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Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
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Wedge Offline
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Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
In today's episode of "As The Big 12 Turns":

http://www.iowastatedaily.com/sports/art...38f67.html

Quote:Iowa State President Steven Leath took a turn in his view on Big 12 expansion in a meeting with Iowa State Daily editors Friday morning, saying he felt it was "less likely."
Quote:"There’s obviously some very different opinions among different schools," Leath said. "I think when we get into a room [later in October] and talk about it, we’ll figure it out. To answer your question, I think the chances we expand are a little smaller than it was before."
Quote:Oklahoma president David Boren said to ESPN in September it was "not a sure thing" that the Big 12 would add schools. Leath echoed that Friday, saying Oklahoma "has indicated less of a willingness to expand."
10-07-2016 02:59 PM
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Post: #2
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
Good Golly! Oct 17 can't come soon enough. Can't wait for this drama to be over with.
10-07-2016 03:29 PM
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RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
So that is code for "We are adding 6", right?


Or to put a NoDak spin on it, that means that the Big 12 isn't expanding because it is breaking up.
10-07-2016 03:32 PM
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RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
10 more days, and we'll get an indication, even if they say nothing, lol.
10-07-2016 05:23 PM
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Post: #5
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
Kinda makes me wonder if Iowa St guy has been kept out of the loop lately and is fishing for a response from Boren et al. Must suck arriving at the board meeting not having a clue what the factions are or who's in them.
10-07-2016 05:41 PM
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RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
(10-07-2016 05:41 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Must suck arriving at the board meeting not having a clue what the factions are or who's in them.
I doubt it's gotten that bad. It's just a fact that if OU and UT can reach agreement, everyone else will fall in line. And if OU and UT cannot reach agreement, then nothing will happen. Leath can't change that basic reality.
10-07-2016 08:12 PM
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Post: #7
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
Maybe it's not that bad in the sense of Boren consciously keeping the Iowa St prez out of the loop.

Although that's not inconceivable, as retaliation for saying publicly that a GoR expansion was required. Keep in mind that Boren and the Iowa St prez are pretty much the two guys who have made public comments, that I'm aware of at least.

But from a practical standpoint: it is absolutely possible that 10 guys walk into that board meeting having no idea where the other 9 stand. That's simply life as a university president! Impossibly busy, with all matters relating to the operation of the university (finances, enrollment, diversity, tenure, faculty relations, faculty compensation, admin, HR, .... and somewhere down on that list is athletics).

This board meeting might be the first time these guys all get on the same page with each other, in quite some time.
10-08-2016 08:56 AM
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Post: #8
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
(10-08-2016 08:56 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Maybe it's not that bad in the sense of Boren consciously keeping the Iowa St prez out of the loop.

Although that's not inconceivable, as retaliation for saying publicly that a GoR expansion was required. Keep in mind that Boren and the Iowa St prez are pretty much the two guys who have made public comments, that I'm aware of at least.

But from a practical standpoint: it is absolutely possible that 10 guys walk into that board meeting having no idea where the other 9 stand. That's simply life as a university president! Impossibly busy, with all matters relating to the operation of the university (finances, enrollment, diversity, tenure, faculty relations, faculty compensation, admin, HR, .... and somewhere down on that list is athletics).

This board meeting might be the first time these guys all get on the same page with each other, in quite some time.

Could be. I think until now, they have not felt any time pressure to make a decision, and BYU got hurt, when they had a great shot at being added. But now, if they are going to do anything for 2017, which they have said publicly owuld be the plan, they have to decide something now.

So, the possible outcomes from the Oct. 17 meeting are:

1. Kill expansion.

2. Kick the can down the road until 2018 play, at least.

3. Add 2 teams.

4. Add 4 teams.

5. Say nothing after the meeting.

I think #5 is the least likely outcome, lol.
10-08-2016 09:18 AM
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Post: #9
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
No, they'll make an announcement. Or it will get leaked (either in the traditional sense, or in the "planned" sense).

It will either be to table discussion of expansion until the next meeting, or to add two teams. 50-50
10-08-2016 09:44 AM
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Post: #10
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
(10-08-2016 09:44 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  No, they'll make an announcement. Or it will get leaked (either in the traditional sense, or in the "planned" sense).

It will either be to table discussion of expansion until the next meeting, or to add two teams. 50-50

Okay, you're saying #2 (kick the can) and #3 (add 2) are 50-50.

I say it's #4 (add 4) at 60%, #3 (add 2) at 30%, and #2 (kick the can) at 10%. I agree that saying expansion is completely dead, or saying nothing, are out the window.

Any other brave predictions?
10-08-2016 11:34 AM
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Post: #11
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
(10-08-2016 11:34 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(10-08-2016 09:44 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  No, they'll make an announcement. Or it will get leaked (either in the traditional sense, or in the "planned" sense).

It will either be to table discussion of expansion until the next meeting, or to add two teams. 50-50

Okay, you're saying #2 (kick the can) and #3 (add 2) are 50-50.

I say it's #4 (add 4) at 60%, #3 (add 2) at 30%, and #2 (kick the can) at 10%. I agree that saying expansion is completely dead, or saying nothing, are out the window.

Any other brave predictions?

My odds
60% add two-Houston and BYU or Cincinnati
10% add four-Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and somebody else
20% no expansion
10% defer decision to November, December or January when they add two but probably for 2018, not 2017
10-08-2016 11:42 AM
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Post: #12
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
I think they've opened Pandora's box and its too late to close it. Expansion will be a constant issue, whether they admit it or not, unless they actually expand.

They've created a psychological situation where they really do need to expand. It wasn't as necessary before Boren started talking last year.
10-08-2016 11:45 AM
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Post: #13
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
(10-08-2016 11:45 AM)bullet Wrote:  I think they've opened Pandora's box and its too late to close it. Expansion will be a constant issue, whether they admit it or not, unless they actually expand.

They've created a psychological situation where they really do need to expand. It wasn't as necessary before Boren started talking last year.

I agree. My theory is that the expansion committee (Boren, Gee, Starr) came up with recommendations, or at least ideas, and the other 7 presidents didn't respond well, so Boren went public to add pressure, and called in the consultants to verify whatever preliminary findings they had made, or thought.

I think at this point, the Big 12 would look irretrievably inept (if they don't already), by not expanding.

I think adding two is a virtual lock, despite the media once again reporting that no expansion is more likely.
10-08-2016 12:25 PM
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Post: #14
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
(10-08-2016 11:42 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-08-2016 11:34 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(10-08-2016 09:44 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  No, they'll make an announcement. Or it will get leaked (either in the traditional sense, or in the "planned" sense).

It will either be to table discussion of expansion until the next meeting, or to add two teams. 50-50

Okay, you're saying #2 (kick the can) and #3 (add 2) are 50-50.

I say it's #4 (add 4) at 60%, #3 (add 2) at 30%, and #2 (kick the can) at 10%. I agree that saying expansion is completely dead, or saying nothing, are out the window.

Any other brave predictions?

My odds
60% add two-Houston and BYU or Cincinnati
10% add four-Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and somebody else
20% no expansion
10% defer decision to November, December or January when they add two but probably for 2018, not 2017

That's a lot closer to public opinion than mine, lol. My issue with adding UH as one of two is that the opposition would be too great to increase the percentage of Texas schools. But at 14, it stays virtually the same.

I also think UT is pushing for UH, so those two assumptions together steer me toward 14.

I have a backup theory, too. I think the Big 12 had every intent to add BYU, but their public image, in light of Baylor's scandal, is just too toxic to add them right now. So, it's possible the Big 12 will add two, and revisit 13/14 for 2018 or 2019.
10-08-2016 12:30 PM
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Post: #15
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
My prediction :

70% no expansion.
15% delay decision til Dec or spring of 2017
15% 2 team addition (2 of Houston, Cinci & BYU)
10-08-2016 01:15 PM
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RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
(10-08-2016 01:15 PM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  My prediction :

70% no expansion.
15% delay decision til Dec or spring of 2017
15% 2 team addition (2 of Houston, Cinci & BYU)

That's even closer to the general consensus, I think. Certainly what a lot of media guys seem to be saying. Fortunately, they have sucked lately at realignment predictions.
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2016 01:35 PM by TripleA.)
10-08-2016 01:33 PM
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Post: #17
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
(10-08-2016 12:30 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(10-08-2016 11:42 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-08-2016 11:34 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(10-08-2016 09:44 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  No, they'll make an announcement. Or it will get leaked (either in the traditional sense, or in the "planned" sense).

It will either be to table discussion of expansion until the next meeting, or to add two teams. 50-50

Okay, you're saying #2 (kick the can) and #3 (add 2) are 50-50.

I say it's #4 (add 4) at 60%, #3 (add 2) at 30%, and #2 (kick the can) at 10%. I agree that saying expansion is completely dead, or saying nothing, are out the window.

Any other brave predictions?

My odds
60% add two-Houston and BYU or Cincinnati
10% add four-Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and somebody else
20% no expansion
10% defer decision to November, December or January when they add two but probably for 2018, not 2017

That's a lot closer to public opinion than mine, lol. My issue with adding UH as one of two is that the opposition would be too great to increase the percentage of Texas schools. But at 14, it stays virtually the same.

I also think UT is pushing for UH, so those two assumptions together steer me toward 14.

I have a backup theory, too. I think the Big 12 had every intent to add BYU, but their public image, in light of Baylor's scandal, is just too toxic to add them right now. So, it's possible the Big 12 will add two, and revisit 13/14 for 2018 or 2019.

I'm inclined to believe Stitler who said Boren liked UH. There have been lots of rumblings that OU is opposed to UH, but it just rings like fans and boosters who don't like Texas politicians telling them what to do. I think the UH opposition is from the old Big 12 North. So unless they are willing to scuttle expansion, UH is in.

When you look at historical success or even success for the last 20 years since UH left the SWC, UH is simply the top of the class (excluding BYU). Cincinnati is the only one who is really close.

And they have publically said they want schools that will contribute now. That means no projects unless they happen to be #14 (UConn, USF, UCF, Tulane).
10-08-2016 03:44 PM
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Post: #18
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
There's been enough vocal complaints from the networks, 14 seems pretty unlikely. 2 months ago, I would have given it about a 50% chance. And its not just ESPN. Fox has complained. Neither seems to want a lot of extra inventory for Saturdays.
10-08-2016 03:46 PM
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Post: #19
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
(10-08-2016 03:44 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-08-2016 12:30 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(10-08-2016 11:42 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-08-2016 11:34 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(10-08-2016 09:44 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  No, they'll make an announcement. Or it will get leaked (either in the traditional sense, or in the "planned" sense).

It will either be to table discussion of expansion until the next meeting, or to add two teams. 50-50

Okay, you're saying #2 (kick the can) and #3 (add 2) are 50-50.

I say it's #4 (add 4) at 60%, #3 (add 2) at 30%, and #2 (kick the can) at 10%. I agree that saying expansion is completely dead, or saying nothing, are out the window.

Any other brave predictions?

My odds
60% add two-Houston and BYU or Cincinnati
10% add four-Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and somebody else
20% no expansion
10% defer decision to November, December or January when they add two but probably for 2018, not 2017

That's a lot closer to public opinion than mine, lol. My issue with adding UH as one of two is that the opposition would be too great to increase the percentage of Texas schools. But at 14, it stays virtually the same.

I also think UT is pushing for UH, so those two assumptions together steer me toward 14.

I have a backup theory, too. I think the Big 12 had every intent to add BYU, but their public image, in light of Baylor's scandal, is just too toxic to add them right now. So, it's possible the Big 12 will add two, and revisit 13/14 for 2018 or 2019.

I'm inclined to believe Stitler who said Boren liked UH. There have been lots of rumblings that OU is opposed to UH, but it just rings like fans and boosters who don't like Texas politicians telling them what to do. I think the UH opposition is from the old Big 12 North. So unless they are willing to scuttle expansion, UH is in.

When you look at historical success or even success for the last 20 years since UH left the SWC, UH is simply the top of the class (excluding BYU). Cincinnati is the only one who is really close.

And they have publically said they want schools that will contribute now. That means no projects unless they happen to be #14 (UConn, USF, UCF, Tulane).

I'm just guessing, but I don't think OU is opposed to Houston. I think some of the other non-Texas schools are, though, and maybe even Baylor and/or TCU. I know several ADs and HCs have complained publicly about admitting Houston.

Enough that a compromise could be UT gets in UH, if the little 8 get 14 instead of 12.

I agree there is an issue with finding a #14 that isn't a project in FB, and I think that has been part of the holdup. Again, just a guess. But there is some logic to it.
10-08-2016 04:13 PM
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Post: #20
RE: Iowa State president says expansion "less likely"
(10-08-2016 03:46 PM)bullet Wrote:  There's been enough vocal complaints from the networks, 14 seems pretty unlikely. 2 months ago, I would have given it about a 50% chance. And its not just ESPN. Fox has complained. Neither seems to want a lot of extra inventory for Saturdays.

I agree that neither network is happy. It depends on how forceful the Big 12 wants to be in enforcing the existing pro rata clauses. They came out pretty strongly about it at first, but lately have backed down a bit in tone.

But if the Big 12 presidents don't give a crap beyond 2025, or think there will be other revenue streams available then, they could tell the networks too bad. After all, it's an enforceable contract, not one tied to a renegotiation. Why the networks ever signed it, I don't know.
10-08-2016 04:18 PM
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