No Houston is going to have to have three things go for them.

1. Louisville cannot have more than 1 loss before they play them.
2. The AAC East champ cannot have more than two losses in the title game.
3. They of course need to be undefeated.

If all three of these happen then they have a chance.

This opinion probably won't be popular, and may turn out to be flat wrong, but:

Neither Greg Ward Jr or Lamar Jackson are NFL QB's. They're successful at QB in college because they're faster than almost everyone on the defenses they face. And they can throw the ball OK. So they get in a bunch of empty set, spread the defense out, and can outrun the defenders and now and then hand off or throw a route.

In the NFL they won't be faster than the defense. The spread isn't a legitimate NFL offense. And they don't throw it well enough to be NFL QB's.


$0.02

(09-20-2016 10:24 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  This opinion probably won't be popular, and may turn out to be flat wrong, but:

Neither Greg Ward Jr or Lamar Jackson are NFL QB's. They're successful at QB in college because they're faster than almost everyone on the defenses they face. And they can throw the ball OK. So they get in a bunch of empty set, spread the defense out, and can outrun the defenders and now and then hand off or throw a route.

In the NFL they won't be faster than the defense. The spread isn't a legitimate NFL offense. And they don't throw it well enough to be NFL QB's.


$0.02

my answer to this is- So what? What does that have to do with COLLEGE football.

And you are correct.

Just worth pointing out, in my opinion.

I don't see it as a play-in game for Louisville because the Big 12 is not very good this year.

Louisville finishes its ACC schedule before it plays Houston. If Louisville wins out, a big if, they will already be waiting for the ACC Championship Game. Win or Lose at Houston, Louisville will still play the best of the coastal for The ACC crown.

Worse case it's Louisville, with one loss to Houston a play-off team, as champion of The ACC.

It's along way to Nov. 17 for both Louisville and Houston. Lets see what happens when we get there.
CJ

(09-20-2016 09:41 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Don't count out SDSU. If Cal wins the PAC-12, an undefeated SDSU with a legit Heisman contender has an argument for being in the playoff. Not saying it's a great argument given the rest of their schedule (they don't play Boise or Air Force), but it could happen.

Even though you are not a Cal fan, this post qualifies you for the title of Most Optimistic Cal Fan Ever.

(09-20-2016 10:24 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  This opinion probably won't be popular, and may turn out to be flat wrong, but:

Neither Greg Ward Jr or Lamar Jackson are NFL QB's. They're successful at QB in college because they're faster than almost everyone on the defenses they face. And they can throw the ball OK. So they get in a bunch of empty set, spread the defense out, and can outrun the defenders and now and then hand off or throw a route.

In the NFL they won't be faster than the defense. The spread isn't a legitimate NFL offense. And they don't throw it well enough to be NFL QB's.


$0.02

That why Jackson went to Louisville...to learn to be a NFL QB under Petrino...gotta realize...he didn't learn to take snaps under center and the mesh points until last year Bowl Prep-(didn't do it in HS)...has the arm talent but still extremely raw...still has the rest of this year and next Spring/Fall to improve in those areas and he has the coach to teach him.

(09-20-2016 12:06 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I don't see it as a play-in game for Louisville because the Big 12 is not very good this year.

Louisville finishes its ACC schedule before it plays Houston. If Louisville wins out, a big if, they will already be waiting for the ACC Championship Game. Win or Lose at Houston, Louisville will still play the best of the coastal for The ACC crown.

Worse case it's Louisville, with one loss to Houston a play-off team, as champion of The ACC.

It's along way to Nov. 17 for both Louisville and Houston. Lets see what happens when we get there.
CJ

CJ as you know....most of us are just worried about getting past Marshall...One Game at a Time.

Louisville vs Houston is so late in the season that I have to think the loser is out of the playoffs.

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(09-20-2016 12:37 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-20-2016 12:06 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I don't see it as a play-in game for Louisville because the Big 12 is not very good this year.

Louisville finishes its ACC schedule before it plays Houston. If Louisville wins out, a big if, they will already be waiting for the ACC Championship Game. Win or Lose at Houston, Louisville will still play the best of the coastal for The ACC crown.

Worse case it's Louisville, with one loss to Houston a play-off team, as champion of The ACC.

It's along way to Nov. 17 for both Louisville and Houston. Lets see what happens when we get there.
CJ

CJ as you know....most of us are just worried about getting past Marshall...One Game at a Time.

No doubt
I am worried about this one.
Marshall, scheduled between FSU and Clemson is a textbook example of a trap game.
CJ

(09-20-2016 12:43 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Louisville vs Houston is so late in the season that I have to think the loser is out of the playoffs.

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If Louisville was 12-1 with only a loss to Houston, have to think they would still have a very good shot. I mean, you'd have SEC champion, Big Ten champion pretty safely in. I think the big question holding Louisville back would be what the champion of the Pac 12 looks like. If it's a 12-1 Stanford, I think there's a real good shot that Louisville gets in over them.

Pro Football Focus on Lamar Jackson...he is also the Cover on this Week Sports Illustrated....For those that don't know PFF is purely analytical...

1. Lamar Jackson, Louisville Cardinals
Jackson has been nearly unstoppable as a runner, averaging 10.3 yards per carry, including an absurd 5.87 yards per rush after contact, forcing 16 missed tackles and scoring 10 touchdowns. But what’s most impressive is Jackson’s improvement as a passer – he currently ranks 18th in passing grade after ranking 130th of 157 last year. He has been most effective on throws between 10 and 19 yards downfield, completing 14 of 18 for 289 yards.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/college...op-10-qbs/

(09-20-2016 09:42 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(09-19-2016 09:05 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-19-2016 08:54 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Sure if both are somehow undefeated at the time, but that's a gigantic if on both sides. Louisville has to get by Clemson and the AAC is not gonna be easy for Houston.

Louisville has to get by Clemson yes.

But look at the AAC schedule for Houston...
UConn
@ Navy
Tulsa
@ SMU
UCF
Tulane

They miss out on 2 of the 3 best teams in the east. Memphis is the week after Louisville.

Houston with a 36.5% chance of going undefeated heading into the game. Every game except for Navy with a 80% chance of winning at least. They leave Texas once before the Louisville game.

Louisville with a 42.1% chance of going undefeated heading into the Houston game. And that's with Clemson being a 55.3% chance. Every other game a 90% chance.

So, if Houston has a 36.5% chance of being undefeated, does that mean they have a 63.5% chance of losing to somebody they are supposed to beat? And who comes up with these %ages anyway? Does he get it by examining goat entrails or something?

Computer models.

Assume (for simplicity's sake) that we're a 90% favorite in the rest of our games, the odds of us going 13-0 at this point in time would be,

.90^10 = 34.86%.

Even if you're a massive favorite in all of your games, the odds of going undefeated over the course of a season are still relatively low. You have to fade the odds of an upset for 13 consecutive weeks in a row -- hard to do, and that's what makes college football so awesome. 1 off night and it's over, and odds are that 1 off night is going to happen.

ACC Champ and SEC champ and B1G champ look to be locks records equal. So it comes down to Pac 12 and Go5. Big 12 is pretty much out of the mix barring some undefeated run and some help elsewhere.

I think Houston will be a lock if they run it, but I don't see how a one loss Pac 12 is not going to have a very strong argument over everybody else. Knowing Houston, they probably blow the Memphis game after beating UL.

A one loss PAC 12 champ of either Stanford or Washington team could easily make the playoff.

(09-20-2016 03:45 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  ACC Champ and SEC champ and B1G champ look to be locks records equal. So it comes down to Pac 12 and Go5. Big 12 is pretty much out of the mix barring some undefeated run and some help elsewhere.

I think Houston will be a lock if they run it, but I don't see how a one loss Pac 12 is not going to have a very strong argument over everybody else. Knowing Houston, they probably blow the Memphis game after beating UL.

Knowing Houston, they'll fall to SMU or Tulsa. Random losses is a historical norm.

(09-20-2016 01:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-20-2016 12:43 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Louisville vs Houston is so late in the season that I have to think the loser is out of the playoffs.

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If Louisville was 12-1 with only a loss to Houston, have to think they would still have a very good shot. I mean, you'd have SEC champion, Big Ten champion pretty safely in. I think the big question holding Louisville back would be what the champion of the Pac 12 looks like. If it's a 12-1 Stanford, I think there's a real good shot that Louisville gets in over them.

I don't think the loser of Louisville-Houston will be in the playoffs, even if loser (or both) goes 12-1. Too late in season and CFP wouldn't want a potential rematch.

There's no scenario in which UH can make the playoffs unless every team in the majors loses 3 or more games.

(09-24-2016 04:53 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  There's no scenario in which UH can make the playoffs unless every team in the majors loses 3 or more games.

There is a scenario where UL could finish 12-1 and win the ACC, OU could finish 10-2 and win the Big 12, and UH could finish 13-0 and have a claim that they beat TWO P5 conference champs. They can't put a team in over a team they lost more games than AND lost to head to head to.

If anyone can, it's the biased playoff committee. They would just say that OU game was at the beginning of the year and not as relevant as the conference games.