Piggybacking off of Rocco's post, I wanted to see the relative defensive ranking of each conference champion within that team's respective conference for 2016. Not surprisingly, nearly every conference champion had one of the better, if not the best team defenses relative to the rest of its conference. I was able to put this together with a little excel finagling of the free, master statistical table listed on the KenPom site (I don't have an account either).
  Basketball def.png (Size: 31.21 KB / Downloads: 23)

Something about offense wins games, defense wins championships, right?

Is that regular season or conference tourney champion?

I mentioned this before, but Cinderellas haven't had much joy in the CAA tourney. The tourney's been won by the following seeds:

1995: #1 over #3
1996: #1 over #3
1997: #1 over #6
1998: #3 over #1
1999: #1 over #2
2000: #4 over #3
2001: #2 over #1 (a 35-33 game that I hope all footage of has been burned)
2002: #1 over #3
2003: #1 over #3
2004: #1 over #3
2005: #1 over #2
2006: #1 over #3
2007: #1 over #6
2008: #3 over #5
2009: #1 over #2
2010: #1 over #3
2011: #2 over #4
2012: #2 over #1
2013: #3 over #1
2014: #1 over #3
2015: #3 over #1
2016: #2 over #1

That's 13 1 seeds, 4 2 seeds, 4 3 seeds, and a 4 seed.I thought the departures of ODU, VCU and GMU might make the tournaments more unpredictable but that hasn't happened yet. This is not to say that a poor team can never win the CAA, just that it's yet to happen. Over that time period in the NEC, which gives the top seed home court advantage- 8 #1 seeds, 7 #2 seeds, 3 #3 seeds, 2 #4 seeds, and a #6 and #7 seed. The ACC? 10 #1 seeds, 5 #2 seeds, 6 #3 seeds and a #6 seed. I picked those two conferences at random- if anyone else wants to check other conferences that would be nice.

So to recap, if W&M wants to get to the NCAA tourney they just need to be in the top 4 of the CAA defensively and a top 3 seed in the conference. Simple enough, right?

(10-12-2016 10:21 AM)hktribefan Wrote:  Something about offense wins games, defense wins championships, right?

Well, Villanova won a title last year by basically getting white-hot from 3 point range for 6 straight games. That doesn't happen too often. I put the KenPom rankings for CAA offenses in a table as well but I'm at work and it's on my home computer.

My table showed conference tournament champions. Would probably also be interesting to display regular season conference champion and relative offensive ranking - maybe will add these another time.

(10-12-2016 10:28 AM)Rocco Wrote:  Is that regular season or conference tourney champion?

I mentioned this before, but Cinderellas haven't had much joy in the CAA tourney. The tourney's been won by the following seeds:

1995: #1 over #3
1996: #1 over #3
1997: #1 over #6
1998: #3 over #1
1999: #1 over #2
2000: #4 over #3
2001: #2 over #1 (a 35-33 game that I hope all footage of has been burned)
2002: #1 over #3
2003: #1 over #3
2004: #1 over #3
2005: #1 over #2
2006: #1 over #3
2007: #1 over #6
2008: #3 over #5
2009: #1 over #2
2010: #1 over #3
2011: #2 over #4
2012: #2 over #1
2013: #3 over #1
2014: #1 over #3
2015: #3 over #1
2016: #2 over #1

That's 13 1 seeds, 4 2 seeds, 4 3 seeds, and a 4 seed.I thought the departures of ODU, VCU and GMU might make the tournaments more unpredictable but that hasn't happened yet. This is not to say that a poor team can never win the CAA, just that it's yet to happen. Over that time period in the NEC, which gives the top seed home court advantage- 8 #1 seeds, 7 #2 seeds, 3 #3 seeds, 2 #4 seeds, and a #6 and #7 seed. The ACC? 10 #1 seeds, 5 #2 seeds, 6 #3 seeds and a #6 seed. I picked those two conferences at random- if anyone else wants to check other conferences that would be nice.

So to recap, if W&M wants to get to the NCAA tourney they just need to be in the top 4 of the CAA defensively and a top 3 seed in the conference. Simple enough, right?

It helped that until a few years ago, the 1-4 seeds had one less game to play. Winning four games in four days is tough for a 5+ seed.

(10-11-2016 08:43 PM)ocfrank Wrote:  

(10-07-2016 11:04 PM)Tribal Wrote:  Full court pressure leads to a lot of reach in fouls. I'd rather NOT see Tot have to play a bunch of minutes because Cohn is riding the bench in foul trouble.



One Tribe. One Family.

This is misguided. Tot should be on the point.

Okay, so guide me. What, exactly, has Tot done to tell you that he is a plug-n-play at point? Maybe it's a game high of 4 points, or his 2 points 1 assist and 1 rebound a game? Go ahead, enlighten me as to how Tot isn't a significant drop-off from Cohn.

One Tribe. One Family.

I think it was the JMU game (first round of last year's tournament) where Tot came in to save the day at point after Cohn got two quick fouls early.

That said, Cohn is the top point we have and has the potential to be the best we have ever had.

(10-12-2016 03:13 PM)tribeinexile Wrote:  I think it was the JMU game (first round of last year's tournament) where Tot came in to save the day at point after Cohn got two quick fouls early.

That said, Cohn is the top point we have and has the potential to be the best we have ever had.

Keith Cieplicki played point for his first 3 seasons at W&M, Marcus ran point his last couple of seasons and Randy Bracye was a point guard. Being the best ever W&M point guard would be quite an honor, I hope you are right.

(10-12-2016 03:13 PM)tribeinexile Wrote:  I think it was the JMU game (first round of last year's tournament) where Tot came in to save the day at point after Cohn got two quick fouls early.

That said, Cohn is the top point we have and has the potential to be the best we have ever had.

It's a small sample size with Tot since he doesn't have a ton of minutes but the numbers are pretty clear that Cohn adds a lot more to the offense.

I thought Scott Coval was the PG when Ceiplicki played.

Thornton was a great guard but I thought he played out of position when he played at point. Interesting article out there today with Kevin McHale commenting on how hard it will be for Harden to be a successful PG because he is a scorer first.

You got me on Bracy. He played during "the dark times" for me when I didn't follow the Tribe so closely so I can't comment on him.

Cieplicki and Coval overlapped three years. Cieplicki graduated in 85 and Coval in 86. Traver was also on some of those teams and he played some point also.

(10-12-2016 05:16 PM)tribeinexile Wrote:  I thought Scott Coval was the PG when Ceiplicki played.

Thornton was a great guard but I thought he played out of position when he played at point. Interesting article out there today with Kevin McHale commenting on how hard it will be for Harden to be a successful PG because he is a scorer first.

You got me on Bracy. He played during "the dark times" for me when I didn't follow the Tribe so closely so I can't comment on him.

(10-12-2016 03:50 PM)Rocco Wrote:  

(10-12-2016 03:13 PM)tribeinexile Wrote:  I think it was the JMU game (first round of last year's tournament) where Tot came in to save the day at point after Cohn got two quick fouls early.

That said, Cohn is the top point we have and has the potential to be the best we have ever had.

It's a small sample size with Tot since he doesn't have a ton of minutes but the numbers are pretty clear that Cohn adds a lot more to the offense.

Right, and that's because the coaches know more about Tot than our Tribe fan in Orange County.

My goal wasn't to belittle Oliver. My point is we NEED Cohn to remain eligible to play a full game. He obviously can't do that with 3 fouls in the first half.

One Tribe. One Family.

(10-12-2016 07:18 PM)Tribe32 Wrote:  Cieplicki and Coval overlapped three years. Cieplicki graduated in 85 and Coval in 86. Traver was also on some of those teams and he played some point also.

(10-12-2016 05:16 PM)tribeinexile Wrote:  I thought Scott Coval was the PG when Ceiplicki played.

Thornton was a great guard but I thought he played out of position when he played at point. Interesting article out there today with Kevin McHale commenting on how hard it will be for Harden to be a successful PG because he is a scorer first.

You got me on Bracy. He played during "the dark times" for me when I didn't follow the Tribe so closely so I can't comment on him.

Covall only started at point in Keith's senior year, his first 3 years he ran the point.

Now if you wanted to say that neither keith nor Marcus were "true" point guards, I would agree. But Bracey played point and if he had stayed healthy, would have been a conference player of the year.

I agree on Bracey. His injury prior to the tourney cost us that year. He was an excellent player and elevated everyone on the team with his play which is what you hope for with a great point guard. Charlie did such a good job with that team. Along with the 2014-15 team(and maybe 2013-14?), it was the best of the last 20 years. Is it too early to be a little excited about this year's team. I won't predict great things for them(jumping ahead is always a mistake), but I am eager to see how Tony is able to get them to develop as the year progresses. Love Cohn, Omar, Malinowski, Burchfield and Dixon. Hoping for big things from the new freshmen. Finally, it will be interesting to see how Whitman, Seacat and Tot utilize their opportunities for more minutes.

No slight on the 2009-2010 team either. They were fun and I loved the wins over Wake and Maryland that season.

(10-13-2016 10:52 AM)TribePride91 Wrote:  I agree on Bracey. His injury prior to the tourney cost us that year. He was an excellent player and elevated everyone on the team with his play which is what you hope for with a great point guard. Charlie did such a good job with that team. Along with the 2014-15 team(and maybe 2013-14?), it was the best of the last 20 years. Is it too early to be a little excited about this year's team. I won't predict great things for them(jumping ahead is always a mistake), but I am eager to see how Tony is able to get them to develop as the year progresses. Love Cohn, Omar, Malinowski, Burchfield and Dixon. Hoping for big things from the new freshmen. Finally, it will be interesting to see how Whitman, Seacat and Tot utilize their opportunities for more minutes.

No slight on the 2009-2010 team either. They were fun and I loved the wins over Wake and Maryland that season.

My concern is defense. We lost probably the best all around defender the Tribe has had in decades in Tarpey and our primary interior defender in Sheldon off of a team that wasn't great defensively.

The great 1996-1997 Tribe team was beautiful to watch on offense, but it was also a great defensive team.

I hope Tony can figure out a way that this team can maintain the free flowing offense while playing better team defense. We can be in the hunt without great defense, but I bet we don't win the tournament without it.

NCTribe,

I cannot argue with that. I am hoping that Knight, Whitman or Seacat can provide better inside rebounding which also helps team defense. Much like when we lost Thornton offensively, it is hard to imagine we will be better defensively without Tarpey. But strange things happen, UVA reached the Final Four the year after Ralph Sampson graduated, and Tennessee won a National Title in football the year after Peyton Manning graduated.

Having graduated 25 years ago, I do wish for a CAA championship and an NCAA berth for these guys and for Tony. When I attended and He Who Shall Not be Named was coach, the concept of 3 straight 20 win seasons and 3 straight trips to the CAA Semifinals would have been like winning the Powerball lottery. I like the way the Tribe plays offense and shoots the ball and I really like the players the team has had the last 10 years. They are easy to root for and I would love to watch them celebrate in March. So many guys have gotten the chance to play in a CAA final. It seems like there will be some fun games along the way this year. I'll try and post the big OOC CAA games sometime before the end of this month. It is always nice to have to see what games in Nov and Dec. can help the Tribe and the conference. There will be several opportunities to see how we measure up. My biggest hope is that we can avoid the bad losses this year(below 200 in the RPI). It would be nice to also win at least one of our big non-conference road games(I think there are only 3(Louisville, Duke and Rhode Island).

Randy Bracey was not the player who got hurt prior to The CAA Tournament against American U. It was Jim Moran. Now, Bracey did hurt himself during the game, just came down wrong and twisted his ankle after shooting a jumper. He did try to play on after it having it wrapped but was not the same player. Jim Moran was just as important a player with his skills and basketball smarts. This was a fun team to watch play .

Just another example of being a Tribe fan can be tough

What I will always remember from that game was Dick Tarrant walking into Robins during the second half, looking up the scoreboard and shaking his head in disbelief.

On to the Tribe in the present, I think that Shaver is absolutely right in focusing on competitiveness for this team. Its natural DNA is to be skilled offensively and soft defensively and on the boards. That's entertaining basketball but not a winning formula.

I suspect that's why Cohn is one of the captains. He sometimes crosses over the line but he is tough and vocal.

Not proud to say this but you knew our tournament game against Hofstra was going to more competitive than the prior two games last season about one minute (and one foul) into the game.

I just noticed on Twitter, that Hunter Seacat was dismissed from the team for team rules violations, That is a shame he had a lot of potential. I hope he can be reinstated at some time