Im not seeing where its a priority to add Cincinnati.

Houston is more the priority school since they are ranked higher than any current B12 team. The gap between the B12 and AAC this season is as narrow as its ever been.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G530AZ using CSNbbs mobile app

If they are looking at win loss records for 1 year, or current rankings. They are idiots.

which means that is likely on top of qualifications for B12.

The B12 is no where near ready to implode.

If they have to pick just one school in FL, I think it has to be USF. Roughly equal in market and enrollment, but USF is way ahead - right now - in research.

(09-23-2016 07:56 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  If they have to pick just one school in FL, I think it has to be USF. Roughly equal in market and enrollment, but USF is way ahead - right now - in research.

Usf is way ahead in the academic fraud department

This discussion has way too many "what ifs". It's really pretty simple. It all depends on UT & OU related to expansion, leaving or staying. UT, for as long as it has the advantage of the LHN & no options that pay more, will be in the B12. And with the LHN, UT has no options to go elsewhere because no other conference will accept UT if they want to bring their LHN (which currently gives UT higher revenues than they can get anywhere else). OU for the same reasons wants equal revenue with UT & if it can't get it through expansion, a B12 network or a TV cash boost by not expanding, then OU will push expansion for now & re-evaluate as GOR winds down in 2024-25, likely going to the SEC based upon today's considerations (which could change over the remaining period).

The only other current dynamic is the apparent inability for the BXII members to reach consensus on anything - which is likely the issue with expansion & the candidates being considered vs standing pat & accepting more TV $$ from ESPN to do so. This FB season's situation aggravates the standing pat thoughts (playoff berth not likely) - and the resulting panic might get enough members to vote expansion for 2 new members. Tough to see the members given their track record, to agree on 4 schools.

If Texas decided on football independence and keeping their LHN, they needn't worry about their other sports. Plenty of conferences would accept them, for the right price...

(09-22-2016 11:50 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 10:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 09:57 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 08:42 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  The BIGXII is not dead, not yet. OU and Texas will not have as much power and influence in any of the other P5 conferences as they do in the BIGXII. They realize this and the best for them is for the BIGXII to survive.
The conference is on its last leg though. With ACC getting a network, the pressure is on to find content that could help the BIGXII do the same. They don't want to be the only P5 without their own network, bad look and i assume in the long term probably bad in the pocket book.
OU and Texas want expansion to see if they can make the conference relevant and profitable long term. This is why I believe Houston and Cincinnati are their 1st two choices for expansion and if they decide to expand by 4, 3 and 4 will be two of UCONN, BYU, or Memphis.
No matter who they choose for expansion, once it happens i think that is when the clock on conference destruction starts. Expand and see where it gets you in the next 6 years. Do you have a BIGXII network? Are you one of the top 4 most profitable conferences? Are you winning or at the very least competing in the college football playoff? Answer me those questions in 6 or so years from now and then maybe we can say definitively whether or not the BIGXII will cease to be!

I agree with most of that. The Big 12 has time to build more brands, as they did with TCU. Your schools match DeCourcy's, more or less. I think BYU was going to get a bid, but got knocked out by all the bad pub, and the threatened protests/boycotts.

But I think the Big 12 adds 4, from UC, UM, UH, UConn, USF or UCF.

If the next 6 months pass without additions it's over. And since time will tell which one of us is correct, I'll wait. As far as the show goes it is necessary to have a very public blowup to build a case for irreconcilable differences. So Texas is very pro Texas based expansion and Oklahoma is not. If the schools of the conference are fairly evenly divided it's easier for any of them to make moves whether that is tomorrow or in 2024 provided there is public divisions that are both understandable and well known.

Unlike many of you I don't find placing 8 to be that difficult although I don't find it likely that if there is dissolution that any of the top 3 brands will go together.

The Summer time rumors of OU and OSU moving as a pair would be essential in any future conference home with a 9 game conference schedule and we are all headed there. That leaves a 10th P5 game on the schedule for OU to play Texas in Dallas, since it would be unlikely that those two would be in the same conference.

Kansas could conceivably head to the Big 10, but would also have some allure for the PAC. Should they move to the Big 10 and Oklahoma was unavailable perhaps Iowa State finds that home in spite of message board insistence to the contrary.

As for Texas they could easily move to the PAC and take T.C.U. and Tech with them. 26 million viewers in Texas could certainly help the PACN gain carriage. The 4th could be a G5 school out West or even a Kansas State.

West Virginia would make a great addition to the ACC and would be reunited with Pitt and Virginia Tech as well as Miami, B.C. and Syracuse from the Old Big East.

If the Big 10 balks maybe the SEC or PAC moves to 18.

So dissolution is not impossible.

But the prevailing wisdom would indicate that with no expansion dissolution could happen at the end of the GOR with no repercussions or even 2 years prior with little buyout remaining.

What's not talked about is the television contract. IMO that's the surest way to dissolution. It takes 10 schools for the contract to remain enforceable. What if UT and OU truly wanted out and wanted out now? Baylor could become a scapegoat. Censure Baylor and remove them from the Big 12 and the conference is at 9. Disagree on a replacement long enough and the TV contract is voided for next season. No TV contract no damages for the GOR. Now we are back to exit fees. That's doable.

I'm not saying that Baylor is going to be booted. I give that scenario a low probability, but it is conceivable and possible. Many in the Big 12 claim the Bears got in by politics. It would be Karma if they left that way.

I think the most likely outcome is a tense truce until 2022 and then a 2 year served notice to eliminate exit fees. It takes 2 years in a rush to change conferences and 3 at a normal pace. The negotiations don't take long. Legalities, scheduling changes, updated facilities and logo changes, forming requisite athletic teams to meet new conference expectations, all of that and more takes a few years. Next year is 2017. If the present schools of the Big 12 work out covertly where they may be headed the next three years will be spent working on those issues. They could give notice in 2020 and buyout the last two years of the GOR without busting the bank, or simply wait and give notice in 2022. Either way networks and conferences don't have to take product they don't want. A new P4 could have as few as 57 members. ACC: 15, SEC: 15, Big 10: 15, and PAC 12. 60 would be doable as well.

Networks can also mitigate damages of a broken GOR by simply paying the contract in full for the remaining schools. They would still have some damages against the departed former members that they could claim but they would be more subjective and less definable.

If corporations and state government (as well as the Feds) have proven to us anything at all it is that they can screw over just about anyone and get away with it. They always have an out. If the damaged parties file in their home state they are likely to be suing a school from which most of their state legislators received their law degrees. If they sue in Federal courts politics still has sway, though perhaps not as directly.

Taking a settlement for less has always been the preferred option an likely will remain so.

So pardon me for feeling as though nothing will happen. But I do so with good reason. Larger checks await those who leave. Money is saved by the networks if they only take what they want. Content is multiplied with large schools with national branding playing only, or almost only, other large schools with national branding. With large corporations which are part of larger conglomerates standing to make more money by taking fewer, with the top schools looking to make more the same way, with the biggest conferences hoping to do the same I just don't see this show in the Big 12 amounting to much. But don't blame the Big 10, the SEC, the ACC, or the PAC12. If you don't like the eventual outcome it is FOX and ESPN that deserve your derision as they will be the ones who have relegated worthy schools to a lesser pay grade. But proving it after this dog and pony show is going to be tough!

JR I really don't disagree with you. My entire argument is based on the idea that Texas wants to squeeze every last penny out of the BIGXII and that Oklahoma is internally at odds out of where they want to go ( B1G,PAC,SEC) and who they want to go with ( OSU,KU,UT,ISU,TTU,WVU,???)

I think this is why they want to expand. You bring in a few members and see what you can get out of it, all the while you watch the other P5's to see what they do, and try to figure out where you fit. If the BIGXII succeeds, OU and UT win. If it fails OU and UT win, they're in a great position to wait it out and see what happens.

Where I absolutely and unequivocally agree with you, if they do nothing in the next year, the BIGXII is dead. Oklahoma and Texas will bolt and the best parts of the BIGXII will go with them (KU,OSU,WVU,TTU,ISU). Should be fun to watch either way

I think JR's premise is solid and a popular one. But an argument can also be made that the Big 12 will survive. Especially if they finally get done with this circus and actually add 4 teams, which I still think they do.

As JR says, we will know before long. I don't think it will take 6 months. I think if they don't make a move by Christmas, they're done. But I will guess they get something out sometime in October, if they ever do.

(09-23-2016 12:04 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  If Texas decided on football independence and keeping their LHN, they needn't worry about their other sports. Plenty of conferences would accept them, for the right price...

The right price being broadcast on LHN.

(09-23-2016 12:04 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  If Texas decided on football independence and keeping their LHN, they needn't worry about their other sports. Plenty of conferences would accept them, for the right price...

I don't know. What would Texas sans football bring to any power conference? Are people all over the country dialing in Texas men's hoops? Even if they are, the ACC and B10 have their fill of national and regional brands. If Texas joined the Pac12 do you think people east of the Mississippi are staying up late to watch Texas and Oregon State tip off?

The one conference where it might make sense would be the SEC which needs to strengthen their basketball brand, but its not as if Texas is a perennial powerhouse on the hardwood. Besides, A&M might not want not want Texas along for the ride.

(09-23-2016 01:23 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 12:04 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  If Texas decided on football independence and keeping their LHN, they needn't worry about their other sports. Plenty of conferences would accept them, for the right price...

I don't know. What would Texas sans football bring to any power conference? Are people all over the country dialing in Texas men's hoops? Even if they are, the ACC and B10 have their fill of national and regional brands. If Texas joined the Pac12 do you think people east of the Mississippi are staying up late to watch Texas and Oregon State tip off?

The one conference where it might make sense would be the SEC which needs to strengthen their basketball brand, but its not as if Texas is a perennial powerhouse on the hardwood. Besides, A&M might not want not want Texas along for the ride.

I agree. I can't think of any conference that Texas would be willing to join that would have them on those terms. As I see it, UT has two options. Go to another P5 as part of a package deal with several other name brands, or stay in the Big XII, with or without Oklahoma. Whether the first option is viable would depend on their willingness to negotiate re the LHN.

If Texas was complaining about going to Berkeley, there's no way independence is on the table. It wants to play teams in the south central US.

(09-23-2016 12:04 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  If Texas decided on football independence and keeping their LHN, they needn't worry about their other sports. Plenty of conferences would accept them, for the right price...

Yeah the Sunbelt or CUSA would, but I do not think UT wants that. NO P5 would and therefore UT will never go indy.

(09-23-2016 12:15 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 11:50 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 10:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 09:57 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 08:42 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  The BIGXII is not dead, not yet. OU and Texas will not have as much power and influence in any of the other P5 conferences as they do in the BIGXII. They realize this and the best for them is for the BIGXII to survive.
The conference is on its last leg though. With ACC getting a network, the pressure is on to find content that could help the BIGXII do the same. They don't want to be the only P5 without their own network, bad look and i assume in the long term probably bad in the pocket book.
OU and Texas want expansion to see if they can make the conference relevant and profitable long term. This is why I believe Houston and Cincinnati are their 1st two choices for expansion and if they decide to expand by 4, 3 and 4 will be two of UCONN, BYU, or Memphis.
No matter who they choose for expansion, once it happens i think that is when the clock on conference destruction starts. Expand and see where it gets you in the next 6 years. Do you have a BIGXII network? Are you one of the top 4 most profitable conferences? Are you winning or at the very least competing in the college football playoff? Answer me those questions in 6 or so years from now and then maybe we can say definitively whether or not the BIGXII will cease to be!

I agree with most of that. The Big 12 has time to build more brands, as they did with TCU. Your schools match DeCourcy's, more or less. I think BYU was going to get a bid, but got knocked out by all the bad pub, and the threatened protests/boycotts.

But I think the Big 12 adds 4, from UC, UM, UH, UConn, USF or UCF.

If the next 6 months pass without additions it's over. And since time will tell which one of us is correct, I'll wait. As far as the show goes it is necessary to have a very public blowup to build a case for irreconcilable differences. So Texas is very pro Texas based expansion and Oklahoma is not. If the schools of the conference are fairly evenly divided it's easier for any of them to make moves whether that is tomorrow or in 2024 provided there is public divisions that are both understandable and well known.

Unlike many of you I don't find placing 8 to be that difficult although I don't find it likely that if there is dissolution that any of the top 3 brands will go together.

The Summer time rumors of OU and OSU moving as a pair would be essential in any future conference home with a 9 game conference schedule and we are all headed there. That leaves a 10th P5 game on the schedule for OU to play Texas in Dallas, since it would be unlikely that those two would be in the same conference.

Kansas could conceivably head to the Big 10, but would also have some allure for the PAC. Should they move to the Big 10 and Oklahoma was unavailable perhaps Iowa State finds that home in spite of message board insistence to the contrary.

As for Texas they could easily move to the PAC and take T.C.U. and Tech with them. 26 million viewers in Texas could certainly help the PACN gain carriage. The 4th could be a G5 school out West or even a Kansas State.

West Virginia would make a great addition to the ACC and would be reunited with Pitt and Virginia Tech as well as Miami, B.C. and Syracuse from the Old Big East.

If the Big 10 balks maybe the SEC or PAC moves to 18.

So dissolution is not impossible.

But the prevailing wisdom would indicate that with no expansion dissolution could happen at the end of the GOR with no repercussions or even 2 years prior with little buyout remaining.

What's not talked about is the television contract. IMO that's the surest way to dissolution. It takes 10 schools for the contract to remain enforceable. What if UT and OU truly wanted out and wanted out now? Baylor could become a scapegoat. Censure Baylor and remove them from the Big 12 and the conference is at 9. Disagree on a replacement long enough and the TV contract is voided for next season. No TV contract no damages for the GOR. Now we are back to exit fees. That's doable.

I'm not saying that Baylor is going to be booted. I give that scenario a low probability, but it is conceivable and possible. Many in the Big 12 claim the Bears got in by politics. It would be Karma if they left that way.

I think the most likely outcome is a tense truce until 2022 and then a 2 year served notice to eliminate exit fees. It takes 2 years in a rush to change conferences and 3 at a normal pace. The negotiations don't take long. Legalities, scheduling changes, updated facilities and logo changes, forming requisite athletic teams to meet new conference expectations, all of that and more takes a few years. Next year is 2017. If the present schools of the Big 12 work out covertly where they may be headed the next three years will be spent working on those issues. They could give notice in 2020 and buyout the last two years of the GOR without busting the bank, or simply wait and give notice in 2022. Either way networks and conferences don't have to take product they don't want. A new P4 could have as few as 57 members. ACC: 15, SEC: 15, Big 10: 15, and PAC 12. 60 would be doable as well.

Networks can also mitigate damages of a broken GOR by simply paying the contract in full for the remaining schools. They would still have some damages against the departed former members that they could claim but they would be more subjective and less definable.

If corporations and state government (as well as the Feds) have proven to us anything at all it is that they can screw over just about anyone and get away with it. They always have an out. If the damaged parties file in their home state they are likely to be suing a school from which most of their state legislators received their law degrees. If they sue in Federal courts politics still has sway, though perhaps not as directly.

Taking a settlement for less has always been the preferred option an likely will remain so.

So pardon me for feeling as though nothing will happen. But I do so with good reason. Larger checks await those who leave. Money is saved by the networks if they only take what they want. Content is multiplied with large schools with national branding playing only, or almost only, other large schools with national branding. With large corporations which are part of larger conglomerates standing to make more money by taking fewer, with the top schools looking to make more the same way, with the biggest conferences hoping to do the same I just don't see this show in the Big 12 amounting to much. But don't blame the Big 10, the SEC, the ACC, or the PAC12. If you don't like the eventual outcome it is FOX and ESPN that deserve your derision as they will be the ones who have relegated worthy schools to a lesser pay grade. But proving it after this dog and pony show is going to be tough!

JR I really don't disagree with you. My entire argument is based on the idea that Texas wants to squeeze every last penny out of the BIGXII and that Oklahoma is internally at odds out of where they want to go ( B1G,PAC,SEC) and who they want to go with ( OSU,KU,UT,ISU,TTU,WVU,???)

I think this is why they want to expand. You bring in a few members and see what you can get out of it, all the while you watch the other P5's to see what they do, and try to figure out where you fit. If the BIGXII succeeds, OU and UT win. If it fails OU and UT win, they're in a great position to wait it out and see what happens.

Where I absolutely and unequivocally agree with you, if they do nothing in the next year, the BIGXII is dead. Oklahoma and Texas will bolt and the best parts of the BIGXII will go with them (KU,OSU,WVU,TTU,ISU). Should be fun to watch either way

I think JR's premise is solid and a popular one. But an argument can also be made that the Big 12 will survive. Especially if they finally get done with this circus and actually add 4 teams, which I still think they do.

As JR says, we will know before long. I don't think it will take 6 months. I think if they don't make a move by Christmas, they're done. But I will guess they get something out sometime in October, if they ever do.

Agreed

(09-23-2016 02:37 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 12:15 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 11:50 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 10:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 09:57 PM)TripleA Wrote:  I agree with most of that. The Big 12 has time to build more brands, as they did with TCU. Your schools match DeCourcy's, more or less. I think BYU was going to get a bid, but got knocked out by all the bad pub, and the threatened protests/boycotts.

But I think the Big 12 adds 4, from UC, UM, UH, UConn, USF or UCF.

If the next 6 months pass without additions it's over. And since time will tell which one of us is correct, I'll wait. As far as the show goes it is necessary to have a very public blowup to build a case for irreconcilable differences. So Texas is very pro Texas based expansion and Oklahoma is not. If the schools of the conference are fairly evenly divided it's easier for any of them to make moves whether that is tomorrow or in 2024 provided there is public divisions that are both understandable and well known.

Unlike many of you I don't find placing 8 to be that difficult although I don't find it likely that if there is dissolution that any of the top 3 brands will go together.

The Summer time rumors of OU and OSU moving as a pair would be essential in any future conference home with a 9 game conference schedule and we are all headed there. That leaves a 10th P5 game on the schedule for OU to play Texas in Dallas, since it would be unlikely that those two would be in the same conference.

Kansas could conceivably head to the Big 10, but would also have some allure for the PAC. Should they move to the Big 10 and Oklahoma was unavailable perhaps Iowa State finds that home in spite of message board insistence to the contrary.

As for Texas they could easily move to the PAC and take T.C.U. and Tech with them. 26 million viewers in Texas could certainly help the PACN gain carriage. The 4th could be a G5 school out West or even a Kansas State.

West Virginia would make a great addition to the ACC and would be reunited with Pitt and Virginia Tech as well as Miami, B.C. and Syracuse from the Old Big East.

If the Big 10 balks maybe the SEC or PAC moves to 18.

So dissolution is not impossible.

But the prevailing wisdom would indicate that with no expansion dissolution could happen at the end of the GOR with no repercussions or even 2 years prior with little buyout remaining.

What's not talked about is the television contract. IMO that's the surest way to dissolution. It takes 10 schools for the contract to remain enforceable. What if UT and OU truly wanted out and wanted out now? Baylor could become a scapegoat. Censure Baylor and remove them from the Big 12 and the conference is at 9. Disagree on a replacement long enough and the TV contract is voided for next season. No TV contract no damages for the GOR. Now we are back to exit fees. That's doable.

I'm not saying that Baylor is going to be booted. I give that scenario a low probability, but it is conceivable and possible. Many in the Big 12 claim the Bears got in by politics. It would be Karma if they left that way.

I think the most likely outcome is a tense truce until 2022 and then a 2 year served notice to eliminate exit fees. It takes 2 years in a rush to change conferences and 3 at a normal pace. The negotiations don't take long. Legalities, scheduling changes, updated facilities and logo changes, forming requisite athletic teams to meet new conference expectations, all of that and more takes a few years. Next year is 2017. If the present schools of the Big 12 work out covertly where they may be headed the next three years will be spent working on those issues. They could give notice in 2020 and buyout the last two years of the GOR without busting the bank, or simply wait and give notice in 2022. Either way networks and conferences don't have to take product they don't want. A new P4 could have as few as 57 members. ACC: 15, SEC: 15, Big 10: 15, and PAC 12. 60 would be doable as well.

Networks can also mitigate damages of a broken GOR by simply paying the contract in full for the remaining schools. They would still have some damages against the departed former members that they could claim but they would be more subjective and less definable.

If corporations and state government (as well as the Feds) have proven to us anything at all it is that they can screw over just about anyone and get away with it. They always have an out. If the damaged parties file in their home state they are likely to be suing a school from which most of their state legislators received their law degrees. If they sue in Federal courts politics still has sway, though perhaps not as directly.

Taking a settlement for less has always been the preferred option an likely will remain so.

So pardon me for feeling as though nothing will happen. But I do so with good reason. Larger checks await those who leave. Money is saved by the networks if they only take what they want. Content is multiplied with large schools with national branding playing only, or almost only, other large schools with national branding. With large corporations which are part of larger conglomerates standing to make more money by taking fewer, with the top schools looking to make more the same way, with the biggest conferences hoping to do the same I just don't see this show in the Big 12 amounting to much. But don't blame the Big 10, the SEC, the ACC, or the PAC12. If you don't like the eventual outcome it is FOX and ESPN that deserve your derision as they will be the ones who have relegated worthy schools to a lesser pay grade. But proving it after this dog and pony show is going to be tough!

JR I really don't disagree with you. My entire argument is based on the idea that Texas wants to squeeze every last penny out of the BIGXII and that Oklahoma is internally at odds out of where they want to go ( B1G,PAC,SEC) and who they want to go with ( OSU,KU,UT,ISU,TTU,WVU,???)

I think this is why they want to expand. You bring in a few members and see what you can get out of it, all the while you watch the other P5's to see what they do, and try to figure out where you fit. If the BIGXII succeeds, OU and UT win. If it fails OU and UT win, they're in a great position to wait it out and see what happens.

Where I absolutely and unequivocally agree with you, if they do nothing in the next year, the BIGXII is dead. Oklahoma and Texas will bolt and the best parts of the BIGXII will go with them (KU,OSU,WVU,TTU,ISU). Should be fun to watch either way

I think JR's premise is solid and a popular one. But an argument can also be made that the Big 12 will survive. Especially if they finally get done with this circus and actually add 4 teams, which I still think they do.

As JR says, we will know before long. I don't think it will take 6 months. I think if they don't make a move by Christmas, they're done. But I will guess they get something out sometime in October, if they ever do.

Agreed

It's not considered acceptable form to make announcements that detract from the season, or that interfere with a normally well attended or highly viewed event. These announcements tend to come in dead time. If the Big 12 were going to make an announcement I would suspect after the second weekend in January. The CFP will be over and basketball will just be beginning conference play. If it doesn't come then it will be after the NCAA tournament. And if it doesn't come then it's not happening. Spring meetings for the conferences are usually the last shot at important votes before Fall and we all know that means another football season.

(09-23-2016 01:23 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 12:04 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  If Texas decided on football independence and keeping their LHN, they needn't worry about their other sports. Plenty of conferences would accept them, for the right price...

I don't know. What would Texas sans football bring to any power conference? Are people all over the country dialing in Texas men's hoops? Even if they are, the ACC and B10 have their fill of national and regional brands. If Texas joined the Pac12 do you think people east of the Mississippi are staying up late to watch Texas and Oregon State tip off?

The one conference where it might make sense would be the SEC which needs to strengthen their basketball brand, but its not as if Texas is a perennial powerhouse on the hardwood. Besides, A&M might not want not want Texas along for the ride.

Texas could literally go almost anywhere. But I was thinking more along the lines of a G5 or non-football conference. The MW would make an exception for them. The Missouri Valley could work; Texas vs Wichita State basketball would be a treat.

They can always go the Big West route for a small travel subsidy. Great academic fit. Texas vs Long Beach State and Hawaii in volleyball and softball. Texas vs Cal State Fullerton in baseball.

All this is pie in the sky, but at this point, why not?

(09-23-2016 01:49 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  If Texas was complaining about going to Berkeley, there's no way independence is on the table. It wants to play teams in the south central US.

Folks can only take so much before they crack. Who wants to really be aligned with Texas?

(09-23-2016 02:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 02:37 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 12:15 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 11:50 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 10:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  If the next 6 months pass without additions it's over. And since time will tell which one of us is correct, I'll wait. As far as the show goes it is necessary to have a very public blowup to build a case for irreconcilable differences. So Texas is very pro Texas based expansion and Oklahoma is not. If the schools of the conference are fairly evenly divided it's easier for any of them to make moves whether that is tomorrow or in 2024 provided there is public divisions that are both understandable and well known.

Unlike many of you I don't find placing 8 to be that difficult although I don't find it likely that if there is dissolution that any of the top 3 brands will go together.

The Summer time rumors of OU and OSU moving as a pair would be essential in any future conference home with a 9 game conference schedule and we are all headed there. That leaves a 10th P5 game on the schedule for OU to play Texas in Dallas, since it would be unlikely that those two would be in the same conference.

Kansas could conceivably head to the Big 10, but would also have some allure for the PAC. Should they move to the Big 10 and Oklahoma was unavailable perhaps Iowa State finds that home in spite of message board insistence to the contrary.

As for Texas they could easily move to the PAC and take T.C.U. and Tech with them. 26 million viewers in Texas could certainly help the PACN gain carriage. The 4th could be a G5 school out West or even a Kansas State.

West Virginia would make a great addition to the ACC and would be reunited with Pitt and Virginia Tech as well as Miami, B.C. and Syracuse from the Old Big East.

If the Big 10 balks maybe the SEC or PAC moves to 18.

So dissolution is not impossible.

But the prevailing wisdom would indicate that with no expansion dissolution could happen at the end of the GOR with no repercussions or even 2 years prior with little buyout remaining.

What's not talked about is the television contract. IMO that's the surest way to dissolution. It takes 10 schools for the contract to remain enforceable. What if UT and OU truly wanted out and wanted out now? Baylor could become a scapegoat. Censure Baylor and remove them from the Big 12 and the conference is at 9. Disagree on a replacement long enough and the TV contract is voided for next season. No TV contract no damages for the GOR. Now we are back to exit fees. That's doable.

I'm not saying that Baylor is going to be booted. I give that scenario a low probability, but it is conceivable and possible. Many in the Big 12 claim the Bears got in by politics. It would be Karma if they left that way.

I think the most likely outcome is a tense truce until 2022 and then a 2 year served notice to eliminate exit fees. It takes 2 years in a rush to change conferences and 3 at a normal pace. The negotiations don't take long. Legalities, scheduling changes, updated facilities and logo changes, forming requisite athletic teams to meet new conference expectations, all of that and more takes a few years. Next year is 2017. If the present schools of the Big 12 work out covertly where they may be headed the next three years will be spent working on those issues. They could give notice in 2020 and buyout the last two years of the GOR without busting the bank, or simply wait and give notice in 2022. Either way networks and conferences don't have to take product they don't want. A new P4 could have as few as 57 members. ACC: 15, SEC: 15, Big 10: 15, and PAC 12. 60 would be doable as well.

Networks can also mitigate damages of a broken GOR by simply paying the contract in full for the remaining schools. They would still have some damages against the departed former members that they could claim but they would be more subjective and less definable.

If corporations and state government (as well as the Feds) have proven to us anything at all it is that they can screw over just about anyone and get away with it. They always have an out. If the damaged parties file in their home state they are likely to be suing a school from which most of their state legislators received their law degrees. If they sue in Federal courts politics still has sway, though perhaps not as directly.

Taking a settlement for less has always been the preferred option an likely will remain so.

So pardon me for feeling as though nothing will happen. But I do so with good reason. Larger checks await those who leave. Money is saved by the networks if they only take what they want. Content is multiplied with large schools with national branding playing only, or almost only, other large schools with national branding. With large corporations which are part of larger conglomerates standing to make more money by taking fewer, with the top schools looking to make more the same way, with the biggest conferences hoping to do the same I just don't see this show in the Big 12 amounting to much. But don't blame the Big 10, the SEC, the ACC, or the PAC12. If you don't like the eventual outcome it is FOX and ESPN that deserve your derision as they will be the ones who have relegated worthy schools to a lesser pay grade. But proving it after this dog and pony show is going to be tough!

JR I really don't disagree with you. My entire argument is based on the idea that Texas wants to squeeze every last penny out of the BIGXII and that Oklahoma is internally at odds out of where they want to go ( B1G,PAC,SEC) and who they want to go with ( OSU,KU,UT,ISU,TTU,WVU,???)

I think this is why they want to expand. You bring in a few members and see what you can get out of it, all the while you watch the other P5's to see what they do, and try to figure out where you fit. If the BIGXII succeeds, OU and UT win. If it fails OU and UT win, they're in a great position to wait it out and see what happens.

Where I absolutely and unequivocally agree with you, if they do nothing in the next year, the BIGXII is dead. Oklahoma and Texas will bolt and the best parts of the BIGXII will go with them (KU,OSU,WVU,TTU,ISU). Should be fun to watch either way

I think JR's premise is solid and a popular one. But an argument can also be made that the Big 12 will survive. Especially if they finally get done with this circus and actually add 4 teams, which I still think they do.

As JR says, we will know before long. I don't think it will take 6 months. I think if they don't make a move by Christmas, they're done. But I will guess they get something out sometime in October, if they ever do.

Agreed

It's not considered acceptable form to make announcements that detract from the season, or that interfere with a normally well attended or highly viewed event. These announcements tend to come in dead time. If the Big 12 were going to make an announcement I would suspect after the second weekend in January. The CFP will be over and basketball will just be beginning conference play. If it doesn't come then it will be after the NCAA tournament. And if it doesn't come then it's not happening. Spring meetings for the conferences are usually the last shot at important votes before Fall and we all know that means another football season.

lets look...
Louisville to ACC- happened on Nov 29
Maryland, Rutgers to Big Ten- happened on Nov 20, 21
Notre Dame to ACC- happened on Sep 13
Texas A&M to SEC- Sep 26
Missouri to SEC- Nov 7
Pitt, Syracuse to ACC- Sep 19
WVU joins Big 12- Oct 28
TCU joins Big 12- Oct 10

so, no, you are wrong, wrong, dead wrong. Really only the first moves happened in the off season(Nebraska, Colorado, Utah). Everything else happened dead in the football season.

(09-23-2016 02:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 02:37 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 12:15 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 11:50 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 10:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  If the next 6 months pass without additions it's over. And since time will tell which one of us is correct, I'll wait. As far as the show goes it is necessary to have a very public blowup to build a case for irreconcilable differences. So Texas is very pro Texas based expansion and Oklahoma is not. If the schools of the conference are fairly evenly divided it's easier for any of them to make moves whether that is tomorrow or in 2024 provided there is public divisions that are both understandable and well known.

Unlike many of you I don't find placing 8 to be that difficult although I don't find it likely that if there is dissolution that any of the top 3 brands will go together.

The Summer time rumors of OU and OSU moving as a pair would be essential in any future conference home with a 9 game conference schedule and we are all headed there. That leaves a 10th P5 game on the schedule for OU to play Texas in Dallas, since it would be unlikely that those two would be in the same conference.

Kansas could conceivably head to the Big 10, but would also have some allure for the PAC. Should they move to the Big 10 and Oklahoma was unavailable perhaps Iowa State finds that home in spite of message board insistence to the contrary.

As for Texas they could easily move to the PAC and take T.C.U. and Tech with them. 26 million viewers in Texas could certainly help the PACN gain carriage. The 4th could be a G5 school out West or even a Kansas State.

West Virginia would make a great addition to the ACC and would be reunited with Pitt and Virginia Tech as well as Miami, B.C. and Syracuse from the Old Big East.

If the Big 10 balks maybe the SEC or PAC moves to 18.

So dissolution is not impossible.

But the prevailing wisdom would indicate that with no expansion dissolution could happen at the end of the GOR with no repercussions or even 2 years prior with little buyout remaining.

What's not talked about is the television contract. IMO that's the surest way to dissolution. It takes 10 schools for the contract to remain enforceable. What if UT and OU truly wanted out and wanted out now? Baylor could become a scapegoat. Censure Baylor and remove them from the Big 12 and the conference is at 9. Disagree on a replacement long enough and the TV contract is voided for next season. No TV contract no damages for the GOR. Now we are back to exit fees. That's doable.

I'm not saying that Baylor is going to be booted. I give that scenario a low probability, but it is conceivable and possible. Many in the Big 12 claim the Bears got in by politics. It would be Karma if they left that way.

I think the most likely outcome is a tense truce until 2022 and then a 2 year served notice to eliminate exit fees. It takes 2 years in a rush to change conferences and 3 at a normal pace. The negotiations don't take long. Legalities, scheduling changes, updated facilities and logo changes, forming requisite athletic teams to meet new conference expectations, all of that and more takes a few years. Next year is 2017. If the present schools of the Big 12 work out covertly where they may be headed the next three years will be spent working on those issues. They could give notice in 2020 and buyout the last two years of the GOR without busting the bank, or simply wait and give notice in 2022. Either way networks and conferences don't have to take product they don't want. A new P4 could have as few as 57 members. ACC: 15, SEC: 15, Big 10: 15, and PAC 12. 60 would be doable as well.

Networks can also mitigate damages of a broken GOR by simply paying the contract in full for the remaining schools. They would still have some damages against the departed former members that they could claim but they would be more subjective and less definable.

If corporations and state government (as well as the Feds) have proven to us anything at all it is that they can screw over just about anyone and get away with it. They always have an out. If the damaged parties file in their home state they are likely to be suing a school from which most of their state legislators received their law degrees. If they sue in Federal courts politics still has sway, though perhaps not as directly.

Taking a settlement for less has always been the preferred option an likely will remain so.

So pardon me for feeling as though nothing will happen. But I do so with good reason. Larger checks await those who leave. Money is saved by the networks if they only take what they want. Content is multiplied with large schools with national branding playing only, or almost only, other large schools with national branding. With large corporations which are part of larger conglomerates standing to make more money by taking fewer, with the top schools looking to make more the same way, with the biggest conferences hoping to do the same I just don't see this show in the Big 12 amounting to much. But don't blame the Big 10, the SEC, the ACC, or the PAC12. If you don't like the eventual outcome it is FOX and ESPN that deserve your derision as they will be the ones who have relegated worthy schools to a lesser pay grade. But proving it after this dog and pony show is going to be tough!

JR I really don't disagree with you. My entire argument is based on the idea that Texas wants to squeeze every last penny out of the BIGXII and that Oklahoma is internally at odds out of where they want to go ( B1G,PAC,SEC) and who they want to go with ( OSU,KU,UT,ISU,TTU,WVU,???)

I think this is why they want to expand. You bring in a few members and see what you can get out of it, all the while you watch the other P5's to see what they do, and try to figure out where you fit. If the BIGXII succeeds, OU and UT win. If it fails OU and UT win, they're in a great position to wait it out and see what happens.

Where I absolutely and unequivocally agree with you, if they do nothing in the next year, the BIGXII is dead. Oklahoma and Texas will bolt and the best parts of the BIGXII will go with them (KU,OSU,WVU,TTU,ISU). Should be fun to watch either way

I think JR's premise is solid and a popular one. But an argument can also be made that the Big 12 will survive. Especially if they finally get done with this circus and actually add 4 teams, which I still think they do.

As JR says, we will know before long. I don't think it will take 6 months. I think if they don't make a move by Christmas, they're done. But I will guess they get something out sometime in October, if they ever do.

Agreed

It's not considered acceptable form to make announcements that detract from the season, or that interfere with a normally well attended or highly viewed event. These announcements tend to come in dead time. If the Big 12 were going to make an announcement I would suspect after the second weekend in January. The CFP will be over and basketball will just be beginning conference play. If it doesn't come then it will be after the NCAA tournament. And if it doesn't come then it's not happening. Spring meetings for the conferences are usually the last shot at important votes before Fall and we all know that means another football season.

WVU was announced to the Big 12 on Oct. 28, 2011, iirc.

Louisville was announced to the ACC in November. Both were in the middle of football season, of course.

Another reason. Bowlsby and/or Boren have said several times that they would like for schools to start play in 2017, to take advantage of the CCG and divisional setups. If they want to do that, they need to announce the teams in Oct., or no later than early November, at the latest.

That's why I think the Oct. 17 presidents' meeting is do or die for expansion, or at least for 2017 play.

(09-23-2016 03:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 02:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 02:37 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 12:15 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 11:50 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  JR I really don't disagree with you. My entire argument is based on the idea that Texas wants to squeeze every last penny out of the BIGXII and that Oklahoma is internally at odds out of where they want to go ( B1G,PAC,SEC) and who they want to go with ( OSU,KU,UT,ISU,TTU,WVU,???)

I think this is why they want to expand. You bring in a few members and see what you can get out of it, all the while you watch the other P5's to see what they do, and try to figure out where you fit. If the BIGXII succeeds, OU and UT win. If it fails OU and UT win, they're in a great position to wait it out and see what happens.

Where I absolutely and unequivocally agree with you, if they do nothing in the next year, the BIGXII is dead. Oklahoma and Texas will bolt and the best parts of the BIGXII will go with them (KU,OSU,WVU,TTU,ISU). Should be fun to watch either way

I think JR's premise is solid and a popular one. But an argument can also be made that the Big 12 will survive. Especially if they finally get done with this circus and actually add 4 teams, which I still think they do.

As JR says, we will know before long. I don't think it will take 6 months. I think if they don't make a move by Christmas, they're done. But I will guess they get something out sometime in October, if they ever do.

Agreed

It's not considered acceptable form to make announcements that detract from the season, or that interfere with a normally well attended or highly viewed event. These announcements tend to come in dead time. If the Big 12 were going to make an announcement I would suspect after the second weekend in January. The CFP will be over and basketball will just be beginning conference play. If it doesn't come then it will be after the NCAA tournament. And if it doesn't come then it's not happening. Spring meetings for the conferences are usually the last shot at important votes before Fall and we all know that means another football season.

lets look...
Louisville to ACC- happened on Nov 29
Maryland, Rutgers to Big Ten- happened on Nov 20, 21
Notre Dame to ACC- happened on Sep 13
Texas A&M to SEC- Sep 26
Missouri to SEC- Nov 7
Pitt, Syracuse to ACC- Sep 19
WVU joins Big 12- Oct 28
TCU joins Big 12- Oct 10

so, no, you are wrong, wrong, dead wrong. Really only the first moves happened in the off season(Nebraska, Colorado, Utah). Everything else happened dead in the football season.

Sorry, didn't see this first. Much better list than mine.

(09-23-2016 03:46 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(09-23-2016 01:49 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  If Texas was complaining about going to Berkeley, there's no way independence is on the table. It wants to play teams in the south central US.

Folks can only take so much before they crack. Who wants to really be aligned with Texas?

About everyone in the country but A&M.

So much? Do you actually have any specifics.