So, I've been keeping track of wins/losses towards being bowl eligible for FBS teams since the beginning of the season. I've already had it posted over on gsufans, and have started giving weekly updates, so I thought I'd bring it over here to the Sun Belt boards.

I've started a Wix site where you can view all the detailed information. Update posts will generally be basic info. View the site here: http://bit.do/Eligibility

I don't check these boards all that regularly, so please use the contact page to report any errors you may notice.

Starting next week we should have our first teams reach eligibility.

Week 5 Update

1 Win to Eligibility:

Alabama
Baylor
Clemson
Houston
Michigan
Nebraska
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Washington
Western Michigan


2 wins to eligibility:

Air Force
Arizona State
Arkansas
Boise State
Colorado
Eastern Michigan
Florida
Louisville
Maryland
Miami
Middle Tennessee
North Carolina
Ohio State
South Florida
Southern Mississippi
Troy
Utah
Wake Forest
West Virginia
Wisconsin


2 Losses from statistical elimination:

Miami (OH)
Rice

As long as we take care of GA State in 2 weeks... the USA game will be huge. We have a bye this week.

(10-02-2016 09:05 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  As long as we take care of GA State in 2 weeks... the USA game will be huge. We have a bye this week.

The Jags do also.

FYI - UNC plays two FCS again this year, so they need 7 wins to become BE.

(10-04-2016 02:28 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  FYI - UNC plays two FCS again this year, so they need 7 wins to become BE.

They'll probably get them.

Army plays 2 FCS as well. They might not get the wins they need though. So they have 3 now. Plus 1 of the FCS games, and they'll need 3 from (@Wake, @Duke, AFA, UNT, Notre Dame (neutral site) and Navy (neutral site). I have the UNT game as a probable win. They'll need to pull off some upsets.

Records

Troy: Needs 2. Remaining: GaSt, @USA, UMass, App, stAte, @TxSt, @GaSo.
Georgia Southern: Needs 3. Remaining: @stAte, @GT, @NMSU, App, @Ole Miss, ULL, @GaSt, Troy
USA: Needs 3. Remaining: @stAte, Troy, GaSt, @ULM, @LSU, @Idaho, NMSU
App: Needs 3. Remaining: @ULL, Idaho, @GaSo, TxSt, @Troy, ULM, @NMSU
ULL: Needs 4. Remaining: App, @TxSt, Idaho, @GaSo, @Georgia, @stAte, ULM
TxSt: Needs 4. Remaining: @GaSt, @ULM, ULL, @App, Idaho, @NMSU, Troy, stAte
NMSU: Needs 4. Remaining: @Idaho, @TexasA&M, @ArkSt, TxSt, AppSt, @USA
Idaho: Needs 4. Remaining: @ULM, NMSU, @App, @ULL, @TxSt, USA, GaSt
ULM: Needs 5. Remaining: Idaho, TxSt, @NewMexico, @ArkSt, USA, @GaSt, @App, @ULL,
stAte: Needs 6. Remaining: GaSo, USA, ULM, @GaSt, NMSU, @Troy, @ULL, @TxSt
GaSt: Needs 6. Remaining: TxSt, @Troy, Tenn-Martin, @USA, stAte, ULM, GaSo

Here's how I see it.

Really likely

Troy (2 wins needed): Double digit favorites GaSt, UMass, and @Texas State. Single touchdown favorites: App, USA, ArkSt. Slight favorite: @GaSo. Basically bowling barring a complete collapse. They could win out. Doubtful they do. Bowling probability (99%)

Georgia Southern (3 wins needed): Double digit favorites vs. ULL, @Ga State. Single touchdown favorite: @NMSU,@stAte. Slight favorite: None. Tossup. App. Slight dog. Troy. Significant dog. @GT. Huge dog. @Ole Miss. Georgia Southern's position is good, but surprisingly tenuous if they slip as many of their must wins are on the road. They'll make it. Bowling probability: 90%

App: (3 wins needed): Double digit favorites vs. @ULL, Idaho, @NMSU, TxSt. ULM Single TD favorites: none. Slight favorite: None. Tossup: @GaSo. Slight underdog: @Troy. They're in, barring a complete collapse. They could also win out. They won't, but they could. Bowling probability: 97%

Likely

USA: (3 wins needed): Double digit favorites: NMSU. Single TD favorites: GaSt, @ULM. Slight favorites: @stAte, @Idaho. Significant dog. Troy. Huge dog: @LSU. Very inconsistent play, but very doable schedule. Will have to win a game or two on the road though. Win at stAte and they can start planning around a bowl bid. Bowl probability: 82%. Note, they were this high last time last year and blew it.

Maybe: 1 or 2 will probably get there.

Texas State (4 wins needed): Slight favorites: ArkSt, Idaho, ULL, Toss up: @ULM Slight dog: @NMSU, Significant dog: @GaSt (although I think they win this one). Huge dog: Troy. They have a path, and even a spare, but they don't have much margin. They could really, really, really use a win in Atlanta this weekend. Win it and their chances go up much higher. Bowl probability: 55%

ULL: (4 wins needed): Significant favorites: Idaho, ULM. Toss up: @ArkSt. Slight dog: @TexSt. Significant dog: App, @GaSo. Huge dog. @ Georgia. This one is slipping away from the Cajuns, but they can do it. I'm thinking that they fail on this one. They'll probably spend the offseason regretting that close loss to NMSU and the 4OT loss to Tulane. October 22 game at Texas State is looking like an elimination game for ULL. Bowl probability: 40%

NMSU (4 wins needed): Slight favorite: TxSt Toss up: @Idaho. Slight dog: @ArkSt. Significant dog: @USA, @GaSo, App, Huge dog: Texas A&M. They're really in trouble. They have to win vs. Texas State, @Idaho, @ Ark State, and then find an upset somewhere. I'm not seeing it. Bowl probability: 20%

Idaho (4 wins needed): Slight favorite: GaSt. Toss up: NMSU, @ULM Slight dog: USA, @TxSt. Significant dog: @ULL, @App. They have a surprisingly achievable path to a bowl. They even have a spare within the slight dog category or better. Bowl probability: 35%

Ark State (6 wins needed): Slight favorite: NMSU, ULM Tossup: ULL, @GaSt Slight dog: @TxSt, USA. Significant dog: GaSo, @Troy. While the schedule is pretty managable, I don't think stAte manages it. They'd have to finish up 6-2. My opinion could change if stAte wins tomorrow, but for now. Bowl probability: 30%.

Highly Doubtful

ULM (5 wins needed): Favored: None. Tossup: Idaho, TxSt, @GaSt Slight dog: @stAte, @UNM Significant dog: @ULL, USA, @App. ULM isn't that bad, and I don't think they lose out, but looking at the schedule for them...its pretty daunting. They need to show a lot of improvement - now. Basically Idaho is an elimination game for them. Bowl probability: 5%

Ga State (6 wins needed): Favored: UT-Martin, TxSt (although I'm not seeing it) Tossup: ULM, ArkSt, Slight dog: @Idaho. Significant dog: @USA. GaSo, @Troy. They aren't this bad, and they'll sneak up on someone, but there's just too much ground to cover, I'm afraid. Bowl probability: 10%

(10-04-2016 02:35 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-04-2016 02:28 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  FYI - UNC plays two FCS again this year, so they need 7 wins to become BE.

They'll probably get them.

Army plays 2 FCS as well. They might not get the wins they need though. So they have 3 now. Plus 1 of the FCS games, and they'll need 3 from (@Wake, @Duke, AFA, UNT, Notre Dame (neutral site) and Navy (neutral site). I have the UNT game as a probable win. They'll need to pull off some upsets.

I think Army gets Navy this year

(10-04-2016 04:02 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Records

Troy: Needs 2. Remaining: GaSt, @USA, UMass, App, stAte, @TxSt, @GaSo.
Georgia Southern: Needs 3. Remaining: @stAte, @GT, @NMSU, App, @Ole Miss, ULL, @GaSt, Troy
USA: Needs 3. Remaining: @stAte, Troy, GaSt, @ULM, @LSU, @Idaho, NMSU
App: Needs 3. Remaining: @ULL, Idaho, @GaSo, TxSt, @Troy, ULM, @NMSU
ULL: Needs 4. Remaining: App, @TxSt, Idaho, @GaSo, @Georgia, @stAte, ULM
TxSt: Needs 4. Remaining: @GaSt, @ULM, ULL, @App, Idaho, @NMSU, Troy, stAte
NMSU: Needs 4. Remaining: @Idaho, @TexasA&M, @ArkSt, TxSt, AppSt, @USA
Idaho: Needs 4. Remaining: @ULM, NMSU, @App, @ULL, @TxSt, USA, GaSt
ULM: Needs 5. Remaining: Idaho, TxSt, @NewMexico, @ArkSt, USA, @GaSt, @App, @ULL,
stAte: Needs 6. Remaining: GaSo, USA, ULM, @GaSt, NMSU, @Troy, @ULL, @TxSt
GaSt: Needs 6. Remaining: TxSt, @Troy, Tenn-Martin, @USA, stAte, ULM, GaSo

Here's how I see it.

Really likely

Troy (2 wins needed): Double digit favorites GaSt, UMass, and @Texas State. Single touchdown favorites: App, USA, ArkSt. Slight favorite: @GaSo. Basically bowling barring a complete collapse. They could win out. Doubtful they do. Bowling probability (99%)

Georgia Southern (3 wins needed): Double digit favorites vs. ULL, @Ga State. Single touchdown favorite: @NMSU,@stAte. Slight favorite: None. Tossup. App. Slight dog. Troy. Significant dog. @GT. Huge dog. @Ole Miss. Georgia Southern's position is good, but surprisingly tenuous if they slip as many of their must wins are on the road. They'll make it. Bowling probability: 90%

App: (3 wins needed): Double digit favorites vs. @ULL, Idaho, @NMSU, TxSt. ULM Single TD favorites: none. Slight favorite: None. Tossup: @GaSo. Slight underdog: @Troy. They're in, barring a complete collapse. They could also win out. They won't, but they could. Bowling probability: 97%

Likely

USA: (3 wins needed): Double digit favorites: NMSU. Single TD favorites: GaSt, @ULM. Slight favorites: @stAte, @Idaho. Significant dog. Troy. Huge dog: @LSU. Very inconsistent play, but very doable schedule. Will have to win a game or two on the road though. Win at stAte and they can start planning around a bowl bid. Bowl probability: 82%. Note, they were this high last time last year and blew it.

Maybe: 1 or 2 will probably get there.

Texas State (4 wins needed): Slight favorites: ArkSt, Idaho, ULL, Toss up: @ULM Slight dog: @NMSU, Significant dog: @GaSt (although I think they win this one). Huge dog: Troy. They have a path, and even a spare, but they don't have much margin. They could really, really, really use a win in Atlanta this weekend. Win it and their chances go up much higher. Bowl probability: 55%

ULL: (4 wins needed): Significant favorites: Idaho, ULM. Toss up: @ArkSt. Slight dog: @TexSt. Significant dog: App, @GaSo. Huge dog. @ Georgia. This one is slipping away from the Cajuns, but they can do it. I'm thinking that they fail on this one. They'll probably spend the offseason regretting that close loss to NMSU and the 4OT loss to Tulane. October 22 game at Texas State is looking like an elimination game for ULL. Bowl probability: 40%

NMSU (4 wins needed): Slight favorite: TxSt Toss up: @Idaho. Slight dog: @ArkSt. Significant dog: @USA, @GaSo, App, Huge dog: Texas A&M. They're really in trouble. They have to win vs. Texas State, @Idaho, @ Ark State, and then find an upset somewhere. I'm not seeing it. Bowl probability: 20%

Idaho (4 wins needed): Slight favorite: GaSt. Toss up: NMSU, @ULM Slight dog: USA, @TxSt. Significant dog: @ULL, @App. They have a surprisingly achievable path to a bowl. They even have a spare within the slight dog category or better. Bowl probability: 35%

Ark State (6 wins needed): Slight favorite: NMSU, ULM Tossup: ULL, @GaSt Slight dog: @TxSt, USA. Significant dog: GaSo, @Troy. While the schedule is pretty managable, I don't think stAte manages it. They'd have to finish up 6-2. My opinion could change if stAte wins tomorrow, but for now. Bowl probability: 30%.

Highly Doubtful

ULM (5 wins needed): Favored: None. Tossup: Idaho, TxSt, @GaSt Slight dog: @stAte, @UNM Significant dog: @ULL, USA, @App. ULM isn't that bad, and I don't think they lose out, but looking at the schedule for them...its pretty daunting. They need to show a lot of improvement - now. Basically Idaho is an elimination game for them. Bowl probability: 5%

Ga State (6 wins needed): Favored: UT-Martin, TxSt (although I'm not seeing it) Tossup: ULM, ArkSt, Slight dog: @Idaho. Significant dog: @USA. GaSo, @Troy. They aren't this bad, and they'll sneak up on someone, but there's just too much ground to cover, I'm afraid. Bowl probability: 10%

ULM is favored over Idaho. If we beat Idaho pretty decent chance being favored over Texas St. at home as well.

I think will get at least 5 Sunbelt schools bowling. Could get up to 6 maybe even 7

(10-05-2016 09:45 AM)Artemis Silver Bow Wrote:  I think will get at least 5 Sunbelt schools bowling. Could get up to 6 maybe even 7

I think we get 5 in. 6 is kind of dicey. And 7 would require a lot of parity in conference play. Seven is possible, but its not really likely at this point.

Basically, the easiest path to 6 teams bowling is for stAte, ULM, Idaho or ULL, Ga State, and NMSU to basically lay down for the rest of the season. And the bottom of the Belt isn't that bad this year. They might have bad records, but they're not that bad.

I'm curiously optimistic. we are already a victory away from matching last year's win total.

Would be pretty crazy if THIS is the year we finally make a bowl.

(10-05-2016 09:57 AM)bokobobcat1919 Wrote:  I'm curiously optimistic. we are a victory away from matching last year's win total.

Would be pretty crazy if THIS is the year we finally make a bowl.

That is a fair assessment. You have a really favorable schedule. You got the OOC wins so you need no more than a 4-4 SBC record to bowl. No USA. No Georgia Southern.

But you really need to win at least 1 of your next 2 games (@GaSt, @ULM)

Play like you have something to play for, Bobcats. Because you do.

(10-04-2016 02:28 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  FYI - UNC plays two FCS again this year, so they need 7 wins to become BE.

Should still only need 6 wins, ending with a 6-6 record. In my interpretation, FCS wins count toward the .500 record goal, not in addition.

Here's the section from the '16-'17 NCAA Postseason Bowl Handbook on the issue of eligibility and FCS games:

Eligible Teams
An eligible team is defined as one that has won a number of games against Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) opponents that is equal to or greater than the number of its overall losses (e.g., a record of 6-6, or better).

Exception – FCS Opponent
Each year, a FBS institution may count one victory against a Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) opponent that has averaged 90 percent of the permissible maximum number of grants-in-aid per year in football during a rolling two-year period. However, The Football Issues Committee may approve a waiver of the 90 percent requirement to permit a FBS institution to count a victory against a FCS opponent toward meeting the definition of a “deserving team,” if a unique or catastrophic situation affects the FCS institution’s ability to average 90 percent of the permissible maximum number of football grants-in-aid per year during a rolling two year period.


So here's MY interpretation of the rule. An FBS team basically has to go .500 or better to be eligible for a post season bowl. The vast majority of teams play a 12 game schedule. That means obtaining at the minimum a 6-6 record. In the case of UNC, Army, and there's I believe 1 more... that play 2 FCS teams, they are still only required to go .500 however they can only count one win (should they beat both teams). So they would still only technically need 6 "qualifying" wins, even if they win against both FCS teams, just one wouldn't count.

So for an example, let's say UNC only plays 1 FCS game in the first 6 weeks. They go 6-0. They would be eligible right then. Regardless of if they play another FCS team in say, week 10.
Where on the other hand, Army plays FCS teams in weeks 1 and 5, and also goes 6-0. They would not yet be eligible because one of those FCS wins doesn't count.

More or less, even if they lose both FCS games, they'd still only need 6 wins.

The only case in which a team would need 7 wins would be in the instance of Hawaii or any team playing 13 games that season. Because with 13 games to be at least .500 at the end of the season you'd have to go 7-6 (because 6-7 < .500). And Hawaii is the only team this year playing 13. The table reflects that they need 7.

I could be interpreting it wrong, and if you take a different interpretation if you'd explain it better that'd be helpful.

(10-05-2016 04:45 PM)Venaros Wrote:  

(10-04-2016 02:28 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  FYI - UNC plays two FCS again this year, so they need 7 wins to become BE.

Should still only need 6 wins, ending with a 6-6 record. In my interpretation, FCS wins count toward the .500 record goal, not in addition.

Here's the section from the '16-'17 NCAA Postseason Bowl Handbook on the issue of eligibility and FCS games:

Eligible Teams
An eligible team is defined as one that has won a number of games against Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) opponents that is equal to or greater than the number of its overall losses (e.g., a record of 6-6, or better).

Exception – FCS Opponent
Each year, a FBS institution may count one victory against a Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) opponent that has averaged 90 percent of the permissible maximum number of grants-in-aid per year in football during a rolling two-year period. However, The Football Issues Committee may approve a waiver of the 90 percent requirement to permit a FBS institution to count a victory against a FCS opponent toward meeting the definition of a “deserving team,” if a unique or catastrophic situation affects the FCS institution’s ability to average 90 percent of the permissible maximum number of football grants-in-aid per year during a rolling two year period.


So here's MY interpretation of the rule. An FBS team basically has to go .500 or better to be eligible for a post season bowl. The vast majority of teams play a 12 game schedule. That means obtaining at the minimum a 6-6 record. In the case of UNC, Army, and there's I believe 1 more... that play 2 FCS teams, they are still only required to go .500 however they can only count one win (should they beat both teams). So they would still only technically need 6 "qualifying" wins, even if they win against both FCS teams, just one wouldn't count.

So for an example, let's say UNC only plays 1 FCS game in the first 6 weeks. They go 6-0. They would be eligible right then. Regardless of if they play another FCS team in say, week 10.
Where on the other hand, Army plays FCS teams in weeks 1 and 5, and also goes 6-0. They would not yet be eligible because one of those FCS wins doesn't count.

More or less, even if they lose both FCS games, they'd still only need 6 wins.

The only case in which a team would need 7 wins would be in the instance of Hawaii or any team playing 13 games that season. Because with 13 games to be at least .500 at the end of the season you'd have to go 7-6 (because 6-7 < .500). And Hawaii is the only team this year playing 13. The table reflects that they need 7.

I could be interpreting it wrong, and if you take a different interpretation if you'd explain it better that'd be helpful.

You're not. You're 100% spot on.

(10-05-2016 04:45 PM)Venaros Wrote:  

(10-04-2016 02:28 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  FYI - UNC plays two FCS again this year, so they need 7 wins to become BE.

Should still only need 6 wins, ending with a 6-6 record. In my interpretation, FCS wins count toward the .500 record goal, not in addition.

...

So for an example, let's say UNC only plays 1 FCS game in the first 6 weeks. They go 6-0. They would be eligible right then. Regardless of if they play another FCS team in say, week 10.
Where on the other hand, Army plays FCS teams in weeks 1 and 5, and also goes 6-0. They would not yet be eligible because one of those FCS wins doesn't count.

I also think you're correct on this, but there's probably a * to go with that first statement.

What's interesting about the examples you gave is that if you consider the worst case scenarios for each team, you have 6-6 UNC bowling and 6-6 Army not...specifically because UNC would have lost to an FCS team, while Army didn't! It looks like the rules let UNC slip by because that nasty FCS loss can be disregarded, and you can just treat them as a 6-5 team.

(10-05-2016 05:11 PM)Pounce FTW Wrote:  

(10-05-2016 04:45 PM)Venaros Wrote:  

(10-04-2016 02:28 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  FYI - UNC plays two FCS again this year, so they need 7 wins to become BE.

Should still only need 6 wins, ending with a 6-6 record. In my interpretation, FCS wins count toward the .500 record goal, not in addition.

...

So for an example, let's say UNC only plays 1 FCS game in the first 6 weeks. They go 6-0. They would be eligible right then. Regardless of if they play another FCS team in say, week 10.
Where on the other hand, Army plays FCS teams in weeks 1 and 5, and also goes 6-0. They would not yet be eligible because one of those FCS wins doesn't count.

I also think you're correct on this, but there's probably a * to go with that first statement.

What's interesting about the examples you gave is that if you consider the worst case scenarios for each team, you have 6-6 UNC bowling and 6-6 Army not...specifically because UNC would have lost to an FCS team, while Army didn't! It looks like the rules let UNC slip by because that nasty FCS loss can be disregarded, and you can just treat them as a 6-5 team.

If a team wins only 6 games (6 W and 6 L) and two of those wins are against FCS teams, they are going to be one win short.

10 FBS games, 2 FCS games

4 FBS wins, 6 FBS losses

for bowl eligbility, all 4 FBS wins and one FCS win count, a total of 5 wins that count.
for bowl eligibility, all six losses count

Therefore

of the games that count, the record is 5 wins and 6 losses which is not qualifying.

Any FBS team that plays 2 FCS teams may only count 1 towards bowl eligibility. If they win both of those games, they must have 5 OTHER wins to be BE. In your scenario where they go 6-0 with 1 FCS win, yes they are already in, but only because they have 5 FBS wins to go with their 1 FCS win. So they do not need 7 wins if one of their LOSSES is to an FCS school. If they win both their FCS games, then yes, they need 7 wins.

Right. I think we're just arguing semantics now. Everyone basically agrees. The magic number to get to is six. I will count only one FCS win.

I hope South does make it too a bowl and win it especially after the way the season is going, but it isn't a sure bet to go. We never have beat Ark State (0-4), and they just beat Ga Southern and committed 5 turnovers. Troy looks pretty good this year and we will likely lose to them. I think we should beat Monroe. We have to beat Idaho, Ga State, New Mexico State to make a bowl. New Mexico State can score points and moved the ball pretty well against Troy before turning over the ball. I think LSU will notice that we beat Miss State and San Diego State, I don't think we will win it. I think losing the game to Louisiana is going to come back and bite us. Somehow I see us winning a total of 5 games, I hope I will be wrong.

Lets not forget, the second FCS win still counts for something - If not enough teams get to 6-6, the second FCS game is counted and the team will be bowl eligible before any 5-7 teams.