(10-06-2016 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I totally disagree that Louisville would need a 2 loss Big 12 and Pac 12 champ. If it's Louisville at 11-1 and Washington at 12-1, with the putrid OOC schedule Washington has- and really schedule overall- I think Louisville would get it- and it wouldn't be all that close.

I really think Louisville and Houston are in the same boat quite frankly. The winner of that game- if they win out will get in unless one of Baylor, WVU, or Washington wins out.

It would depend on who the UW loss is to, but a 12-1 Pac-12 Champ will get in over a non-champ every day.

And the honest truth is, if Louisville and Clemson both win out, the college football world wants to see Louisville and Clemson play again. The only way that happens is in the CFP.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-footbal...ah-me-too/

http://www.foxsports.com/college-footbal...off-100216

http://nypost.com/2016/10/02/why-louisvi...f-chances/

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/clems...-position/

Looks like journalists already know it's a possibility.
CJ

Something I think may come into play for Houston is that if they win out that would make them 26-1 for the past 2 seasons with 2 wins over u of Louisville, 1 over FSU and 1 over Oklahoma. If Memphis and USF can win out until they play Houston that could also provide them with 2 more ranked wins at the end of the season.

It's a definite possibility. Part of it is any loss that Washington takes would be a much worse loss than Louisville.

A big thing for Washington is Stanford has to win out. They need a Stanford to be a top 10 win end of the year. Stanford at 8-4 doesn't help Washington out at all.

(10-06-2016 12:05 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  And the honest truth is, if Louisville and Clemson both win out, the college football world wants to see Louisville and Clemson play again. The only way that happens is in the CFP.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-footbal...ah-me-too/

http://www.foxsports.com/college-footbal...off-100216

http://nypost.com/2016/10/02/why-louisvi...f-chances/

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/clems...-position/

Looks like journalists already know it's a possibility.
CJ

I am happy with no rematches. Although it would be better than the LSU-Alabama travesty.

Washington, at 12-1, will have played 11 P5, 1 G5, and one FCS
Louisville, at 11-1, will have played 9 P5, 3 G5


The two G5's that Louisville has already played are winless against FBS competition, and haven't been within two touchdowns of any FBS team.

Both of Washington's FBS OOC wins have at least beaten one other FBS team.

Washington at 12-1 would have wins over Stanford, and ?
Louisville at 11-1 would have wins over Houston, and Florida St.

Florida St can easily finish 9-3- and ranked in the top 15. Utah maybe- but best case they're the team that Washington loses to, and then beats in the CCG. Utah then best case would be 10-2 going into the game- and then 10-3. Probably pretty close....

That's why I said how important Stanford is. Stanford has to finish 11-1 for Washington.

Also you might not like this- but Louisville would get far more credit for playing Houston than Washington playing Rutgers.

Also- both teams would be 11-1 vs FBS teams. Washington isn't going to get credit for 12 wins there. Sorry- Portland St doesn't count.

(10-06-2016 12:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Washington at 12-1 would have wins over Stanford, and ?
Louisville at 11-1 would have wins over Houston, and Florida St.

Florida St can easily finish 9-3- and ranked in the top 15. Utah maybe- but best case they're the team that Washington loses to, and then beats in the CCG. Utah then best case would be 10-2 going into the game- and then 10-3. Probably pretty close....

That's why I said how important Stanford is. Stanford has to finish 11-1 for Washington.

Also you might not like this- but Louisville would get far more credit for playing Houston than Washington playing Rutgers.

Also- both teams would be 11-1 vs FBS teams. Washington isn't going to get credit for 12 wins there. Sorry- Portland St doesn't count.

But P5 teams do matter (and Portland State would beat Charlotte).

Louisville will get credit for Houston, yes.

A lot of football to be played yet, still haven't seen anything that would convince me that the ACC is so much better than the Pac 12 that a team that can't even win it's division in the ACC would get in over a Conference Champ

(10-06-2016 12:45 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 12:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Washington at 12-1 would have wins over Stanford, and ?
Louisville at 11-1 would have wins over Houston, and Florida St.

Florida St can easily finish 9-3- and ranked in the top 15. Utah maybe- but best case they're the team that Washington loses to, and then beats in the CCG. Utah then best case would be 10-2 going into the game- and then 10-3. Probably pretty close....

That's why I said how important Stanford is. Stanford has to finish 11-1 for Washington.

Also you might not like this- but Louisville would get far more credit for playing Houston than Washington playing Rutgers.

Also- both teams would be 11-1 vs FBS teams. Washington isn't going to get credit for 12 wins there. Sorry- Portland St doesn't count.

But P5 teams do matter (and Portland State would beat Charlotte).

Louisville will get credit for Houston, yes.

A lot of football to be played yet, still haven't seen anything that would convince me that the ACC is so much better than the Pac 12 that a team that can't even win it's division in the ACC would get in over a Conference Champ

Part of the problem with Washington is they avoid playing Colorado and UCLA this year. 2 of the better teams on that side of the conference. So if Colorado goes like 9-3- it A- doesn't help Washington- and b- makes teams that Washington does play worse.

Louisville would have 9 P5 games plus Houston.
Washington would have 11 P5 games. But 1 of those vs Rutgers- one of the worst P5 teams around.

If Stanford finishes like 9-3, and Houston is 11-1, Louisville would get much more credit for Houston than Washington would playing Stanford.

The biggest challenge either has the rest of the season is Louisville playing Houston.

Also, Charlotte isn't much different than Idaho. Portland St just won't count for much. Both teams 11-1 vs FBS teams. It's not going to be 12-1 vs 11-1.

Guys, Clemson still has games left, It's not a lock yet !

(10-06-2016 01:08 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  Guys, Clemson still has games left, It's not a lock yet !

Clemson would have to lose 2 times though. Sure Florida St(coming off a Clemson bye). But then-
@ BC 3-2 right now
NC State 3-1 right now
Syracuse 2-3 right now
Pitt 3-2 right now
@ Wake Forest 4-1 right now

Just really difficult to see. All 5 of those other games, they're going to be massive favorites.

Lots of games left to play, ACC is only marginally better than the PAC and honestly may not be better at all. For arguments sake I'll say it is, but it doesn't matter because if Baylor or WVU is undefeated they will get in over a 1 loss Louisville and a one loss PAC champ will also get in over the Cardinal. Their schedule is not good enough to include them when considering a 1 loss or no loss conference champ. Now obviously this changes if Clemson falls apart down the stretch but i don't see that happening

The thing is, and we've seen it, the committee just is not blinded by the number of losses like the polls used to be. They look at things a whole hell of a lot closer than just the number of losses. Remember, undefeated Florida St was ranked 4th behind 3 1 loss teams.

Louisville at 11-1 is going to be a tough beat. ACC, SEC, Big Ten all would be in. Already in the Big 12- only 3 teams left with 0-1 loss. Baylor, WVU, and Texas Tech. Louisville would get in already over 11-1 Texas Tech. And if Baylor, WVU lose once- Louisville in over them... And Washington's problem is their OOC schedule. You schedule Rutgers, Idaho, and Portland St- you're asking for problems. That and the fact that the conference as a whole is down this year. It's possible Washington could only have Stanford on their schedule as a ranked opponent when all is said and done.

Stever, I want to tell you I think you might be overestimating the Cardinals' schedule a bit. But I realy like what you are saying, so I am just going to buy every single word of it

I think you are vastly overestimating the strength of the ACC. Thats ok though, let's see how October goes and see how the conference games shake out.

(10-06-2016 02:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing is, and we've seen it, the committee just is not blinded by the number of losses like the polls used to be. They look at things a whole hell of a lot closer than just the number of losses. Remember, undefeated Florida St was ranked 4th behind 3 1 loss teams.

FWIW, unbeaten FSU was ranked 3rd in the final CFP. But, everyone knows that rankings within the top four mean next to nothing, the entire ball game is either being in or out of the top four.

It's going to be hard for Louisville to make the case that they are "unequivocally" better than a 12-1 PAC champ Washington. Probably impossible.

(10-06-2016 12:05 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  And the honest truth is, if Louisville and Clemson both win out, the college football world wants to see Louisville and Clemson play again. The only way that happens is in the CFP.

This is in-the-moment hype, fueled by the excitement of the game, but it will fade in time as all such hype fades. There will be lots of other exciting games between top teams between now and the CFP decision.

Heck, remember 10 years ago? As soon as the #1 vs #2, Ohio State 42 Michigan 39 game ended, the entire media was shouting Rematch !!!

But just a week later, the mood had shifted and everyone agreed Florida, the SEC champ, should face Ohio State for the BCS title.

Two months from now the rematch hype will be gone.

The thing is, all it takes is for 7 members on the committee to say that Louisville is better than Washington. If that happens, Louisville is in, Washington is out.

(10-06-2016 04:24 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing is, all it takes is for 7 members on the committee to say that Louisville is better than Washington. If that happens, Louisville is in, Washington is out.

The thing is, all it takes is for 7 members on the committee to say that Washington is better than Louisville. If that happens, Washington is in, Louisville is out