(09-23-2016 10:02 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 09:32 AM)Wedge Wrote:  "Nobody agrees on the teams right now," one Big 12 official noted.

Doesn't sound much different that any other high level negotiation. We're still almost a month out from the October 17 meeting. Was anyone really expecting 'agreement' to be leaked through a writer.. much less a beat writer for ESPN?

How long has the Big 12 speculation about expansion been going? I find it REALLY hard to believe that they can't figure out who they want by now.

(09-23-2016 10:41 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 10:19 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Maybe the compromise should be Texas picks 1 school and Oklahoma picks 1 school to get to 12. I would assume Texas picks Houston not sure who ou would pick but probably from the pool of cincy, uconn and byu.

I think that's what's basically happened....

I think Texas liked BYU and is forced to like UH...

I think the non-Texas schools don't want another Texas team. I think Oklahoma likes Cincinnati and UConn....grabbing Cincinnati is making up for letting Louisville go

Texas is probably ok with letting BYU go, but there is a lot of political pressure to add UH. I don't think UT gives a crap about UConn, or the Florida teams either...

so there you have it...irreconcilable differences

add in the fact that this conference will NEVER have a TV network, which the other P5 conferences have....

I think this conference is headed for hard times. I think it will still exist in the end, and keep an autobid, but I think massive change is coming for it

I think this is probably about right. Currently, those that prefer "other" schools have enough votes to block the OU and UT preferences. So, its not in their interests to give in with the meeting not scheduled until October 17th. My guess is that those blocking schools will want some sort of concession in exchange for releasing their block and their negotiating leverage will be greatest at that Oct 17th meeting. They wont get UT/OU to agree to a GOR extension, but they may get some sort of scheduling or monetary concession from UT/OU that has value to these other schools.

(09-23-2016 10:46 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Well,

Texas and Kansas to Big 10.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to the SEC.

And then there were 6 desperate schools:

West Virginia
Iowa State
Kansas State
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech

Unless you are willing to wait until the end (or near end) of the GoR, this really doesn't work well. I'm not sure it works even then.

The B1G doesn't need to do anything now, and neither do either the SEC or ACC. The only P5 IMO who could benefit greatly by expanding, AND could do so from a position of strength, is the PAC. Their network could use an infusion of eyeballs, and only the state of Texas could fill that need. For them, OU, OSU, UT and KS would be a grand slam home run.

But for anything like that to happen, it would almost require a summit like negotiation that includes the stump Big XII, ESPN, FOX, the other P5 conferences and the bowls that are part of the CFP.

IMO, it would require that the stump B12 waive exit fees and let their departed members have their media rights back immediately. In exchange, they add Houston, Cincy, UConn, Colorado State, plus BYU and Boise for FB only, and they are guaranteed to keep their P5 status for the duration of the CFP agreement plus "x" years extension to that agreement. The media partners would have to agree to give them P5 type money - maybe less than the other four, but still substantial (north of $18MM).

With all those moving parts, though, it would take diplomatic skills that would make Henry Kissinger look like an amateur. That's why I think something very much like the status quo is the most likely outcome.

Anytime I see B12 in the title of a post, the circus theme song starts playing in my head. Wired. Anyone else?

(09-23-2016 11:26 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  Anytime I see B12 in the title of a post, the circus theme song starts playing in my head. Wired. Anyone else?

It never is any Big 12 person posting them.

The fact that Air Force presented to the big 12 is huge so that must mean they want in I would assume as a football only.

(09-23-2016 11:22 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 10:46 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Well,

Texas and Kansas to Big 10.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to the SEC.

And then there were 6 desperate schools:

West Virginia
Iowa State
Kansas State
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech

Unless you are willing to wait until the end (or near end) of the GoR, this really doesn't work well. I'm not sure it works even then.

The B1G doesn't need to do anything now, and neither do either the SEC or ACC. The only P5 IMO who could benefit greatly by expanding, AND could do so from a position of strength, is the PAC. Their network could use an infusion of eyeballs, and only the state of Texas could fill that need. For them, OU, OSU, UT and KS would be a grand slam home run.

But for anything like that to happen, it would almost require a summit like negotiation that includes the stump Big XII, ESPN, FOX, the other P5 conferences and the bowls that are part of the CFP.

IMO, it would require that the stump B12 waive exit fees and let their departed members have their media rights back immediately. In exchange, they add Houston, Cincy, UConn, Colorado State, BYU and Boise, and they are guaranteed to keep their P5 status for the duration of the CFP agreement plus "x" years extension to that agreement. The media partners would have to agree to give them P5 type money - maybe less than the other four, but still substantial (north of $18MM).

With all those moving parts, though, it would take diplomatic skills that would make Henry Kissinger look like an amateur. That's why I think something very much like the status quo is the most likely outcome.

I doubt you can get that GOR extension or any guarantee from the networks. That's why I think the northern schools are going to blink. Those northern schools are the schools that actually NEED expansion the most. The better, larger, and sooner expansion occurs the better for those left behind. They need the best schools to be picked. They need the biggest expansion possible. and they need to it occur as soon as possible. Bigger and sooner means a bigger "stump" is left and "sooner" allows the new schools 8 full years to grow in the public perception as real bonafide P5 schools---which will help the media value of the Big12 stump conference when the GOR expires.

It's common in complex negotiations to go through a period when it seems like no one will compromise and no agreement will be reached. And then in the end the parties all accept the reality that brought them to the negotiating table in the first place -- they're better off with some deal than no deal -- and a consensus emerges. I think that will happen here and I still expect Cincinnati and Houston to get invitations.

(09-23-2016 11:21 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 10:02 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 09:32 AM)Wedge Wrote:  "Nobody agrees on the teams right now," one Big 12 official noted.

Doesn't sound much different that any other high level negotiation. We're still almost a month out from the October 17 meeting. Was anyone really expecting 'agreement' to be leaked through a writer.. much less a beat writer for ESPN?

How long has the Big 12 speculation about expansion been going? I find it REALLY hard to believe that they can't figure out who they want by now.

The problem is that there are a lot of really good contenders, but no GREAT contenders.

UH/UC/UConn/BYU/USF/UCF all have pros and some cons. Even schools like SDSU, CSU, BSU etc are in that same tier. But none of those schools are blue bloods that move the needle much.

And frankly, not really sure any of the schools added to a Power conference in the last 10 years or so are any different than these candidates. Obviously Louisville has thrived, others not so much. WVU is probably the closest to a slam dunk as any.

I still honestly think that the best thing for the big 12 to do is grab BYU for football only and Cincy for all sports. That gets them into Ohio and expands the tv footprint substantially. In addition, it is a rival for WVU. They have been pretty good at football over the past decade and have been good at basketball seemingly forever.

The big 12 could go to 20 games in basketball (like the ACC is doing) and keep the double round robin.

BYU probably has the best football brand in terms of success, eyeballs, and attendance. By adding BYU as football only, the Big 12 would not have to deal with the no Sunday play issue.

It is kind of like the opposite of Notre Dame and ACC. Notre Dame wants to be independent in football but needs a place for their other sports. BYU has a place for their other sports but needs a place for their football team.

Edit: Plus BYU does not really dilute recruiting footprint as they more or less just recruit LDS students from all over the country (mostly western USA). They would not really shift focus to Texas. Also, I imagine Cincy would just continue to recruit Ohio and Western PA and not dilute Texas recruiting too much.

(09-23-2016 11:40 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 11:21 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 10:02 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 09:32 AM)Wedge Wrote:  "Nobody agrees on the teams right now," one Big 12 official noted.

Doesn't sound much different that any other high level negotiation. We're still almost a month out from the October 17 meeting. Was anyone really expecting 'agreement' to be leaked through a writer.. much less a beat writer for ESPN?

How long has the Big 12 speculation about expansion been going? I find it REALLY hard to believe that they can't figure out who they want by now.

The problem is that there are a lot of really good contenders, but no GREAT contenders.

UH/UC/UConn/BYU/USF/UCF all have pros and some cons. Even schools like SDSU, CSU, BSU etc are in that same tier. But none of those schools are blue bloods that move the needle much.

And frankly, not really sure any of the schools added to a Power conference in the last 10 years or so are any different than these candidates. Obviously Louisville has thrived, others not so much.

yeah but this has been going on for literally months. It's not rocket science. Hell, if they're really THAT close just pick 2 and get it over with. I'm starting to believe this is all posturing by UT and OU.

(09-23-2016 11:40 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 11:21 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 10:02 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 09:32 AM)Wedge Wrote:  "Nobody agrees on the teams right now," one Big 12 official noted.

Doesn't sound much different that any other high level negotiation. We're still almost a month out from the October 17 meeting. Was anyone really expecting 'agreement' to be leaked through a writer.. much less a beat writer for ESPN?

How long has the Big 12 speculation about expansion been going? I find it REALLY hard to believe that they can't figure out who they want by now.

The problem is that there are a lot of really good contenders, but no GREAT contenders.

UH/UC/UConn/BYU/USF/UCF all have pros and some cons. Even schools like SDSU, CSU, BSU etc are in that same tier. But none of those schools are blue bloods that move the needle much.

And frankly, not really sure any of the schools added to a Power conference in the last 10 years or so are any different than these candidates. Obviously Louisville has thrived, others not so much. WVU is probably the closest to a slam dunk as any.

Uhhh....I think TCU and Utah have thrived pretty well since joining a Power Conference.

(09-23-2016 11:40 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 11:21 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 10:02 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 09:32 AM)Wedge Wrote:  "Nobody agrees on the teams right now," one Big 12 official noted.

Doesn't sound much different that any other high level negotiation. We're still almost a month out from the October 17 meeting. Was anyone really expecting 'agreement' to be leaked through a writer.. much less a beat writer for ESPN?

How long has the Big 12 speculation about expansion been going? I find it REALLY hard to believe that they can't figure out who they want by now.

The problem is that there are a lot of really good contenders, but no GREAT contenders.

UH/UC/UConn/BYU/USF/UCF all have pros and some cons. Even schools like SDSU, CSU, BSU etc are in that same tier. But none of those schools are blue bloods that move the needle much.

And frankly, not really sure any of the schools added to a Power conference in the last 10 years or so are any different than these candidates. Obviously Louisville has thrived, others not so much. WVU is probably the closest to a slam dunk as any.

If they were GREAT contenders, they would have been in a power conference before the turn of the century. There are any number of candidates that are as good as a similar number of current P5 members.

(09-23-2016 11:42 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 11:40 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 11:21 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 10:02 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 09:32 AM)Wedge Wrote:  "Nobody agrees on the teams right now," one Big 12 official noted.

Doesn't sound much different that any other high level negotiation. We're still almost a month out from the October 17 meeting. Was anyone really expecting 'agreement' to be leaked through a writer.. much less a beat writer for ESPN?

How long has the Big 12 speculation about expansion been going? I find it REALLY hard to believe that they can't figure out who they want by now.

The problem is that there are a lot of really good contenders, but no GREAT contenders.

UH/UC/UConn/BYU/USF/UCF all have pros and some cons. Even schools like SDSU, CSU, BSU etc are in that same tier. But none of those schools are blue bloods that move the needle much.

And frankly, not really sure any of the schools added to a Power conference in the last 10 years or so are any different than these candidates. Obviously Louisville has thrived, others not so much.

yeah but this has been going on for literally months. It's not rocket science. Hell, if they're really THAT close just pick 2 and get it over with. I'm starting to believe this is all posturing by UT and OU.

It's gone on much longer than months. I know for a fact the Big 12 has been studying UC and several other schools for a couple years. The whole interview process last month was a farce. They know everything there is to know about these schools and them some. The presidents of the B12 schools know the presidents of the contender schools and have spoken to them long before last month. Same with the ADs.

(09-23-2016 09:56 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 09:32 AM)Wedge Wrote:  Some of us have speculated for months that this is the big reason behind the dog-and-pony show of 20 candidates:

Quote:"Nobody agrees on the teams right now," one Big 12 official noted.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...sion-talks

The end of this article talks about whether the Big 12 will extend its grant of rights agreement, and whether Texas and Oklahoma will sign a GOR extension:

Quote:"If the two parents don't commit [to signing the extension]," said one industry source, "what does that tell you?"

Said another: The Big 12 "could be close to the end."

The end won't occur as long as UT has the LHN & GOR is in place - costs are too high for UT & OU to do anything prior to 2022-23 with effectivity in 2025-26 with expiration of GOR. And UT will still be tied to LHN until 2032 with costs too high to move prior, as long as B12 exists.

The LHN doesn't mean Texas can't move in 2025, it just means Texas can't move somewhere that ESPN isn't happy with. Since ESPN has the ACC locked up tightest, I'm sure orchestrating an ND-like hybrid arrangement with them for Texas would work for ESPN. An SEC move probably would as well. The only moves ESPN probably wouldn't want w/o getting something in return is Texas going to the B1G or Pac12.

(09-23-2016 11:32 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  It's common in complex negotiations to go through a period when it seems like no one will compromise and no agreement will be reached. And then in the end the parties all accept the reality that brought them to the negotiating table in the first place -- they're better off with some deal than no deal -- and a consensus emerges. I think that will happen here and I still expect Cincinnati and Houston to get invitations.

Agree. its too early to just give up on your stated position. Any schools is better off holding fast until the October 17th meeting. At that point, they may be able to extract some concession in exchange for "giving in" to the wishes of Oklahoma and Texas (which they are going to do anyway).

(09-23-2016 11:43 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 11:40 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 11:21 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 10:02 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 09:32 AM)Wedge Wrote:  "Nobody agrees on the teams right now," one Big 12 official noted.

Doesn't sound much different that any other high level negotiation. We're still almost a month out from the October 17 meeting. Was anyone really expecting 'agreement' to be leaked through a writer.. much less a beat writer for ESPN?

How long has the Big 12 speculation about expansion been going? I find it REALLY hard to believe that they can't figure out who they want by now.

The problem is that there are a lot of really good contenders, but no GREAT contenders.

UH/UC/UConn/BYU/USF/UCF all have pros and some cons. Even schools like SDSU, CSU, BSU etc are in that same tier. But none of those schools are blue bloods that move the needle much.

And frankly, not really sure any of the schools added to a Power conference in the last 10 years or so are any different than these candidates. Obviously Louisville has thrived, others not so much. WVU is probably the closest to a slam dunk as any.

Uhhh....I think TCU and Utah have thrived pretty well since joining a Power Conference.

That's irrelevant. Both happened (like Rutgers) to be in the right place (geographically) at the right time (a conference needed a member). There is nothing stand out about either. Not trying to be a slam against either, but at least Utah had the advantage of being a flagship. What makes TCU, other than geography, a needle-mover vs UC/UConn, etc?

(09-23-2016 11:47 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 11:40 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 11:21 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 10:02 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 09:32 AM)Wedge Wrote:  "Nobody agrees on the teams right now," one Big 12 official noted.

Doesn't sound much different that any other high level negotiation. We're still almost a month out from the October 17 meeting. Was anyone really expecting 'agreement' to be leaked through a writer.. much less a beat writer for ESPN?

How long has the Big 12 speculation about expansion been going? I find it REALLY hard to believe that they can't figure out who they want by now.

The problem is that there are a lot of really good contenders, but no GREAT contenders.

UH/UC/UConn/BYU/USF/UCF all have pros and some cons. Even schools like SDSU, CSU, BSU etc are in that same tier. But none of those schools are blue bloods that move the needle much.

And frankly, not really sure any of the schools added to a Power conference in the last 10 years or so are any different than these candidates. Obviously Louisville has thrived, others not so much. WVU is probably the closest to a slam dunk as any.

If they were GREAT contenders, they would have been in a power conference before the turn of the century. There are any number of candidates that are as good as a similar number of current P5 members.

Agreed.

(09-23-2016 12:32 PM)krup Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 09:56 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 09:32 AM)Wedge Wrote:  Some of us have speculated for months that this is the big reason behind the dog-and-pony show of 20 candidates:

Quote:"Nobody agrees on the teams right now," one Big 12 official noted.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...sion-talks

The end of this article talks about whether the Big 12 will extend its grant of rights agreement, and whether Texas and Oklahoma will sign a GOR extension:

Quote:"If the two parents don't commit [to signing the extension]," said one industry source, "what does that tell you?"

Said another: The Big 12 "could be close to the end."

The end won't occur as long as UT has the LHN & GOR is in place - costs are too high for UT & OU to do anything prior to 2022-23 with effectivity in 2025-26 with expiration of GOR. And UT will still be tied to LHN until 2032 with costs too high to move prior, as long as B12 exists.

The LHN doesn't mean Texas can't move in 2025, it just means Texas can't move somewhere that ESPN isn't happy with. Since ESPN has the ACC locked up tightest, I'm sure orchestrating an ND-like hybrid arrangement with them for Texas would work for ESPN. An SEC move probably would as well. The only moves ESPN probably wouldn't want w/o getting something in return is Texas going to the B1G or Pac12.

Actually it does. I don't see anyone else accepting Texas with the LHN in tow. That's why I don't think they are leaving.

Look at it logically. Do you really think that Texas wants all that ridiculous west coast travel in the Pac12? Plus the Pac12 has already said no to the LHN. Do Texas fans really want to give up local rivalries for snowy games in Indiana and Michigan? Does Texas really want to give up the LHN and its cushy seat in the Big12 with its fairly reasonable central time zone travel for CUSA style road trips that would be required in any other P5? Does UT really want to have to run a gauntlet that includes Alabama and LSU just to get to a CCG? Does Texas really want to play half its games on the east coast? The fact is, the Big 12 offers easy travel, provides a fairly easy route to the CCG, gives UT a built-in financial advantage over all its conference peers (15 million from the LHN), and provides UT with a built-in recruiting advantage over all its conference peers (LHN). They are not going to find that anywhere else.

I honestly believe that when its all said and done, the preservation of the Big12 is the best alternative for UT.

(09-23-2016 11:26 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  Anytime I see B12 in the title of a post, the circus theme song starts playing in my head. Wired. Anyone else?

Speaking with people who have dealt with BigXII interests and with interests from several schools in the Big XII that would be an insult to circuses. While a circus may at times look like chaos they actually have a plan and a clear objective.