Well, I think we can conclude that no G5 team will finish in the top 4 this year. The interesting race will be for the Access Bowl for the top G5 champion. Houston will need two losses from Navy just to go to the AAC cha,pionship game. I think Boise St is the top team right now, with others lurking.

(10-08-2016 06:03 PM)leofrog Wrote:  Well, I think we can conclude that no G5 team will finish in the top 4 this year. The interesting race will be for the Access Bowl for the top G5 champion. Houston will need two losses from Navy just to go to the AAC cha,pionship game. I think Boise St is the top team right now, with others lurking.

Throw W. Michigan in that mix. Two P5 wins.

.

(10-08-2016 06:03 PM)leofrog Wrote:  Well, I think we can conclude that no G5 team will finish in the top 4 this year. The interesting race will be for the Access Bowl for the top G5 champion. Houston will need two losses from Navy just to go to the AAC cha,pionship game. I think Boise St is the top team right now, with others lurking.

Not necessarily. If Memphis beats Navy and Houston beats Memphis, there could be a 3-way tie in the AAC West, and Houston might get in on a tie-breaker.

In any event, Houston is badly positioned now vs both Boise and Western Michigan. They need those schools to lose.

(10-09-2016 05:31 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-08-2016 06:03 PM)leofrog Wrote:  Well, I think we can conclude that no G5 team will finish in the top 4 this year. The interesting race will be for the Access Bowl for the top G5 champion. Houston will need two losses from Navy just to go to the AAC cha,pionship game. I think Boise St is the top team right now, with others lurking.

Not necessarily. If Memphis beats Navy and Houston beats Memphis, there could be a 3-way tie in the AAC West, and Houston might get in on a tie-breaker.

In any event, Houston is badly positioned now vs both Boise and Western Michigan. They need those schools to lose.

I agree that Houston has put itself in a difficult situation however don't know if they need Boise or wmu to lose. They could still be ranked higher when the first polls come out and as long as Memphis beats navy they could still get there (beating of course Louisville and Memphis which they would have had to do anyways).

The Candidates (for their prospective conference championships):

AAC:
South Florida 5-1
Navy 4-1
Memphis 4-1
Tulsa 4-1
Houston 5-1

MWC:
Boise 5-0
Air Force 4-1
San Diego St. 4-1

Conference USA:
MTSU 4-1
ODU 4-2
Southern Miss 4-2

MAC:
Akron 4-2
Ohio 4-2
Western Michigan 6-0
Toledo 4-1

Sun Belt:
Troy 4-1
App State 3-2

(10-09-2016 08:36 AM)virgosports Wrote:  

(10-09-2016 05:31 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-08-2016 06:03 PM)leofrog Wrote:  Well, I think we can conclude that no G5 team will finish in the top 4 this year. The interesting race will be for the Access Bowl for the top G5 champion. Houston will need two losses from Navy just to go to the AAC cha,pionship game. I think Boise St is the top team right now, with others lurking.

Not necessarily. If Memphis beats Navy and Houston beats Memphis, there could be a 3-way tie in the AAC West, and Houston might get in on a tie-breaker.

In any event, Houston is badly positioned now vs both Boise and Western Michigan. They need those schools to lose.

I agree that Houston has put itself in a difficult situation however don't know if they need Boise or wmu to lose. They could still be ranked higher when the first polls come out and as long as Memphis beats navy they could still get there (beating of course Louisville and Memphis which they would have had to do anyways).

Sure, but I don't think a once-beaten Houston will be ranked over an unbeaten Boise or WMU, that's why I think they need those schools to lose. Especially Boise.

Houston's problem two+ months from now will be that they didn't lose to Ohio State or Alabama, they lost to Navy, a team Air Force manhandled. That's hard to make up.

Quote:Sure, but I don't think a once-beaten Houston will be ranked over an unbeaten Boise or WMU, that's why I think they need those schools to lose. Especially Boise.

I think it's possible, as Houston plays Louisville later in the year which would stick out in people's minds. So if they win that that's great -- but if Navy just has 1 conference loss, Houston most likely won't go (would need 3 way tie + it going their way).

So Houston could end up 11-1, ranked higher than an undefeated Boise & WMU -- but not even be a candidate to go the NY6. :)

Lets not forget about Washington State put a beat down on Stanford. Boise State beat them this year, and Boise State might be in a position to reach the top 4 this year if Washington State wins out, and that they beat Washington in the Apple Cup. Remember, Boise State is a darling with the voters because they beat great P5 schools in the Fiesta Bowl and in the regular season. The interesting tidbit is that both Harsin and Peterson was under the direction of Hawkins. When Hawkins left, Peterson was promoted to head coach and Harsin was promoted to offensive coordinator and QB coach. So, Boise State and Washington run the same type of plays which would give Washington State an advantage to face Washington in a few weeks.

(10-09-2016 11:18 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:Sure, but I don't think a once-beaten Houston will be ranked over an unbeaten Boise or WMU, that's why I think they need those schools to lose. Especially Boise.

I think it's possible, as Houston plays Louisville later in the year which would stick out in people's minds. So if they win that that's great -- but if Navy just has 1 conference loss, Houston most likely won't go (would need 3 way tie + it going their way).

So Houston could end up 11-1, ranked higher than an undefeated Boise & WMU -- but not even be a candidate to go the NY6. :)

It is not confirmed that you have to be a Conf champ to get the bid, or is it? Highest G5 or G5 champ?

Yes it is confirmed - the access bowl goes to the highest ranked G5 conference champion. Boise is in the driver's seat right now, but I could easily see two more losses for the Broncos.

Quote:It is not confirmed that you have to be a Conf champ to get the bid, or is it? Highest G5 or G5 champ?

Yeah, it is a rule to be the official conference champion to be considered. So only 5 teams can go under consideration.

Houston could maul Louisville who ends up 10-2, and Houston could end up 11-1, and a 9-3 Boise, 9-3 WMU, 9-3 S Florida, 9-3 Southern Miss, and 8-4 App State could be the only ones to officially consider.

The rankings, not to the tee of the AP/Coach's poll, only matter amongst the G5 conference champs.

(10-09-2016 11:43 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Lets not forget about Washington State put a beat down on Stanford. Boise State beat them this year, and Boise State might be in a position to reach the top 4 this year if Washington State wins out, and that they beat Washington in the Apple Cup. Remember, Boise State is a darling with the voters because they beat great P5 schools in the Fiesta Bowl and in the regular season. The interesting tidbit is that both Harsin and Peterson was under the direction of Hawkins. When Hawkins left, Peterson was promoted to head coach and Harsin was promoted to offensive coordinator and QB coach. So, Boise State and Washington run the same type of plays which would give Washington State an advantage to face Washington in a few weeks.

No offense, but a lot has to happen for Boise St to make the playoffs this year. Houston had the only shot out of the G5, and they blew that. Heck, I don't think it's certain that a 13-0 Boise St gets in over a 12-1 Houston team, if certain things go Houston's way. Remember, the committee has weighed who you've beaten more than who's beaten you. If Houston wins out, that means they will have at least 2-3 top 25 wins, while Boise may have 1, 2 if lucky. And, Houston's wins would be more impressive.

Again, there is a lot of football left.

(10-09-2016 02:13 PM)leofrog Wrote:  

(10-09-2016 11:43 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Lets not forget about Washington State put a beat down on Stanford. Boise State beat them this year, and Boise State might be in a position to reach the top 4 this year if Washington State wins out, and that they beat Washington in the Apple Cup. Remember, Boise State is a darling with the voters because they beat great P5 schools in the Fiesta Bowl and in the regular season. The interesting tidbit is that both Harsin and Peterson was under the direction of Hawkins. When Hawkins left, Peterson was promoted to head coach and Harsin was promoted to offensive coordinator and QB coach. So, Boise State and Washington run the same type of plays which would give Washington State an advantage to face Washington in a few weeks.

No offense, but a lot has to happen for Boise St to make the playoffs this year. Houston had the only shot out of the G5, and they blew that. Heck, I don't think it's certain that a 13-0 Boise St gets in over a 12-1 Houston team, if certain things go Houston's way. Remember, the committee has weighed who you've beaten more than who's beaten you. If Houston wins out, that means they will have at least 2-3 top 25 wins, while Boise may have 1, 2 if lucky. And, Houston's wins would be more impressive.

Again, there is a lot of football left.

Strange, Boise State beat both Washington State and Oregon State, and they both won, and seemed to be improving each week getting stronger. Plus, Boise could beat Air Force who beat Navy who then beat Houston.

Last year, Houston lost to Connecticut, and still was the G5 representative. I agree that Boise State controls its destiny, followed by Western Michigan. If either of those falter and Navy wins out, they'll be the representative. A loss to Air Force this year earlier in the season should be held in higher regard to a late season loss was last year to UConn.

With Houston losing it's wide open. AAC has 5 one loss teams which is pretty impressive. You would think Boise has an inside track at this point, but as we all know, it can and will change. Personally, I think CUSA and Sun Belt chances are very minimal. Southern Miss got routed by UTSA. ODU or MTSU...no. AAC, MAC, and MWC champs have legit chances.

Rather have Navy represent to be honest, even if they drop another one. They'll still have a win over a USF or whomever comes out of the east.

(10-09-2016 03:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Rather have Navy represent to be honest, even if they drop another one. They'll still have a win over a USF or whomever comes out of the east.

The "Navy rule" may go into effect this year. I believe the committee has decided that if Navy is the AAC champ, they will wait until after the Army-Navy game to announce the G5 Access bid. It'll be interesting if that happens.

Quote:Last year, Houston lost to Connecticut, and still was the G5 representative. I agree that Boise State controls its destiny, followed by Western Michigan. If either of those falter and Navy wins out, they'll be the representative.

Yeah, but Houston wasn't going to battle UConn for the tie-breaker which is why that loss mattered less. If you lose to a divisional contender (WMU to Toledo; Houston to Navy/Memphis; Boise to AF), you need that Contender to lose *2* conf games considering they beat you. In other words, you don't control your own destiny. Houston lost to a non-divisional opponent, so as long as they beat everyone in their division, they'd win out.

If Boise loses 1 game, I don't think that would necessarily make Navy a shoe-in. If Boise beat AF and Navy lost to them, and each beat an about-equal opponent in the championship game, Boise's OOC schedule is tougher than Navy's. Navy's Conf schedule would be tougher. It would be a tough call altogether.

WMU can't afford to lose any game, but part of that is because any worthy loss (Toledo who'll be ranked @ 10-1 by Game 12, or Akron in MACC) would not even make them a consideration anyway, as their SoS the rest of the way until playing Toledo in Game 12 is not daunting (although @Akron + @Ball State/EMU aren't gimmie games; potential trap-games for any real good G5).

Navy though, I don't see winning out. I can see Boise & WMU doing it without having to stretch possibilities.

Boise: BYU (Tough), @Wyoming (trap), @Hawaii (trap), SD-State (Tough; MWC)
WMU: @Akron (trap), @Ball State (trap), EMU (trap), Toledo (Tough), Akron (MACC)

IMO, if Boise wins out, unless Houston's BULLDOZING the rest of the way + having Navy lose 2 conf games to even make it to AACC, they're going to go.

(10-09-2016 04:29 PM)leofrog Wrote:  

(10-09-2016 03:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Rather have Navy represent to be honest, even if they drop another one. They'll still have a win over a USF or whomever comes out of the east.

The "Navy rule" may go into effect this year. I believe the committee has decided that if Navy is the AAC champ, they will wait until after the Army-Navy game to announce the G5 Access bid. It'll be interesting if that happens.

Based on what? I agree it's an interesting concept, but you'd have to hold off on giving out bids to quite a few other bowl games indirectly affected by whoever the G5 champ is. Whichever conference has a team get a bid earns another spot in one of their minor bowls, or pushes a team in a non-affiliated bowl into one of them.

What is the Navy rule exactly? The entire selection process moves a week up?