Max Power
Not Rod Carey
Posts: 10,059
Joined: Oct 2008
Reputation: 261
I Root For: NIU, Bradley
Location: Peoria
|
Trump +2 in non-LA Times/Rasmussen national polls
LOL JK it's Hillary +7.
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 48, Trump 41 Clinton +7
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Associated Press-GfK Clinton 50, Trump 44 Clinton +6
AP poll has Hillary +8 among RV.
|
|
09-23-2016 09:28 AM |
|
UofMstateU
Legend
Posts: 39,083
Joined: Dec 2009
Reputation: 3551
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
|
RE: Trump +2 in non-LA Times/Rasmussen national polls
Thanks stinky pants.
|
|
09-23-2016 09:39 AM |
|
EverRespect
Free Kaplony
Posts: 31,322
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 1156
I Root For: ODU
Location:
|
RE: Trump +2 in non-LA Times/Rasmussen national polls
Quote:There are 1,094 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. There are 758 likely voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 Presidential Election based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation.
Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics...rylink=cpy
So they are predicting 69.3% voter turnout. The last time turnout was this high was in 1900. 2008 hope and change was 58.23%, the highest in 34 years. I can see how they came up with that result, but I see Hillary significantly underperforming Obama in turnout, not the other way around. And I think new voters are going to overwhelmingly favor Trump given the registration data showing republicans and unaffiliated overperforming and democrats underperforming. Trump is also likely to pull in a lot more registered voters that would seem unlikely to vote given past election participation.
(This post was last modified: 09-23-2016 10:04 AM by EverRespect.)
|
|
09-23-2016 10:01 AM |
|
UofMstateU
Legend
Posts: 39,083
Joined: Dec 2009
Reputation: 3551
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
|
RE: Trump +2 in non-LA Times/Rasmussen national polls
(09-23-2016 10:01 AM)EverRespect Wrote: Quote:There are 1,094 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. There are 758 likely voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 Presidential Election based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation.
Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics...rylink=cpy
So they are predicting 69.3% voter turnout. The last time turnout was this high was in 1900. 2008 hope and change was 58.23%, the highest in 34 years. I can see how they came up with that result, but I see Hillary significantly underperforming Obama in turnout, not the other way around. And I think new voters are going to overwhelmingly favor Trump given the registration data showing republicans and unaffiliated overperforming and democrats underperforming.
That's how you know how bad it is for Hillary now. Trump is up between 3 and 5 points nationally, so in order to show Hillary with a lead, they have to bias to a turnout that Obama couldn't even reach. In order to show her up 5 to 7 points, they have to skew to the absurdly ridiculous.
|
|
09-23-2016 10:06 AM |
|
Max Power
Not Rod Carey
Posts: 10,059
Joined: Oct 2008
Reputation: 261
I Root For: NIU, Bradley
Location: Peoria
|
RE: Trump +2 in non-LA Times/Rasmussen national polls
(09-23-2016 10:01 AM)EverRespect Wrote: Quote:There are 1,094 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. There are 758 likely voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 Presidential Election based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation.
Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics...rylink=cpy
So they are predicting 69.3% voter turnout. The last time turnout was this high was in 1900. 2008 hope and change was 58.23%, the highest in 34 years. I can see how they came up with that result, but I see Hillary significantly underperforming Obama in turnout, not the other way around. And I think new voters are going to overwhelmingly favor Trump given the registration data showing republicans and unaffiliated overperforming and democrats underperforming. Trump is also likely to pull in a lot more registered voters that would seem unlikely to vote given past election participation.
Nope. In the AP poll as I said Hillary's lead grows 2 points sans the likely voter screen, and that seems to be the case most everywhere. And they're not necessarily predicting that's overall turnout, because it's not 69.3% of the total population (not everyone is registered and not everyone they tried to reach was reached and not everyone they reached answered all the questions).
|
|
09-23-2016 10:17 AM |
|
EverRespect
Free Kaplony
Posts: 31,322
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 1156
I Root For: ODU
Location:
|
RE: Trump +2 in non-LA Times/Rasmussen national polls
(09-23-2016 10:17 AM)Max Power Wrote: (09-23-2016 10:01 AM)EverRespect Wrote: Quote:There are 1,094 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. There are 758 likely voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 Presidential Election based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation.
Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics...rylink=cpy
So they are predicting 69.3% voter turnout. The last time turnout was this high was in 1900. 2008 hope and change was 58.23%, the highest in 34 years. I can see how they came up with that result, but I see Hillary significantly underperforming Obama in turnout, not the other way around. And I think new voters are going to overwhelmingly favor Trump given the registration data showing republicans and unaffiliated overperforming and democrats underperforming. Trump is also likely to pull in a lot more registered voters that would seem unlikely to vote given past election participation.
Nope. In the AP poll as I said Hillary's lead grows 2 points sans the likely voter screen, and that seems to be the case most everywhere. And they're not necessarily predicting that's overall turnout, because it's not 69.3% of the total population (not everyone is registered and not everyone they tried to reach was reached and not everyone they reached answered all the questions).
Turnout numbers are derived from registered voter counts, not the population. They are indeed predicting 69.3% voter turnout.
|
|
09-23-2016 10:38 AM |
|
Max Power
Not Rod Carey
Posts: 10,059
Joined: Oct 2008
Reputation: 261
I Root For: NIU, Bradley
Location: Peoria
|
RE: Trump +2 in non-LA Times/Rasmussen national polls
No you're confused. The turnout numbers you cited (going back to 1900) were figures accounting for the total US voting age population, not just registered voters. The 69% figure you're citing here is of registered voters, so you're comparing apples and oranges, and plus it's off for the other couple reasons I cited.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turn..._elections
|
|
09-23-2016 10:46 AM |
|
green
Hall of Famer
Posts: 11,249
Joined: May 2014
Reputation: 389
I Root For: Miami
Location:
|
RE: Trump +2 in non-LA Times/Rasmussen national polls
(09-23-2016 09:28 AM)Max Power Wrote: LOL JK it's Hillary +7.
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 48, Trump 41 Clinton +7
McClatchy/Marist Poll (change from early Aug)
Clinton 48% (0)
Trump 41% (+8)
-- @williamjordann
ONE WAY OUT
|
|
09-23-2016 11:38 AM |
|
CardFan1
Red Thunderbird
Posts: 15,148
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 644
I Root For: Louisville ACC
Location:
|
RE: Trump +2 in non-LA Times/Rasmussen national polls
Illinois water must be coming in from Flint, Mi these days.
|
|
09-23-2016 01:10 PM |
|
Max Power
Not Rod Carey
Posts: 10,059
Joined: Oct 2008
Reputation: 261
I Root For: NIU, Bradley
Location: Peoria
|
RE: Trump +2 in non-LA Times/Rasmussen national polls
(09-23-2016 11:38 AM)green Wrote: (09-23-2016 09:28 AM)Max Power Wrote: LOL JK it's Hillary +7.
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 48, Trump 41 Clinton +7
McClatchy/Marist Poll (change from early Aug)
Clinton 48% (0)
Trump 41% (+8)
-- @williamjordann
ONE WAY OUT
No doubt she's down as compared to the August post-DNC afterglow, but Trump's bounce has/is faded.
Breitbart/Gravis even has her +4 again lol
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidenti...-trump-40/
|
|
09-23-2016 02:47 PM |
|
green
Hall of Famer
Posts: 11,249
Joined: May 2014
Reputation: 389
I Root For: Miami
Location:
|
RE: Trump +2 in non-LA Times/Rasmussen national polls
(09-23-2016 02:47 PM)Max Power Wrote: (09-23-2016 11:38 AM)green Wrote: (09-23-2016 09:28 AM)Max Power Wrote: LOL JK it's Hillary +7.
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 48, Trump 41 Clinton +7
McClatchy/Marist Poll (change from early Aug)
Clinton 48% (0)
Trump 41% (+8)
-- @williamjordann
ONE WAY OUT
No doubt she's down as compared to the August post-DNC afterglow, but Trump's bounce has/is faded.
Breitbart/Gravis even has her +4 again lol
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidenti...-trump-40/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/elec...aggerated/
Yes, Clinton has gotten some good polls. ... But the trend lines are more mixed. ... polls released over the past three days and finished within the last week compared to the most recent poll in the same contest from the same pollster.
In only three of the 16 polls has the race shifted in Clinton’s direction.
-- 538
WHICH WAY THE WIND BLOWS
|
|
09-23-2016 03:05 PM |
|
Max Power
Not Rod Carey
Posts: 10,059
Joined: Oct 2008
Reputation: 261
I Root For: NIU, Bradley
Location: Peoria
|
RE: Trump +2 in non-LA Times/Rasmussen national polls
It's true the trend lines are mixed but that's because many of these pollsters last polled a month ago when she was still on her convention bounce.
|
|
09-23-2016 03:52 PM |
|