was widely reported at the time (ESPN, Washington Post, regional news sources, etc). You can Google it.

Connecticut was actually widely thought to be the favourite. You see evidence of this in the surprised tone of some of the reports about Louisville. At least one report quotes unnamed ACC officials as saying that some discussion took place of extending bids to all three schools.

UConn was the favorite of the media hacks and a very small percentage of schools but when it came down to brass tacks there were far more schools outright opposed to adding another weak football school in the NE than there were schools that supported them. Nothing in that equation has changed since then and there is nothing in the foreseeable future to suggest that will be changing. Unless the dynamic in college football does a 180 flip and goes back to basketball they have little hope of garnering the votes necessary.
10-18-2016 12:31 PM
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jgkojak Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
(10-16-2016 12:57 AM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  --The SEC. Not getting Texas. Probably not crazy about TCU/Baylor/TTech, but could grab one to bolster Texas-presence with TAMU. OU would be their top choice. Kansas might be a nice 2nd option (helps bball brand, reunites Mizzou/KU, gives the SEC West football powers a patsy)...gives them a nice lower midwest pod (OU/KU/Mizzou/Arky). If they strike out on those two options, OkSt and WVU are the next best choices to get to 16. But if they are "stooping" that low, that means the Big Ten or Pac-12 have already taken OU/KU. (SEC fans keep poo-pooing this option, but those are solid sports presences if they need to get to 16 without OU/KU.)

KU will never be in the SEC. The entire city was founded on the ashes of being burned to the ground for being a free state - no way they sign up with Alabama and the rest of the South.

KU has always been a better fit for the B1G - ISU, KU and Tex are the only AAU schools left, so its likely KU and Texas to the B1G.

I could see the Pac taking TTU (proximity to COL) and even KSU.
10-18-2016 12:32 PM
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jgkojak Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
(10-18-2016 12:16 PM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  It is possible that the Big 12 and Pac 12 could combine, after the grant of rights are up.

Take USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Wash, Oregon, AZ St, Arizona

Combine with Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, OSU, Kansas, TTech, Kansas St, TCU

Good East/West conference with lots of markets and bad teams dropped from each.

I think you have stumbled onto the truth - solve the KU/KSU problem and OU/OSU problem, maintain rivalry with Texas/Oklahoma, there is certainly history with Colorado. I might sub ISU for TCU - they don't need more Texas schools, ISU is AAU (which is attractive to the Pac 12)...

you could easily go to 18 or 20.... add back in TCU or Baylor (Baylor may be more attractive to the P12), add back in Wash St and Oregon St -- and you have a 20 team superleague which would play a true round-robin in football and play its champ game together.
10-18-2016 12:37 PM
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orangefan Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
My guess is that the Pac 12 takes another run at Texas and OU in 2025. They would be packaged with 2 of 3 from among TTU, KU and OSU to take the conference to 16 as it tried to do back in 2010.

If the Pac 12 succeeded, that would leave a group of schools that I cannot imagine any of the other P5 conferences would have interest (aside from KU). At that point, the remaining six Big 12 schools target the strongest members of the AAC, MWC and BYU to create a new 12-16 school version of the B12. The B12 retains its P5 status. Under the NCAA constitution, the Big 12 is currently part of the "autonomy group," which would not change. However, it would likely get a reduced payout from the CFP and/or its contract bowl partner.
(This post was last modified: 10-18-2016 12:43 PM by orangefan.)
10-18-2016 12:42 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
(10-18-2016 12:37 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  
(10-18-2016 12:16 PM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  It is possible that the Big 12 and Pac 12 could combine, after the grant of rights are up.

Take USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Wash, Oregon, AZ St, Arizona

Combine with Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, OSU, Kansas, TTech, Kansas St, TCU

Good East/West conference with lots of markets and bad teams dropped from each.

I think you have stumbled onto the truth - solve the KU/KSU problem and OU/OSU problem, maintain rivalry with Texas/Oklahoma, there is certainly history with Colorado. I might sub ISU for TCU - they don't need more Texas schools, ISU is AAU (which is attractive to the Pac 12)...

you could easily go to 18 or 20.... add back in TCU or Baylor (Baylor may be more attractive to the P12), add back in Wash St and Oregon St -- and you have a 20 team superleague which would play a true round-robin in football and play its champ game together.

A 20 team merged league would probably exclude West Virginia and Iowa State. Basically, the other 8 B12 teams vote to dissolve the league, and then join the PAC. Why would they do that? The teams in the new PAC would be giving up a 40% (2 chances in 5) chance at a CFP berth for a 25% (1 in 4)chance, as this would probably result in locking in a champs only model. They could lose the Sugar Bowl tie-in. They give up one CCG, and everybody's chances at qualifying for the CCG are basically cut in half.

Not going to happen.
10-18-2016 12:58 PM
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Brick City Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
Texas to Big Ten would require Texas to stop acting like Texas though. I do not see the Big Ten presidents remotely considering putting up with Texas or giving it an iota of the special treatment that it receives now. LHN for one is a complete non-starter.
10-18-2016 01:09 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
Then I guess the PAC is going to give up on the P12N, and just let Texas do its own thing and keep all money from the LHN for themselves?
10-18-2016 01:12 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
(10-18-2016 12:16 PM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  It is possible that the Big 12 and Pac 12 could combine, after the grant of rights are up.

Take USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Wash, Oregon, AZ St, Arizona

Combine with Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, OSU, Kansas, TTech, Kansas St, TCU

Good East/West conference with lots of markets and bad teams dropped from each.

Shades of the Big 8 absorbing the best of the SWC. Only problem I can see is the snubbing of WSU, Oregon St., and Utah. I don't think that will happen because I imagine they will want to hold onto the "PAC _" name and there's no way those other schools are voting them out.
10-18-2016 01:54 PM
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shere khan Offline
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Post: #72
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
(10-16-2016 12:57 AM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  The networks are sending a clear signal: CFB will be better with a smaller, more elite upper echelon. Long-term, the TV industry doesn't want a diluted product and more "big money" negotiations to have to deal with. They can accept the need to "pay up" for the Power programs/leagues, but they will not pay more than peanuts at the bargaining table with non-Power leagues.

What does that mean for realignment in 2023...the armageddon year for CFB? Let's look around the Power conferences.

The Big 12. It's on borrowed time. Since UT/OU can make more money elsewhere, they are gone. And if they leave, everyone else in the league will be lookingthwards the lifeboats.

--The ACC. I don't think any Big 12 schools appeal to them. They have ND and UConn on their short list if they need to expand...but do not want/need WVU, the only geographical option for them. A two-team Texas-directed expansion is theoretically possible...but it's a LONG drive from Florida to Texas (and from Boston College). If ND doesn't bite on football membership, then UConn will never get it.

--The Big Ten. As the academic and all-sports behemoth, I could see them taking Texas and OU and calling it a day at 16. If Texas has other designs though, I could see them taking Kansas and OU as well. I also wouldn't rule out a "Death Star" option for the Big Ten--taking OU/KU/UT...and add one more school (UConn or Mizzou?) to go to 18....three pods of 6 for geographical/rivalry cohesion. (This "greedy" option would make other expansions rather ugly though...see below.) I simply see NO scenario where the Big 10 does not expand with top Big 12 properties; the college presidents and athletics depts. would agree.

--The SEC. Not getting Texas. Probably not crazy about TCU/Baylor/TTech, but could grab one to bolster Texas-presence with TAMU. OU would be their top choice. Kansas might be a nice 2nd option (helps bball brand, reunites Mizzou/KU, gives the SEC West football powers a patsy)...gives them a nice lower midwest pod (OU/KU/Mizzou/Arky). If they strike out on those two options, OkSt and WVU are the next best choices to get to 16. But if they are "stooping" that low, that means the Big Ten or Pac-12 have already taken OU/KU. (SEC fans keep poo-pooing this option, but those are solid sports presences if they need to get to 16 without OU/KU.)

--The Pac-12. The Texlahoma takeover still has to be their #1 option. It's not off the table entirely. But I simply doesn't see how UT/OU would want to go west. First off, the money is twice as good to the East (Big Ten/SEC). Secondly, the east is where the eyeballs/popularity is for the sport. Without OU/UT, there is no plausible expansion option. I think the Pac-12 will forever be the Pac-12. They aren't going to go to 14 with two "islands" like TTech and KState...and there aren't four good enough options (without OU/UT as 2 of the 4 options).

In conclusion, the "Power" conferences will be 4. They will also expand in 2023 to destroy the Big 12. Teams with landing spots--UT/OU/KU/WVU/OkSt. Teams in a hard spot--Baylor/TTech/TCU. Teams out of luck--KState, Iowa State.
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10-18-2016 02:20 PM
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allthatyoucantleavebehind Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
I'll play on the Pac-20 idea...

the current "12" aren't going anywhere. So, you're talking about adding 4, 6, or 8 from the Big 12. WVU is out for geography. TCU and Baylor are likely out for religious connections. That's down to 7. Iowa State--despite the solid academics--is probably the odd-man out.

I think 18 is a good number. Three pods of 6...and then institute a conference semifinal game to go with the CCG (highest rated wild card).

UW, WSU, UO, OrSt, Stanford, Cal
ASU, USC, Colo, Utah, UCLA, UA
UT, KU, OU, OkSt, TTech, KState

Play your pod every year. Play every other conference team home-away every six years.
10-18-2016 02:22 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
(10-18-2016 02:22 PM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  I'll play on the Pac-20 idea...

the current "12" aren't going anywhere. So, you're talking about adding 4, 6, or 8 from the Big 12. WVU is out for geography. TCU and Baylor are likely out for religious connections. That's down to 7. Iowa State--despite the solid academics--is probably the odd-man out.

I think 18 is a good number. Three pods of 6...and then institute a conference semifinal game to go with the CCG (highest rated wild card).

UW, WSU, UO, OrSt, Stanford, Cal
ASU, USC, Colo, Utah, UCLA, UA
UT, KU, OU, OkSt, TTech, KState

Play your pod every year. Play every other conference team home-away every six years.

Does the bolded part mean you are suggesting these schools break away from the NCAA, whose rules don't allow this?
10-18-2016 02:32 PM
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jgkojak Offline
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Post: #75
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
(10-18-2016 02:22 PM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  I'll play on the Pac-20 idea...

the current "12" aren't going anywhere. So, you're talking about adding 4, 6, or 8 from the Big 12. WVU is out for geography. TCU and Baylor are likely out for religious connections. That's down to 7. Iowa State--despite the solid academics--is probably the odd-man out.

I think 18 is a good number. Three pods of 6...and then institute a conference semifinal game to go with the CCG (highest rated wild card).

UW, WSU, UO, OrSt, Stanford, Cal
ASU, USC, Colo, Utah, UCLA, UA
UT, KU, OU, OkSt, TTech, KState

Play your pod every year. Play every other conference team home-away every six years.

I really like this - and it makes a lot of sense - sad to lose ISU, but they may be the only AAU game in town if the B10 expands again.

In basketball a home and home (10 games) then 6 games against one of the other pods

Go to '20' (which likely includes ISU and Baylor) then you get
East - UT, TTU, OU, OSU, KU, KSU, ISU, BAY, COL, UT

In some ways, that alignment works just as well, and you play only your pod except at tourney time or football championship.

Basketball tourney could be fun if its a play-in for bottom 8 spots in 16 team field
10-18-2016 03:21 PM
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Gitanole Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
(10-16-2016 06:59 PM)ken d Wrote:  Perhaps you have some information you'd like to share with the class. I can't say that I've ever heard any credible ACC source that has mentioned UConn as a serious contender, much less on any "short list". In fact I've never heard it from anybody except diehard UConn fans.

(10-18-2016 12:23 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  When the ACC conducted the search that ended with an invitation for Louisville, the other schools to get serious consideration were Connecticut and Cincinnati.

This was widely reported at the time (ESPN, Washington Post, regional news sources, etc). You can Google it.

Connecticut was actually widely thought to be the favourite. You see evidence of this in the surprised tone of some of the reports about Louisville. At least one report quotes unnamed ACC officials as saying that some discussion took place of extending bids to all three schools.

(10-18-2016 12:28 PM)ken d Wrote:  The operative words in your post are "When the ACC conducted the search that ended with an invitation for Louisville". That is now history. Past tense. That does not mean that UConn is still under serious consideration today.

We have no reason to believe the ACC wants to expand soon with anybody. We do have good reason to suppose that the Huskies would get a serious look if the ACC did.

We know Connecticut was considered both times the ACC added new members in the last five years. A search of the news reports I suggested will show league sources mentioning Connecticut and Cincinnati as continuing options for future expansion.

That's where the ACC left things. That is where things remain today. What happens in the future will be based on needs that arise in a changing landscape.
10-19-2016 12:30 AM
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allthatyoucantleavebehind Offline
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Post: #77
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
(10-18-2016 02:32 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(10-18-2016 02:22 PM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  I'll play on the Pac-20 idea...

the current "12" aren't going anywhere. So, you're talking about adding 4, 6, or 8 from the Big 12. WVU is out for geography. TCU and Baylor are likely out for religious connections. That's down to 7. Iowa State--despite the solid academics--is probably the odd-man out.

I think 18 is a good number. Three pods of 6...and then institute a conference semifinal game to go with the CCG (highest rated wild card).

UW, WSU, UO, OrSt, Stanford, Cal
ASU, USC, Colo, Utah, UCLA, UA
UT, KU, OU, OkSt, TTech, KState

Play your pod every year. Play every other conference team home-away every six years.

Does the bolded part mean you are suggesting these schools break away from the NCAA, whose rules don't allow this?

The NCAA only makes rules that the conferences want to obey. If these 18 schools want a conference semi-final game, they hold a lot of sway.

There's a good chance that someone else would balloon up to 16 teams as well (SEC/ACC/Big Ten)...and then they could just as easily do four pods of 4...with a straight-up semi-final featuring each of the pod winners.

Break off from the NCAA....sheesh. 01-wingedeagle
10-19-2016 05:45 AM
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panama Offline
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Post: #78
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
(10-16-2016 02:02 PM)connecticutguy Wrote:  Does the AAC need to figure out why it exists as a first step? It just can't be a hodgepodge of a landing pad for diverse schools which for the time being can't get into any P5 conference. Maybe it can review its list of current members and come up with a mission and goals.
At some point everyone need to figure out at the G5 level why they are in this. Now that the smoke has cleared school Presidents and ADs can take a deep breath and figure out geographically, economically and institutional mission wise where they fit.

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10-19-2016 06:58 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #79
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
IMO the cleanest move at this point would be for the PAC to go to 20 and take all the Big 12 less Baylor and WVU.

UT and CO go east with the BIG 12 schools in a 10 team division and the PAC 10 is back together in a 10 team western division.

If the PAC wanted they could substitute Houston for Iowa St. I'm assuming the PAC bound BIG 12 schools would want to do disolve the conferenc so they may have to take Iowa St with them to do so.

Two 10 team divisions with no crossover outside of made for TV matchups is a pretty feasible when you factor in non revenue sports.
10-19-2016 07:46 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #80
RE: Realignment Future (now that Big 12 not expanding)
CO would do everything in its power to kill that. They'd be playing only 9 former Big 12 teams, and no PAC teams. Maybe that's what it needs though, to get back to Texas recruiting. Although they've finally broken through this year, assuming with Calif kids.

20 works well with 9 conf games, everyone plays everyone else in the division with no division crossover (CCG guaranteed no rematch).

But coaches and admin are going to push for 10 conf games, so you always get 5 conf home games per year. There's 22, with a straight up merger. Though obviously WV makes zero sense. Who's lucky #22?? BYU, CO St, Houston? I'd be on my hands and knees begging to have it be Nebraska. But that wouldn't happen.
(This post was last modified: 10-19-2016 08:08 AM by MplsBison.)
10-19-2016 08:04 AM
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